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Posted by: Ben K. in Hot Stove League. Tagged: Melky Cabrera, Phil HughesThree stories of note appearing online or in Sunday’s papers:
- Kat O’Brien at Newsday writes that the Yankees are feelin’ pretty good about their chances of landing Johan Santana. The deal, she says, would include Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and a third, lesser prospect.
- Tyler Kepner of The Times notes that the Yanks and Twins are stuck on that third prospect. The Yanks are not willing to part with Dellin Betances, Alan Horne, Austin Jackson, Ian Kennedy or José Tabata, and it seems that the Twins are not so high on Melky Cabrera.
- Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated notes that the Twins have asked specifically for Alan Horne or Austin Jackson. The Yanks will not budget on that issue, and it may become the deal-breaker. Boston does not seem willing to include Clay Buccholz or Jacoby Ellsbury so the Twins will have to decide what they want to do.
Earlier on Saturday, when I was talking about this with my dad, he raised an interesting point. For all of the conversations we’ve been having about this trade, Melky Cabrera has always seemed like a given. But why?
If the Yankees are willing to give up all of Phil Hughes’ pre-free agency years for just one year of Johan Santana — and, really, they’re only getting one year of the lefty from the Twins — why should they then give up Cabrera and another player? We here might not be so high on Melky; the Twins aren’t that high on Melky, it seems. But for now, while Austin Jackson develops, he has a clear role on the team.
With Melky in the trade, the Yankees are simply giving up too much. They shouldn’t need Melky in this deal to complete, and if the Yanks realize that they’re getting one year of Santana and the distinct privilege of a negotiating window in order to pay the lefty too much, they would be wise to pull Melky out of the deal.
Update by Ben: Adam, in this comment, points us to a story by La Velle E. Neal III in Sunday’s Star-Tribune. The Twins, Neal writes, are prefectly willing to hang out to Santana if the price isn’t right. Fine. Keep him. We’ll keep Phil Hughes and Melky. I like that idea better than Santana in pinstripes right now.
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I have to join this debate! I’m completely behind Rob and Paul and have to contest with Scout and Casey on the whole Cano or Hughes issue! First this topic is completely moot as the Yankees are not offering CANO in any deal as of yet. The issue is who would you rather package, gun to your head, CANO or HUGHES? My answer is CANO! I will explain why with my following points;
1- Cano is 25 and a positional player. Hughes is 21 and a PITCHER. The pitcher always wins over the positional player no matter how many pitching prospects you have. Reasons are simple, pitching wins, hands down. You can never have enough pitching.
2- Scout brings up the point that you don’t want to trade Cano and Melky (2 young positional players) as it will deplete the Yankees of youth and spark in the lineup. My answer to that is, Melky will be replaced by a Jackson, or Gardner. One of the 2 will be ready sometime in the season. You may now ask, how do I know? Well Gardner for one was hitting above avg, stealing bases, and playing damm good defense in triple A last year. Than he tore it up in the Arizona fall league. Jackson had a great season in single and double A. He than tore it up in the Hawaian league. You don’t want to trade these guys, right? Than your quick to say they won’t be ready! One will be ready! At the very least they will play better defense than Damon. To replace Cano’s youthfulness, maybe we plug a gold glove caliber fielder in Alberto Gonzalez in that spot. Your losing offense! But is that are real problem? We are definitely gaining defense there! And that is a problem!
3- Hughes is 21, he was rated the number one prospect in baseball for a reason. He is a big kid that is still developing. He will only get bigger and better. His potential, I’m sorry to say can be higher than Cano’s potential. Cano’s defense can easily be replaced with a Gonzalez. Cano’s offense can be replaced as well as hitters are easier to replace than pitchers!
4- I hope the Yankees do not trade either, but to say Cano is as valuable as Hughes is ridiculous as pitchers with his talent come along every 10 years. We do not know or cannot pretend to know if Hughes will become the ace he is projected to be. But if he does on another team his value eclipses Cano’s. That is baseball 101 folks! Stop thinking with your heart and think with your head on this issue. Hughes should be an untouchable as Bucholz is to the Red Sox. Bucholz isn’t as highly regarded as Hughes is. Cano should be untouchable as well but if you had to trade one, Cano can be replaced alot easier than a Hughes. If you have a Cano jersey and he is your favorite Yankee and you don’t want him traded, well fine! But the issue here is, who has more value? The possible 21 year old future ace? Or the 25 year old 2nd baseman that may wind up in LF that can definitely hit? my answer once again people is the pitcher! Hands down, no contest, game over!
5- Finally I need to establish that I do not want to trade Cano but he is the smarter trade of the 2. If you begin your argument by telling me Cano is already proven and Hughes is still just potential, my answer to you is that Cano is already a star, yes, but if Hughes becomes a true stopper who guarantees you a win every 5 days Who is more valuable to there team? The every day player or the stop gap pitcher? Hughes has that potential to be that player, and you do not trade that away. When Santana is 35 Hughes will only be 27, in his prime, can you imagine! Kennedy is a nice pitcher with 4 solid pitches. He hits 91-93 on the gun. He is on your small side, like a Bucholz. Bucholz is also a smallish pitcher who hits 94 on the radar with 1 excellent pitch and 3 solid pitches. A notch above Kennedy. Hughes is a big pitcher, he hits anywhere from 92-96. He has 2 excellent pitches and 2 solid above avg pitches. He is a few notches above both of them now and has the potential to be even more than that. Don’t make this trade and instead turn to Baltimore fr Bedard or just wait out the Twinkies!
Um, can we start this thread off NOT rehashing a dead horse?
Yeah, let’s try to stay on topic here. We’re talking about Melky right now. Or at least I am in this post. The Robinson Cano talk should wait for another day.
The pitcher always wins over the positional player no matter how many pitching prospects you have.
no it doesn’t.
there goes your entire premise.
absolutes are stupid.
I woud trade Cano before Hughes too, but you hace to keep in mind that Cano is allready a star, something Hughes is not yet. I would do Cano first because a rotation of Santana, Wang, Joba, Hughes and IPK could be great for years to come. But we have to agree that the system lacks a bat like Cano´s right now, something you can´t say about pitching. Another good point is with Hughes, you are dealing form strenth and trading one pitcher for another, and in 3 years Cano would be the one peaking, while Jeter, Arod and Posada could look old by then.
Ben, I wholeheartedly agree with you re: The Melky inclusion. In fact, earlier today, I posted on WasWatching that Melky, while being a pretty average player in almost every respect, is actually far more valuable to the Yankees in 2008 than he ever would be to the Twins. As far as this trade goes, Phil Hughes is PLENTY.
Phil Hughes is plenty, but apparently, not to the Twins. Heck, Hughes and Melky is more than plenty, but again, not to the Twins. I really really want Santana but this is starting to piss me off. Boston says they will throw in Ellsbury if its Santana plus another player (who, Nathan? yeah right!) But the problem always returns to the Yankees lack of leverage as they NEED Johan more than the Sox do and they both know it
Sox’ offer is laughable. What would be the Yankee equivalent? A package of Melky, Gonzalez, IPK, and Veras?
I’m only half-kidding.
Check out this story:
http://www.startribune.com/509/story/1585906.html
Sounds good to me.
That is a fantastic story.
If the story is correct, then I believe the Yankees would be wise to heed the wisdom of Nancy Reagan: “Just say ‘no.’”
Of course, that’s been my position all along.
My big fear is that Hank Steinbrenner is looking to make his mark. I very much hope I’m wrong about that.
This proves that Boston´s offer was used to get Hughes from the Yankees. If they are not taking Hughes because of the 3rd player on the deal, they were never seriuos of taking Lester with 3 other guys.
So now we are talking about not including melky! This is insane. I love the Melk-man but regardless of what rumors leaked that the twins aren’t high on him anymore, it sounds like posturing to get more prospects from the Yankees. So now all of a sudden the Twins aren’t high on Melky, but he was one of the top 3 players they initially asked about and wanted included in the trade. By the way the other 2 players initialy discussed were Hughes and Cano. Lets please not start a forum on Melky, and if we should pull him back! We all know he is gonna be part of the deal and it’s posturing by the Twins to get more prospects. This forum should be for educated fans that know better and don’t bye into the bull. So keep it real and lets talk about who we are willing to add in this trade along with Melky. Lets get some productive feedback and not change the subject from Cano and Hughes, stating it’s rehashing a dead horse (?)” when it isn’t at thispoint and than following it up with this absurd feeling that “I am now thinking we should consider keeping Melky”, lol. Absurd!
All I’m saying is that it’s a little ridiculous to trade Phil Hughes AND Melky Cabrera AND one other prospect for one year of Johan Santana. We’re not changing our position on anything. We weren’t initially talking about Cano in this thread and someone else in the other one turned it into a discussion on him. We’re talking about concrete proposals on the table and that’s it.
I’d also appreciate it if you would try to refrain from name-calling and referring to folks here as uneducated. It’s uncalled for and unnecessary. We’ve all been very good at keeping the discourse civil. Let’s not stop that practice now.
only uneducated fans “bye” into the bull.
I think it boils down to the fact that the Twins essentially need a center fielder. And if they really aren’t going to trade Santana for anything less than they deem acceptable (e.g. Hughes AND Kennedy AND Melky) then there is really no point in the Yankees continuing in these talks. The Twins can hang on to Santana and have a formidable 1-2 with Liriano and I’ll enjoy watching #65 pitch every fifth day.
If the Yankees are willing to give up all of Phil Hughes’ pre-free agency years for just one year of Johan Santana — and, really, they’re only getting one year of the lefty from the Twins.
I think you’re forgetting the fact that Santana would use his no-trade clause unless he gets a contract extension for 5+ years at 20m+ per year. The Yankees (and my red sox) are offering up three or four young guys for the right to pay Johan Santana more than any pitcher has ever made every year until at least 2013.
I’m sorry if you feel I was insulting you Ben. There was no intended name calling amongst loyal Yankee fans . I wasn’t referring to you as being uneducated and I hope your skin is thicker than that because this here is Yankee baseball we are talking about. And PLEASE do not take insult from this, but the YANKEES are not going to trade away top prospects for Santana without having a window to resign him to a long term contract. That statement, while not uneducated is in fact incorrect.
Of course they won’t. So basically, what the Yanks are doing then is potentially trading Hughes, Cabrera and someone else for one year of Santana and the right to talk to him about a contract extension for a few days. I see what you’re saying now, and I wasn’t insulted. No worries. But int he end, I’m still not on board with that trade.
While highly against MLB regulations, the Yanks should make the trade, talk to Santana and then not sign him to a deal. Thus, the trade would be negated, but during the conversation, the Yanks can say, “Pitch well this year and we’ll reward you handsomely next season.” They keep their prospects and get Santana when he’s a free agent. It’s illegal. It would never happen. But it’s fun to think about it.
Well if it keeps Hughes, Tabata, and Jackson on the team it’s good for me. I for one am willing to lose out to the Sawx in order to keep these players and during the season if we have a shot at the wild card, bring in a top pitcher that is made available at the deadline for lesser prospects. I for one and willing to wait out the Twinkies, the A’s, and the Orioles. I am willing to part with Kennedy, Melky, and a Horne to get Santana and no more than that as I am already reluctant to give up Horne as the 3rd player. I am willing to also trade Cano and a lesser prospect for Santana if that saves Hughes and add on guys like Tabata, Jackson, Betances, and Melancon. Lets not fold on there bluff Hank, We are the Yankees, act like one and let Cashman decide on when it’s time to go all in!
I agree with BillyBalla in keeping Hughes out and I’ll take it a step further. Cano, Melky, Kennedy, Horne, and maybe one more prospect for Santana and Nathan. That solves our starting pitching problems and helps with a set up man. We plug gonzalez in at 2nd (good fielder) and either Gardner or Jackson in part time for Damon in center. Yes, we lose a little hitiing, but we gain a lot of pitching possibly get better in the field. The only thingI wonder is if the Twins would want more.
What is with all the people ready to get rid of Cano? Do you people realize that what the Yankees have is pitching depth, not positional depth? If we lose Hughes, we are dealing from a position of strength. We have a ton more power arms to back him up. If we lose Cano, we put in.. who, exactly?
Also, positional prospects are much more of a sure thing than pitchers. There is a reason people say TINSTAAPP. They don’t say that for positional players. Young, cheap, all-star positional players don’t grow on trees.
At some point, you have to ask yourself: who would you rather lose? Pettitte or Jeter? You can survive the loss of a pitcher who plays once every five days. You can’t survive the hit to your lineup unless you spend a ton of money and get another veteran on a team (if they are even available).
Oh, and another thing about Joe Nathan: We just signed Mo to a 3 year deal. By the time he is done, and we are prepared to put Nathan into the closer role, he will also be 37. Do we really want a 37 year old closer?
And to those of you who say “put him into the setup role”: I have two names for you: Eric Gagne and Kyle Farnsworth. Closers don’t like to setup for other closers and it is a risk switching their role.
There is absolutely NO reason to trade our entire farm (which has taken us 3 years to build) and get Nathan, only to wonder how he will do in a setup role.
I say dont trade Hughes, at all puruse the O’s Beddard or wait til next years free agent class. Where if Santana doesn’t sign an extended offer he and Sabathia Beddard and about 10 other A-class pitchers become free agents.
If Santana wants to become a Yankee,”And thus play for the best Yankee team possibily” (One that has Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain)
he’ll refuse any trade to the Sox or any other team and wait til free agency. This way the Yankees can take off Hughes off the bargaining table
http://memotosteinbrenner.blogspot.com/
There is something to be said about comradary and “The Big Three” as they’re refered to as of now of Kennedy, Hughes and Joba even though Joba is a bit of a lone wolf renegade (All came up together!)
Ask Jeter, Posada, Pettite and Mariano!
I’d only trade Cano with Cabrera and Clipard and a few others minor league B+ type pitchers and or Austin Jackson or Tabata with maybee Wang maybee and try to entice Minnesota by eating the majority of contract! … If this isn’t good enough than “F” them
People, stop treating our positional prospects as if they are spare change. I’m down with all the “pitching wins championship” stuff, but you do need someone stepping up to bat once in a while. As good as the trifecta might be, I don’t think they’ll be spotting ERAs of 0.00.
With 32 year old CFs like Torii Hunter getting as much as they are, we can’t afford to trade all of our positional prospects away and hope to sign “gritty” FAs.
To the poster above, look at your own example. Out of the dynasty, look at who the home-grown players were: Jeter, Posada, Bernie. The only starter we had that was home grown was Pettitte. Now I’m not saying we should not care about our young pitchers, but please.. give our positional players some respect. Don’t propose trades like: “I’ll give you Cano, Melky, Jackson, Tabata, Cervelli, Angelini and anyone else not a pitcher for Santana. We’re going to need some of those players to actually field a team.
oh, let them get stuck on that 3rd prospect so the deal falls through. please, please, please…
The thread started with Melky, to whom I now return, repeating for what seems like the 87th time that I am not in favor of the deal if it includes Hughes. That said, I do not see the loss of Melky as nearly as serious. I am a Melky admirier in many ways, but I have never seen him as the long-term CF. There is good talent behind him in the organization, and the Yankees may well replace him with an expensive FA (yesterday’s discussion). Melky is not the young player of rare potential that Hughes is. So, as the Yankees have already made clear to the Twins, he isn’t the deal-breaker. Hughes should have been, but it appears that I (and apparently Cashman) have lost that argument. Now I keep my fingers crossed that the Twins continue to demand so much that even Hank S. can’t swallow them. And I hope that Andy Pettite relents and comes back (and, yes, I know all the signs point the other way).
I’m down with MS:
Cano + Melky + Kennedy + Horne = Santana + Nathan
It’s a fantasy though.
You are trading for 1yr of Santanna.You will,in all probabilty,get a window to negotiate an extension.The extension would begin in 2009.IMO we should not trade Hughes.Just last year he was considered the most important person in the orginization.Now he is trade bait?Not even one for one?How did he fall so much?If the Yanks relent we will come to regert this trade.Why cant the Yanks hold firm like boston?Are we always the desprate team?Posada(4yrs),A-Rod(over 300mil)Mariano(3 at 15)Damon(4yrs)Give Bstn credit.Pedro(3yrs)Damon(3yrs)Lowell(3yrs)No Elsbury,no Bucholz.Sometimes you have to be willing to let somebody walk to get that player.when you go against your original breaking point,you will always regert the move in the future.The Yanks should not include Hughes.Let the Twins move Santanna someplace else.
The Yankees will not sign Santana to a one-year contract. They will only pull the trigger if an extension is included. STOP TALKING ABOUT SANTANA LIKE A ONE YEAR DEAL. That throws the whole conversation off…and makes no sense.
DO NOT TRADE CANO.
We need Robbie.
It is a one year deal with a small negotiation window. The Yankees get a window to signn Santana to a market value deal starting in ‘09. I they dont make the trade and Santana stays a twin the Yankees get to sign him to a market value contract after ‘08. You are assuming if the Yanekes dont get him someone else will but that is far from a given fact.
Just tell them to beat it already. Sick of the Twins. They are being pigs. Santana isn’t going to Boston, they are just trying to extort a ridiculous package from the Yanks. At this point, just walk away.
If I’m Brian Cashman, I have Billy Beane’s number on speed dial. Santana’s too expensive already, let them keep him if they insist on another A prospect. If the Bosox wouldn’t give up Ellsbury and Bucholtz for the best pitcher in Baseball, they certainly won’t give them up for a very good (but not yet great) Haren.
They won’t BTW, they decided to put the process into overdrive once they found out Haren was on the block. They know that if one of these teams land Haren, their whole bargaining strategy collapses. The Twins felt burned by the way the Hunter situation played out, and ALL of the packages being discussed are almost certain to be more than they will get out of draft picks, and they get the players now instead of having to wait years for them to develop.
What do you think the Yankees will have to give up for Haren, a player locked up for another three years? Beane now knows Hughes is not untouchable. Do you really think he’ll settle for IPK?
If they want Jackson or Horne. Then fine. let them pick between those two and Melky and forget about that third prospect or make that third prospect something like ALberto Gonzalez.
“We need Robbie.”
That’s the problem. We don’t.
What do you think the Yankees will have to give up for Haren, a player locked up for another three years? Beane now knows Hughes is not untouchable. Do you really think he’ll settle for IPK?
IPK and an Austin jackson maybe.
If you are Beane, why make that deal NOW? He has no need to move Haren right away. That deal weakens the As over the next 2-3 years. Jackson has a huge upside, but he’s never played above A ball.
It seems like the Twins are really high on Ellsbury than Cabrera because of his Ellsbury’s ceiling. The Yanks are reluctant part with a high ceiling third prospect. I wonder who the back up plan is if the Santana deal hits a snag. Hopefully, it isn’t Haren and I’m not a big fan of Bedard.
so what should plan B be?
There aren’t many big game pitchers available. I would say Peavy, but he hasn’t won a big game yet. Neither has Sabathia, Bedard, or Haren.
How can you give up Cano? Hughes is the #1 pitching prospect in baseball (techincally not a rookie anymore) and a very very rare talent. He showed flashes of brilliance and I`m against giving him up for Santana. However, Cano is already the best second baseman in baseball. His defense is good enough that he could play shortstop. He hits like a first baseman. EVery eyar his power numbers have risen. He chased the BA title in 2006. He`s a proven star player, the best at his position, who’s dirt cheap for a few more years. How many players can you say that about? MAYBE Miguel Cabrera and he`s not the best at his position or as cheap as Cano either.
“However, Cano is already the best second baseman in baseball.”
See Utley, Chase.
“His defense is good enough that he could play shortstop.”
Um, no.
“He hits like a first baseman.”
On the Yankees, yes. Otherwise, no.
Okay, I`ll give you Utley. THen best in the AL.
Have you seen his range? You don’t think he could do better than Jeter.
He hits better thasn the average first baseman. Easily.
the AL average at 1B was .267/.347/.443 last year.
Robbie hit .306/.353/.488
That’s misleading Steve. The AL is very weak at 1b because they choose defense there and put the bats at DH (Giambi, Hafner, Papi, Thome, etc.). You have to look across baseball for a more informative average, and even the the DH screws things up.
I could play SS better than Jeter. That’s not saying much.
Robi’s .841 OPS would have tied him with Konerko at 13th of 19 full-time 1B, just behind Garko and Youkilis. At best, he hits like an average 1B.
Look, I love Robi but I just don’t think he’s going to improve much. He is what he is and that’s highly dependent on his average (or BABIP).