When controversy strikes the Yankee clubhouse, everyone has an opinion about it. Today’s Joba Chamberlain opinion comes to us from Johnny Damon via Tyler Kepner and the Bats blog:

Speaking of Chamberlain, here’s Johnny Damon’s take on his role. It seems to be the majority opinion of the veterans in the clubhouse: “Joba as a starter, he has a chance to help us out once every five days. Him coming in and bridging the gap to Mariano, he’s got a chance to do that three or four times during those five games.

Damon added: “Our objective is to win games. Down the road, if we can find someone else like him to throw that eighth inning, then so be it, he’ll be able to start. But he’s helping us win too many games so far this year.”

The emphasis, of course, is mine.

Johnny Damon’s math, in my opinion, is off a bit. Let’s say the Yankees play three games every five days in which they absolutely need Joba Chamberlain to pitch the 8th. I would consider that to be a one- or two-run save situation in the 8th inning or a situation, like last night, where the game could get out of hand in the 7th. Joba would then be throwing at most three innings every five days.

That math translates to about 100 innings pitched in a 162-game season, and only overworked folks like Scott Proctor see that sort of bullpen use and bause. Joba the starter could be throwing at least six innings every five days for something along the lines of 180-200 innings pitched a season. It’s a no-brainer in terms of numbers.

But what I find interesting about this short piece is how Kepner notes that Damon and the other Yankee veterans all see to prefer Joba in the 8th. To me, it seems as though the idea of Joba has become something of a crutch for the Yankees. Even if he pitches just once in five days because the Yanks lose two games and are winning the other two by lopsided margins, the idea that Joba is in the bullpen does more for the Yankees’ psyche than his presence does in the games.

That, however, is no way to win championships.

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96 Comments »

Sciorsci says:

Unless, of course, you’re concerned about his mechanics possibly leading to injury, in which case it would be a whole lot better to get 70-100 innings out of Joba for the next 10-15 years than it would be to get 180-200 innings out of him for the next 3-5.

And as much as I certainly understand the math, I do wonder how Joba’s intensity would translate to a starting role. To me, that’s part of who he is, and I wonder if he would tone that down as a starter. I know it’s mathematically incorrect, but I personally feel like he’s a perfect fit where he is, and as the heir apparent to Rivera. He’s, in my opinion, the Yankees’ version of Papelbon.

Sciorsci says:

Plus, with Horne, Marquz, Betances, Brackman, etc. all coming up behind him, isn’t the SP depth sufficient to at least consider the possibility of keeping him in the bullpen?

I know - Hank would call me an idiot.

whozat says:

“Plus, with Horne, Marquz, Betances, Brackman, etc. all coming up behind him, isn’t the SP depth sufficient to at least consider the possibility of keeping him in the bullpen?”

The only guys that have even a semblance of Joba’s upside in the organization are Betances (who’s 18 and has no consistency with his mechanics yet) and Brackman, who has yet to throw an inning of professional baseball. These guys are years away yet. Joba could be a front-end guy inside of a year. HOW COULD YOU want to leave that kind of talent in the pen.

 
 
swo says:

Comparing 4-pitch Joba to 2-pitch Papelbon will get you called an idiot by more than just Hank, lol

But seriously, the Yankees want to at least see what they have in Joba the starter. If he fails, THEN make him a bullpen guy permanently. But if he’s an ace, then he belongs in the rotation.

Casper says:

Perhaps a more diplomatic way to discuss the inevitable Joba/Papelbon comparison is to point out that (1) Joba is a better prospect than Papelbon was, (2) just because it worked one way for Papelbon does not mean it must work that way for Joba and (3) a true #1 starter is more valuable to a team than a shutdown closer.

Regarding the Yanks’ pitching depth in the minors… Yes, it’s great that we have that depth and hopefully all or most of those guys will pan out and be good major league pitchers. But… IF ANY of them (including Joba) can be good starters, they should be starters, and you take the guys who can’t start for the team (either because they don’t pan out as starters or because, best-case scenario, they all pan out and you have a few guys who just aren’t as good as the others) and either let them continue developing, deal them, or use them in the bullpen and as spot-starters. You don’t stick Joba in the pen permanently because you have Alan Horne in SWB and Andrew Brackman recovering from TJS without ever having thrown a pitch as a professional.

I honestly don’t intend for this to come off as antagonistic towards any Joba-in-bullpen proponents, but it seems like maybe some people are being short-sighted and think that just because Kyle Farnsworth hasn’t panned out, that it’s impossible to find an 8th inning guy (or closer for that matter). It’s MUCH more difficult to find (or develop, for that matter), a #1 starter. It’s just not even close in that regard. #1 starters are not guys you can just go out and get. Mike Stantons, Ramiro Mendozas, Mike Timlins (a few years ago), Hideki Okajimas, Keith Foulkes, Brad Lidges… are.

 
 
Ed says:

Papelbon was a closer in college. He only became a starter after the Red Sox drafted him. He moved to the bullpen to fill a need, and would’ve gone back to the rotation but it became clear very quickly in spring training that he just didn’t have the stamina or stuff to be a starter in the majors.

Joba was a starter in high school and college. He completely dominated the minors in that role. Joba has done absolutely nothing to indicate that he isn’t capable of being a starter in the majors.

 
 
nick blasioli says:

we are talking about an unknown as joba has to prove stamina and consistancey in pitching..he doesnt look like a starter to me…hell lets try it and see…

Ben K. says:

I would have bet so much money on your saying that. I guess his ridiculously successful Minor League starting track record does nothing for you?

mustang says:

” I guess his ridiculously successful Minor League starting track record does nothing for you?”

It’s the MINOR LEAGUE.

Casper says:

Totally. The Yanks should trade Austin Jackson, Jose Tabata, Alan Horne, toss in Jesus Montero for good measure. They’re in the minors, they may as well be playing hockey.

mustang says:

No we should just bring up Austin Jackson, Jose Tabata, Alan Horne, and Jesus Montero tomorrow. Send everyone else home.

Casper says:
Yankee1010 says:

What are these minor leagues these people are talking about? Those don’t matter at all, right? Why do the Yanks have a farm system? Let’s just go get Free Agent starters and pay them up the ass. That seems like a tremendously, fantastic idea.

Hey, Joba, take your Fastball, Slider, Curve and Change and stay in the bullpen. What? You didn’t hear? You’re just like Mo and Papsmear. Mo has one dominating pitch. So what if he would get shelled after multiple times through the order. Papelbon has 2 pitches, and no real offspeed pitches. His shoulder has structural problems. Yep, you’re EXACTLY like them. Hurry up everyone. Listen to George A. King III. Listen to Mike and the Mad Dog. Listen to the Mediots. My God. I can’t believe that people still can’t see the light.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Travis G. says:

stupid minor league. those players suck and will never be good enough to play in the major league.

good thing the major league can produce it’s own players out of thin air or it might have to look to the minor league.

 
 
 
 
Casper says:

Agree with Ben, was waiting for someone to say that while writing my too-wordy comment above. It’s more a surprise that Joba is so good as a reliever than it would be that he’s a good starter. The guy’s always been a starter, he was only put in the pen last season out of necessity (he approached his usage limit and the Yanks had a need at the MLB level). This is not taking a career-long reliever and trying him out in the rotation. This is taking a starter, giving him some innings in the pen, and then moving him back into his appropriate role when the time is right.

Casper says:

My bad, I clearly haven’t mastered the art of replying to specific comments.

 
 
Geno says:

When dealing with issues near and dear to our hearts, objectivity is sometimes difficult. It often pays to look at things from another perspective. Let’s use Bucholtz as an example. He’s young, and he’s got dynamite stuff. Now, as a Yankee fan, where would I rather Laptop be - in the Sox rotation, or as Boston’s 8th inning guy?

There’s no question. I would be ecstatic if they relegated one of their best young starters to the pen. When we next faced Boston in the playoffs, Bucholtz would be out of the picture. No way I’m worrying about their 8th inning guy in the playoffs. Potentially dominating young starters? Those I worry about.

8th inning guys are nice luxuries to have during the regular saeson, but come playoff time, it’s starters who dominate and win teams championships.

Casper says:

That’s a GREAT example. (Although I think your last sentence, while I understand your intent, is a little off… It’s not a regular season vs. postseason thing. If Joba is an effective starter he should be in the rotation regardless of the time of year.)

Geno says:

Right. I think though that positioning the debate in the framework of the playoffs helps to bring the issue into better focus. During the long regular season, it may seem as though 8th inning Joba is everywhere, pitching 2 or 3 times a week. This could make people inflate his value. Frame it in the context of the playoffs though, and I would expect even those inflating the value of regular season 8th inning Joba to see the superior value of playoff starter Joba. Remove the innings cap issue, and of course, have Joba throw his 200 innings throughout the year.

Casper says:

But you’re switching between looking at it from the Yankees fan perspective and the perspective of a Yankees fan (or fan of another team) looking more objectively at other teams. You can make your same argument (”if you are thinking, more objectively, about a team other than the Yankees…”) in the context of the regular season… For example - Yanks are in Cleveland this weekend, I think Sabathia is scheduled to pitch on Sunday. I’d be f’ng ecstatic if the Indians said “Borowski’s out, Betancourt is the new closer, we need Sabathia in the 8th inning. Let someone else start, CC’s in the pen from here on out, he’ll OWN the 8th inning.” Regular season, postseason, it’s the same argument.

 
 
 
 
zack says:

The whole notion of the Crutch” applies to the media and many fans too I think. There was a void, Joba comes in a fills it, and now lots of people can’t fathom life without him filling that role. In fact, they go so far as to imagine that before Joba, that void was unfillable, that only JOBA could pitch in the 8th successfully. Which of course is ludicrous. If the reverse had happened, if Joba had come up as a starter and been somewhat successful instead of say, Kennedy, then the argument might work the other way (or not happen at all of course).

But now we are in a situation where what is comfortable and working in the short term, and perhaps is a ridiculous and egregious waste of resources in the process (think of, say, using a riding mower to cut a 100 ft patch of grass while you let your huge back yard go wild—sure its fun, quick, and easy to get used to and saves you the hard work behind you, but is it really the best use of your resources? Wouldn’t that mower be better doing the heavy, larger work that so needs attention, and wouldn’t you be best served not wasting money, gas, and , time on that one small spot and instead focus on the bigger picture?), overrides what is best for the team’s longterm health and success. That is an oh so common situation, is it not?

 
mustang says:

I totally agree with Johnny Damon and I’m happy to hear the other veterans feel the same.
“Our objective is to win games.” EXACTLY.
Right now Joba fills a vital role on this team if his development as starter has to wait in order for the team to win then it should.

Joba is here to fulfill the needs of the team not the other way around. That I think is something that sometimes gets lost when we talk about these 3 guys.

Yankee1010 says:

The objective is to win goddamn championships. What’s more important - a #1 starter or an 8th inning guy? I don’t have the exact numbers on me, but the Yanks last 16 postseason starts have given you 3 quality starts with an ERA over 6. However, why try to fix that when the mighty 8th inning beckons. OH. MY. GOD. Really, how do you not see this?

mustang says:

First to address you’re other comments.
I hate Mike and the Mad Dog and I’m have never been too crazy about George.
One no here can say that Joba is going to be a #1 starter. Yes, you can look at his minor league numbers and project what he might do, but that’s just a projection.
However, we have seen what he could do in the 8th and how he has helped this team. That’s what this teams needs right now is the 8th inning Joba.
Again I never said don’t ever make him start just not now.
To make myself more clear just not this season.

Yankee1010 says:

So you’re saying that the Yanks shouldn’t see if he’s a #1 starter?

Exactly HOW do you plan on making him a starter if you’re going to keep him in the pen this year? Re-visit the situation next year? You’re going to change your mind then?

mustang says:

Yes.
I can’t speak for everyone, but I would not change my mind.
Really what is the rush anyway?

 
 
 
 
 
mustang says:

Furthermore if having Joba in the pen helps the Yankees’ psyche or he is being used as crutch, great.
Anything to put WINS on the broad.

jt says:

I thought only the idiot talk show hosts thought like this…

 
 
Jamal G. says:

I can’t stand it when people use “IT’S THE MINOR LEAGUES” as a crutch in their Joba-to-the-bullpen argument when it comes to his success You say it like minor league success does not translate to Major League success. Check out Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander and Josh Beckett’s minor league stats. Go check em, thebaseballcube.com.

Nobody is saying it’s a guarantee that his success as a starter will translate in a major league rotation, HOWEVER, to completely disregard it is foolish. 135Ks for a 13.79K/9 in 88.1 innings over three minor league levels is just plain DOMINANT. You can’t look at those numbers and say those mean dick. You just can’t, I understand it is the minor leagues but it is still a high level of competition.

Yankee1010 says:

Only the idiots and mediots are disregarding it. I agree though, it’s infuriating to listen to these people who think that the Minors are useless. Um, people realize the pretty much EVERY player played in the minors at some point, right? So if a player dominates the minors at every level, perhaps that could be indicative of future, major league success.

 
 
Joseph P. says:

Why do people ignore the fact that Joba had been a *successful* starter his entire life until last July? You could convert a whole ton of top-tier minor leaguers into relievers. But there’s a reason why teams don’t do that.

Yankee1010 says:

I think the “Joba Must Stay in the Pen” Kool-Aid is the same stuff that David Koresh used to make.

 
 
Jamal G. says:

Also, major league players no nothing about baseball management. They know nothing of developing a prospect or constructing a roster so when these *reporters use their feelings for Joba in the bullpen is just dumb. There’s a reason you see basically no former plays in the front offices of MLB and NFL franchises, just because you can play does in no way mean you can build a team.

*I do not mean Tyler Kepner as he has publicy noted he thinks Joba should go to the rotation. I mean assholes like Joel Sherman (used to be a fan of this guy) who, in numerous articles, has predicted a veteran “revolt in the clubhouse” if Joba is switched to the rotation mid-season. Excuse me sir, but Fuck You. I also mean Bob Klapisch who used the same Johnny Damon quote as an argument for Joba to stay in the bullpen.

Count Zero says:

Especially Damon…who is clearly not the sharpest tool in the shed. I mean we’re taking managerial advice from a guy who will not be managing even a AA club when he retires. :-)

 
pete c. says:

Jamal<I think Damon may know more about the game than we do. After all he’s been playing it his whole life at a high level. While I don’t disagree totaly with the sentiment that joba belongs in the rotation, I have heard an interview in ST when he sounded a lot happier coming out of the pen in a pressure situation than starting. Say what you want (and you will), his make-up will have something to do with his success. I’ve said before ,I believe he should stay in the pen this season, and get ready to go in the rotation next season. if he starts this year the team will have 3 rookies in the rotation. How much success do you think the team will have this season with that scenario?

 
 
mustang says:

Jamal G
I never said that minor league numbers don’t mean dick. You just have to put them in proper prospective that’s all.

Ben K. says:

That’s exactly what you said.

And can you please use the “reply to this comment” function? We’ve put that in so that threads can retain some semblance of logic and flow. If you’re replying to Jamal’s comment, do so using the proper form.

 
mustang says:

No, I did not.
All I said “IT’S THE MINOR LEAGUES” and you guys ran with it. I think I have clarified my stand on minors in my comments above and below.

 
 
 
rbizzler says:

I can’t believe anyone would give credence to anything that Damon has to say. Let’s just say that his intellectual abilities are not what make him a successful baseball player.

And I am sure that the ‘majority of the clubhouse’ won’t mind when Joba is locking people down for 6+ innings a clip.

Casper says:

Just wait until the first time Joba goes 6+ strong and a reliever blows the lead in the 8th. The reaction will be hilarious/terrifying.

rbizzler says:

The reaction will only be negative from the M&MD fanboy crowd. Anyone who employs even the slightest bit of logic will know that a lesser starter would/might not have had the team in the same position headed into the 8th (read: Mike Mussina).

 
 
 
Rich says:

Damon, like many, if not most, veterans, is only focused on what would help the team this season. Consequently, Damon’s opinion should be discounted accordingly.

It’s the GM’s job (and ownership’s) to make decisions based on what is best for the team in the mid- to long-term. That’s what Cashman is doing, and it’s the reason he has said that the decision on Joba’s role will be made based on considerations beyond this season.

To that end, a front of the rotation starter unequivocally has more value than any set up reliever. If Joba isn’t converted into a starter this season, it will restrict his innings cap for next season, and with it his development.

Yankee1010 says:

Ask them that the next time they see yet another starter completely shelled to start a playoff game.

 
 
Jamal G. says:

You know, when it’s all said and done, I think on the most part we can agree that Johnny Damon needs to STFU.

Joseph P. says:

It really illustrates why I never even tried to cover sports professionally. Who wants to talk to athletes? They rarely have anything interesting to say.

jt says:

Talk show hosts are not much better. The only ones i can stand listening to are max kellerman and brandon tierney.

 
 
 
Mokers says:

This 8th inning guy stuff is such a joke. If we removed the name Joba from the equation and told a person “We have a pitcher in our system with four major league quality pitches. He has the best arm on the team. Where should we use him?” Any baseball person is going to tell you that your best arm should be in the rotation. It doesn’t matter if its and old-timer or a sabrmetrics guy. They will tell you the same thing. If that guy doesn’t work out as a starter because his stuff wasn’t as good as previously thought, or an injury (Smoltz, Kerry Wood) then you can put them in the bullpen.

There is a reason why Johnny Damon wrote a book called “Idiot”. These same sportswriters said that there would be a veteran revolt if Torre left and I haven’t seen any evidence of that.

swo says:

Puts it in perspective, doesn’t it? Good post

 
 
Chris says:

The problem with this ’simple math’ is that he will surely have a lower ERA in the bullpen than in the rotation. The question is where will he save more runs for the team - in the rotation or in the bullpen. You can come up with reasonable scenarios that would have him saving more runs (relative to his replacement) in either scenario. It’s not a certainty that he would save more runs as a starter just because he pitches more innings, and if the number of runs saved over the course of the season is equal having him as a reliever allows you to leverage his innings more effectively.

Joseph P. says:

You know, you’re really the only one making any sense for the pro-bullpen argument.

 
Ben K. says:

If his starter’s ERA is 3.50 in ~180 IP, he’d have to throw about 80 innings of pitching at around a 1.50 in the bullpen to make it worthwhile. That’s a dirty calculation, but that’s the baseline standard. It’s possible, but not too likely, that he can keep his ERA that low all the time out of the bullpen.

Yankee1010 says:

The Joba-to-the-Pen contingent also has to consider that there would likely be an inferior pitcher pitching the innings that Joba could as a starter. It’s a lot easier for guys with only 1 or 2 pitches to excel as a setup man.

Which would you rather have: Joba with a 3.50 ERA in 180 IP and pitcher X with a 3.00 ERA in 80 IP or Pitcher X with a 5.00+ ERA in 180 IP and Joba with a 1.50 ERA in 80 IP?

Chris says:

If you look at the possible replacements (I’m talking long term, so free agents, trade possibilities, etc and not just whoever we can plug in now), you could reasonable expect about a 4.5 ERA for both the starter and reliever.

This means that Joba would basically break even if he has a 1.5 ERA in the pen and a 3.5 ERA in the rotation. For comparison, Papelbon has a career 1.68 ERA, and we all know he’s not as good at Joba.

whozat says:

“If you look at the possible replacements (I’m talking long term, so free agents, trade possibilities, etc and not just whoever we can plug in now), you could reasonable expect about a 4.5 ERA for both the starter and reliever.”

So, out of Patterson, Ohlendorf, Melancon, Cox, Veras, Britton, and Sanchez, you don’t think we can find ONE guy capable of putting up an ERA better than 4.5 in relief? I do.

Mo has a career ERA in the 2’s. His best seasons weren’t at a 1.5 ERA. You basically have to assume that Joba would perform better than almost any reliever ever–over the long-term–in order to out-perform his potential value as a front-end starter.

 
Yankee1010 says:

I disagree about the “reasonably expect about a 4.5 ERA” for the starter. In the AL last year, there were 29 guys who had ERAs under 4.5 The dropoff is also pretty steep (see, e.g. Daniel Cabrera at 36 with a 5.55 ERA). To think that the Yanks would just get a 4.5 ERA out of somebody who would give them 180-200 innings is a stretch.

Moreover, I completely disagree about the 4.5 ERA for a reliever. Farnsworth’s career ERA is 4.47. The man is constantly ridiculed because he’s crap. You don’t think that the Yanks can do better than that? It is far easier to find a reliever who can put up an ERA better than 4.5 than it is to find a starter who can do that. Many guys can get by in the bullpen with 2 pitches.

You speak about a long-term plan, but the Yanks have a TON of guys who profile well as late inning relievers, e.g. Melancon, Sanchez, Ohlendorf, Robertson, Cox, Whelan (if he’s healthy), McCutchen (who arguably might not stick as a starater), a slew of guys at AAA right now, Kontos, maybe Marquez and Horne (if the starting does not work out), etc. The point is, that it is far more difficult to develop an ace starter. They do not grow on trees. For the Yanks to pass up the opportunity to develop an ace is most certainly foolish.

Also, can’t we all hope that the days of paying $10 million plus a year on crap free agent starters is over? The fact remains that the real aces (Sabathia aside) are not hitting free agency any more because MLB is printing money.

One also has to think about the playoffs. What is the real goal here? Hopefully, everyone thinks it’s to win a World Series.

Chris says:

There were 56 starters in the AL last year who threw more than 100 innings as a starter. Of those, 37 (almost exactly two thirds) had an ERA under 4.5.

There were 78 relievers that threw more than 40 innings in relief. Of those, 52 (exactly two thirds) had an ERA under 4.5.

I think a 4.5 ERA is a reasonable estimate for both cases.

As for needing an ace in the playoffs, who was the Ace for the 2006 Cardinals? Jeff Weaver. He had a 5.76 ERA in 2006 and 6.2 ERA in 2007.