Game 67: Observing a trend
ByThere was a game in Boston back in 2006 — May 22 — where the Yanks were getting beat 9-1 by the Sox headed into the top of the 9th. A few hits, combined with back-to-back shots by A-Rod and Jorge, netted the Yanks four runs in a futile comeback attempt. But Paul O’Neill said something peculiar, to the effect that it’s good to score runs late when you’re getting blown out. It shows you have life, and you’re bound to win the next day.
Being at the height of my sabermetric obsession (which, thankfully, has long since passed), I wrote him off as being a bit batty, and looking too much with his eyes and not with the logic and reason of statistics. Fool! Not him, but me. Turns out, the Yanks did win the next game. At that point, I decided to make a note of any situations in which the Yanks were getting blown out, scored a few in the ninth, and won the next day.
To this day, every time the Yanks have been in that situation, they’ve won the next day. Well, at least every time I’ve remembered to make the note. I was going to mention this trend on May 9, the day after the Yanks were down 6-1 going into the ninth in Detroit, and mustered four runs. I held off, though. Yet, the Yankees won again.
Is there truth to Paulie’s statement? Clearly, there’s no way to prove it. But from my limited and likely skewed observation, it has merit. So there is hope for tonight. I’ll be interested to see how this all plays out.
Notes: Per PeteAbe: Albalaedjo is done for the season. Hughes will start a throwing program in two weeks. Say hello to winter ball, Phil.
Your lineup:
1. Johnny Damon, LF
2. Derek Jeter, SS
3. Bobby Abreu, RF
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Hideki Matsui, DH
6. Jason Giambi, 1B
7. Robinson Cano, 2B
8. Melky Cabrera, CF
9. Jose Molina, C
And on the mound, number forty-six, Andy Pettitte.
120 Comments»
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Well, there is a way to prove it, given the whole database of boxscores. See if teams who are down by, say, five or more runs in the 9th inning, yet still score some runs in that ninth… go on to win the next game by a higher percentage than indicated by their overall win %. For each individual team the sample size would be too small, but if you took the database all the way back to 1956, the combined dataset may have statistical power.
Unfortunately, I don’t really know how to get that information out of the Retrosheet data. I’m only beginning to learn Perl, but that should be able to do it fairly simply.
Jake Peavy pitched 6 shutout innings today in his first start off the DL. Next start: next week in the Bronx. Yankees cant catch any damn breaks this season!!
You did make this point Joe, in fact I thought I was having a bout of deja vu reading your intro. You made this point after that very same Detroit game.
Ha! So I did. But I actually took the time to look up the game this time (I was wrong about it being ’05).
clearly, there is a way to prove it, or disprove it for that matter which is the more likely scenario. if one could (i am not sure how, but retrosheet.org is probably the place to do it) determine every game where a team trailed in the 8th by 5 or more runs but were able to at least halve that deficit in the 8th or 9th innings, then the win-loss record for the following day could be looked at. and surely, the record for that next game would be right in line with the record for any other game that that team played that year. to combat one cliche with another, momentum is only as good as the next day’s starting pitcher.
sorry mehmattski, i didn’t mean to post almost the exact same thing as you (down to the italicized “is”)…i started writing my comment while none were posted yet. i guess i am too slow.
It’s cool… with our powers combined, we might be able to make new strides in the statistical community. Either that or drown in a sea of numbers…
Yeah, with the proper data mining software, I suppose you could do it. But I can’t imagine that being easy, having to dig into every game log.
That’s the power of Perl, or so I’m told. One should be able to parse all of the data with a few simple commands and then search for instances that match the criteria. I’m learning the language to help me in biology research, but secretly also to open up new avenues of being a baseball stat nerd!
Too bad Rob Neyer didnt do a story on this in his latest book.
Damon smoked one for a leadoff single.
They call Blanton “Cupcakes.” It’s easy to see why.
Seriously, can someone tell me what is wrong with Jeter? Is he just having one of those blah seasons or is he slowing down already?
The Yankees left 2 guys on base w/o scoring a run????? no way
does anyone else think that cano’s little bat wiggle right before he starts his swing/the lengthyness of his swing as a whole is/are a major contributor to his struggles? If he could just simplify it a bit, maybe close up a little, it may be easier for him to snap out.
I think a big contribution to Cano’s struggles is the fact that he is making 10% more contact on pitches that are out of the zone, that he swings at. He is swinging at the same percentage of pitches out of the zone as he has all most of his career, its just that this year he is putting them into play. And with balls out of the zone, you normally are not making good contact, thus the weak ground outs and constant pop ups. So instead of a strike, he is making an out.
Guys, I know this is kind of random, but what does everyone think of the maple bat situation?
It is getting to the point where it is dangerous for the players. umpires and base coaches. One day a player will get mauled by the sharp part of a shattered bat and then MLB will realize they need to put some ruling on them. I hate how the MLB does that, they don’t do anything until they HAVE to do it or something bad happens(steroids, helmets on base coaches, replay, and now this)
Did anyone else realize that John Flaherty is looking more and more like Hitler every day.
It’s funny because its true.
I got a question for y’all… I was listening to ESPN’s Baseball Daily podcast today, and one of the guys (had to be Karabelli, because I don’t think much of the other one) made an interesting point: “people” around baseball are saying that offense is down around the American League this year because players aren’t using uppers anymore. The theory is that players are more tired and more worn down during the season because they don’t have the extra “pick-me-up” of an amphetamene. (Please excuse my spelling.) Caffeine doesn’t have an impact on alertness and agility when a person is tired enough, which is why Red Bull stocks haven’t risen this year.
What do you think? This theory can start to make a lot of sense, particularly looking at this Yankees team. It’s an older team, offensively, and their travel schedule is the worst in the league (how many day games have they played this year on getaway days? 5? 6?). I’m a guy that’s on the other side of 30, and my energy doesn’t get back quite as quickly as it used to.
Well, the pitchers aren’t using amphetamines either. So wouldn’t the pitchers be more tired and worn down, thus balancing out the tired hitters?
I’m not trying to disprove you’re point, I’m asking a question. I’m curious about this too. Maybe the pitching is just getting better.
Theoretically, yes. But, the major league BABIP is still around .300, I think, which means that their attention lags will likely turn into outs roughly 70% of the time. Plus, the starting pitchers have a different travel schedule and, I’m told, lead a lifestyle that would encourage more rest.
Whereas, if a player loses part of his attention and reflexes, that seems likely to have a more catastrophic effect on his hitting performance.
Believe it or not, ive never drank a Red Bull or any other energy drink for that matter, do they really have that big an effect on your energy????
Yes, but it’s caffeine. While I can’t quote any scientific studies, I can say from the experience of a long-standing caffeine addiction that, if I’m tired and sore, a gallon of coffee – way more caffeine than a six pack of Red Bulls – isn’t going to make things significantly better.
The theory starts to make more sense, the more I think about it. Look at this team’s offense, and how horrible they seemed to be earlier in the season from innings 6 to 9.
This team’s offense has been horrible from innings 1 thru 6 too. Actually recently they have been better later rather than earlier in the game. Anyway you answered my question though, if it is just caffiene basically, hell my family is Cuban so i know alot about coffee, even though i dont particularly drink it much, than i dont see how Red Bulls and Starbucks would help players play better.
This is the 3rd season of amphetamine testing. If that was the cause, you’d need to show that the overall offense for 2006 onwards was significantly worse than previous years.
Wow. The Yankees left 2 men on base again w/o scoring a run, and this time with of all players Cano hitting a blooper to the SS that he couldve caught w/o a glove for the 3rd out. Im shocked.
I said this on Tuesday night and i’ll say it again, Cano might be the worse looking hitter on the planet right now, but he sure can turn a double-play with the best of them.
Is it just me or is this strike zone ridiculous? Seems like Blanton’s getting all the close calls and Pettitte’s getting none…
Ridiculous is this pathetic offense so far.
LoL, I said fuck like ten times during the time it took for that ball to land in Johnny Damon’s glove.
CURE Auto Insurance owns.
Good job Andy, a 3-0 deficit wouldve basically ended this game with the way the offense has been going.
I cant believe the Lakers r gonna lose this game.
The Lakers just blew a 24-point lead, when did Billy Wagner move to Los Angeles? Zing!
He shouldnt be allowed to have “Enter Sandman” as his entrance song anymore, its an insult to Mo.
It’s an insult to Metallica. And they suck.
Yeah i dont like anything Metallica did, not compared to AC/DC, Guns n Roses etc, but i admit i only have one Metallica song in my iPod, and its “Enter Sandman”!!!!
C’mon ARod we need u now!!
Why do opposing fans outside of Boston, Seattle and Texas hate Alex Rodriguez so much? This guy hasn’t done anything wrong in his career, is it wrong for him to maximize his earnings? God Damn.
Heh, the day he opted out we created a “Selfish Jerks” category, and the only label in it was “Alex Rodriguez.” I know why they feel like that.
It doesnt help that he is a Yankee now and got an ever bigger contract than he had before.
Are you serious right now? The guy can come off as extremely self-centered, arrogant, and money-hungry – even Yankee fans should be able to see that
C’mon Matsui we need u now!!
Guess the ump decided to squeeze Cupcakes as well. That sounds so wrong.
HAPPY B’DAY Matsui!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sayonara, Matsui!
Nice catch by the Yankee fan.
DOMO ARRIGATOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
BANZEIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I LOVE THAT DUDE.
Domo Arrigato Mr. Roboto.
Did that guy catch it or not? It seemed to disappear in the black but he raised his hand up quick like he made the catch. Or maybe he was just celebrating the HR.
Jesus Christ, the Lakers play defense as bad as the freakin Knicks.
I’m just as floored as you are man, disgusting.
You know what though, the Celtics won 66 games, they have 3 potential future HOFers on their team and quite honestly deserve to win the championship this season. They better win it now though cause the Lakers will probably win 3 in a row starting next season.
WTF happened? I flipped back a while ago, and it was like, 45-21…
Lakers straight up collapsed in the 2nd half.
I fucking hate Boston sports teams.
Man, I really don’t want to have to listen to Boston fans if/when the Celtics win the title. Nothing says “I’m a big fucking douchebag” quite like a Red Sox hat or a Celtics jersey.
How bout a Tom Brady jersey??
Oooo good one. Add that to the list.
Anything to do with Boston just makes me sick…it doesnt help that My neighbor is a boston native makes sure I know about every boston victory in the past ten years..uchhhhh I hate that effen guy…
Let’s not get too excited. Andy is going to do what he does best this year. Give back leads.
Wow guy, wow.
Thats my lame attempt to reverse jinx it. It has worked several times this year, including the comeback versus giambi. I’ve never tried this one Andy yet.
Im a genius.. It worked again!
If Ray Lewis can go on trial for murder and still be considered a fan favorite outside of divisional cities then Alex Rodriguez should not be disliked for making some news on his contract.
Dude I went to school in Maryland with tons of kids from outside the state. Literally every person I ever met hated Ray Lewis with a passion. There were several “murderer” chants aimed in his direction when he showed up at Terps sporting events. Who do you know that’s a fan of his?
Living in Miami, i can tell u he is a legend to Canes fans.
A lot of my friends who play football I know always mention him as a favorite player of theirs. Obviously a lot of the Miami U players back him and ESPN definitely favors him.
Only way Jeter avoids hitting into a DP, hitting the ball too slow!!
So how about those Mets, eh? Nice work by Billy Wagner again earlier this afternoon.
The chic in “Hairspray”, is she really that fat or is it a suit?
Where the hell did that come from?
She is that fat, saw her at the MTV Movie Awards.
Veras in the 8th?
Apparently Pettitte in the 8th.
Carlos Gonzales as a candidate for Chevy Player of the Game??? Seriously???
seriously….where did that come from?
I was refering to the fat chick in hairspray comment…
Shouldve been referring to both.
I was flipping through, found it on HBO.
I actually late last night watched Mr.Bean’s Holliday on one of the HBO channels!!! Its so stupid, but i still laughed my ass off at some of his stupid stuff.
Rowan Atkinson kicks ass.
MR Bean is the king of Silent Comedy..as famous as he is he is over rated….he deff kicks ass
Over-rated? Or do you mean under-rated?
I say under-rated!!!!!
my bad it was a typo…i meant UNDER RATED….I hope Rowen could find it in his heart to forgive me
Mr Bean is da man!!!
Ugh I’m still reeling from that Celtics win. I can’t believe Boston sports right now. Thank god for the Giants or we’d be living in sports hell
Couldn’t agree more.
very true. exept I really cany get the enjoyment cause Im a J-E-T-Sn fan (unfortunatley)
Wow the big southpaw is comin back out
Ben I was serious, we should make that the open thread for Monday’s day off. I’m sure I am not the only one who is dumbfounded by their failures and it would be interesting what kind of ideas people would have to fix them.
Which one? The Mets or A-Rod?
To fix the Mets just move them to another city where there isnt any pressure and media.
Los Mets.
Pettitte is back baby!!
Why is pettite not trying to finish…classic case of tony larusa syndrom. over managing really bugs me
I understand that Andy Pettitte delivered 113 pitches but is it absolutely necessary to go to Mariano Rivera. I guess it is better to err on the side of caution if Jose Veras or Edwar Ramirez blew up.
You didnt complain when he pitched 4 days in a row, but now you do!!! I just hope the extra workload doesnt catch up with him…
I’m a fan of Complete Games, they are so rare. Also with that dry ass heat in Texas we might need Mariano for all three games with their offense so I want him to have as much rest as possible.
Yeah Mo for all 3 games in Houston aint happening.
Well at least Marco Scutaro isnt on the A’s anymore.
Mo’s ERA+ has gone from 1185 to 619 to 459 in the last week. He’s clearly finished. Time to cut our losses and DFA him.
Come on mo…. you better not pull a wagner!
I cant stand Ellis.. Why do all these scrubs keep having great series against us? Why can’t our scrubs have a good series or two?
Ellis actually is a pretty good 2b, had an excellent season either last season or in 06 not quite sure.
Ellis had one season over 300, his lifetime avg is 270, he’s a glove guy that shouldn’t be hitting this well
Mo is a GOD.
Vintage MO
Phew, I was getting worried at the beginning there. Good win Yankees!
BALL GAME OVER YANKEES WIN THEEEEEEEEEEEEE YANKEEEEES WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!
Love that bookbag!!!
Dominance does not begin to explain Mariano Rivera.
Helluva interview by Kim Jones with Matsui.
Matsui don’t need no English. He’s so rich, he has people to speak English for him.
He knows his English all right, just not anything that can be uttered outside of the Playboy channel, LoL.
Nice win tonight. Good night everybody.
This is how the #1 and #2 pitchers in your rotation are supposed to pitch. Both pitched into the 8th inning – with Pettitte completing the 8th – and allowed just two Earned Runs between them. Outside of that big inning in the middle game the Yankee staff has allowed just four Earned Runs in the three games this series. Nice.
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