Yanks, Twins talkin’ Santana

BP: How many years are too many?
Quick Mark Melancon notes

The Twins and Yanks have entered into preliminary talks on Johan Santana. In the words of Hank, it’s too early to tell if a deal will be made, but the two sides have begun the dance. I just hope don’t see another top prospect shipped off in a bad trade.

BP: How many years are too many?
Quick Mark Melancon notes
  • http://mvn.com/milb-yankees Eric Schultz

    When was the last time Cashman shipped off a top prospect in a bad trade?

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Ben K.

      Cashman is not necessarily guilty of it, but we’ve seen it happen time after time. Nick Johnson + Juan Rivera for Javier Vazquez comes to mind. The Randy Johnson deal included top prospects, and that wasn’t as much of a winner as the Yanks hoped. Of course, the Yanks’ top prospects are now much better than they were, and part of the allure of holding a lot of prospects is trading them because they won’t pan out. But we know what the Yanks’ pitchers can do; we’ve seen Hughes, Kennedy and Chamberlina. I don’t want to part with any of them.

      • Stephen

        I think the Johnson trade is an example of why teams should not be inclined to horde up young prospects. I realize that Johnson was a dissappointment in New York, but it’s not like Halsey and Navarro have really burst on to the scene. I realize that current Yankee prospects are more highly regarded, and I’m certainly not saying that Cash should trade away the farm, but I do want to caution people from falling in love with the concept of youth for youth’s sake.

    • Miles Roche

      I firmly believe that Bill Smith is more desperate to trade Santana than many people think, and if Cashman and Epstein will hold steadfast with their young talent (and i believe they will), Smith will have no choice but to lower the asking price. So put your fears aside, people…

  • Mike R.

    If the Boss were still in charge we would have already sent over the big three, Cano, Melky and cash. I trust Cash.

  • http://mybaseballbias.com JMM

    Even though the Twins have reportedly asked for Hughes in any deal, I still don’t think the Yankees will pull the trigger. If it’s Ian Kennedy, Cabrera, Jackson and Marquez, I think a deal could get done. But the Twins will probably insist on Hughes or Chamberlain.

  • http://mvn.com/milb-yankees Eric Schultz

    Dunno if this is for real but a commenter on Pete Abe’s blog says that a deal has been made, Kennedy, Melky, Horne and Gardner. Cites ESPN deportes though I couldn’t find anything there.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Ben K.

      Quick glance at ESPN Deportes’ site doesn’t reveal anything. My guess is that someone is just lost in translation. The Deportes’ report probably cites Kennedy/Melky/Horne/Gardner as the initial Yankee offer. Considering what some have said about Horne and what we’ve seen from Kennedy, that’s quite a package. I’m not sure how that deal would really make the Yanks better.

      • dan

        The guy who posted the original rumor just posted again saying “Yankee fans are so gullible.” (Julio and Julio 2)

  • http://mvn.com/milb-yankees Eric Schultz

    Probably just pulling our leg.

  • LiveFromNewYork

    Must keeps: Hughes, Joba, Cano and Ajax. Anything else I could live with.

    • http://yankeesetc.blogspot.com/ Travis G.

      i would add Tabata, Betances and Montero to that.

  • Barry

    I honestly would give up Wang way before either Hughes or Kennedy.

    • http://lbaprequel.lobitowebsite.com/ LBA Prequel

      Thank God you aren’t in charge then. Shipping off Wang, a proven top-end of the rotation MLB pitcher and AL Cy Young candidate, instead of two prospects, one of whom with a high ceiling and the other who is being touted for more posture than anything else, is completely absurd.

      I don’t want to give up the farm either, but please. If they want Ian Kennedy in a trade for Johan Santana, they can have him and a bag of chips. No way I deal Wang over Kennedy.

  • Ricochet

    IMO Santana is the best pitcher in the game and a lefty, something the Yanks are in dire need for but that said Cano, Hughes and Joba better not be going anywhere. Tabata isn’t that class but I don’t want him to go in that deal either but it wouldn’t be a deal breaker come the last second.

    I’m a Kennedy fan but if it were up to me I would only deal him for a stud, not just a very good player but a player thats on the road to be a HoF’er and IMO Santana falls into that category.

    Plus as much as I like him I think having 3 rookies is too much for a rotation thats trying to win it all, don’t underestimate having veterans around to take player under there wing even if the pupil is much more talented.

    So if they can get a deal done that doesn’t cost Hughes and Joba then I have no problem trading Kennedy and Horne and some others because the Yanks would have a rotation that included Santana, Wang, Hughes and Joba and IMO it doesn’t get much better than that. That would leave 1 spot in the rotation and I would love to have it be Pettitte to fill that void in ’08 and hopefully beyond that but even if it’s just for ’08 or not at all come the 2009 season instead of Kennedy or Horne the Yankees fill that final spot in the rotation with Humberto Sanchez.

    I would trade them a CF whether it’s Melky or Jackson, but not both.

    They have a need for 3rd base and while he’s not a big piece of the puzzle trade wise I would deal them Wilson Betemit. I think if he ever gets 500+ AB’s he could be a .260 to .270 hitter with 30+ HR’s. Thats a lot better than they have now and they don’t have any quality 3rd base prospects to bring up.

    In such a deal I would send them a very good hitter that could play for the Yankees but they don’t need another DH in Cuban defector Juan Miranda.

  • Brian

    This is sort of scary, but as Mike R. put it: in Cash we trust. I think Horne, Kennedy, and Cabrera might be my vote. Forget Flash Gardner, Deportes!

  • JP

    Is it just me has it seemed like Cashman is taking a back seat in all the trade talks? Maybe it’s just because I live out west but I haven’t heard much from Cashman ever since Hank came to power. I trust that Cash won’t trade the farm but if Hank is trying to call the shots it scares the hell out of me cuz he doesn’t have much of a track record.

  • CB

    The Yankees just need to be patient with this Santana trade and play it like the ARod situation. ARod’s demands far outstripped the market. Santana’s demands may do something similar – because its not just outlandish money – the cost is money and talent.

    Santana wants insane money and very, very few teams can give him that type of deal. If the Twins want to deal him they are going to have to drop their talent request over time. There aren’t going to be many teams that can meet the talent and money dynamics of this trade.

    Teams looking for a pitcher are going to compare a Santana deal with a Dan Haren deal. The money is so astronomically different between them people are going to look very hard at Haren instead.

    A seven year $150 million deal doesn’t sound like something the Red Sox would do never mind giving up Buchholz. The Mets will try but do they have the talent? The Dodgers could but McCourt is a strange owner who really doesn’t like to spend money. Having him go to the National league also wouldn’t be a disaster.

    This deal will be so complicated that the Twins may decide that they just can’t trade Santana because of the bad PR if they can’t get an absolutely overwhelming deal. If the yankees wait and it seems like the twins will pull him off the market and take one last shot with santana/ liriano that’s not the worst thing in the world. They can go after him as a free agent.

    They should just wait and leverage their financial advantage in this situation. They’ve shown a lot of patience over the past couple of years (the abreu deal was a good example). Hopefully that’ll continue. If it’s up to Cash I think it will.

  • dan

    With no real news just yet, how about answering some of Bryan Hoch’s mail?

    • Brian

      my favorite today was someone asking if we could forgo prospects in a deal for Santana by just offering cash.

      • dan

        Yea that’s what made me think of it. And you know what’s funny? These questions are filtered…. they’re the best of the best

  • waswhining

    A Johan Factoid

    Sometimes I hear that Santana has been overused and due for an injury. Not so according to this comparison of innings pitched by 28 years of age:

    Hudson: 1240.7IP
    Santana: 1308.7IP
    Mussina: 1362.3IP
    Martinez: 1576.3IP
    Koufax: 1665.7IP
    Marichal: 1722IP
    Clemens: 1784.3IP
    Palmer: 1866.7IP
    Carlton: 1904.7IP
    Seaver: 1931IP

    Next to Hudson, Santana has the least wear and tear on his arm at the age of 28 and he doesn’t have any injury history either, like the Pedro shoulder or the Hudson hip.

    • dan

      Don’t even bother using guys from pre-1990, they’re a completely different breed. And Pedro did kinda tear his rotator cuff and has had arm issues for a long time.

  • http://www.canyonofheroes.blogspot.com Mike Plugh

    Johan Santana’s ERA+ numbers, VORP, and Win Shares for the last 4 years:

    2004 (182, 89.5, 27)
    2005 (155, 73.0, 23)
    2006 (161, 79.6, 25)
    2007 (130, 57.7, 18)

    Hughes: maybe
    Chamberlain: no
    Kennedy: definitely
    Melky: where do I sign?
    Cano: not on your life
    Tabata: maybe
    Horne: 110% yes
    Marquez: yup.
    Wang: you betcha.

    That’s my take on this. It boils down to Hughes, Melky, and junk for me. Or, Kennedy and a more solid all around package. Otherwise, pass on the pricetag and number of years. It’s doable though. You have to give up value to get value and there may be no better pitcher from the left side than Santana for the next 4 or 5 years.

  • waswhining

    Johan Factoids On Parade:

    I never knew this till I started reading up on Johan: Twinkies brought Santana along very slowly — he’s only been a starter for 4-years — why does it seem like 9 years? In 2007 (his “off” year) he won 15 games, and had an ERA+ of 130; led the league in WHIP; 3rd in H/9; 3rd in K/9; 2nd in K. He was three IP away from being in the top five for innings pitched. One start away from the league leaders 34 starts (eight tied including Andy). Santana ranked 5th in the AL in pitching VORP, just 0.9 points behind Beckett.

    Beckett at his best is the same as Santana’s worst year as a starter. Memorize that last line for Sawks Nation. Gotta pull the trigger on this one, somehow.

    Please, God, don’t make it be Phil Hughes. Horne, Sanchez, Betances. Melancon, Steve White — surely a two-or-three-fer will fit the bill.

  • dan

    Everyone commenting on Johan’s next 5-7 years should read this before they say anything more.


    I don’t know if it will change your opinions, but education is good enough.

  • zack

    I will keep my fingers crossed that the Yanks can somehow work a miracle and get this done without giving up Hughes, Joba, or Cano. Any other package and I am dancing in the streets.

    OMG, can you imagine a rotation next year of:

    That is just beyond sick and makes me giddy beyond words…Please, dear God, make that scenario come true!

  • E-ROC

    I just don’t want to see Mussina in the rotation again this season, unless it’s a spot start against the Royals. Melky, IPK, and Marquez for Santana? Maybe throw in Steven White. I don’t know. I just hope we don’t regret the trade later.

    • Barry

      We’ll all regret it 5 years from now when Santana is a bumb and we want IPK/Hughes back.

  • RollingWave

    Wang isn’t going anywhere.

    a. he’s entering arb years

    b. he’s not nearly as good out of YS, and would probably be even worse in Minn than most places (turf..)

    c. he’s not as good as his W-L says but he is better than what some people give him credit for.

    I would definately put him ahead of Kennedy stuff wise (and it’s really even close) and he’s far more finished and reliable than Hughes and Joba right now. if your going to make a run for it, he is a guy you want, at the lesat he’s going to give you a ton of wins in the regular season and should help in you know.. actually making it and getting home field advantage. while he’s not ideal game 1 starter, few if any teams can say they will throw 4 guys out there that’s better than him.

    I think the deal probably looks like Tabata / Kennedy / Melky , with Horne as a maybe . steep deal, but a lot more sense than Hughes Cano Melky + more more more.

  • LiveFromNewYork

    Have you ever been at a game when Wang is pitching? The Asian press and fans? Intense.

    The Yankees are well aware of their impact on foreign markets and how keeping players like Matsui and Wang in pinstripes helps them acquire in the future and bring in fat cash now. Wang is much more than just a good pitcher to them.

  • Craig

    Wang, Melky, and Horne……

    How many teams can afford Santana??

    Red Sox….Are they going to give Santana 2x as much as Beckett??

    Mets….Can they put together a package similar to Wang, Melky, and Hourne??

    If the Yankees are patient, and the Twins are determined to make a trade, they may be able to do this without giving up Hughes or Joba.

  • TurnTwo

    I can see a package of IPK, Melky, Horne, and AJax.

    for some reason, i keep thinking we might see Scott Patterson turn up somewhere in here, or Melacon, Cox, Robertson, etc… With Nathan in the last year of his deal at the same time, the Twins might forego a second SP prospect for a stud bullpen guy.

    For Cashman, its like playing a game of chicken in which you cant be afraid to lose… sure, the Yanks would liek to have Johan, but if you stand firm, and they dont bite, then you still like your chances with what you’ve got. But, if BC holds, and the new GM blinks, then we could have a very fair deal on our hands.

  • Bo

    Average fans really have to stop crying and whining about prospects you have only read about on blogs and in the papers. Stop thinking they are all gold.

    This is JOHAN SANTANA.

    • TurnTwo


    • Mitchell’s Eleven

      in ’95, you would have had them trade Jeter because, damnit, this is CAL RIPKEN, or something of that sort….

      trading Wang is an absolutely ridiculous idea. you still have the same hole in the rotation, just a better guy at the top for more money.

      i swear…half the blog commenters out there have to be not old enough to remember when we won four championships…

      • Kevin23

        Is that really the voice of reason?

        “This is JOHAN SANTANA”

        It was JASON GIAMBI too. It was ROGER CLEMONS too. It was RANDY JOHNSON too. It was ALEX RODRIGUEZ too.

        How’d those work out for you in October? The Yankees should go back to the business of creating big names…not just buying them. Remember that New York is a special place where some thrive and some sink…even big names. Lets stop betting $20M a pop that we’ve got the answer to that.

        • SG

          Roger Clemens worked out pretty well when we shipped out David Wells + Homer Bush + Graeme Lloyd, a move many were unhappy with at the time. Santana in his prime is that kind of acquisition.

          And, regardless of not winning a title in his 4 years here, A-rod is an upgrade over Alfonso Soriano and Joaquin Arias. That is a trade we make 11 times out of 10 if we pay all of A-Rod’s salary…which we didn’t until he opted out.

          • Kevin23

            Of course, the point is not whether they were, in hindsight, good deals individually. But rather, has that strategy been ultimately successful? So far, its a mixed bag at best. Every off-season in recent memory has earned the Yankees a marquee player either through trade or free-agency. So far, we haven’t won jack. Some deals were utter crap. Some were relatively successful. No one has lit the world on fire. Derek Jeter remains the crowd favorite, and the guy you want at bat in the meaningful situations. When push came to shove, the best pitcher we had last year was a middle reliever.

            Perspective is a lovely thing.

            • SG

              fair enough, but i feel like some were questionable when they were made:

              Pavano – coming off a career year in 2004, one year removed from a 12-13, 4.30 ERA
              RJ – old, balky knee
              Kevin Brown – old, balky back
              Damon – too many years

              A-Rod was a layup. So was Clemens the first go round, coming off back to back Cy Young Awards. They both lit the world on fire. Santana is the best pitcher in the league, and while no one is a sure thing, I think his success is more easily predictable than the prospects we’d be giving up for him.

              In all fairness, Giambi, at the time, was a layup, and that blew up in our face due to “health” issues. Javy Vasquez was a guy I thought would thrive here and did not, but, again, we traded Nick Johnson, Juan Rivera and Randy Choate to get him. Nick Johnson’s terrible luck with injuries withstanding, was the risk not worth it?

              • Kevin23

                I’ve seen guys miss lay-ups even at the highest levels. When you’re talking about 7-10 years and hundreds of millions of dollars, even lay-ups should make you sweat. Recent history is awash with big name pitchers signing big deals only to suck it up or get injured shortly thereafter. We have many of those examples in our own clubhouse. Risk is just as much a factor as reward.

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