I’ve been thinking about this for a bit, and I thought I’d throw it out there for some reaction.
Here’s why I think Alex will sign the extension. First off, I believe the Yankees will go $20 million or so higher than their current offer. Boras has made his stand, and now the Yankees are going to come in lower, and they’ll meet somewhere between.
Anyway, say A-Rod opts out. Everyone will know how much the Yankees offered. If he can’t secure an offer of that magnitude on the open market, it would be a nightmare for Team Boras. Say, after all is said and done, the Yankees make their best offer of a six-year extension at $30 million average annual value (as opposed to the five years and $28 mil and change under the current reported scenario). A-Rod hits the open market, and all he can get is eight years, $250 million. So he’d be taking $30 million less than the Yankees offered.
I believe Boras knows the market. I also believes that he knows his clients stands to make the most money from the Yankees. He won’t let Alex opt out if there’s a chance that no team bids as high as the Yanks. That would be PR nightmare.
Either way, if A-Rod signs an extension, it will be hours before his opt-out deadline. That’s just the way Boras works. I also think that he’ll have a hard time opting out with the Yankees’ offer on the table.