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	<title>Comments on: Faulty logic in the Joba debate</title>
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	<link>http://riveraveblues.com/2008/03/24/faulty-logic-in-the-joba-debate-2385/</link>
	<description>A New York Yankees Blog</description>
	<pubDate>Fri, 29 Aug 2008 00:47:04 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: eric from morrisania</title>
		<link>http://riveraveblues.com/2008/03/24/faulty-logic-in-the-joba-debate-2385/#comment-60029</link>
		<dc:creator>eric from morrisania</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Mar 2008 12:12:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riveraveblues.com/2008/03/24/faulty-logic-in-the-joba-debate-2385/#comment-60029</guid>
		<description>Thank you for pointing out my oversimplification.  It forced me to go back, check the stats, and see that I was mistaken.  He wasn't "crap" for the last two years.  He was good in 2006.  He was a crap the two years BEFORE that and the year AFTER that.  So, yes, he wasn't "crap" the last two years, he was just crap three of the past four years.

2004: 162 innings of &lt;b&gt;4.59 ERA&lt;/b&gt; and a 1.32 WHIP, 98 ERA+, 132 K’s to 40 BB’s, &lt;b&gt;21st best ERA in the AL, behind Mike Maroth, Carlos Silva, Ryan Drese and Jon Leiber.&lt;/b&gt;
2005:179 innings of &lt;b&gt;4.41 ERA&lt;/b&gt; and a 1.37 WHIP, 96 ERA+, 142 K’s to 47 BB’s, &lt;b&gt;28th best ERA in the AL, behind Kyle Lohse, Bruce Chen, Paul Byrd, and Gustavo Chacin.&lt;/b&gt;
2006: 197 innings of 3.51 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP, 129 ERA+, 172 K’s to 35 BB’s, 4th best ERA in the AL.
2007: 152 innings of &lt;b&gt;5.15 ERA&lt;/b&gt; and a &lt;b&gt;1.47 WHIP&lt;/b&gt;, 87 ERA+, 91 K’s to 35 BB’s, didn't qualify for the ERA title.  If he had, he would have had the &lt;b&gt;4th WORST ERA in the AL, behind  Brian Bannister, Boof Bonser, Miguel Batista, Chad Gaudin, Tim Wakefield, and Julian Tavarez.&lt;/b&gt;
Yeah, he's a real beast.  Do you think the 2006 season was a statistical outlier, or is that the vintage Mussina that we can expect this year, now that he's about to be 39?  Don't you think that anybody who thinks that he can approximate his 2006 season should have his head examined?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thank you for pointing out my oversimplification.  It forced me to go back, check the stats, and see that I was mistaken.  He wasn&#8217;t &#8220;crap&#8221; for the last two years.  He was good in 2006.  He was a crap the two years BEFORE that and the year AFTER that.  So, yes, he wasn&#8217;t &#8220;crap&#8221; the last two years, he was just crap three of the past four years.</p>
<p>2004: 162 innings of <b>4.59 ERA</b> and a 1.32 WHIP, 98 ERA+, 132 K’s to 40 BB’s, <b>21st best ERA in the AL, behind Mike Maroth, Carlos Silva, Ryan Drese and Jon Leiber.</b><br />
2005:179 innings of <b>4.41 ERA</b> and a 1.37 WHIP, 96 ERA+, 142 K’s to 47 BB’s, <b>28th best ERA in the AL, behind Kyle Lohse, Bruce Chen, Paul Byrd, and Gustavo Chacin.</b><br />
2006: 197 innings of 3.51 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP, 129 ERA+, 172 K’s to 35 BB’s, 4th best ERA in the AL.<br />
2007: 152 innings of <b>5.15 ERA</b> and a <b>1.47 WHIP</b>, 87 ERA+, 91 K’s to 35 BB’s, didn&#8217;t qualify for the ERA title.  If he had, he would have had the <b>4th WORST ERA in the AL, behind  Brian Bannister, Boof Bonser, Miguel Batista, Chad Gaudin, Tim Wakefield, and Julian Tavarez.</b><br />
Yeah, he&#8217;s a real beast.  Do you think the 2006 season was a statistical outlier, or is that the vintage Mussina that we can expect this year, now that he&#8217;s about to be 39?  Don&#8217;t you think that anybody who thinks that he can approximate his 2006 season should have his head examined?</p>
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		<title>By: pete c.</title>
		<link>http://riveraveblues.com/2008/03/24/faulty-logic-in-the-joba-debate-2385/#comment-59625</link>
		<dc:creator>pete c.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Mar 2008 13:37:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riveraveblues.com/2008/03/24/faulty-logic-in-the-joba-debate-2385/#comment-59625</guid>
		<description>Me too Wolf.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Me too Wolf.</p>
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		<title>By: Wolf Williams</title>
		<link>http://riveraveblues.com/2008/03/24/faulty-logic-in-the-joba-debate-2385/#comment-59615</link>
		<dc:creator>Wolf Williams</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Mar 2008 11:29:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riveraveblues.com/2008/03/24/faulty-logic-in-the-joba-debate-2385/#comment-59615</guid>
		<description>I think no matter which you go in the Joba debate, it's all about playing whatever percentages you feel comfortable with.

If you're one of the "he's gotta be a starter..... someday" crowd, you think that he might be worth 16-20 wins a year for 10-12 years, and you hate to see that kind of arm wasted on 75 innings or so every year if he becomes a closer.

If you like him as a closer, you're thinking "Geez.... if he becomes a starter, throws his arm out tossing 200 innings per year, would that have happened if he were in the bullpen?"

If neither of those occur to you, then maybe you're just going on prior performance and imagining what he might do in the future.

But no matter what your opinion, there's no guarantee he'll pan out no matter which way the Yankees use him, long term or short term.

Personally, I think he got a taste of being the big shot, and not in a bad way -- crowds cheering, only having to perform for an inning, maybe two -- and maybe he developed a real taste for relieving. You gotta admit, he took to that spotlight with no hesitation whatsoever, his aww-shucks-Nebraska roots notwithstanding. And that fist-pumping exuberance won't play over seven innings as a starter. Maybe he just wants to be a reliever now. Sure seems that way to me.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think no matter which you go in the Joba debate, it&#8217;s all about playing whatever percentages you feel comfortable with.</p>
<p>If you&#8217;re one of the &#8220;he&#8217;s gotta be a starter&#8230;.. someday&#8221; crowd, you think that he might be worth 16-20 wins a year for 10-12 years, and you hate to see that kind of arm wasted on 75 innings or so every year if he becomes a closer.</p>
<p>If you like him as a closer, you&#8217;re thinking &#8220;Geez&#8230;. if he becomes a starter, throws his arm out tossing 200 innings per year, would that have happened if he were in the bullpen?&#8221;</p>
<p>If neither of those occur to you, then maybe you&#8217;re just going on prior performance and imagining what he might do in the future.</p>
<p>But no matter what your opinion, there&#8217;s no guarantee he&#8217;ll pan out no matter which way the Yankees use him, long term or short term.</p>
<p>Personally, I think he got a taste of being the big shot, and not in a bad way &#8212; crowds cheering, only having to perform for an inning, maybe two &#8212; and maybe he developed a real taste for relieving. You gotta admit, he took to that spotlight with no hesitation whatsoever, his aww-shucks-Nebraska roots notwithstanding. And that fist-pumping exuberance won&#8217;t play over seven innings as a starter. Maybe he just wants to be a reliever now. Sure seems that way to me.</p>
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		<title>By: steve (different one)</title>
		<link>http://riveraveblues.com/2008/03/24/faulty-logic-in-the-joba-debate-2385/#comment-59554</link>
		<dc:creator>steve (different one)</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Mar 2008 00:35:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riveraveblues.com/2008/03/24/faulty-logic-in-the-joba-debate-2385/#comment-59554</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;He’s been crap the last two years&lt;/i&gt;

wow, 197 innings of 3.51 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP is now "crap".  tough crowd.

129 ERA+.   172 K's to 35 BB's.  4th best ERA in the AL.

total garbage.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>He’s been crap the last two years</i></p>
<p>wow, 197 innings of 3.51 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP is now &#8220;crap&#8221;.  tough crowd.</p>
<p>129 ERA+.   172 K&#8217;s to 35 BB&#8217;s.  4th best ERA in the AL.</p>
<p>total garbage.</p>
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		<title>By: steve (different one)</title>
		<link>http://riveraveblues.com/2008/03/24/faulty-logic-in-the-joba-debate-2385/#comment-59551</link>
		<dc:creator>steve (different one)</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Mar 2008 00:30:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riveraveblues.com/2008/03/24/faulty-logic-in-the-joba-debate-2385/#comment-59551</guid>
		<description>but he threw 6 bad innings in ST!!!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>but he threw 6 bad innings in ST!!!</p>
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		<title>By: pete c.</title>
		<link>http://riveraveblues.com/2008/03/24/faulty-logic-in-the-joba-debate-2385/#comment-59542</link>
		<dc:creator>pete c.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Mar 2008 23:59:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riveraveblues.com/2008/03/24/faulty-logic-in-the-joba-debate-2385/#comment-59542</guid>
		<description>Jamal,
 I geuss i don't get my point across as well as I should sometimes. What I meant was, if they want him to start then groom him as a starter; if they want him as a reliever then groom him to takes Mo's spot when he retires. Whether we like or agree with either decision doesn't matter.  I will say this if you read the interview the day after he came in, in relief, he spoke about the differance in the mindset between starting and relieving. It sure seemed like he was more comfortable with relieving than starting, at this point in his developement. But whatever the reason they'll bring him into a game I believe they should commit to that and not change in mid season. Also I don't think 18 innings in the minors will be enough, I wouldn't be surprised if it took twice that but time will tell. So, let's review, yes they are using him for a job. Mostly because they want to have someone they they can count on in pressure situations. If the Farnz, Hawkins or Ohlendorf can't cut it don't be surprised if he stays all season. And no, it doesn't matter how any of us feel about it Zumiya for Verlander not withstanding.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jamal,<br />
 I geuss i don&#8217;t get my point across as well as I should sometimes. What I meant was, if they want him to start then groom him as a starter; if they want him as a reliever then groom him to takes Mo&#8217;s spot when he retires. Whether we like or agree with either decision doesn&#8217;t matter.  I will say this if you read the interview the day after he came in, in relief, he spoke about the differance in the mindset between starting and relieving. It sure seemed like he was more comfortable with relieving than starting, at this point in his developement. But whatever the reason they&#8217;ll bring him into a game I believe they should commit to that and not change in mid season. Also I don&#8217;t think 18 innings in the minors will be enough, I wouldn&#8217;t be surprised if it took twice that but time will tell. So, let&#8217;s review, yes they are using him for a job. Mostly because they want to have someone they they can count on in pressure situations. If the Farnz, Hawkins or Ohlendorf can&#8217;t cut it don&#8217;t be surprised if he stays all season. And no, it doesn&#8217;t matter how any of us feel about it Zumiya for Verlander not withstanding.</p>
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		<title>By: eric from morrisania</title>
		<link>http://riveraveblues.com/2008/03/24/faulty-logic-in-the-joba-debate-2385/#comment-59536</link>
		<dc:creator>eric from morrisania</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Mar 2008 22:56:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riveraveblues.com/2008/03/24/faulty-logic-in-the-joba-debate-2385/#comment-59536</guid>
		<description>This is just stupid all the way around.  WHY MUST THE TEAMS I LOVE ALWAYS MAKE BAD DECISIONS!!!

a) Splitting up Joba's season into half-pen, half-starter is a recipe for disaster.  Even if he doesn't overextend himself physically and get hurt, which is very possible, you're throwing away a half season of development for him as a starter.  Am I the only one worried about his comments about his pacing and approach?  I don't want him thinking about dialing it up and dialing it down, I want him learning how to be a frontline ML starting pitcher.

b) As has been stated, the eighth inning counts the exact same as the third inning, but here's the rub: there are a few eighth innings that matter less than others - eighth innings in April and May.  If you really wanted to use this inane split-season concept because Joba was so dominant in the uber-important eighth inning, have him start first and move to the pen second, when the pressure is really mounting.

c) We don't have 6 starting pitchers.  We have FIVE.  Mike Mussina is not a true starting caliber pitcher anymore.  He's been crap the last two years, his velocity and control are down, and he's a headcase.  This whole "start-in-the-pen-and-move-to-the-rotation" is predicated on the concept that there's no room for Joba in the rotation now, but there will be later, which means that one of the other 5 starters will have crapped out and sucked so bad that he needs to get pulled... and that's CLEARLY Mussina, and nobody questions that.  So if we're all counting on Moose to suck up the joint and open a spot for Joba, why wait for the dreck to occur?  Put Joba in the rotation where he belongs.  Moose is the longman, and he's the insurance incase someone gets hurt or is ineffective (and the spot starter when we want to rest one of the youngsters).  If this hurts his feelings, tough titties.  Nice guy?  I don't give a s--t.  Good father?  F--K YOU, GO HOME AND PLAY WITH YOUR KIDS.  You wanna work here?  Do what you're supposed to do.  It's a team, and you're making 11 million dollars.  Do your job.

d) There are other, much better ways to cap innings.  Have Joba, IPK, and Hughes all have 3 or 4 turns skipped in the rotation.  Pull them early when they're ineffective.  With Moose, Igawa, Rasner, Karstens, and Chase Wright all available as cannon fodder, we'll be able to pitch the Triumvirate less without taxing the pen, and the April/May/June months - plus the stretching out/resting bumps and bruises/setting up for the postseason times in September - are great times to throw an occasional bone to Jeff Marquez, Alan Horne, or Steven White.  Hell, I'd be more comfortable going with a 6 man rotation for a month if you absolutely have to start Moose... even though he hasn't proved that he deserves the courtesy.

e) Not only are you unecessarily screwing with Joba's development, you're pushing back the timelines on Scott Patterson, Ross Ohlendorf, Chris Britton, Edwar Ramirez, Jose Veras, J.B. Cox, Mark Melancon, Kevin Whelan, Dan McCutchen, David Robertson, Humberto Sanchez, etc. etc.  We have a ton of quality young arms who are (with the possible exception of Sanchez) unquestionably destined for ML roles in the pen, not in the rotation.  Why take 20-odd bullpen appearances at the beginning of the season and give them to a guy whom you're not planning on using in that role come September, when you have a whole lot of quality spaghetti you could be throwing at the wall in meaningless games against the Royals and the Rangers?  We're paying Mo Rivera, Latroy Hawkins, and Kyle Farnsworth good money to be the back end of the bullpen; let Hawkins and Farnsworth divvy up the 8th in the early big game situations and see if one of them can nail it down.  Pitch all the other, non-Joba young guns in all the other pen-appearances, and see what works.  And come July, if the pen is a disaster, you could either make a trade, or... wait for it... move Joba to the pen!

What a concept.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is just stupid all the way around.  WHY MUST THE TEAMS I LOVE ALWAYS MAKE BAD DECISIONS!!!</p>
<p>a) Splitting up Joba&#8217;s season into half-pen, half-starter is a recipe for disaster.  Even if he doesn&#8217;t overextend himself physically and get hurt, which is very possible, you&#8217;re throwing away a half season of development for him as a starter.  Am I the only one worried about his comments about his pacing and approach?  I don&#8217;t want him thinking about dialing it up and dialing it down, I want him learning how to be a frontline ML starting pitcher.</p>
<p>b) As has been stated, the eighth inning counts the exact same as the third inning, but here&#8217;s the rub: there are a few eighth innings that matter less than others - eighth innings in April and May.  If you really wanted to use this inane split-season concept because Joba was so dominant in the uber-important eighth inning, have him start first and move to the pen second, when the pressure is really mounting.</p>
<p>c) We don&#8217;t have 6 starting pitchers.  We have FIVE.  Mike Mussina is not a true starting caliber pitcher anymore.  He&#8217;s been crap the last two years, his velocity and control are down, and he&#8217;s a headcase.  This whole &#8220;start-in-the-pen-and-move-to-the-rotation&#8221; is predicated on the concept that there&#8217;s no room for Joba in the rotation now, but there will be later, which means that one of the other 5 starters will have crapped out and sucked so bad that he needs to get pulled&#8230; and that&#8217;s CLEARLY Mussina, and nobody questions that.  So if we&#8217;re all counting on Moose to suck up the joint and open a spot for Joba, why wait for the dreck to occur?  Put Joba in the rotation where he belongs.  Moose is the longman, and he&#8217;s the insurance incase someone gets hurt or is ineffective (and the spot starter when we want to rest one of the youngsters).  If this hurts his feelings, tough titties.  Nice guy?  I don&#8217;t give a s&#8211;t.  Good father?  F&#8211;K YOU, GO HOME AND PLAY WITH YOUR KIDS.  You wanna work here?  Do what you&#8217;re supposed to do.  It&#8217;s a team, and you&#8217;re making 11 million dollars.  Do your job.</p>
<p>d) There are other, much better ways to cap innings.  Have Joba, IPK, and Hughes all have 3 or 4 turns skipped in the rotation.  Pull them early when they&#8217;re ineffective.  With Moose, Igawa, Rasner, Karstens, and Chase Wright all available as cannon fodder, we&#8217;ll be able to pitch the Triumvirate less without taxing the pen, and the April/May/June months - plus the stretching out/resting bumps and bruises/setting up for the postseason times in September - are great times to throw an occasional bone to Jeff Marquez, Alan Horne, or Steven White.  Hell, I&#8217;d be more comfortable going with a 6 man rotation for a month if you absolutely have to start Moose&#8230; even though he hasn&#8217;t proved that he deserves the courtesy.</p>
<p>e) Not only are you unecessarily screwing with Joba&#8217;s development, you&#8217;re pushing back the timelines on Scott Patterson, Ross Ohlendorf, Chris Britton, Edwar Ramirez, Jose Veras, J.B. Cox, Mark Melancon, Kevin Whelan, Dan McCutchen, David Robertson, Humberto Sanchez, etc. etc.  We have a ton of quality young arms who are (with the possible exception of Sanchez) unquestionably destined for ML roles in the pen, not in the rotation.  Why take 20-odd bullpen appearances at the beginning of the season and give them to a guy whom you&#8217;re not planning on using in that role come September, when you have a whole lot of quality spaghetti you could be throwing at the wall in meaningless games against the Royals and the Rangers?  We&#8217;re paying Mo Rivera, Latroy Hawkins, and Kyle Farnsworth good money to be the back end of the bullpen; let Hawkins and Farnsworth divvy up the 8th in the early big game situations and see if one of them can nail it down.  Pitch all the other, non-Joba young guns in all the other pen-appearances, and see what works.  And come July, if the pen is a disaster, you could either make a trade, or&#8230; wait for it&#8230; move Joba to the pen!</p>
<p>What a concept.</p>
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		<title>By: dan</title>
		<link>http://riveraveblues.com/2008/03/24/faulty-logic-in-the-joba-debate-2385/#comment-59527</link>
		<dc:creator>dan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Mar 2008 22:12:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riveraveblues.com/2008/03/24/faulty-logic-in-the-joba-debate-2385/#comment-59527</guid>
		<description>If no one saw Joba throw 24 innings last season, there would be absolutely zero talk of him not being good as a starter, or talk of him belonging in the bullpen. If we step inside the way-back machine to July 31, everyone is talking about the ace of the future, not the closer of the future.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If no one saw Joba throw 24 innings last season, there would be absolutely zero talk of him not being good as a starter, or talk of him belonging in the bullpen. If we step inside the way-back machine to July 31, everyone is talking about the ace of the future, not the closer of the future.</p>
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		<title>By: dan</title>
		<link>http://riveraveblues.com/2008/03/24/faulty-logic-in-the-joba-debate-2385/#comment-59526</link>
		<dc:creator>dan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Mar 2008 22:10:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riveraveblues.com/2008/03/24/faulty-logic-in-the-joba-debate-2385/#comment-59526</guid>
		<description>Kennedy threw 165 last year, he's good for 190-200 this season if he performs.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Kennedy threw 165 last year, he&#8217;s good for 190-200 this season if he performs.</p>
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		<title>By: Joseph P.</title>
		<link>http://riveraveblues.com/2008/03/24/faulty-logic-in-the-joba-debate-2385/#comment-59504</link>
		<dc:creator>Joseph P.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Mar 2008 21:17:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riveraveblues.com/2008/03/24/faulty-logic-in-the-joba-debate-2385/#comment-59504</guid>
		<description>But you can't say something like that and NOT back it up. Nothing we've seen to this point suggests that Joba can't be a successful starter. So what do you see that we don't?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>But you can&#8217;t say something like that and NOT back it up. Nothing we&#8217;ve seen to this point suggests that Joba can&#8217;t be a successful starter. So what do you see that we don&#8217;t?</p>
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