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Follow us on TwitterThe asking price for Miguel Cabrera (or Filling the 3b hole, part 2 of many)
Posted by: Ben K. in Hot Stove LeagueWe can apparently debate the Yankees’ third base hole for 118 comments worth of thoughts. Ample pixels were burned on Monday discussing Miguel Cabrera. So let’s get started on him.
Baseball Prospectus’ Will Carroll reports that Cabrera is on the open market. Here’s what Will writes:
One of the team’s big two is gone and everyone’s expecting it to be Miguel Cabrera. “He’s at the end of his time at 3B,” the baseball source told me, “but he’s still good enough to play 1B. They won’t get quite as much as [Jon Daniels] did for Mark Teixeira, but they’re looking for a different payoff.” The rumored asking price is three players - one pitcher and position player that are under three years of service time and “solid ink-’em-in guys.” The other would be a “plus prospect, not the best guy on the team, but useful. The Marlins will probably look for a slugger.”
At the same time, Tyler Kepner of The Times reports, well, a few things. First, we hear that Yankees Manager Joe Girardi is a big fan of Cabrera’s. Says Joe of the 24-year-old slugger, ““He’s a great player, a smart player. He really understands the game of baseball. I was impressed in how mature he was as a hitter at a young age, his approach on a daily basis. I did not have any problems with him. He worked hard for me.”
Next up, we hear a similar asking price. According to Kepner’s sources, the Marlins want a center fielder and one or two top-tier pitchers. In other words, the Marlins want to turn Cabrera into the same package they got from the Red Sox from Josh Beckett. Instead of Hanley Ramirez as the centerpiece and Anibal Sanchez as the very good other piece, the Yanks would be trading a stellar pitcher and a very good other piece.
So now we know that if the Yanks pick up Cabrera, it would be, in all likelihood, as a first baseman. I can live with that. The Yanks got meager production from first base last year. Combined, their first basemen hit .284/.350/.419 with 16 home runs. Miguel Cabrera wails on those numbers. I’d take him at first base for the next ten years.
And with that in mind, we can now debate the package. While Brian Cashman says he would rather not trade Phil, Joba or IPK, it would take one of these guys to land Cabrera. The package would probably focus around one of the Yanks’ pitchers, Melky Cabrera, and a lesser pitching prospect, of which the Yanks have plenty right now.
I have, in the past, repeatedly spoken about my thoughts on Melky. I think, defense aside, he is very expendable, especially if the Yanks can get a bat of Miguel Cabrera’s caliber in return. Melky’s a fine defensive center fielder who often looks lost at the plate. The Yanks have a few good outfielder prospects who are simply better than Melky and have much higher ceilings. With two solid-but-not-spectacular seasons of MLB experience under his belt, Melky is the very definition of trade bait and would fill a hole the Marlins have tried to fill for a few seasons now.
Would you pull the trigger on this deal? As unpopular as trading Melky and IPK (along with a lesser prospect) could make me, I probably would. Let the debate begin.
Popularity: 3% [?]
I might be way too optimistic here, but this brings me back to Eric Duncan. Move him back to third, envision a future with Duncan and Cabrera at the corners. If the Marlins don’t bite, throw in Steven White. I would do this trade, too, under the condition that the Yankees do all their “homework” on making sure MiggyCabs is ready to play for the next 10 years.
One last note: Cabrera could play third this year, move to first in 2009 once Giambi is gone (not that this is exactly stopping him from playing first now, mind you), and maybe E.Dunculous will be ready to go in 2009 at third.
I don’t see the Marlins accepting Melky and IPK for Cabrera, but if they did, I would do that in a second. Melky is a solid player and Ian Kennedy should be solid as well, but Cabrera is a spectacular player. I don’t see the Marlins settling for that deal.
They would probably have to throw in one of their relief arms from the farm system as well. But considering the contract situations of all involved, I think the Marlins would certainly be willing to listen to this offer.
If the yanks could somehow land Cabrera for IPk, Melky, and someone else, you HAVE to pull the trigger and be thrilled. Cabrera would be a top 3 1B, and both Melky and IPK might just be at their highest in terms of tradeability. With Damon still around, Gardner ready probably for a mid season call up to spell Damon, and others on the way, Melky is expendable. IPK is a bit more complicated with the Andy situation. If he resigns, its a no brainer. If not, then IPK is far more valuable to the Yanks than he should be. On the other hand, if there is one thing the Yanks have right now, its warm pitching bodies to throw out there.
However, I doubt the Marlins would settle for that. i am sure they will ask the world of the Yanks and then settle for Crisp and Lester from the Sox…Ditto Santana from the Twins…
I’d have a hard time trading kennedy. Melky I could part with and any other prospect but the 3. It could just be me but trading one of the 3 “kids” seems foolish in the long run.
No doubt about this move. I’m a fan of any scenario in which the Yanks could land Cabrera without giving up Joba or Hughes. I know that there are a lot of IPK supporters around, but, while I was impressed by his performance last year, I can’t see justifying holding up a trade for Miggy to hang on to him.
I don’t have a problem with moving Cabrera to first. The Yanks need to make up A-Rod’s production in the line-up, it doesn’t really matter where that production is coming from. If the Yanks can get Cabrera’s bat then they could afford to take a chance on a less glamorous option at third, like Crede or Duncan.
yes — they should have made this deal for texeria
I’m still saying Melky and Wang. You just know so much more about CMW than any of the young three. It’s a risky trade only in that it leaves them completely open next year, but I see it as taking one step back to take three steps forward. And if the pitching matures more quickly than expected, they’re right in the thick of things. Indeed, I could easily see Joba, Hughes, and Kennedy all winning 15 games next year. Moose as the old man wins ten. Then they just need to cobble together innings from Karstens, Rasner, and Igawa. Heck, sign Glavine or Livan to a one year deal.
This way they avoid giving up a potential #1 and FLA gets a proven pitcher and CF, and both with at least three years of controlled time (4 in Melky’s case). Wang just seems more expendable. He’ll give you very good innings for the most part, but we’ve seen he’s not close to the lights out post-season starter they need. But this is a ballsy trade I can’t t see them making because it opens them up to “rebuilding” criticism.
And I like Cabrera at 3b for 2008 too. Then when Giambi is gone it opens up 1B or if he finds conditioning he could remain at 3B.
BTW: How’s this for a lineup?
Damon (L) - LF
Jeter (R) - SS
Abreu (L) - RF
Cabrera (R) - 3B
Giambi (L) - 1B
Matsui (L) - DH
Jorge (S) - C
Cano (L) - 2B
Gardner (L) - CF
And if Ajax is ready mid-season, he’s another RH bat and could platoon with Gardner. Give Duncan and Betemit some starts against LHP and I’d say that’s a team that gets 90 wins on offense alone. Indeed, that’s a 1000 run lineup especially if Giambi bounces back with a 2005-like contract year. At the very least they’ll be entertaining and all without giving up the young pitching.
Or even better, as NoMaas suggests, sign Andruw to a one year deal, if possible.
If Ajax is ready mid-season? Step away from the crack pipe…
A-Jax should start the season at AA. I wouldn’t bet money on him getting any major league at bats next year, but it wouldn’t shock me. If anyone had said at this time last year that Joba could have served as our set up man and that Kennedy would pitch a couple of games down the stretch I would have laughed him off the board.
Melky for Gagne’ = stupid. Melky for Miggy = genius. I would move Melk, IPK and whatever mid-level pitcher for a 24 year old monster hitter.
Mike and the Mad Dog said maybe the Yanks could get the Marlins to throw Willis in the deal too with the right mix of prospects.
DIdnt read all the comment so i dont no if this was mentioned, but id be willing to go melky, wang, tabata for cabrera, willis, and a bullpen pitcher
Teams that have so many holes to fill, such as the Marlins and Rays, shouldn’t need that one top prospect in return but, rather, several parts that are going to go out there and do the job. I honestly don’t even see why the pitcher has to be Kennedy when the Yanks can throw in three guys from the farm system that, while not upper-tier prospects, could go in there and help either team compete now.
That being said, sure, I’d do IPK, Melky, and Steven White for Migs, but IPK is the absolute highest i’m willing to go pitchingwise in ANY trade.
Mike and the Mad Dog are idiots. They wouldn’t throw in Willis and the Yankees wouldn’t want him.
i think its already been said, but if the Marlins accepted Melky, IPK, and a prospect for Miggy, i’d pull the trigger in a heartbeat.
First or Third, or DH him down the road if it dcomes to that, this kid is one of the best pure hitters in the game.
i know Andy Phillips played a little bit around the IF down as a part of his minor league career. anybody know what he did at the hot corner? we know he can handle first defensively, but if Miggy was shifted to 1B, can Phillips handle 3B? I would think he could if it came to that, at least enough to platoon him and Betemit, right?
Melky, IPK, and someone else not named Phil or Joba? 8 days a week. Dude’s most comparable player is Hank Aaron!!!
The complexity lies in that you are essentially paying him to play first base (1 year at third maybe) when we can get Teixeira as a Free Agent next year and not have to give up any prospects. Is it worth it?
We don’t have to give up prospects if we change our stance and negotiate with the best player on the planet.
That is true, but we’d lose credibility. It opens a whole can of worms that I would rather not deal with.
I understand the credibility issue, i do. But…couldn’t they just look at any future free agent and say, “Well…when you win 2 MVP’s in 3 years, we might crack in negotiations too.” I seem to have this dreaded feeling of cutting off our nose to spite our face. I mean the 21 mil we lost from Texas is almost offset per year by not having Torre. It’s just…we don’t have to mortgage our future player-wise to fill a gaping need. It’s only $…and the Yankees have plenty. Hell, they’re gonna raise ticket prices anyway, we might as well see them spend it on A-Rod.
I’d do Hughes and Melky for Miggy - if Cashman can get them to take IPK instead of Hughes he deserves a medal.
I think if the Yanks lose Melky (who people here still criticise for being lost at the plate - wtf does that mean? - everyone looks lost at times and Melk’s biggest problem the last two years is running out of steam at the end of the year - he’ll probably out grow out of that), I’d like to see the Yanks try to get Chone Figgins for CF and or give Gardner a real shot. Lets stop worrying about power offense at every position.
I’m going to miss Melk’s arm and D - and everyone here might realize how big a factor that is\was, but Miguel Cabrera at 24 - even as a 1B\DH\LF (ala Manny) could be the missing piece that brings us back to the WS - provided our young pitching comes through.
If Hughes has to go in the deal, a flier on WIllis in a megadeal (as far fetched as that may be) could be one stop shopping for the Yanks.
I also think that a three way deal involving Wang - trading Wang for another piece the Marlins might want is something I’m sure Cash is considering (again, possibly far fetched).
I for one think Cabrera will be fine at third. Hopefully playing for a contender can help him stay in shape, but personally I think many of the fat jokes + comments are overstated.
When someone of his caliber is available, you have to go for it. I really like Melky, and would love to keep him, but I keep hearing about AJax. If we could get Miguel Cabrera for Melky and one of the pitching prospects (IPK I’d rather keep, but hasn’t everyone said Horne is going to be better?), would be amazing.
Not only is it a big step for the youth movement, as Cabrera is just shy of 25, but as others have said, he’s putting up A-Rod type numbers.
In addition, with the loss of Melky, I’d still be (I guess I’m one of the few advocates…) of going after Torii Hunter. I don’t want Rowand, and I’d take Jones ahead of him, but his dip in offensive production has me concerned. Still, either one would be fine, especially if Jones wants a shorter contract.
The problem with Hunter of course is going to be his long-term deal (4-5 years), but hopefully Cashman could finagle a team option in Y4 or 5. Still, he’s a great character guy, one hell of a fielder, and a great bat. In addition, most of the *big* DH contracts will be gone by the time he’s going to be moved to the DH spot, since Giambi, Damon, Matsui, and Posada should all be moved on to greener (?) pastures, leaving only Jeet to play the DH role. And who knows about that…
Having Hunter at DH would free the outfield in the 2010’s - now composed of Tabata, AJax, and Gardner (insert other prospect/trade here) - which would be very nice, imho.
I was against the Miggy trade if it involved Hughes but if we could do Melky, IPK and someone like Marguez I would do that. You bring Miguel into Cashman’s office and let him know that if he keeps himself in shape then he can make a lot of money and be very popular on the Yanks. Before you bring him into NYC you gotta give him some incentive to stay slim.
You let him play third this season and if his defense keeps slipping you move him over to first or DH or LF in the future.
Melky is nice but we could snag Andruw Jones on a 1 year deal, or even call up Brett Gardner and our team would be better. Imagine a lineup of:
Damon LF
Jeter SS
Abreu RF
Cabrera 3B
Jones CF
Matsui DH
Cano 2B
Giambi 1B
Posada C
That is ridiculously deep and balanced with righty and lefty power
That lineup would be even better if we could dump Damon and/or Giambi, and get someone like Chone Figgins in there to lead off.
It’s not happening. Nobody wants Giambi, and the Angels would want more than Damon and Cash for Figgins.
For those who say Melky is “lost” at the plate, hasn’t there been a few stories regarding his production, and how it is better than Bernie Williams’ at their same ages?
I too would really miss Melky, but not as much as when Miguel fires a shot over the wall.
I am a bit concerned about Willis, however. I’m not sure how well he’d transfer to the AL, although I’d still take him. Probably be our 3rd starter, no?
Pettitte
Wang
Willis
Hughes
Chamberlain/Kennedy
Unless, of course, Wang would have to be in on the deal to get Willis…which I wouldn’t do.
LBA,
There’s no bigger Melky fan than me, and I’d like to see him stay - he only gets traded IMHO if we can bring in a young proven super star like Miggy.
The boys here who run this great site are a bit blinded by their overemphasis on offensive stats - they also seem to appreciate power offense. Melk was hitting close to .300 at the end of Aug and his OBP was around .350 - all this after a lousy start thanks to sporadic playing time.
In most situational stats, Melk had better #’s than Matsui - he’s still a work in progress
I really don’t know if Melky is closer to Bobby Kelly vs. Bernie, but what I can tell you after watching the Yanks for over 30 years is that Melky is probably in the top 3 of defensive ofers I’ve seen in a Yanks uniform.
Also, I love the way he sprays the ball and we got to see him use his legs and + base running ability this year.
He’s a guy with some upside - its also interesting to see no one mentions how he waited on that hanging breaking pitch from Carmona in the ALDS - Didn’t look lost to me ;-). Throwing out the runner at home was a nice touch as well.
If we lose Melk, I’d like to replace him with Brett Gardner - if Gardner can play +D, steal 30+ and get on at a +360 clip, we could be a much tougher team.
Figgins would give us alot too, but I don’t think his arm is anything more than avg in CF - could be wrong.
Why do people still believe that Willis is any good? The guy put up a 5.07 ERA last year in the NL East. He would be a disaster in the AL East.
If Willis doesn’t cost you much more in a deal, why not? At worst you try to convert him into a reliever.
In 06 he looked great against the Yanks and Sox - showed poise and guts.
I do agree that, right now, Willis is not a guy you give up much for.
We are on the same page then. I just don’t think that the Marlins would include Willis in a trade as a throw in. He is still the face of that franchise. I doubt he gets traded because I don’t think anyone give Florida what they think he is worth.
Mike,
I kinda agree on your point with the Marlins not wanting to just “throw-in” Willis. But, I think if a mega trade was made, Loria would spin it as to get Hughes + Horne, Melky and Tabata (those 4 guys as an example) that he “had to give up Willis.
So in essense, we could probably swap Horne for Willis.
I think Loria would do a deal like this not only to save $ (we know how he ‘loves’ that), but for the reason you mentioned - maybe Willis is going to be mediocre from here on out.
Alot has been made of WIllis’s violent motion and who knows maybe his decline is due to that and or stricter pe testing, poor conditioning - who knows?
What I do like is that GIrardi should have some inside info on Willis, so if the Yanks were to give up something as significant as Hughes, I’d feel pretty good that they had alot of info and analyzed it well.
No guarantees and pie in the sky.
I also think the Marlins have some pretty great young players that will take over as face of the franchise.
Plus, when you draw 700-800 fans a year, the face of the franchise isn’t what its cracked up to be
Getting Willis for Horne and/or Hughes is not a good deal. Dontrelle Willis hasn’t been an effective NL pitcher in a huge pitcher’s park since 2005. Despite a low ERA in 2006, he was terrible at keeping runners off base, and it’s likely he would get creamed in the AL. Why give up players we don’t have to include for a pitcher we don’t really want?
Ben,
Why give up players for guys we don’t really want? To get Miguel Cabrera and an potentially undervalued Dontrelle (so, speaking solely for myself, I wan’t Dontrelle, but at a certain price).
Hughes is the main piece I think that will be needed to get Miguel Cabrera - I also think it takes Melky and another prospect, my point is if you are going to create a hole in the rotation by losing Hughes - to swap in the same deal Horne for Willis might be worth it.
Willis could have had a bad year, could be done, I don’t know, but he’s still young and lefty and probably has value - maybe as an 8th inning guy - and we need one of those.
I have to agree with the majority of people that I would do a deal in a heartbeat that focuses around IPK and Melky. I think IPK is going to be a great pitcher someday but you have to give talent to get talent. Melky I love currently but many people much smarter then me in the ways of baseball have noted that he isn’t a true center fielder and as he grows older his body type is more likely to leave him as a +D right or left fielder. While that is great, Melky doesn’t have the bat to be a right or left fielder for a powerhouse team. I’m not sure who the third player I would want throw in on that deal would be. One of the relievers wouldn’t bother me or a triple-A arm that is doubtful to get a chance to play for the yankees some day.
but the question is, is there anyone down in south florida who is actually paying attention, and cares about the face of the franchise?
can they really alienate any more people down there than they already have?
it’s not like people are swarming to the ballpark to watch him pitch anymore.
the way i look at it, its kind of a reverse trade from what the saux made a couple years ago… then, it was Beckett who was the jewel, but you had to take Lowell’s contract to make it work financially for the fins.
this year, Cabrera is now the stud piece in the trade, but if the Marlins are going to clean house, then you’ve gotta take Willis’s bloated contract, too.
I agree with Greg’s previous post . I don’t think that the Marlins take that deal. They would want more than IPK/Melky/Unnamed prospect. The fact that most people here have stated that they would make that deal in a heartbeat if they were the Yankees pretty much proves that it is a bit lopsided.
I still want to see the Yankees put pitching first. I would rather see this kind of push to try and land Santana.
all that being said, i still think both teams out in LA match up better with positional prospects than the Yankees do with the Marlins, and if the Dodgers or Angels get involved, they have the upper hand in any trade for Willis and Cabrera if they want them.
Keith is right. If you are the Marlins do you take the package revolving around IPK and Melky or the one with Loney or Kershaw and Kemp?
So we all know how Melky is with the bat, and he has a plus arm in center, but is his defense really good? Yea, he has range, but sometimes he looks lost. The fielding bibles +/- system doesn’t like his defense at all, and I’m a pretty big fan of that defensive rating system:
http://www.billjamesonline.net.....rs2-07.gif
Melky is the perfect trading chip.
Though to be honest, just looking at organizational needs, I think we have a better chance trading for Johan and giving up less major prospects than we do trading for Miguel Cabrera.
The Twins don’t really need star players in return, they already have a solid star core. What they need are multiple cheap warm bodies that can give average production for years to come on the cheap. Melky and Shelly would be worth far more to them than almost any other team. Not saying that’s the entire package, but add in a Humberto or IPK and you might actually have a deal there, especially considering it’s only one year of Johan.
The question then becomes do we want the star 29yo LHP or the star 24yo position player. Great pitchers are more valuable than hitters, but they are also far less consistent. Looking long term we also have less of a need for pitching.
So who would you rather have, Miguel or Johan?
Two words:
Jo Han
Perhaps I am putting too much emphasis on relationships, but wouldn’t sending Melky away absolutely destroy Cano? This could be like losing two bats in the lineup once Robbie starts sulking for an entire season because his best friend is gone.
I have always been a Melky supporter, mostly because of the idea that a homegrown, speedy, likable guy is out in centerfield again (Bernie). I would be much more upset to see him go than I would IPK, who I really like but I feel could be expendable if it is the major piece in getting a superstar.
Also, I realize that I haven’t paid too much attention to him, but is the general consensus that Brett Gardner will be ready to play everyday in this Yankee lineup later in ‘08? I just thought that I would have heard more about him by now.
I also thought about that relationship, but don’t underestimate the importance of IPK and Joba’s relationship as well. Those guys have been together every step of the way. I don’t think that Joba would sulk necesarily, but I do think that Ian’s presence could help boost Joba’s develpoment.
CJB,
Here’s Gardners stats for 07:
AA .300/.392/.419
AAA .260/.343/.331 - 21 sb 3 cs
AFL .349/.409/.398 14/1 sb/cs
If he’s not ready, he’s close - it looks like at 24, he’s never going to develop power so I’m not sure what another full year in AAA does for him.
it looks like at 24, he’s never going to develop power
This applies to Melky as well…
Ben,
It might also apply to Melky (not developing power) but Melk is almost 1 year younger with 2 years in the bigs.
Also, Melk slugged .566 in Columbus in 2006 and hit 10 HR’s in Trenton in 05 when he was 20 (slg only .411) - Gardner has never shown anything close at those levels - although his slg at Trenton was .420 in his last stint he had 0 HR’s in 420 AB’s.
All that aside, I don’t care about HR’s from my cfer if I get Melky like defense, and I haven’t seen Gardner play, but from what I read here, his arm is not as good as Melk’s, but if Melk goes, I’d love to see what he could do and let others overpay for Jones\Hunter\Rowand and most likely Cameron.