They need A-Rod (along with Jeter) to prevent a riot in NY. Plus, A-Rod is one of the biggest businessmen in baseball & unless he went to Boston (who would be much better off resigning Lowell) or LA, he would run the risk of losing out on his endorsments due to the change of locations. He needs a BIG market team to draw in those BIG $$$ endorsements.

The Yankees would be well served by avoiding A-Rod’s opt-out clause by regetotiating his deal (& hitting up Tom Hicks for more cash: which will serve him right for negotiatig that deal) for the extra 7 years & increase his salary to $30K+ starting in 2008 (if that’s possible, if not, then after the remaining years left on the current contract). They just can’t afford NOT to do this with the direction the team is going!

Second of all, there are no sure things in FA contracts — even if they are only for three years. An injury can end anyone’s career tomorrow. Having said that, A-Rod is the closest thing to a sure thing long-term contract you will ever see. Consider that:

He has played at least 154 games for each of the last seven seasons, his skills may still be improving at age 32.

He is built like an NFL QB, and has no history of knee or shoulder problems.

He hits for power and average.

More importantly, in the sixth, seventh or eighth year of any deal (depending what his power stats look like for the next five) he will be chasing down the MLB HR record — which means his drawing power alone will make his contract worth it at that point.

I would give A-Rod 7x$32MM…and not even fret over it.

My prediction: the Yanks sign him for 6-7 years at around 35 million annually, but front-load it to some degree.

the Yankees spent $40M to get NOTHING out of Giambi, Farnsworth, Pavano, and Igawa this year and were crippled all the way into the playoffs. they spent $26M on Igawa’s posting fee which was like throwing $26M in the trash. and they are still alive and kicking.

i would guess that in 10 years, $30M will be a similar percentage of their payroll than that $40M is now.

also, he’s not going to sign for 10 years. not one single player has signed a 10 year deal since A-Rod and Jeter did 7 years ago. A-Rod is not going to get another one at age 32.

I’d love to see him stay but I’d prefer overpaying by upping the remaining 3 years and extending another 3 at a high price. Boras won’t go for that but I don’t recommend resigning him if it’s going to cripple the team longterm.

I don’t know if there’ll even be a luxury tax whenever the next Player’s agreement is reached but it’s going to hurt down the line.

It’s basically a big game of poker, like all negotiations: does Boras believe that the Yanks really won’t bid if his client opts out? And does he also believe that OTHER GMs believe it? If other GMs believe the Yankees are bluffing and will swoop in at the last minute with a big bid if ARod does opt out, then they might be more likely to offer the big money to hedge their bets. But that seems like a big gamble to make with that much money on the line – if Boras incorrectly calls the Yanks’ bluff, it could cost him millions.

Basically, by threatening not to bid on ARod if he opts out, the Yanks are leveraging their ability to singlehandedly change the market: “If you opt out, you’re taking the single highest bidder out of the equation.” It’s a smart tactic on their part.