The choice for the club is pretty simple. If the player is valuable enough to warrant a one-year contract, offer him arbitration. You will get draft-pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, and if he does not, you will have a good player signed to a one-year deal…

The Yankees made a mistake by not offering arbitration to either [Bobby Abreu or Andy Pettitte], the biggest mistakes any team made in this round of decisions. For a team with the Yankees’ revenues, especially as they move into an ATM with foul poles, to decline the services of above-average players or draft picks in the event of their departure is a stunning waste of resources. Bobby Abreu projects as a five- or six-win player, Pettitte a bit below that…

Certainly there’s no baseball reason to not want either player. In Abreu’s absence, the Yankees nomnally have an outfield of Xavier Nady, Johnny Damon, Melky Cabrera and Hideki Matsui, with Nick Swisher at first base. Abreu is better than all of those players, and if having him would create a logjam, it does so by forcing inferior talent to the bench, the waiver wire or the trade market. Pettitte was the team’s #3 starter last year, and would project as the #4 even if the Yankees were to sign multiple starters in the free-agent market.

All of that assumes, of course, that the players accept arbitration, foregoing multi-year contracts at market salaries to take a one-year contract with the Yankees. The more likely scenario is that both players would sign elsewhere (or in Pettitte’s case, retire), allowing the Yankees to collect two draft picks for each, either a #1 and a sandwich pick or a #2 and a sandwich pick. Even with the Yankees’…mixed…record in the draft of late, forfeiting the right to those picks is an enormous waste

Two days ago, the Yankees had assets in Abreu and Pettitte that could have been considered short-term investments with minimal risk and fairly certain benefit (were they to rejoin the club), or long-term investments with more risk and uncertain benefit, but higher upside (were they to become draft picks). Now, they have nothing. How a team with the cash reserves of the Yankees can make a choice like that is inexplicable, and recalls the decision to forego the services of Carlos Beltran three years ago, a decision also motivated by short-term cash concerns.

I think Sheehan is underestimating roster flexibility and the economic impact the market conditions have on baseball. I see that Abreu may be above average even in decline, but if he accepts arbitration and earns $18 million, that’s a hefty payday and money the Yanks could be using elsewhere.

I also think he’s overvaluing Abreu. PECOTA ’08 pegged Abreu at a 14.7 maximum VORP and a comparable salary of $7,300,000. Granted, Abreu in 2008 reached his 75 percentile in PECOTA. So we’d probably have to adjust upward by a bit for 2009. He’ll probably end up with more than that stingy salary projection, but should the Yanks risk paying him more than double his relative worth just for the chance of some draft picks?

In the end, we’ll never know if the Yanks made a mistake. By declining arbitration to Abreu, they made him a more attractive free agent. I still think it’s likely that Abreu would have accepted the Yanks’ offer. Pettitte is a tougher argument, but I expect him back in the Bronx in the end. Just something to think about right now though.

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

The reigning AL MVP has signed a six-year, $40.5 million contract extension. The Red Sox are buying out two years of Dustin Pedroia’s free agency at market rate. ESPN just wishes Boston were going a bit overboard. (Hat tip to long-time reader Patrick for mailing this one in.)

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David Adams |   2B

Background
Born and raised in the Margate, FL (just outside of Ft. Lauderdale) Adams lettered for three years in basketball and four years in baseball at Grandview Prep, where his father Dale was the baseball coach. He led the county with a .548 batting avg as a sophomore, and was then named team captain and MVP as a senior. He was named third team All-American by the Baseball Coaches Association as a senior, and was listed as a top 30 high school prospect for the 2005 draft by Baseball America, Team One Baseball, and Perfect Game. By all accounts, Adams is the best baseball player in school history.

Adams was also an excellent student, serving as the Student Goverment vice president, winning the school’s Citizenship Award all four years, and being a member of National Honor Society, Student Senate, Beta Club and SADD. He was named a Scholar Athlete all four years of high school. He earned the High School Coaches Award as a sophomore and junior, and also participated in the Perfect Game National Showcase and East Coast Professional Showcase as a junior. A potential second or third round pick out of high school, Adams dropped to the Tigers in the 21st round because of a strong commitment to Virgina. He did not sign, and headed north to Charlottesville.

Expected to take over third base after the Nationals made Ryan Zimmerman the 4th overall pick in the 2005 Draft, head coach Brian O’Connor instead played Adams at second base his freshman year. Starting all 62 games, Adams led the team in runs scored (57) and multi-hit games (25), while finishing second in homers (5) and total bases (105), and third in hits (76) and RBI (49). He hit his first collegiate homerun in the second at-bat of his career, and led the team with 38 hits in conference play. He was named second team Freshman All-American by Baseball America, and first team by Louisville Slugger.

Adams took a major step forward as a sophomore, finishing second on the team in batting avg (.372), OBP (.454), SLG (.522) and OPS (.976). Starting 61 of 62 games, he led the Cavaliers with 84 hits (sixth most in a school history) and 30 multi-hit games. Virginia finished the year ranked 16th in the nation, but they were upset at home by eventual College World Series champs Oregon State in the regionals. Adams did his part, leading the team with a .429 batting avg in the postseason. He was named second team All-ACC and first team All-State by VaSID.

Playing for Falmouth in the Cape Cod League after his sophomore year, Adams led the pitching heavy circuit in doubles (14), while finishing second in hits (51) and triples (3). Baseball America ranked him the 27th best prospect in the league, the fourth middle infielder on the list behind three eventual first round picks.

Named co-captain and third team preseason All-American by Louisville Slugger before his junior year, Adams had a disappointing year and may have succumbed to draftitis. His slash stats dropped roughly a hundred points across the board, although he did post career highs in homers (6), stolen bases (16) and walks (41). Virginia was again ousted in the regionals, and Adams’ Cavalier career came to a disappointing close.

Rated the top prospect in the state and the 102nd overall prospect for the 2008 Draft by Baseball America, the Yankees selected Adams with their third round pick, number 106 overall. He signed quickly for a straight slot bonus of $333,000, and was assigned to Short Season Staten Island.

Pro Debut
The recent history of Baby Bombers’ second basemen is pretty good, with Damon Sublett being one of the best hitters in the league last year after Wilmer Pino posted a respectable .773 OPS in 2006. Adams wasn’t able to continue that trend, although he did have a solid season hitting .257-.350-.393, posting the third highest OPS amongst second basemen in the league. He hit .320-.386-.480 from July 26th through August 12th, raising his batting avg from .222 to .258.

Scouting Report
Adams does several things well but nothing great. He uses a toe tap as a timing mechanism during his swing, which is balanced but not exactly pretty. It works for him, and allows him to make solid contract and spray balls was gap-to-gap. Adams has an advanced approach at the plate and is willing to take a walk if the pitcher doesn’t give him something to hit.

Once thought to be destined for third base, Adams improved his footwork and defensive skills enough that he’ll be able to stay in the middle infield as a pro. His arm strength and accuracy are both average, good enough to allow him to make difficult throws behind the second base bag. He’s an okay runner, probably less than what you’d like out of a middle infielder.

A very instinctual player, Adams’ whole is greater than the sum of the parts. He’s a gamer and a natural leader on the field. He has a good track record with wood bats dating back to his days on the Cape and in high school showcases. Adams could have been considered a fringe first round talent if he was able to repeat his sophomore success at Virginia during his junior year.

You can see his draft video here.

2009 Outlook
An advanced hitter with experience at a major collegiate program, Adams should provide a veteran presence to a talented High-A Tampa team. Justin Snyder will likely shift over to short to accommodate Adams, who is a better long term option at the position.

My Take
I tend to frown upon drafting low upside, high probability college players, so I’m not thrilled with this pick. That said, Adams is a better player and prospect than he gets credit for. He provides solid depth and should rise through the system quickly. He may not hit enough to play every day in the big leagues, but if he develops into a solid bench player, then he would have provided a solid return for the Yanks’ investment.

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

For what it’s worth, ESPN’s Rob Neyer debated between AJ Burnett and Derek Lowe yesterday, concluding that Lowe is the better bet because he offers more certainty. I agree with that 100%.

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Meanwhile, as long as Sabathia remains unsigned, Richard Justice will continue to publish drivel alleging that Joe Torre would have wrapped up the Sabathia deal weeks ago. Give me a break. It’s about economics, not some call from the manager.

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Scenario 2: The market for corner outfielders past their prime isn’t strong. In fact, baseball executives feel that Abreu could command just a multi-year deal but only at an AAV of $8-$10 million. The Yanks know that, with this parameter in place, Abreu would do better to accept arbitration. So they don’t offer it to him. They know this makes Abreu a bit more attractive in the eyes of his potential suitors because he won’t cost a draft pick, but they’re willing to make that move in the name of fiscal and roster flexibility.

* * *

If you’re the General Manager, what do you do? To me, the answer is simple, and the Yanks made the right move. They picked scenario two. In doing so, they forfeited the potential to receive two draft picks, but right now, it seems as though Abreu would have been in a position where arbitration was the better option. The Yanks knew and didn’t want to take that chance.

In the RAB piece for Newsday’s On the Yankees beat blog, Joe made a similar point yesterday, and it’s worth delving into the aftermath of this decision. It’s not easy to replace Bobby Abreu’s production, and I don’t think the Yanks are expecting Nick Swisher and Xavier Nady to produce at Abreu’s past levels.

But now without Abreu around — and it seems like he is definitely not coming back — the Yanks have options. They can take a good, long look at Manny Ramirez; they can explore Adam Dunn or Pat Burrell. They can spend on pitching and hope that their offense is good enough if their starters can be outstanding. No matter what, they aren’t locked in to an outlandish obligation to Bobby Abreu.

These days, we tend to overvalue draft picks, and yes, compensation picks can be rewarding. After all, the Yanks wouldn’t have Joba Chamberlain without them. In the end, though, they’re just draft picks that may or may come due in a few years’ time. The Yanks looked at the seemingly weak 2009 draft, they looked at where they needed to be right now, and they determined that Bobby Abreu and arbitration did not go hand-in-hand this year. It was the right decision.

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Yankees’ fans have a strong and somewhat irrational dislike for Vazquez, but the bottom line is that he’s been one of the better pitchers in baseball this century. He’s supremely durable, throwing the second most innings in the game since 2000 (at least 198 IP for nine straight years), and a strikeout machine, trailing only Randy Johnson in K’s during that time. His ERA is 4.11 since 2000, just 0.05 runs higher than Andy Pettitte’s (that’s one extra run every 180 IP). Given the Braves’ current rotation situation (Jair Jurrjens and pray for rain), the move is exactly what the team needs.

The ChiSox are reportedly getting three players in return, but LHP Jo-Jo Reyes and IF Brent Lillibridge are fringy guys who shouldn’t play a key role on a contending team. The third prospect, Tyler Flowers, is what makes deal worth it for Kenny Williams’ & Co. One of the best unknown prospects out there, Flowers projects to be an offensive catcher who holds his own behind the plate. He’s hit .291-.400-.488 in his three pro seasons, and he just finished annihilating the AzFL with a 232 OPS+. He instantly becomes the best White Sox prospect not named Beckham, and should render AJ Pierzynski moot no later than 2010. The Braves are also getting garden variety LOOGY Boone Logan.

Boy, Kenny Williams’ trades always seem to come out of nowhere, huh?

*****

Not to be overshadowed by Javy, ex-Yanks’ draftee Matt Carson agreed to a minor league deal with the A’s and also gets an invite to Major League Spring Training. Good for him. Here’s your open thread of for the evening, talk about the trade or anything else here. Just pay play nice.

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog