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Follow us on TwitterKyle Farnsworth may actually help the Yankees
Posted by: Ben K. in Analysis. Tagged: Kyle FarnsworthIt seems that Krazy Kyle isn’t so enthused about the Yankee fans these days. Via David Waldstein at The Star Ledger:
The Yankees reliever was forced out of the game after reaching out for a batted ball and needed three stitches, but not before giving up home run No. 601 to Griffey.
The fans cheered Griffey’s overall accomplishment as he rounded the bases, and Farnsworth couldn’t hide his disappointment in the gesture — especially because some fans had the gall to cheer as Farnsworth was later escorted off the mound by trainer Gene Monahan.
“I have no comment about that,” he said tersely.
When Farnsworth left the game yesterday afternoon, the comments in the game thread here on RAB expressed similar sentiments. A few people wished injury about Farnsworth and hoped he would be out longer than the few days Yankee manager Joe Girardi suggested.
But a few other fans offered up different takes. As Old Ranger wrote:
Real Yankee fans don’t want to see Fansy out. Only those that don’t see how much he is helping the team. Not everyone can be MO, Farnsy is OK, not great but OK.
And therein lies the rub. Is Kyle Farnsworth helping the team? On the season, his numbers are decidedly average. His ERA — a poor indication of a reliever’s success — is 4.05, a shade under the league average of 4.09. He’s thrown 33 innings and with 30 strike outs and 12 walks, much better numbers than his 2007 effort (27 BB, 48 K, 60 IP). But he’s also given up nine home runs already this year, and his WHIP stands at 1.47, a higher mark than his 2007 number (1.45). He’s given up runs in 11 of his 32 appearances this year.
From a more sabermetric perspective, Kyle has a 4.7 VORP, making Kyle as a reliever a bit better than league average. Baseball Prospecuts figures he’s added about 1.25 wins over replacement level, with replacement level being defined as whatever is available. For better or worse, 76 games into the Yankees 2008 season, that number puts him second in the bullpen behind only Mariano Rivera.
Now when the time comes, the Yankees may have better internal options. Of J.B. Cox, David Robertson and Mark Melancon, the odds are good that at least one of them turns out better than replacement level. My money’s on Melancon, but perhaps, we’ll be surprised by two or three of them. The question these pitchers may soon force is this: Are they better than Kyle Farnsworth? Right now, no one knows.
We may hate Farnsworth for the heart attacks he gives us; we may hate him because he hates us. But he’s not totally useless. Yet.
Popularity: 2% [?]
Also from a Sabermetric standpoint, he has a 1.00 WPA (basically wins above average, by situation). which is second-best on the team (among pitchers) He’s been better in high-leverage situations than in low-leverage ones, as evidenced by his positive clutch score.
I’m actually shocked that this is the case. I’m just reporting facts, but they’re hard to believe.
We need to collectively as Yankee fans try and support Kyle when he comes back. I can only imagine how tough it is for a farm boy to come into Yankee stadium as a Yankee and be hated as much as he is and then be expected to pitch well. We need to give him some support so he can put up some decent numbers and we can trade his bum ass for something of value.
I laughed at his reaction when he looked at his hand. He thought he was fine till he looked at his hand and was like AW SHIT, not again. He called out Gene(with the same hand) and just walked off the field.
how long will he be out of action anyways?
By the way, who would you think is the front runner for a relief pitcher to come up to the bigs. Melancon, Cox(after the DL stint), or robertson?
I bet on MelanMan here because J.B. Cox really isn’t far ahead experience-wise, and Mark is racking up the innings a little too quickly (according to the TJ Watch on the side). If I have confidence in anyone to bounce back from a rough MLB debut/cupcoffee its Mark Melancon.
I’d say Robertson or Cox come up first seeing as Melancon is still in AA. They’ll take it slow with him and make sure they do it right. Besides, Robertson and Cox are doing very well in AAA so why wouldn’t they get a shot (Strikland is a possibility too)
Cox is just coming back from the dead-arm so it’s probably Robertson or Strickland
I’m just tired of Farnsworth. I never wanted anyone to leave the Yankees as much as I want him to go. He’s not totally useless, but his personality makes him real hard to cheer for.
But I agree the last thing that bull pen needs is to lose another arm even if it’s Farnsworth.
Kevin Brown
Good one, but I want him to go even more then him.
Kevin Brown was heinous. The Big Unit was also a big unit, if you know what I mean. Farnsworth’s personality is toxic as well and I can’t root for him also. The problem is that he was hired as an elite set up guy and his numbers, proven by the article, are pedestrian. His straight-as-an-arrow fastball and average slider often end up in the seats. He has a propensity for giving up the long ball.
Baloney on the post.. Kyle is our 8th inning guy and he is league av. of all relief pitchers.. if he ws our 111th arm out of the pen that is 1 thing but he is our supposed 2nd best option..
I dislike Kyle but would not ever boo him especially if he got hurt. I just do not want him on the team but will gladly keep him o nthe team if he is our 4th option in the pen.
no way all 3 of the top pen prospects would not be better then him and if they all were not at least we would find out.
he give up runs in 33% of his outings and NEVER pitches more then an inning and almost never comes in with men on base.. they line everything up for him and he still stinks..
GUYS he stinks how hard is that to figure out….I can name 30 + relief pitchers besides closers who are better then him.. Look at Jim Johnsons #’s on the orioles, look at Marmol even after his melt down the other day, dan wheeler is better then Kyle….
There is no debate kyle is bad especially considering he is our 8th inning guy…
“no way all 3 of the top pen prospects would not be better then him”
Be careful have we not learn anything this season about hyping up the farm guys.
But I think you have a point especially with this kid David Robertson.
Please, name them! 27/08?
IPK- I’m not giving up on him, but I think we can all agree he has not lived up to expectations.
Hughes- Again I think we will be fine when he gets health, but he is now on his second long trip on the DL.
Shelley Duncan- a big surprise when he first came up people had him pencil in for an outfield spot then the league caught up to him.
Alberto Gonzalez- batted .300 in winter ball and people had Jeter looking for an outfield glove.
Now before everyone starts jumping all over me I’M NOT saying these guys are bust because their still young they just have not lived up to the hype SO FAR.
Agreed, surprisingly.
What? Wait a minute maybe I’m not reading this write.
LOL
Thank you.
I agree that they haven’t lived up to expectations yet. It’s hard for someone to say otherwise. It’s when people start proclaiming them busts that I get annoyed.
Of course they are not busts I just think players need to prove themselves before they get handed the keys to the city.
Someone once said the biggest jump for a player in sports is between the minors and MLB I totally agree with that.
Amen to that.
This is the only reason I (sometimes) play the devils advocate with players such as Ohly, Farnsy etc. One tends to put high projections on some of the guys, because; we want them to live up to the enthusiasm we have for them.
Let’s be optimist, but also realist with these guys, some will make it big…others will fall by the wayside, just fact of baseball. 27/08?
Totally agree.
why is Kyle grded on a curve???
ANy objective measurement he is a total disaster as the 8th inning guy…
look at his #’s compared to ; broxton, heath bell, mahay, even delcarmon, johnson, downs, pered on Clev., marmol, howry, the white sox 8th inning guy, the list is endless.. Yeah teams that really suck can use him but that is it…..
Kyle stinks why even debate it.. It is like asking is freddie Bynum a good SS or corey patterson a good CF, the answers are no..
Actually, any objective measurement shows he’s helping. That’s the whole point. It’s Yankee fans’ subjective “analysis” that leads people to believe he isn’t helping.
Could other relievers help more? Yes. But it’s not nearly as easy as you would think to find those guys.
Farnsworth wasn’t brought to the Yankees to be a league average reliever. He was brought in to be an elite set up man. He also isn’t being paid like it. I root for Farnsworth every time he is out there because hes an entertaining character but to pretend like Yankee fans don’t have a reason to be aggrivated with the guy is foolish.
I don’t agree with the entertaining character part, but I totally agree with everything else well put.
So statistics would say he’s a slice above league average…mixed that in with the fact that he’s in his walk year which means he’d have pretty decent value to a contending team, as a 3 month rental?? Sounds great to me. By now we all expect for Melancon, Cox, and possibly Robertson come up and usurp Farnz and Hawkins for their spots…what we didn’t expect is Jose Veras to emerge as he has as a capable 8Th inning guy. He’s a big 6′5, 235 Lbs with mid 90’s heat and a good slider. Farnz can bring something half decent in return for him, while Hawkins might be able to bring a decent bag of baseballs in return for him…A win win
I’m actually a huge Veras fan for his curve. He can throw it for strikes and it’s just nasty
Was Al Aceves promoted to Scranton? Bill madden says so in his article in NYDN but i can’t find it anywhere else, so is it just more of his drunken BS
he did get it right on McCutcheon, right? i mean, he was like 2 weeks early, but i guess he just got the jump on eveyone else.
You shouldn’t have a league average era when you are a one inning relief pitcher. League average takes into account all the guys who actually start. That wasn’t a league average among setup men, was it?
He’s getting paid a lot of money for a failing 8th inning guy. He might be playing league average…but the average failed middle relief pitcher isn’t making what Kyle is making…
Kyle is bad for our health…just like a cigarette…and it’s time to put him out…
Other BP pitchers don’t pitch for the Yanks!
Yes, he give everyone a hart attack, but for now (other then Veras) who else? 27/08?
What is the love affair everyone has with JB Cox? Look deeper folks…he strikes very few out and pitches to a TON of contact. This is ok for a starter, but if you can’t get swing and misses at least sometimes, especially when you often have to come in with runners on base, you are not very valuable. He doesn’t throw very hard, and can’t get a swing a miss when he needs it. The Yankees have MUCH better bullpen options…Patterson for one.
here’s how Kyle is going to help us…..what type of a free agent will he be? what will we get when he signs a 3 year deal with Detroit, for example?
i’d imagine he’ll be a Type B and yield the Yankees a sandwich pick.
thats not enough for me to be agravated for the next 3 months watching him run in from the bullpen.
i agree.
but i see no reason to think that the bullpen in August is going to look like it does now.
i think Cashman will do what he did last year and re-make the bullpen at the deadline. Hawkins will be gone, Farns *might* be traded, and 1-2 of the guys in Scranton will be called up.
last year, he traded Proctor, released Myers, and called up Joba.
we might see Strickland get a shot. Traber will definitely be gone. Britton or Bruney might be back. maybe Robertson or Cox.
the Yankees have a ton of options, and they are going to wind up with a pretty good pen by the end of the year.
I’d be real happy with a sandwich pick for Farns……if the others are correct, this is the least we will see from him……if traded, I would hope we’d do better, but I keep remembering that Joba was a sandwich pick…….
If Eric freaking Gagne was a Type B last year, Farns will be. Maybe he even sneaks into Type-A territory if he has a strong second half.
As one of the people that ‘wished’ him to be hurt let me clarify again - I don’t wish him to be hurt at all. However I want him used in the situations he’s great in - no one on base, more than 2 run lead, not used back to back days or innings.
I see it as a temporary Scott Proctor sort of victory - he was sent to LA so Joe wouldn’t use him anymore. Farns has great stuff but for fuck’s sake use him in the situations he’ll do excellent in and fans will cheer him on.
I still don’t understand why anyone would cheer Ken Griffey Jr though…
If Kyle Farnsworth doesn’t want the Yankee faithful to boo him or cheer when he goes down, he should pitch better.
He gets paid big bucks to be much better than he is. To continue my thoughts from yesterday, I didn’t wish him hurt as in pain. I wasn’t sorry he will be out for a while. I can do without him. when I said “Please be hurt.” I meant please be out for a while. I need a vacation from you.
Kyle is freaking crazy and we all know that. Crazy is fine so long as you can pitch and I’ve had it with his pitching and what he gets paid to be so bad.
I wouldn’t wish pain on anyone and I wouldn’t cheer for Junior though I like him. I would never cheer for an opposing player at the Stadium unless they got plunked and went down and it seemed serious and then they got up. Then I would cheer their return.
As for Farnsworth, I couldn’t care less what he thinks of the Yankee fans. He gets paid a lot to do a job he doesn’t do well.
The reason I think a lot of people get down on Farnsworth(less) is that we all want a shut-down bullpen. We see Farns come in with his 1.47 WHIP and 7.94 k/9IP when we know that Veras (1.18 WHIP, 7.94 k/9IP) and Edwar (1.29 WHIP, 9.00 K/9IP) are out there and fully rested.
The worst part is, he should be much better than this. I mean his stuff blows Veras and Edwar’s out of the water. The guy can pull back and throw a hundred miles an hour and has a huge breaking slider. The guy should be Joba-dominant with his stuff but for some reason just sucks. Maybe he needs to actually learn to throw this “cutter” I hear he’s tinkering with.
What I think is more telling about Farns is his groundball rate. The guy used to get 50% of his outs on the ground (52% in 2005 for ATL, 47% for DET) but in his first two years as a Yankee it went down to 33%. A 10-20% reduction in GB% is a huge difference
I think Kyle is much better as a 7th inning guy, not an 8th inning setup guy. He is just too inconsistent to be trusted in that role, I always cheer for him, but lets face it. No matter how well he does, Yankee fans are always gonna brace for the worst when he comes in becuase he has failed more times than he has succeeded here.
Farnsworth has given up an ER in 51 of his 169 appearances as a Yankee.
i would say he has succeeded much more than he has failed.
i don’t like Farnsworth. i will be happy to see him gone next year.
but at the same time, we tend to remember his failures and forget when he does his job.
Earned runs are a dumb measure to go by, for relievers.
In 2008, opposing hitters have a .307/.369/.598 line against him. Know how many hitters in the AL have a .967 OPS? Four. Kyle Farnsworth makes any hitter look like an MVP candidate. And that is not who I want protecting my lead.
Earned runs are a dumb measure to go by, for relievers.
that depends if the pitcher tends to pitch complete innings or not.
Farnsworth tends to come in at the beginning of an inning and pitches the entire inning.
in that case, ERs are not a “dumb” measure.
and to take your numbers further, this is how Farnsworth does in different situations:
high leverage: .194/.326/.361
medium leverage: .423/.464/.962
low leverage: .323/.357/.585
so, yes, Farnsworth has been hit hard this year, but when the game is close, he has been pretty effective.
is that nothing more than a coincidence? probably. or maybe when he has a little bit of lead he just throws fastballs and tries to let the hitters get themselves out.
or maybe he just sucks.
The accounting for inherited runners is only one reason why earned runs, and ERA, are ineffective measures of relievers. The other is sample size, and the background of the statistic. A reliever who has a ton of good outings and one crappy one (say in a mop-up role), he’s going to have the same ERA as a reliever who had a bunch of average appearances. As far as I can tell, Farnsworth has not had one of those “throw him to the wolves” type outings, like Girardi likes to do with Ohlendorf or Hawkins. Just four of his appearances have come in games decided by more than four runs.
Secondly, the ERA statistic was originally intended to compare starters who have pitched different numbers of innings. It’s meant to be extrapolated to how he would do if he pitched a whole game. Relievers, by definition, are not expected to pitch the whole game. If one only compares ERAs of different relievers, then that should be okay, but the expectation is that good relievers should have, on average, better ERAs than starters. This makes Farnsworths’ 4.42 ERA look much much worse.
Relievers, by definition, are not expected to pitch the whole game. If one only compares ERAs of different relievers, then that should be okay, but the expectation is that good relievers should have, on average, better ERAs than starters. This makes Farnsworths’ 4.42 ERA look much much worse.
i completely agree with all of this.
i was just saying that if Farns pitches entire innings, his ERA isn’t “misleading” in the way a reliever who comes in and allows lots of inherited runners to score, as you pointed out.
his 4.24 is what it is, and it is up to us to place that in proper context.
good point about Hawkins and sample size. Hawkins has actually been better than his ERA shows, since a lot of his ERs were clustered into a few bad performances where the game was already lost.
Not being a stat guy, let the derision begin, it seems the farnz is doing a better job in 08 than 07. I still am uncomfortable when he comes in, but we’re not seeing the melt downs we saw last year. On a differant note those jugheads that booed him coming off don’t really have a clue and are classless, just like Griffey when he didn’t acknowledge the fans after his homer.
Farnsy would not be my 1st pitcher for 8th inning work. Unlike some others, I think there maybe different reasons for his sometimes dismal work with the Yanks. His fastball is flat and fat, for one…with no zone command. The harder he throws, the less Command he has…this is not news to the Yanks. He must learn to throw the Cutter.
Actually, the best pitcher (BP) we have (other then Mo) is Chris; ERA 1.29, ERA+318…with the next being Ramzy at 2.74 and 149. Who would have thunk? Anyhow, Fansworth is not Joba or Mo, but he is a Yankee…let’s wish him well! 27/08?
The only way Farnsworth could possibly hurt the team, is if because of his presence in the pen the Yankees decide not to make a pen upgrade because they consider him good enough.
Otherwise I’ve never been a huge Farns guy, but the guy isn’t as bad as we make him out to be, sure he gives up some home runs on 0-2 counts after making a guy look lost on the first 2 pitches, but lately he’s been good enough, lights out when you need him to be, good enough when that gets it done. It could be worse, Hawk could be the set-up guy.
Absolutely right. That’s the only way he could hurt the team.
Well, that, and giving up home runs. Those are the two ways he could hurt the team.
He is a mediocre pitcher who would pitch all-right for a mediocre team in moderately-stressful situations, and he would make SportsCenter every few weeks for hitting 100mph on the gun or striking out someone with a wicked slider if he was in Baltimore or Washington or St. Louis.
Irrespective of stats and “league-average” valuations, he is not, and should not be, the 2nd most valuable reliever on a championship-contending team.