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Follow us on TwitterWith the Matsui trade talks swirling earlier this week, I was planning on writing up a defense of the Yankees’ DH and sometimes-left fielder. But Mike Plugh beat me to it. So check out Canyon of Heroes’ rational for keeping Matsui. Despite his numbers in the clutch in 2007, Hideki is one Yankee the team shouldn’t trade.
And a quick point that Plugh didn’t touch upon: If Matsui goes, Jason Giambi would become the full-time DH. Can we really expect Jason Giambi to do anything this year anyway? I don’t relying on Giambi is really the way to go.
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his arguement seems pretty coherent to me.. i especially like the part of getting rid of Moose and saving about $9 mill or so!!!!!!!!!!!!!
6 starters for opening ay to me makes no sense…and if someone gets hurt the next starter should be a call up…
Trade Matsui.I like him but young good pitching is something you can’t buy.Do you need a person to hit .300,20 HR,100 Rbi’s.You can get that with Abreu,Damon,ans Giambi if healthy.
And we don’t know if Matsui can be heathly also.I mean Giambi not gonna hurt as a DH (even though David Ortiz finds a way) but we don’t need anymore over 30 outfielders lets give some of these guys for young hard throwers.One of them is bound to be great.
The DH slot on the Yanks is loaded with Giambi (who may be done, but if he’s not…), Bet, Duncan, Jorge, Damon and Abreu.
Yanks would be better served by carrying a Brett Gardner who can hopefully improve of defense when keeping the of fresh or filling in for the inevitable Damon injury, steal some bases and not cost the Yanks 26 mil over 2 years.
No guarantee Matsui stays healthy in 08 and beyond - dump him and move on.
His situational stats last year weren’t any better than Melky’s - don’t need Groundzilla anymore.
Hard to believe the Giants would think he can play the of and stay healthy - but thats there problem/
Matsui is a classic example of why Japanese power hitters are overrated. They make fine hitters, don’t get me wrong, but their power numbers are almost gauranteed to drop off. The teams battling for Fukodome should be cautious. He may be a real good major league hitter when he gets here, but I doubt it will satisfy their need for more power, which is presumable why they’re chasing him.
I happened to know from direct contact with MLB front offices that no one is operating under the assumption that Fukudome is a power hitter. I’ve made that abundantly clear at BP, Canyon of Heroes, and in private consultations with clubs. Fukudome is more Abreu than Vlad Guerrero. His value is entirely predicated on an OBP which sat between 400 and 420 in Japan, and by translation shouldn’t dip below 380 in the Majors. His home runs in Japan weren’t ever the value of his game. He challenged the single-season doubles record every year he played and will retain most of that value in the Majors as a line drive, gap hitter with a little speed. His arm in right field is as good as there is, so no one will run on him.
Matsui, as a Japanese power hitter, WAS overrated when no one knew how that would translate. Now that we have a larger sample of Japanese position players to go by, we understand that aspect of the translation and can more accurately predict how a player will perform. The value of Fukudome and Norichika Aoki, among others are more closely associated with the excellent translation that Ichiro has made to the Majors than the more humble Matsui translation.
That said, it makes me laugh to think that people don’t see the value in Matsui as a DH and part time outfielder. Let’s look at Paul O’Neill’s 1996 season as a Yankee, when he was 33, and compare it to Matsui’s 2007 at 33:
O’Neill .302/.411/.474 and 123 OPS+
Matsui .285/.367/.488 and 123 OPS+
Hmmmm….seems like the value of these players is equal. I know that more advanced metrics might show O’Neill at a slightly higher value than Matsui, but it’s still very very close. Let’s look at what O’Neill did in the following few seasons and ask ourselves if Matsui is capable of the same, shall we?
1997 .324/.399/.514 and 137 OPS+
1998 .317/.372/.510 and 130 OPS+
1999 .285/.353/.459 and 107 OPS+
2000 .283/.336/.424 and 92 OPS+
2001 .267/.330/.459 and 104 OPS+
During that run, O’Neill was hitting about 35-40 doubles and 20 homers a season to go with about 110 RBI and 70-90 runs scored. The 1997 O’Neill would be an absolute ceiling for Matsui, but I would argue that the remainder of those seasons would be very good projections for his output.
Finally, his reputation as “Groundzilla” is an absolute myth. He had 9 GIDPs all of last season. He had 16 in 629 plate appearances in 2005 and only 11 in 584 the previous year. Posada regularly grounds into 25 double plays a season and the aforementioned O’Neill did the same. It’s easy to stick a label on a guy and denegrate him for it. When that label doesn’t hold up to statistical scrutiny it’s hard for people to eat crow. Instead they go on repeating the myth until everyone else believes it as well.
The correct name should be “WeakDribbler2SecondZilla”. I don’t know how / where to check the stats, but from my own observations I’d bet money that nobody hits a higher percentage of weak grounders to second base than Matsui. Nobody…
Those are excellent numbers to back your argument Mike. Thanks for broadening my horizon with relation to his value.
except Paul O’Neill was an EXCELLENT defensive OFer. one of the most underrated aspects of his game.
Matsui has zero defensive value.
big difference.
O’Neill was also a better base-runner.
Paul O’Neill was a MUCH better player than Matsui.
Paul O’Neill was a much better baseball player than Matsui? I’d go so far as to say he was better than Matsui, but the numbers don’t really jive with “much” better. He’s 4-5 points on the EQA higher than Matsui and worth about 2-3 runs more than Matsui per season based on WARP3, mainly as a result of his defense. It’s not as far fetched as you might think.
Matsui’s WARP3, best to worst (age 29-33):
8.1
7.4
5.8
4.6
3.0
O’Neill WARP3, best to worst (age 29-33):
11.7
9.0
6.6
6.4
6.3
ignoring Matsui’s injured 2006 season, O’Neill averaged a full 1.5 wins more per season over the same ages.
like i said, he was a much better player.
I think that’s what I said. O’Neill was worth 2-3 wins more than Matsui on more than one occasion, mainly due to his defense, but I think that puts them in the same ballpark more or less.
no, you said 2-3 “Runs”. which is massively different from 2-3 “WINS”.
if you think 2-3 wins is in the “same ballpark”, i don’t know what to tell you. it’s not.
As I said, I was typing this while doing research for grad work. What I meant was 2-3 wins, which is in the same ballpark when examining all the factors that go into it. Mainly, your argument about defense is right and accounts for the most significant portion of those extra wins. The problem is, as I try to bring it back into the context of this discussion, you aren’t going to replace the quality of Matsui’s bat AND get a better defender for the position for the money he makes. His bat is still quite important to our offense and while we might be able to get some value back for him via trade, it will also create a vacuum that we aren’t prepared to fill in the present without significantly increasing the payroll. Just a thought.
yeah, i don’t really want to trade Matsui just to trade him. that wasn’t my point.
my point was really more about how underrated Paul O’Neill is, mainly b/c he was a much better defender than people give him credit for.
i’m not anti-Matsui so much as i am pro-O’Neill.
thatsalliwassayin.
Paul was a leader, you can’t put that in numbers.
And he radiated the glow of Perseus when the game was on the line. Apollo rode his golden chariot over the Bronx and willed the Yankees to win when he raised his uru hammer to the heavens.
Wow… until Matsui hurt his wrist trying to make that diving play he didn’t miss a game for something like 10 years… he was a little hampered by injuries last year but not too much worse than Jeter. He still got 100 RBIs and I guarantee he hits more than 20 HRs next year. If I were to bet it would be a lot closer to 30 than 20. That coupled with really good baseball sense (i.e. running the bases, moving runners over…) doesn’t put him as a easy player to remove from your lineup.
Is there any chance he could be fine after getting his knww cleaned out? I think it is a poor conclusion to want to go prospect over a proven major league player. But the prospect theme does seem to way heavey in Yankee land after the emergence of some very fine players. I just caution not get too greedy because not every minor league player is going to become a star.
Whitey: What other Japanese powere hitters are you talking about? The few hitters in the Majors were not major power guys in Japan (outside Matsui - no one has hit over 50 in Japan). If you are talking about Akinori Iwamura think twice before you compare him with Matsui. Not in the same league.
Good stuff, Mike. And conveniently, Matsui is only signed for two more years. Problem is, he’s the most tradeable asset without dipping into the pitching too much. Yanks need bullpen help, if Godzilla can bring it, I can’t see why they shouldn’t sacrifice some offense.
I think Matsui’s 6ish WARP will be more valuable than any reliever he can bring back. Giambi is a mess and if he’s out any length of time, plus no Matsui….where is the rest of the power going to come from?
I feel comfortable opening the season with the bullpen:
Ohlendorf
Karstens
Edwar
Bruney
Britton
Farnsworth
Rivera
with Marquez and company in the wings. The trick will be to add one proven veteran to this mix to work the 7th or 8th, depending on Farnsy. Cashman has proved to be creative with his trades, and I don’t think giving up a key cog in our lineup is necessary.
You don’t trade a starting outfielder/DH for bullpen help unless you can get back a bona fide, top-notch reliever. The Yanks have internal options no worse than anything they would get in a trade for Matsui.
I also question this logic of .300/25/100 guys being so replaceable. Nine AL hitters had 25 HR or more and 100 RBIs or more and only 15 players in the AL put up an OPS better than Matsui’s. None of them are free agents. How exactly are you going to replace this offensive production then?
Thank you.
Ben,
For a guy who is so statistically analytical you quote gross stats way too much. Matsui hit in probably the richest spot in mlb - and 10 of those 25 HR’s were in June when everyone on the Yanks was beating the hell out of bad pitching - 6 against TB and 4 in interleague.
Matsui is tied for 40th in mlb in grounders - so the groundzilla comment is made with alot of merit especially if you watch the prolonged streaks where he pulls everything to the right side - and not surprisingly when he’s facing good pitching.
The writing is more than on the wall - he’s getting older and breaking down - its one thing to overvalue young pitching, but quite another to overvalue a defensive zero making 26 mil coming off knee surgery and with a repaired wrist.
Or look at it another way - as great as you think Sui might be, he had 30 more RBI’s on a guy you can’t stand - Melky - except Melky was in the bottom of the order and GROUNDZILLA hit 3-6th all year.
He probably had the most RBI opportunities in MLB - Cano in that spot likely drives in 130+.
Lets trade Sui for whatever we can get, use that opening to bring in Gardner who can provide better defense (late inning as well as spot starts and injury replacement) for our young pitchers and non-k guys - which encompasses the whole rotation.
Its still unfathomable how you rotisserie (sp) fans totally ignore the importance of defense.
Matsui is a spare part - a fragile, zero d spare part - he should be the guy to go.
Why is nobody considering how much money Matsui makes the team?
Because losing Hideki Matsui will not suddenly send the Yankees on a tailspin toward bankruptcy.
But his contract more than pays for itself, which very well might not be true for whoever you get to replace that offense.
no, it doesn’t. this is a myth.
the yankees earn between $3-6M in additional Japanes revenue.
If you believe Boras, it’s 21 million.
If you believe THT, it’s 11 million (http://tinyurl.com/yh9au5).
So it doesn’t completely pay for itself, but still way more than your non-sourced claim.
my claim is not non-sourced.
the article has since been archived, but this was the source:
http://www.bostonherald.com/sp.....id=1045741
the point of that article was that Boras is full of crap and all of the additional revenue he promised the Red Sox has not materialized.
the Sox so far have only made an additional $900K.
in the article, they cited the $3-6M number i quoted.
I’m not going to debate this any further, but THT actually takes the Yankees into account, and their revenue for the years Matsui has been on the team. Whether or not Boston has been able to capitalize on the new markets is irrelevant.
yes, i understand that. i am saying that in this article i linked to, which talks about Japanese revenue and the Red Sox, they say that Matsui generates $3-6M extra revenue for the Yankees. that’s all i was saying, i’m sorry i muddied the waters.
Im just baffled that Ben, Mike, and others have to even make detailed arguments in defense of Hideki Matsui’s value. Where in the hell did all this animosity towards one of the better clutch hitters on this team come from? He suffered one major injury in his entire pro baseball career and drove in 100 RBIs in every healthy ML season yet he’s demed replaceable by some? Even in this “injury-plagued” season he still knocked 25 HRs and 100+ RBIs with 100+ Runs scored.
As to the point made by Mr. Plugh on the Jeter batting leadoff, how about brining up Abreu to follow Jeter in the #2 hole and have Cano bat 3rd? We all know that’s his place to be anyways and his power has been progressing with 19 HR/ 97 RBIs this past season, he would get those fastballs he loves hitting in front of A-Rod. You could move Cano to #2 and keep Abreu at #3 but I think Robbie has more power potential than Bobby.
I’m not pushing to get rid of Matsui, but what if:
Godzilla + Horne + Karstens = Cain + Sanchez?
love that idea.
Cano before A Rod seems to be the best fit for him as far as fastballs.
If he can keep on improving as far as getting on base I could see a .360 out of him in front of A Rod
Ben: If it were as simple as money not mattering for the Yanks we’s already have signed Mahay and Viz.
Jeff, my apologies as I was generalizing. It’s a fairly widespread philosophy that the Japanese ballparks are much smaller in their dimensions than the average ML ballparks and the overall talent of the pitching from team to team in Japan just doesn’t seem to be as deep (I know, MLB pitching isn’t very deep either, but it helps prove my point) which is why many washed up, or 4A players, tend to go to Japan to play because they can have more success there. I think it also tends to fluff up the stats of many perceived Japanese power hitters. Your example of Iwamura is right on. Even though in Japan he was perceived as a power threat, here he is thought of more as a line drive gap hitter, with minimal power. Matsui was nicknamed “Godzilla” in Japan because he had what they referred to as prodigious power. A good season for him here is 24-28 bombs. Nothing to sniff at and a talented hitter for sure, but is he what the yankees thought they were getting, or is just an above average hitting OF in a great line-up.
Completely and utterly untrue. The park factors for Japan compare favorably with most ballparks in the United States these days. The mythology that Japanese parks are band boxes comes from writing that was done 30 years ago.
Matsui is far from an average hitter given that an average hitter would post a 100 OPS+ and Matsui is regularly between 125 and 130. He’s 25% to 30% better than the average hitting outfielder.
Jeter is the greatest number 2 hitter in baseball today. If you feel Cano would benefit from hitting in front of A-Rod, why not go Damon-Jeter-Cano-ARod-Abreu-Matsui-Posada-Giambi-Cabrera
Because Abreu is a .400 OBP guy in front of A-Rod, and putting him behind your top RBI guy would defeat its own purpose to quote Goodfellas.
So Mike, you didn’t address my theory of pitching depth in Japan, would you like to tear that apart as well? You’re apparently well versed in Japanese baseball so can you tell us all what the average dimensions are for parks in the Japan Central League vs. the American League. Also, you don’t like my line-up, probably a lot of people don’t, but because you’ve got me curious, what would your 1-9 be for the yankees in 2008?
Clay Davenport of Baseball Prospectus (where I’m the Japanese baseball correspondent) wrote on January 29, 2002:
“We’ve all heard about the tiny little Japanese ballparks, and the impact they have on the home-run totals of visiting Americans. That isn’t so true anymore. A wave of stadium building swept through Japan over the last 15 years; all six stadiums in the Pacific League, for instance, have been built or remodeled since 1988, although the Central league still has two parks from the 1920s. The remade stadiums are only slightly smaller than their American counterparts.”
This is found at:
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=1330
He goes on to list park factors that back me up, so you can go there for the info if you’re interested. The pitching is very thin. No argument there. The #3-6 pitchers are often AAA, AA, or even A quality compared to the Majors. That much alone inflates the home run totals.
As for my lineup in 2008, I’d go like this:
Jeter
Abreu
Cano
Rodriguez
Posada
Matsui
Duncan/Miranda/Giambi/???
Damon
Melky
or some variation on that. What you get there is on base percentages of .390, .410, and .360 in front of A-Rod. Posada is a tough out behind Rodriguez and should be aroun .380 on base to start things off for the rest of the order. He’s a switch hitter so you can’t intentionally walk A-Rod to get a favorable matchup. The main question is what happens after Matsui. Damon is about .350 on base, so it depends on who you have playing 1st. The lack of quality hitting at 1st makes it weird.
I dig this lineup. Make it so!
Shouldn’t that be “He’s 25% to 30% better than the average *hitter*”. I didn’t think OPS+ adjusted for position.
Yes….that’s correct. VORP corrects for position and he’s regularly somewhere between 35 and 40 in the outfield. That means he’s about 3-4 wins more valuable than the average hitter at his position.
No, it means he’s 3-4 wins above a replacement player. Replacement level production is usually about 80% of league average.
Guh. I’m tired. You’re right again. I’ve been trying to argue this point within a range of acceptable numbers, and write 5 term papers at the same time. Must sleep…..
Well, that’s what you get for trusting numbers over your eyes. Shame, shame.
Yeah. Those pesky numbers. Good thing bridge builders trust their eyes over numbers.
No chance Rob.
Think of Lincecum as Hughes.