BA’s Top 100 Prospects List

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BA revealed their Top 100 List today, and surprisingly they didn’t cut it into two parts like most years. Joba comes in at number three (behind the overrated Jay Bruce and the underrated Evan Longoria), making it the second year in a row the Yanks boasted the top pitching prospect in the minors. (I’m not counting Dice-K from last year; dude was basically a veteran). Joba’s backed up Jose Tabata (#37), Austin Jackson (#41), and IPK (#45). Alan Horne could be considered a snub, but I’m not going to lose sleep over it.

Update: Horne, Jeff Marquez and Jesus Montero each got a few Top 100 votes in the “Best of the Rest” section. Sorry, subscription required.

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  • mustang

    Ok. Someone explain to me how both Jose Tabata and Austin Jackson rank higher than IPK. Especially Austin Jackson he hasn’t play pass A-Ball. When IPK has actually played and had sucess ( how ever little) in MLB. I don’t get it !!!!

    • Rich

      It’s probably based on what they project as Kennedy’s ceiling.

  • jscape2000

    mustang, BA is all about projections. I agree with you, if I were putting together the list I’d want to see the top spots go to guys who are going to make a difference this year.

    • Yankee Fan in Chicago

      The problem with the projections thing is that they do have guys who will play in the majors this year, but have fairly low ceilings — I’m thinking of a particular Sawx youngster who’s all speed and glove and no power — very high on their list.

      So which is it, guys who will contribute now/soon, or guys with high ceilings?

  • mustang

    jscape2000 I understand it’s a projection, but how can you project someone who hasn’t pass A-Ball to better than someone like IPK with his college and MLB experience.

  • chris fowler

    how do mlb teams project high schoolers and college players for the draft? they look at their physical condition, current skill set, make-up, and potential for growth. same for these prospects. according to most scouts, ipk will be anywhere from league average to a serious #2 type starter. and, the same scouts think that jackson and tabata could be mvp type players. will they be? maybe, but probably not. however, given their current talent level, they certainly could be–hence the high ranking.

    example: jeff karstens has had major league experience and moderate success. honestly, he was pretty good in 2006. he is nowhere near the top 100 because, looking at his current skill set, he is either a long reliever or a back end of rotation guy for a bad team. andrew brackman, has essentially zero professional experience but he is ranked significantly higher because of what he could be.

  • Rob_in_CT

    People think that Kennedy’s ceiling is lowish (#3 starter, tops, many say). Jackson and Tabata, on the other hand, have very high ceilings (though they are much, much, much farther from their ceiling than IPK is from his). I think it’s also possible to do a little more projection with guys in the low minors, before they play more and show you they’re not the next Mickey Mantle.

    I too like guys like IPK who are close to meeting their potential, but if you’re building a farm system, while an IPK is an asset, you don’t want a system full of players like him. You want some long shot guys who, if they work out, end up being Manny Ramirez or Jake Peavy.

    Also, the gap between #37 and #45 on a list like this isn’t much.

  • mustang

    That’s the best explantion I ever had of the projection system. Even if I still don’t agree i must say i never though about like that. Great example with jeff karstens.

  • stefan

    Am I the only one who thinks that they’re being a bit generous by ranking Brandon Wood at #16?

    • dan

      You’re not alone. I’m also baffled with LaRoche at 31 and Headley at 32, both of which I feel should be higher. I’m also waiting for the day where I see a good reason to be in love with Justin Masterson– everyone ranks him pretty high but I haven’t seen a good reason for it anywhere.

      • Billybob

        We’ll see how he does this year, but it seems to me that the Angels did a good job at fucking up Brandon Wood’s development…that guy was ready to play full time in 2006.

        • Mike A.

          Wood’s always been a little over-rated. His big offensive year came when he was playing in the High-A California League, the most hitter friendly environment on the planet.

          • r.w.g.

            I don’t know if he’s all that overrated. It’s true that his massive offensive numbers have gone down every level, but he’s still a good hitter and his production at the upper levels has a lot to like.

            Don’t forget, Wood is only 22 or 23 years old. He’s going to be a guy that strikes out a lot, but he has great raw power and is a good athlete. His arm lets him play SS or 3B and he is capable enough to handle both positions defensively.

            • Kanst

              I agree, he has the glove to play a respectable shorstop. If a shortstop can hit 30 homers that is a great player regardless of the K’s and BA. I see Wood as a guy who will hit something like .260/.320/.470 which is a very valuable player. However the Angels with their love for high contact guys have basically screwed up his development

  • Billybob

    I know it was in the California league but 101XBH….damn

  • Mike R.

    4: Times in 25 starts last year that he surrendered more than two runs.”

    BA is a bit tilted, but that number they posted is a fact. You can’t argue with that.

  • dan

    There are a bunch of short stops who hit .270 in the majors. But Wood could be one of the only ones hitting 30-40 home runs. I’d take him in a heartbeat.