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River Ave BluesSo that Ian Kennedy start. Pretty impressive, eh?
In case you’re joining us already in progress, Kennedy, the exiled and highly-regarded pitching prospect, came within one out of a seven-inning no-hit, no-walk performance for AAA Scranton this evening. He ended the game throwing seven, allowing no earned runs, one hit — a run-scoring double after a Chris Basak error — no walks and seven strike outs. He threw 61 of 92 pitches for strikes and was about as good as it gets.
With this start, Kennedy thrust himself back into the Bronx picture. No longer can we ignore him every five days, pretending that he isn’t there. In fact, Kennedy’s rehab and subsequent progress at AAA had to, inevitably, lead to this point. While he started out July on a mediocre foot, since landing in Scranton, Kennedy finds himself sporting a 2.73 ERA. He has struck out 19 over 26.1 innings and has a WHIP of 0.99. Remember that number.
Over the next few days and weeks, Kennedy’s name will begin to resurface more frequently in New York. If he pitches well, he will become a replacement option for either Sidney Ponson and his 1.72 WHIP in the Bronx or Darrell Rasner, coming off a nice start but still sporting a 6.42 ERA over 47.2 innings since June 1. Kennedy’s name will also appear in other forms. With this outing tonight, he has re-established himself as one of the biggest trade chips in the Yankee organization. He doesn’t appear to be untouchable as Phil Hughes, Austin Jackson, Mark Melancon and Jesus Montero are, and teams will be drawn to his talent and ability as well as his pedigree.
So what are the Yanks do to? At some point, they’ll have to replace Rasner, Ponson or both. The two just don’t have the numbers or stuff to be what the Yankees need with Chien-Ming Wang out, and Kennedy is now a prime candidate to replace either sooner rather than later. But if the right trade offer comes along, Kennedy could be gone.
Despite his early-season Major League struggles, I’d still like to see the Yankees hold on to Kennedy. Thrity-seven innings do not a career make. But will the brass see it the same way? Only time will tell. One thing, though, is for certain: Ian Patrick Kennedy is back on the radar.
I see IPK as perfect trade bait. I am not denying hs talent and still think he wll be a jon leber type 3-4 starter in the majors, but assumng the yankees sign sabathia this offseason, they will have a relatively young rotation with Wang Sabathia, Joba and Hughes leading the way for the next 5-6 years. Wthin that time, you have to think that this organization, stocked wth young pitchng talent, will produce more arms.
if it means a big tme hitter now that they can have for a few years
“I see IPK as perfect trade bait. ”
Agree.
I’m not sure christopher would feel the same way about trading IPK for Fuentes, as the Rockies have proposed, or including IPK in a trade package for Bay or Nady, who are decent OFs, but not AL All-Stars, as the Pirates have proposed.
I haven’t seen a trade yet involving IPK that made sense. That doesn’t mean that one won’t happen, it just means that we shouldn’t talk about trading IPK for the sake of trading IPK, in a vacuum, without a real trade in front of us.
And, I don’t see one.
IPK for fuentes - NO way
may onsder hm for bay straght up
fot fuentes– no way
straight up for bay and i consider it
straight up for Bay? you really think the Pirates would do that?
and you realize Jason Bay is a All Star OF, right?
If the team gets Washburn, then IPK becomes expendable. He ould be part of a deal for an OF right handed bat like Hollyday, Bay or Nady. A package of him, Cox and Betances is a good one.
A 34-year-old pitcher with an ERA+ of 84, a opponent’s OPS of .818, and a career-high H/9 of 10.72 this year does not make 23-year-old Ian Kennedy “expendable”.
I made a pretty good argument for Wash, Jamal, it’s on my link. But yeah I agree with the point you make. IPK’s status should be in Ponson/Rasner’s hands, not Washburn’s.
LoL, I did as well a few threads back. That’s why I chuckled a bit as I was writing that previous comment. I have no issue acquiring Jarrod Washburn, if the deal is centered around Kei Igawa, but the notion that Washburn’s fate somehow has any bearings on that of Ian Kennedy’s is just not right.
I can’t believe that one of those beat writers, don’t remember which, reported that GARDNER AND MELKY are in discussion as well. Come on! Even Gardner - why? I see why Seattle would try to milk us, but come on, throw Vidro at us if you must and be on your merry way with The Ghost.
the reason why i see Washburn’s acquisition impacting Kennedy is because of the simple math for next year’s rotation.
assuming Wang, Pettitte, Joba, and then Washburn, you have but one spot left to start next season… i have a really big hunch that SAbathia is going to be that pitcher.
so now, you have Hughes and IPK left outside looking in, and thats not even including the possibility that they maybe resign Moose.
i would gather they have more invested in Hughes than IPK, and a handful of young arms that will be another year closer to contributing.
If IPK can be packaged to get a significant player to help down the stretch this season, and be here for next season and/or beyond, i think the Yankees will do it.
in fact, just IMO, i think the Yankees will float both IPK and Hughes out there and see what type of player they can get for each, and whoever brings back more value i think will be the one to go.
at this point, with IPK’s performance and Hughes’ injuries, i wonder if they quetly believe IPK projects to help the big league club more over the next couple years than Hughes will.
Why does everyone assume Pettitte will come back? He’s not under contract and he pretty much had to have his arm twisted to come back for ‘08.
I’m not saying he won’t come back — I’m just saying it’s probably like 50/50. Far from being a done deal…
He has a player option for next year
Mathwise, having 5 good starting pitchers is a bad idea.
Having 7 good starting pitchers is a good idea.
Thinking that we need to move IPK because he’s somehow “blocked” by a walking definition of a stopgap named Jarrod Washburn is not good foresight.
Hughes will be on a IP limit next year and is unlikely to start the season in New York. To make room when he is ready Washburn could be either traded or shifted to the bullpen. A hunch regarding Sabathia, even a really big one, is just a wish at this point in time. Pettitte will likely be interested in pitching in the new stadium, but who knows? Washburn won’t block anyone in 2009, but he would provide some insurance.
Thanks for the blog compliments. The Chuck Norris thing was mad funny dude. Haha, you should write a blog man, you are friggin’ better known than some of the guys on River Ave Blues
no their off-season plans (sabathia) makes him somewhat expendable
And no, adding Sabathia STILL doesn’t make IPK expendable.
I’m not ruling out trading him, but adding Sabathia to a Joba/Wang/Pettite/Moose/Washburn corps doesn’t make ANY of our young pitchers “expendable”, because we have to assume that the last three names on that list are not long for the pinstripes, so new holes will be created in no time…
best post title since “Gagne heading to Boston?”
Heh, you know today is just a month past the 45th anniversary of that speech?
Sorry, I’m learning German now and just have to point out…it’s “kandidat”.
Back to the topic, though I’ve been a Kennedy hater, I still hope he can work out for the Yanks. Players from our own farm succeeding makes me feel even happier than seeing signed players perform well for no special reason.
Hey, no German on this site please, it’s kind of the language of, erm, evil. Being Polish I can say this.
IPK in Colorado just seems like a bad idea to me though, I’m not sure Colorado is sold on him. Let’s let him pitch. I also wrote an article on why Mark Teixeira sucks, on my blog, if anyone is interested. It’s my link.
Joe, I think there’s some issue with your arguement on Teix.
1. your using this year, Teix is having a career norm year, while Berkman is having a career year.
2. in terms of career, Berkman is about 10 points better than Teix in terms of OPS+, however over the last 5 years (since he’s about 5 years older than Teix) he’s only had 1 season where his career OPS+ wasn’t above his career.
3. Using Pujols to compare with anyone not named A-rod or Bonds is unfair.
4. Inflation adjustments
5. marginal values and supply comparasons?
Considering all these. he’s probably still not worth 10/200, but something like 7/130-140 might make some sense.
Yes, you found me out. I got a bit overzealous and editorialized the hell out of the concept. Simply put I don’t want him in pinstripes for anything more than 5/90, and we all know that that is impossible.
didnt read your blog, but i do feel that tex will be far and away the most over paid FA out there
“Hey, no German on this site please, it’s kind of the language of, erm, evil. Being Polish I can say this.”
Joltin Joe, this is a ridiculous statement. Take your xenophobia somewhere else. Anyone who paints a people with a single brush is absolutely ignorant in my book. Open your eyes.
Wait. Really? You do know he was joking, right?
Geno is short for Genocide
haha wow
German should be a romance language. It sounds so gentile and soothing.
Spreken zie Deutsch, fraulein?
Headline to closing line, that was well written, Ben.
Pitchers who command 4 MLB quality pitches should be able to get big league hitters out multiple times through a lineup. I thought IPKs problem was that he was simply bat-shy. Pitchers like him need to stay aggressive, and he wasn’t.
I also would have liked to see Girardi tell him NOT to shake off Molina. He was thinking too much out there, simplify his task. Tell him “get the sign, execute the pitch”. Let Molina take responsibility for what happens after that. ONe of his problems was he was falling into similar pitch patterns the 2nd and 3rd time through the lineup he faced. MLB hitters will make you pay for that. Girardi likes to let pitcher “make the pitch that they believe in” but for a young pitcher who is over thinking things out there I’d take that out of his hands.
He also spent very little time in the minors (even for a college pitcher) and maybe it all came a little too fast and a little too easy for him. Comments like “I know what I can do at this level” bugged me. You have to respect the game, it will humble even the best veteran players. A rookie like him needs to learn that.
I’d give him Rasner’s next start vs the O’s before I pull the trigger on any trades. All he really needs is to gain some experience in order to be an effective back of the rotation starter. He can’t get that at AAA.
He pitched today right? So then Raspberry’s next start is Monday, and IPK would have to go on 3 days rest. I don’t know anything about his personal response to that, but if he’s pitching well, and getting into a good rhythm *including workouts and side sessions between starts*, then, ya know….if it ain’t broke….
Or more accurately, if you just recently spot-welded it together, don’t go pounding on the fault lines.
I was a big Kennedy fan when he came up for his two or three starts last year, just really liked what I saw. I was disappointed that he wasn’t on the postseason roster. I thought it was because he wanted to get married, but I really think it was because of injury…I seem to remember them saying that…..or maybe it was an innings cap, someone tell me.
I think he can pitch well. I hated seeing him struggle also, but look at Moose. I think, permiting a little digression, that we should keep Moose next year, and trot out there a rotation of: *certain people like to disparage my puffed-up hopes that they’ll sign CC AND Sheets, so I won’t include Sheets*
Wang
Joba
CC
Andy
Moose
Keep Hughes in long relief, I guess a la what’s currently being done with Melancon @ AA, and have a super-valuable backup starter ready to go. I don’t remember when the starting 5 didn’t have some kind of problem with at least one of them, usually very early in the season.
Ok, back to Kennedy. Another reason we should keep Moose is so he can teach Kennedy the things he’s put together this year, to really dominate with only memories of overpowering stuff, and really crisp versions of what he does have. And this varies day to day, pitchers like this need to be able to identify whats working and what’s not that day. They have many different pitches to choose from, so choosing wisely and not deluding yourself into thinking this pitch or that pitch will work because it should on paper, but doesn’t feel good coming out of your arm.
I love that style of pitching, and I think Moose, a la Greg Maddux, can keep it up. He’s got the wiliness, the intelligence, and the tenacity to hang around until he’s truly done. The level of his stuff as we see it, in my opinion, can continue for 2 years, maybe three, with the pitch count and IP decreasing gradually. But 5 IP of what we just saw for 8 aint half bad.
Plus, they could do a mock-father-son limbo competition, although they’d have to bend backwards rather than their usual forwards.
Also, I didn’t mean mop-up Latrine Hawkins janitors duty. Or Giese’s position as the lone-long-underused-ranger. I meant stretching him out to multiple relief innings, maybe in close games, so he can be ready to spot if/when someone goes down.
Not that I think anyone’s actually still up *on the West Coast* or getting up yet *on the East*
Maybe some of you Mountain/Central fans though…..
Boy, I knew this was coming IPK has back to back good starts in AAA and here we go again. If he can help that’s great, but this is not the time to start what they tried at the beginning of the season. All I see is trade value going up.
agreed. i simply see this at this point as perfect timing for the Yankees to be able to move him for a fairly significant trade piece at the deadline.
I’m not sure that Kennedy’s trade value could be much lower (triple A no hitters dont help trade value), so I’m not sure that it makes much sense for the Yanks to deal him.
im pretty sure AAA no hitters do help trade value… remember were trading a prospect here, its not like we sent mussina down to AAA and everyone expected him to dominate
Right, but 7 inning triple A no hitters against a weak hitting team doesn’t exactly help your trade value when you have a 7.41 ERA and a whip of 1.75 in the majors.
unless you have previous success at the MLB level, and a history of domination in the minor leagues.
its not like a Jason Jones who isnt really a prospect who goes out and has a great night.
IPK was a first round pick who blazed his way thru the minor leagues and hit a bump in the road. now he’s working to restore his value to where it once was.
I’m not sure that this would do it. I think his talent level is where it is at and has always been. He’s definitely on track to be at least a quality part of any rotation in the big leagues, let alone a team that has the highest payroll in the majors. I think him having success at the ML level would boost his trade value. This AAA stuff is designed for him to get back to where he needs to be from a innings level perspective and to make sure he’s ready to pitch in the majors again. Nothing more, nothing less.
The idea that this is to boost his trade value is laughable! This isn’t an unknown ripping up the minors. it’s the #1 pick of the 2006 draft of the yankees with a history of tearing up the minors. Who are we kidding? This kid can be good, but someone who think this is boosts his trade value is definitely wrong.
8 ML games in his second professional season.
That’s a ridiculous standard to hold someone to, especially with the pitching resume that IPK has.
Read my comment again. What did I actually say?
I said that his trade value doesn’t jump from a near 7 inning AAA no hitter. How would it? Teams and executives KNOW how how he’s going to perform and what his talent level is. Suddenly because of a 7 inning near no hitter he’;s that much more valuable? Unbelievable. Teams trade for prospects based on future ability, not past success.
Who’s holding him to high standards? 8 ML games and he’s struggled heavily. Does that mean he sucks? Of course not. But the fact that he did struggle means that his value is lower now than it was at the beginning of the season. Now he’s suddenly a valuable commodity because of a AA no hitter????
He’s 11 MLB starts, and he was really good in this three outings last year. Those count too.
No argument here, in all honesty I’m 100% on board with building up the rotation and the pen through the draft and minors development. I don’t think he’s worth as much as he should be as “trade bait” as some posters here have said, and i think that’s unarguable. I also don’t think it makes much sense to say his trade value’s being boosted with these AAA starts. We all know what Kennedy can do (he had a superlative start in toronto last year), so the idea that throwing no hit ball in AAA is boosting his value for a trade is fallacious. The Yanks know what he can do, so they’re trying to build him up to be in the rotation, nothing more, nothing less. He’s a #1 pick and reached the majors, blazing through 3 levels of the minors. How can anyone think that Kennedy can’t be an ace in the majors?
For the last 5 seasons, the Yankees have been one piece away and that philosophy has left them with how many world series titles and how many holes on their roster?
IPK stays, the most ambitious they should get with a trade is one for an uber OF prospect/hitter. Instead of chasing and overpaying for hitters at, or just past, their peak, just so we can watch them decline, I’d like to see a concerted effort to develop the next solid core of Yankees (a la 1994-5). The OF has holes, but over-paying for Bay or Holliday will only kick the can down the road a few years. Is 4 years of Holliday worth potentially 10-12 years of IPK?
“Is 4 years of Holliday worth potentially 10-12 years of IPK?”
yes, it is.
although, i dont know where you pull 4 years from… he’s a FA after 2009, so you have him for 1.5 years, and then if you sign/extend him, its gonna be for more than another 2.5 years.
The four years is based on how most hitters decline post-28/9. Bobby Abreu had a 145 OPS+ 4 years ago. Bay is already a horrid fielder. Holliday is without a doubt at his peak. So whoever trades for him will buying at his most expensive. It’s the same philosophy that the Yankees have been following for the last 7 years; buying into players at or past their peak. The result is an old team with injury problems and holes.
ah, gotcha.
i just dont get how Matt Holliday is old and passing his peak. He’s 28, and will be 29 for the 2009 season.
That’s a tough question to answer. Because we don’t really know what kind of pitcher Kennedy is.. so we have no idea how to project him over a decade.
And we also really don’t know what 4 years of Holliday - away from Coors’ Field - would look like.
If you’re trading a guy who’s gonna post ERAs just over/just under 4.00 pretty much every year for a poor defensive outfielder who suddenly can’t quite SLG .500.. maybe you’re right.
I’m not 100% opposed, but because I don’t think that IPK alone will get the job done for a guy at his peak value, I’m hesitant to gut a system that has few high-level prospects.
But smart organizations don’t trade good prospects for post-peak hitters. It’s the other way around.
Being completely objective, and not considering their yankee-dom, the three most valuable trade chips the Yankees have right now are Rivera, Jeter, and Damon. Now, not one will be traded, but can you imagine the haul for a 38 year old HOF closer having a CY Young season? Mo will likely have another 3 good years, I’m sure, but you could fleece a team in a pennant race for 20 years worth of prospects. Think of what the market for Fuentes is and triple it for Rivera. I could be wrong, but it’s an interesting thought.
“I could be wrong, but it’s an interesting thought.”
You’re forgetting his salary.
I have absolutely no interest in Holliday. Have you looked at his home/road splits? His stardom is a product of Coors.
.400 OBP on the road and the short right porch at the stadium would treat holliday quite well
just saying
i dont think the short porch in RF really would help Holliday much, actually. but i still think he’s a fine hitter.
I would like to see Kennedy get one or two extended looks with the team before making a blanket decision on trading him.
And while I would eventually hope one of our back-end starters would be upgraded this year (you’re right Ben.. we need a better than average 4th starter with Wang down), I don’t want to rush Kennedy… again.
Has the guy had even 10 total starts at the AAA level, even including these last rehab starts?
Maybe hang on to him for at least next season, feel him out. If the other kids in the system are better and progressing the positively, they will push him. If they aren’t, we’ll all be glad they didn’t trade him.
i guess you figure with the timing, he’ll have one more start in Scranton before we hit the deadline, right?
I’d like to leave him down there as long as possible. I don’t think a whole year would kill him at all.
But yeah, he should get one more start. Honestly.. it wouldn’t be a bad idea to think about upgrading Rasner and Ponson.
Earlier in the year they were swinging guys around that back end, with Rasner and Giese and some other guys getting starts and throwing their 2 cents in.
Maybe we can get somebody to replace one of the guys now, and let Kennedy continue on his roll and called up in mid-to-late August.