Open Thread: To buy or sell at the deadline

Remind me again why this game counts?
DeLaRosa takes a step forward

As baseball analysts raced to judge the CC Sabathia trade, an interesting tidbit emerged about the Yankees: They don’t, as I noted earlier, know their 2008 chances, and as the season rushes into the All Star break, the Yanks could go one of two ways.

If they finish strong in their last six games before the break and start the second half of the season with a few wins, they could close the gap in the AL or at least in the Wild Card race and emerge as serious contenders. If they stumble their way to the All Star break and lose a few games against some of their stronger opponents after the break, they could slip further behind in the playoff hunt. Or they could keep on treading water as they’re doing now, holding back too far in the division but not quite far enough in the Wild Card to figure out what’s happening.

So submitted for discussion, two scenarios:

The Yankees Should Be Sellers

The New York Yankees are old and underachieving. They’re a collection of overpaid, under-performing players past their prime spending too much time on the DL. The Yankees should sell.

Maybe they could move Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui for a few younger players. Maybe they could ship off Kyle Farnsworth while he’s in the middle of a solid stretch. Maybe they could foist Mike Mussina, in the middle of a latter-day career resurgence, onto the Phillies. Maybe they should look at some of their more expendable and younger players like Wilson Betemit, who doesn’t have a clear-cut role but could command a decent return, or Melky Cabrera, who has seemingly outlived his usefulness in the Bronx.

They should sell now because when 2009 rolls around, this team will have a whole new look. They could land CC Sabathia; they could sign Mark Teixeira. They’ll have a full year’s worth of Joba Chamberlain in the rotation, a repaired Chien-Ming Wang and a hopefully healthy Phil Hughes. Austin Jackson and Jesus Montero will be one year closer to the Bigs, and the 2009 team will look far different from the current iteration of the 2008 team. Sell. Sell. Sell.

The Yankees Should Be Buyers

Sell? Since when do the New York Yankees give up on a season? They’re just four games out of the Wild Card and only three in the loss column. Even the nine games between them and Tampa Bay — Tampa Freakin’ Bay! — isn’t that daunting. They’ve done it before; they could do it again.

No, my friend, the Yankees should buy. Brian Cashman has built up a stocked farm system, and one of the advantages of such a farm system is knowing who to keep and who should be traded for what when the time is right. They could use some of those pieces to acquire what they need — a right-handed bat, a top-line starter — to push them over the edge.

If they let Abreu, Mussina, Farnsworth and Giambi walk next year, they’ll land the draft picks to replenish the system. So why not buy and win this year? Anything short of the playoffs is simply unacceptable, and with $200 million and his potential job on the line, Cashman may need to let go of some of his vaunted prospects if he wants to see October or a new contract.

* * *

So there you go. What would you do with the 2008 New York Yankees? Sell the ones you can sell or hold to your Major League chips, jettison some kids and stock up for a stretch run?

Remind me again why this game counts?
DeLaRosa takes a step forward
  • NYFan50

    Matsui needs a knee operation and Damon is on the DL. It’s going to be tough moving either of them. The reality is that even if the Yankees WANT to be sellers, they have almost no parts to move. Certainly no parts that are going to bring back top prospects.

    • NYFan50

      To clarify: no parts they would be willing to part with that would bring back top prospects.

  • MD

    Can someone give an estimate of who’s coming off the books, and what it means in draft picks for us…..if next year is projected as being a banner year for talent, and we stand to add 4-5 sandwich picks, might it not be wise to just keep everyone and go as far as we can go this year, then have fun in next years free agent draft? of course some of this gets cancelled out by whomever we sign in the winter….someone out there must have some savvy on this item…

    • NYFan50

      Off the books:
      Farnsy (5.5M)
      Moose (11M)
      Hawkins (3.75M)
      Abreu (16M)
      Pettitte (16M)
      Giambi (21M)
      Pavano (11M)

      Total $84.25M. We stand to add significant picks if Type A free agents leave. I’m guessing if they keep up production, Moose and Giambi are surefire Type As, and Abreu/Pettitte are probably Bs. I’m guessing there. Good explanation of types and what they mean can be found here:

      http://members.aol.com/indiansreport/FAQ/faqfaarbitration.html

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

        Abreu & Pettitte are surefire Type-A’s. Moose and Farnsworth are at least Type-B, with decent shots at being Type-A’s. Hawkins are Pavano will get no compensation. Hell, MLB might force the Yanks to give their signing team draft picks based on how bad they are.

        Giambi will be a Type-A, but it’s not going to matter because the Yanks won’t offer him arbitration because he just might accept and “settle” for a $16M salary next year. No arbitration, no picks.

        Based on this, absolute best case scenario is they get picks #16, 17, 18, 19, 31, 32, 33, & 34, but that’s if Moose & Farns buck up to Type-A status. There’s a better chance of the Yanks signing Jesus Christ as a free agent next year than there is of that scenario playing out.

        • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=594331910 Jamal G.

          Doesn’t the rule regarding compensation state that if you don’t offer your player arbitration by the deadline then you can only receive picks if he is signed after a particular date?

          • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

            You can get picks up until you decline to offer arbitration at the deadline, which is sometime in early December. So if someone signs Giambi in November, the Yanks would get picks. It won’t happen though. Once you decline arb, that’s it, no chance at picks.

        • whozat

          “Giambi will be a Type-A, but it’s not going to matter because the Yanks won’t offer him arbitration because he just might accept and “settle” for a $16M salary next year. No arbitration, no picks.”

          I feel that I’ve read in other places that the “20%” rule only applies during ones arby years, in which the player is still under the team’s control unless they choose to let him go. During those years, he CANNOT refuse arbitration.

          Can we figure out what the real deal is here? If it’s a pending free agent (who HAS the option to refuse arbitration), does the 20% rule still apply?

          • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

            If the Yanks offer him arb and he accepts, they can only cut him 20%. Thing is that no one has ever had their salary cut in arbitration, worst case is they receive the same salary. So if Giambi had his salary cut in arbitration, it would be a historic arbitration ruling. They would have to decline to offer him arbitration and then resign him in order to cut him more than 20%.

            I’ve confirmed that info.

            • MD

              thanks to all of the responders……..I say go for it, and take the draft picks next year…….if our scouting is as good as we hope it is, we could clean up with at least 4-5 first and sandwich picks…..spend the money there, and then on one or two key FA’s…..there’s enough pitching in minors to make a trade or two for the rest…..

            • whozat

              Where? There are different ways to get to arbitration. Are you sure you’re not looking at info about players who are ineligible for free agency?

              • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

                I confirmed it with Keith Law. Laid out the exact Giambi scenario, said exactly what I posted above.

        • zzzzz

          if we signed jesus christ, what position would he play? could he possibly move jeter off of shortstop??

          • MD

            he’d be better at sacrificing, but would never steal…..

            • JT

              At least have someone who can move a runner to second.

        • Number 27

          oh man how sick would it be if the yanks signed jesus christ!

          • JeffG

            He’d have tocut his hair and shave his beard.

            It would look weird seeing a clean shaven Jesus – No?

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=594331910 Jamal G.

    Before I get into this I wanted you all to know this: http://riveraveblues.com/2008/07/07/remind-me-again-why-this-game-counts-3245/#comment-106388

    Now to the topic I can not commit to either at this point. I like the wait-and-see idea in the selling scenario but if we could just stay withing striking distance by August then we can look forward to imminent returns of Chien-Ming Wang and Hideki Matsui. I don’t think we will be sellers but then again I would not be opposed to it if we would, the way Mike Mussina and Johnny Damon are playing they could bring back a decent haul.

    *BTW, why the hell does ESPN cut to commercials in the middle of play? They’ve done this numerous times this year alone.

  • BillyBall

    Just watching ESPN Sox/Twinkies. Phillips was commenting on Varitek and the reason that he was picked by the players is because even though his bat has been slow he has outstanding knowledge of the game, he is a great pitchers catcher and holds down opposing teams running games. Now if you look at that statement it is one of glass half full. When these same analysts talk about any Yankee it seems to always be glass half empty. Is it a NY thing or is being so anti NY Yankee the in thing. It seems that being negative towards everything Yankees is very popular and the one that beats them up the most gets a raise, lol!

    As far as this ridiculous posting to get people to debate buy or sell. I disagree with the whole lay out. RAB, please do not turn into one of those blogs that puts out these topics in order to get people to post. Instead, why not post on the obvious. We all non-idiotic baseball NY Yankee fans know that the Yankees will not be selling by the All Star game. Why even post it? And we hope, us intelligent loyal Yankee fans, that the Yankees will not sell the farm for any 3rd string starter or avg RH bat! The Yankees are being run by a fine GM whom has the teams present and future interest as priority number 1! Let’s instead trust in the Cash and thank him for not trading Hughes, Jackson, and 2 other prospects in which the Indians were asking for CC See ya later!

    • Joey H

      thats all because of ESPN being based out of new england. they are all a bunch of cocksuckers if you ask me. ever notice how the patriots are alwasy in the god damned ESPN news

    • RustyJohn

      Hey, speak for yourself, I’m an idiot.

  • Steve

    This is really an absurd question. The Yanks didn’t sell 4.2 million tickets to give up on the season in July. They have a network to run, a stadium to fill, and the last thing you want to do in NYC is raise a white flag, ever.

    The question is will they be buyers, or will they stand pat. Judging by recent trade deadlines since Cashman has taken over, they will lean toward standing pat and/or at best make a minor deal.

    • Mark B

      Couldn’t have said it better, mi amigo….

    • steve (different one)

      well, it was only 2 years ago that the yankees got abreu at the deadline. that was a huge deal.

      • Ed

        Not really. Abreu is a good but not great player, and the Yankees gave up crap to get him. Not exactly what I call a huge deal.

        • steve (different one)

          would you call it a “minor deal”?

          give me a break, it was a big trade. don’t forget Lidle was in the deal as well and the Yankees traded for Craig Wilson too.

          that’s not “standing pat”, which is what i was pointing out.

      • Steve

        I think the days of the salary dump are history. The economics of Baseball have changed with revenue sharing and the luxury tax. Name me the last salary dump that happened anywhere in the majors.

  • E-ROC

    The Yanks should be buyers. The WC is definitely within reach and Tampa Bay hasn’t locked up the division, at least not yet anyway.

  • steve s

    IF Giambi, Farnsworth, Pettitte, Mussina, and Abreu all walk, the Yankees will likely pick up 9 FIRST ROUND PICKS. (I’m assuming Giambi, Pettitte, Mussina, and Abreu are As, and Farnsworth is a B)

    • Steve

      If we sign Tex and a Type A starter, then we lose 4 picks right there.

      • stefan

        There is no way to “lose” Supplemental picks. They can only be gained. If no Type-anything free agents are signed in an offseason, then there simply is no Supplemental round. Just to put it in perspective.

        • Steve

          If we (or anyone else) sign a Type A free agent, we have to give up a first round and Supplemental draft pick. Maybe you didn’t like the word “lose”. Fine, use whatever word you like, we still have to give them up.

          • TwentySeven

            I believe Stefan is right though, we don’t start out with any supplemental picks in the first place so we can’t give them up. Supplemental picks are added. We never have to give up supplemental picks.

          • A.D.

            You don’t loose supplemental picks and you can’t loose gained picks. SO they would loose a 1&2nd rounder and gain all the picks from their free agents

          • tommiesmithjohncarlos

            No, Steve, we don’t have to “give them up”. Sandwich round picks are given out by the League, not the teams. If we sign Sabathia in the offseason When we sign Sabathia in the offseason, we give the Brewers our first round pick and then the league awards them a sandwich round pick. We lose one pick, they gain two.

            And fwiw, the ’09 draft class is supposedly far weaker than this years class (which was also weaker than the year before…)

    • stefan

      All first-round picks above the 18th (or so) are protected, if I recall. For example, if the last-place team signed Abreu (a Type A), the Yankees would only get a Supplemental pick. So yes, there’s a chance of there being that many 1st and Supplemental round picks for the Yankees, but only if those players are signed by the top 12 teams in the Majors.

      Regardless, the Yankees stand to haul in a LOT of draft picks next season.

      • Chris

        I believe if the pick is in the top of the 1st round, the compensation pick is the second round pick instead.

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

        The first 15 picks are protected, not 18.

      • Steve

        Right, but it also depends where they land. As was stated before, the top 15 picks are protected, and if a team with a lousy record picks up any of our Type A’s I believe we only get one pick.

        But your point still stands, we’ll be shedding a ton of payroll and many of these guys should be Type A’s. Though some are not slam dunks. They go on what the player did for the past TWO years, so guys like Giambi and Moose could be on the bubble. But I still suspect they’ll make it to the top 20% at their position.

        • Joe

          If a team’s first-round pick is protected, they lose their second-round pick instead. So if Pittsburgh signs Abreu and Abreu is Type A, the Yankees would get a sandwich pick and Pittsburgh’s second-round pick. I think.

          • A.D.

            Exaclty

  • whozat

    “We all non-idiotic baseball NY Yankee fans know that the Yankees will not be selling by the All Star game. Why even post it? ”

    Because there are excellent arguments that they SHOULD. It’s interesting to debate what, realistically, they could do.

    Screw you for telling the rest of us what we can and can’t discuss. Don’t read this thread if you don’t want to.

  • Steve S

    Its ridiculous, they are three games back in the loss column behind Boston and the two intermediate teams are Oakland and Minnesota. Oakland is contemplating trading arguably their best starter. So to even argue trading pieces that probably would only get you depth in the minors rather than impact prospects is ridiculous. Its one thing to hang on to guys, its another to try and acquire guys just for the sake of adding depth. If you can get an impact corner outfielder that Cashman knows will be ready next year then make the move but I dont think anyone is going to do that. Their are moving into a brand new stadium, Cashman cant start giving up in the season when he is three games out.

  • B

    Buyers! We were further out last year so this year shouldn’t be any different. TB is playing way above their potential and can be had if we can get the right pieces in place.

    • DonnieBaseballHallofFameDotCom

      TB may be playing above their heads but they also may not have hit their peak. None of their guys are having breakout years minus their new 3rd baseman.

      We were further out last year but with less teams to climb over and we were one year younger, this team is old.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      TB is not playing “way above” their potential. The only guy on that team having a career year is Grant Balfour in the bullpen. BJ Upton, Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, all are having typical years, if not underachieving. Evan Longoria is absolutely that good. Kazmir, Shields, Garza, all par for the course.

      • Steve

        Dioner Navarro has done this before? Where exactly?

        http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=5902

        His 807 OPS is roughly 100 basis points above his career average.

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

          In the minors. And believe or not, players do get better as they approach their peak.

          http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=10350

          • Steve

            In the minors? Seriously?

            How about you just say “OK, ya got me there Steve-a-rino” and we would have called it quits.

            Instead, now I have a few more for you.

            Grant Balfour pitching to a 1.02 ERA and 0.74 WHIP

            Career ERA 4.73

            http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4811

            Trevor Miller ERA this year 3.42

            Career ERA 4.41

            http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=3544

            • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

              Okay Steve-a-rino. I acknowledged Balfour pitching over his head in my original post, but you got me there.

              Trevor Miller’s ERA from 2004-2007: 3.74

              Or .32 higher than his ERA this year. You know what .32 ERA points works out to? 1 run every 27 innings, or basically a negligible difference.

              BJ Upton’s OPS+ is down 17 points
              Aki Iwamura’s is down 6
              Carl Crawford’s is down 15
              Carlos Pena’s is down 64
              Jamie Shields’ ERA+ is down 5 points
              Troy Percival’s is down 129
              Sonnanstine’s is up 18 points, but is still below average

              The only guy (besides Balfour) having a completely out of the this world year is Eric Hinske. If anything, the Rays are underachieving.

              (Sorry for the delay, your comment got caught in moderation because of the links)

              • B

                Carlos Pena was a fluke and he is showing it. Check his career numbers. The most HR he ever had in a season before last year was 27! Must be great to have a 1 career year then get paid for it. He is laughing all the way to the bank. Did we forget that he couldn’t make it with either Boston or the Yankees? The DEVIL RAYS because I refuse to call them just rays, are overachieving!

      • A.D.

        TB mainly is if the young starters keep it going for a whole year Kazmir, Shields, and Garza is expected, but has only made 15 starts in a season (where he is now)

        Otherwise its the pen that could implode
        Wheeler has 1.82 ERA, and yes he’s had low 2’s before, but seems doubful he doesn’t digress
        Balfour is having a redic season, doubt he can keep it up
        Percival is having a redic comeback, but keeps getting hurt
        Howell has a 2.91, he’s never had an ERA under 5 previously

        that could hurt them quick, if it comes apart

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

          You can say that about every bullpen though.

          I know it happened fast and no one was really expecting it, but the Rays are good. Damn good.

          • A.D.

            Im not saying they’re not good, but the part of the team that is overacheiving vs past performance is the bullpen, therefore it has the best chance of coming apart, if something were to come apart. And if the pen unravels they will have problems

  • Chofo

    If Giambi keeps hitting like this and Moose keeps pitching this way, it’s not a bad idea to offer arbitration. We ca get draft picks or sign them to a 1 year deal and keep them motivated for their next deal.

  • DonnieBaseballHallofFameDotCom

    I think we should sell with the intent on spending money next year on the top talent available in pitching, first base, outfield.

    This team could sell some parts and still contend for the wild card. I would like to cut some old guys and also possible / def steroid HGH guys off this roster.

    Giambi would be somebody I know would bring back something from a team that needs a bat. Mussina to the Phils I have been saying for the last two years, might be the only team he would accept a trade to.

    Damon, Matsui, Abreu, Melky, Cano, Betimet, Pettite, Posada (this one will NEVER happen, and I am not saying I want it to)
    I would trade all of those guys for the right parts and or just as a salary dump. Posada I think is the only guy on there that has a no trade due to his 10 and 5 situation, and he is really the only guy on there we could not replace through free agency next year.

    I would also do anything to get out from under Igawas money if I were Cashman (doubt you can now, should have taken up the Pads on their offer last year), and I would maybe bring up Kennedy at some point against weak teams and hope he pitched well and then deal him, I was never that high on Ian. Ian seems to be a control pitcher with no control.

    If we do not get rid of some of these old guys even with the addition of CC and Tex next year if that happens, it may not be a good enough team to win in the playoffs.

  • Sterling Pless

    How about making a trade for a right handed power bat like Jason Bay or Xavier Nady? And how about making a trade for A.J. Burnett? Kennedy, Cabrera, Horne for Burnett?

    • MD

      too much for AJ….but I remember a lance pless who played for the A’s in 1955….

    • whozat

      That’s exactly the wrong thing to do. Spend the chips to try to patch a leaky ship.

      Burnett is underperforming and is chronically hurt. Boo.

      Nady, and especially Bay will be expensive because other contenders are looking for those same kind of bats.

    • B

      Um, yea way too much for Burnett.

  • dave

    off topic but Robinson Cano has the 3rd worst pitches/plate appearance in the league

    • Chris

      He’s never been a patient hitter, and he’s seeing more pitches than he did in 2006 (when he hit .342). I don’t think that’s related to his poor performance this year. He seems to finally be coming out of his slump (.391/.417/.522 is July), so I’m happy whether or not he sees a lot of pitches.

  • Chris

    I think the Yanks just need to stand pat. The key needs for this team are:

    1. Power bat. If Matsui comes back, then he answers this issue. By the end of July, they should have a much better idea of what his status is for the rest of the year. If it looks like he’ll be out the rest of the year, then it would make sense to try to get someone else. When Damon comes back, that will certainly help too.

    2. Starting pitchers. The Yanks can expect to get Hughes, Wang, and Pavano off the DL before the end of the year. All three would be better than Rasner or Ponson. Also, there are a lot more options that could be available soon: Kennedy, Aceves, Horne, McCutchen. These guys are less sure things, but should be at least slight upgrades when they’re ready.

  • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

    All-Star Catcher Jason Varitek™ with a hugely clutch pop out with the bases juiced.

  • daneptizl

    I thought it was a pretty standard process of just telling Giambi to deny arbitration and that he would do so because that’s just the way some business is done?

    • MD

      we dont get any draft picks that way, I believe

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

        If they offer arbitration and Giambi declines, they’ll get picks.

        • tommiesmithjohncarlos

          If they offer arbitration, Giambi would accept. His only other option would be to hit the market, but in arb, worst case scenario he’s probably getting 17M.

          Even if he only signs a one year deal with someone like Oakland or Toronto, he’s not gonna get 17M, and I don’t see anybody giving him a 2 year deal (and if they did, it would be 2 years at 13-14M per, tops…)

          If we offer him arbitration, he takes it. Abreu, however, probably declines abritration, and considering that we should be losing him (and we should see diminishing returns from Matsui and Damon), we probably should just keep him anyway for one more year, even if we add Teixiera. I’d rather try and deal Matsui or Damon and move Giambi back to DH.

    • Ed

      That used to be common with backup players you may or may not have room for. Teams didn’t do it for the draft picks – they did it because under the old rules, you had a limited time period to resign your own free agents. If you offered arbitration and the player declined, you had about an extra month to resign them. If you didn’t resign them by the deadline, you couldn’t sign them until May 1st.

      If Giambi gets offered arbitration, he’s definitely accepting. Paying his buyout then paying him the minimum allowed through arbitration results in almost exactly the same money as the option ($21.8m vs $22m), so there’s no way the Yankees offer arbitration.

  • TwentySeven

    I say we stick with what we have now unless a good deal comes along; wait it out a bit till the deadline, see what happens. This offseason is going to be about retooling; I’m hoping to pick up Sabathia, Teixeira, and Mark Ellis, and then turn Cano and a prospect or someone around for Bay.
    Pick up some more spare parts and we could be looking at the following roster:

    LF Johnny Damon
    SS Derek Jeter
    1B Mark Teixeira
    3B Alex Rodriguez
    RF Jason Bay
    DH Hideki Matsui
    2B Mark Ellis
    C Jorge Posada
    CF Melky Cabrera/Brett Gardner/Austin Jackson

    CC Sabathia/Chien-Ming Wang/Jobamania/Hughes/Kennedy/Rasner/Karstens/Horne or whoever gets in on the action in the rotation.

    The team would maybeeeee (big maybe) have to pick up a lefty reliever somewhere, but overall I would be in love with this roster. In all likelihood it won’t happen but it would be awesome.

    Thoughts?

    • TwentySeven

      And yes, I understand that the Pirates would want a decent prospect with Cano and it would be trading Cano at low value, but I can’t help but be annoyd by Cano’s streakiness.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      I love me some Mark Ellis, too bad he can’t hit a lick.

      • TwentySeven

        For a second baseman hes a pretty good hitter. He’s no Chase Utley or Dan Uggla, but his defense is first class and as second basemen come he’s a passable hitter.

        • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=594331910 Jamal G.

          Robinson Cano is a damn good hitter overall and also has first class defense at Second Base.

          • TwentySeven

            Sometimes that’s true. Unfortunately, sometimes it’s not.

            • The Fallen Phoenix

              Yes, streaky with the bat, but by God, Cano is pretty with the glove.

              And considering he still has tons of offensive upside despite his streakiness, I keep him over Ellis any day, unless he gets back serious talent in a deal.

          • tommiesmithjohncarlos

            By the way, in case anyone forgot, Robinson Cano is only 25. His 22, 23, and 24 year-old seasons in the majors were all excellent, and if you add up all of his career, he’s probably got only 4 or 5 months where he wasn’t an amazing offensive force at a premium defensive position. I know he’s struggled this year, but he’s basically struggled for three months and now he’s returning to form. Cano should be untouchable.

    • Jorge Steinbrenner

      I’m glad your PS3 gets a lot of use.

      I guarantee you that team would lose in the first round of the playoffs to a team with 1/4 of its payroll.

      • TwentySeven

        I don’t understand either of your comments, though it’s clear you are attacking my idea. Besides, I don’t have any consoles, thank you very much.

    • Chris

      So you advocate trading a plus defensive middle infielder about to enter his peak years and cost controlled for up to six years for a corner outfielder just leaving his peak years and with one year before free agency?

      I know he can be infuriating to watch, but these are the types of trades that generally get ripped to shreds after a few years.

      • TwentySeven

        That’s a fair point, but it’s safe to say that I am quit frustrated with his streakiness. This whole thing was really just an idea I was throwing around, anyways.

        • tommiesmithjohncarlos

          I’m glad you threw your idea around. I’m frustrated with his streakiness too. I’m also frustrated with Phil Hughes’s streakiness, but I don’t want to trade him for Jason Bay either.

  • Chofo

    what about Farns?

    We don’t want him next year, heck, not this 3 years, but would you offer him arbitration to get the sandwich pick (he’s a B player at best) or would let him walk away for nothing?

    I hope that someone sign his power arm before December knowing they won’t loose picks

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      There are worse things in the world than having Farnsworth accept arbitration. He’s not THAT bad, still an average, maybe even a tick above reliever.

      • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=594331910 Jamal G.

        Yes, but don’t you know that one run games against the Red Sox and Mets are the only ones that count when evaluating Kyle Farnsworth? All those other games count as 0.4% in the Win column.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=594331910 Jamal G.

    Tommy John with the 25th most Wins in Major League history is not in the Hall of Fame? What the hell? Bert Blyleven neither? That’s nuts.

    • MD

      Jack Morris and Allie Reynolds were better than both of them

      • Chris

        Except they’re not.

      • steve (different one)

        Jack Morris was better than Blyleven? in what universe?

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=594331910 Jamal G.

    I can’t believe I agree with Steve Phillips, Mariano Rivera should start the All-Star game.

    • Mark B

      Seeing a game started with Enter Sandman would be cool……

  • Jorge Steinbrenner

    unless you enjoyed our wonderful playoff performance this decade, other than 2000 and 2003, i think the answer is what we should have done LAST year: sell.

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=594331910 Jamal G.

      But we made the playoffs last year and were a swarming insect attack away from a 1-1 series heading into the Phil Hughes game.

  • Mark B

    If we were really in the hunt for Sabathia, does anyone honestly think we will suddenly become sellers at this point? Don’t think so.

    We will stand pat and probably will make a minor pick-up and possibly a big splash by trading Cano, Cabrera or Abreu…..

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=594331910 Jamal G.

    Jesus Montero with a solo jack. So by next year will there be a better Catcher than Jesus Montero in the Minor Leagues outside of Matt Weiters?

    • TwentySeven

      By next year in all likelihood Jesus will have grown off of the position.

    • pat

      better hitting catcher? no probably not.
      better catcher prospect? …again probably not
      better all around catcher?… yes, the one he splits time with Mr. Romine whos
      putting togther a pretty solid season playing in Jesus’ shadow. A modern day St. John the Baptist if you will.

      On a side note I don’t think we can really assess the buy/sell conundrum but i think if we could put together a nice package centered around Suttle and a few B tier pitching prospects to try and get a solid young player. I really like suttle especially now that hes hitting again but obviously hes blocked at 3b for the next 10 yrs so maybe its best if we shop him while his value is appreciating.

      But thats just my opinion.. haters fire away.

      • Chip

        I’m not being a hater but you don’t center a deal around Suttle and get anything of worth. The further away these guys are, the less their value is and Suttle is a LONG way aways. If he’s dominating in AA next year, then you can center a package around him but if that happens, nobody will want to trade him.

    • tommiesmithjohncarlos

      Outside of Matt Wieters, all these catcher prospects should all be better than Jesus Montero next year:

      Dusty Brown, Pawtucket
      George Kottaras, Pawtucket
      Mark Wagner, Portland
      John Otness, Portland
      Zak Farkes, Lancaster
      Salvador Paniagua, Lancaster
      Jon Still, Lancaster
      Mark Wagner, Lancaster
      Lars Anderson, Lancaster (converted from 1B)
      Jonathan Egan, Greenville
      Rafael Gil, Lowell
      Matt Cooney, Lowell
      Tim Federowicz, Lowell
      Manny Delcarmen, Boston (converted from P)
      Carlton Fisk, Boston (should be coming out of retirement)

      For Diamond Notes, I’m Peter Gammons, ESPN.

  • A.D.

    The key is smart buying, the Yankees can buy for players that will replace guys next year, or sell one way & buy the other i.e. trade Abreu followed by trading for Bay, they don’t just need to throw prospects at a team for a rental

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      Smart buying, or signing smart free agents, or making smart trades is easier said than done. Anyone can do it in hindsight, but who knows what you’re getting at the time of the deal.

      • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=594331910 Jamal G.

        That’s why the criticism of the Carl Pavano and Kei Igawa deals are so unfair. Carl Pavano because at the time most, if not all, were praising that deal before and when it happened (not the deal itself maybe but the signing). Kei Igawa because the man is making $4M annually. People need to relax.

      • TwentySeven

        Exactly. Remember the Carl Pavano deal? In retrospect its probably among the worst signings the team ever made, but at the time we all thought it was a great deal (or at least most of us).

        • B

          Everyone was going after Pavano if you all remember correctly. It was unfortunate that we were the team that won that bidding.

          Now everyone who was after Pavano is taking a huge sigh of relief that they didn’t get him!

      • A.D.

        I was just meaining that they can add for now & the futurue, obv you hope they all come out, but if it just seems like a good idea now i’ll take it.

        The Weaver deal was a now & future, he ended up blowing, but good try

  • The Fallen Phoenix

    After reading the latest FireJoeMorgan column, I’ve become re-convinced that Cashman should try and swing a trade with Coletti to snag Kemp. Maybe Abreu, salary, and some pieces?

    Yeah, I know, probably won’t happen. But it’d be sooo awesome if it did.

    • TwentySeven

      OK, that would be pretty cool. Remember me, by the way?

      • The Fallen Phoenix

        Yes, yes I do. Speaking of which…I have ideas. That needs to get written somewhere. Luckily I have a space. ;-)

        • TwentySeven

          Sounds like fun. :)

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=594331910 Jamal G.

    Hideki Okajima coming into the game with two runners on base? Ohhhhhh snap!

  • E-ROC

    Trade for Kendry Morales.
    Promote more talent like Andrew McCutchen & Jeff Karstens. I don’t think they can do any worse than Ponson or possibly Rasner. If not, trade for a starter.
    Get rid of Hawkins and Traber. Promote Strickland and Britton.

    • A.D.

      Its Dan McCutchen, Andrew is the OF prospect for the pirates

      • E-ROC

        Thanx

  • Bill

    In regards to compensation picks the only picks we’ll be getting are for Abreu (Type A) and Farnsworth (Type B) asssuming neither of them is re-signed and its possible one of them might accept arbitration. I mean 16M for Abreu would be a lot to pass up, but I think he’ll get offered a 3 year deal on the market. If Giambi or Moose were offered arbitration they’d without a doubt take it. As previously mentioned salaries are rarely reduced through arbitration, the 20% rule doesn’t apply to them, but their salaries wouldn’t be reduced by nearly that much anyway. At their ages its unlikely that teams are going to be offering them multi-year deals. In the case of Mussina he would only play for teams located in this general area and if offered arbitration by the yankees I doubt he would pass it up. Giambi wouldn’t pass it up either cause even if he were offered a multi year deal it certainly wouldn’t be anywhere near the 20M he’d get in arbitration.

    As for whether we should buy or sell. We’d have to lose a lot of ground in a little amount of time in order for this team to go into a selling mode. I’d like to see the Yankees as moderate buyers and look for guys that on the trade market that can help them now and in the future, so possibly a relatively young right handed bat (Bay, Nady, Murton) or a young starting pitcher like Bedard (although the Yankees don’t seem to be interested given his attitude problems).

    • Chip

      It’s been known to happen where teams offer arbitration under the understanding that they’ll decline it. I’m pretty sure Giambi has plenty of money and yes it is a ton of cash, he’ll probably get a decent deal after the season seeing how he’s playing (plus we’re paying him a 5 million dollar goodbye check).

      Moose is also an older guy that I could see a national league team taking a flier on. I mean the guy would win 20 games this season and start ascending the ranks in all-time wins. He wouldn’t want to accept after saying he wouldn’t and get sent to AAA all season.

      If you look at it that way, the Yankees will get probably 3 type A FA and Farns as a type B. I’m assuming they’ll lose their first rounder (and possibly second) from CC or Tex signings but that’s still 3 first rounders and 4 supplementals. I’d take that any day

      And yes, I realize that Moose and Giambi might not want to play along but hey if Clemens did it we can hope!

  • Pingback: Midseason Analysis of a Certain Baseball Team from the Good City of New York, Specifically in the Bronx « The Baseball Exchange

  • A.D.

    Francona said theyre sending Masterson to the minors to become a reliever, and bringing up Buccholtz….interesting

    • tommiesmithjohncarlos

      WHAT!!!!! Do you mean to tell me that Justin Masterson, who was the best pitching prospect in the majors and was destined for 20 Cy Youngs and induction into Cooperstown in 2009, is being sent down and turned into a reliever? But he’s so much better of a prospect than Ian Kennedy… this just does not make sense…

  • http://RiverAve.Blues Joseph M

    They should be buyers, but I have zero level of confidence in Cashman. I hope Hank is ready to pull the trigger on Cashman the minute the season’s over. I would love to see someone (maybe Buck) take a look at the organizational talent and give us the real story, specifically, do we have as much talent as Cashman has been crowing about or has he been overestimating what the future holds for some of the young players (which wouldn’t suprise me).

    • whozat

      “They should be buyers,”

      Why? This team looks like one player away from a championship to you?

      Stop dreaming.

    • whozat

      “I would love to see someone (maybe Buck) take a look at the organizational talent and give us the real story”

      How about, you know, Baseball Prospectus or Baseball America?

      They’re the ones rating the farm systems. Not cashman. They say we have a really good one too.

      So…

    • LiveFromNewYork

      He’s not the only one who thinks its loaded with talent.

  • http://RiverAve.Blues Joseph M

    They should be buyers, but I have zero level of confidence in Cashman. I hope Hank is ready to pull the trigger on Cashman the minute the season’s over. I would love to see someone (maybe Buck) take a look at the organizational talent and give us the real story, specifically, do we have as much talent as Cashman has been crowing about or has he been overestimating what the future holds for some of the young players (which wouldn’t suprise me).

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=594331910 Jamal G.

    Only the Mets can lead a game 10-1 and have to face the winning runner at the plate in the bottom of the ninth inning.

  • McCaff

    Why would the yankees get rid of ABreu? Who could we get to fill that role better than he does? He is an average to above average outfiilder, can hit for power, gets on base, and hits for decent average. His eye alone, in front of A Rod, is a weapon that would be hard to replace. Texeira in the 3 hole is nice, but what if we dont land him, and even if we do , who plays right field? I like Bobby for another year or two untill Austin Jackson and possibly Tabata are ready. Trade Melky before getting rid of Abreu. As far as this year goes, getting rid of Matsui is can understand, but keep damon. This sucks, i wish we could just talk about how to keep our AL East leade rather than how to relinquish/ give up on it.

    • LiveFromNewYork

      How about making him teach patient hitting to the youngsters and not just goofing around with them?

      • McCaff

        Yeah that would be nice. His name as a baby was Bob, thats just silly and goofy as it is, maybe its just in him,

    • Kay Sturns

      Juan Rivera!

  • Haggs

    Even if the Yanks wanted to be “sellers”, the only players they could sell would have a minimal impact on how the rest of ’08 ends up.

    Cabrera and Betemit have minimal actual value to the Yankees. I doubt their won-loss record would be affected if both guys disappeared. And there’s a chance their record might actually improve.

    Farnsworth might have some value to other teams, but not a ton. And the Yankees wouldn’t suffer all that much if they lost him. Some would suggest they would actually benefit, but I begrudgingly admit Kyle has been strangely effective in games that he enters without margin for error (but horrible in other situations).

    The players that would have some value to other teams, and would have a negative impact on the Yanks ’08 season if they were moved, all have varying degrees of protection from being traded.

    Abreu: complete no trade clause

    Damon: partial no-trade clause

    Matsui: full no-trade clause

    Mussina: no trade protection (not sure what this means)

    The Yanks becoming sellers is highly unrealistic, unless you’re talking about spare parts that nobody cares about.

    • Chris

      Mussina (and Jeter, Posada, Giambi, Mo) are 5 and 10 players. That means they have 10 years of major league service time, and 5 consecutive years with their current club. This status gives them the right to veto any trade.

      A-Rod will reach this level at the end of this year.

  • LiveFromNewYork

    The Yanks are still in the hunt with 60 percent of their rotation out and a whole lotta hurting on the starting lineup. Add Hawkins and a few other OMG issues (cold bats, flailing Melkys, divorcing Arods) to the mixture and they are STILL within striking distane. When you think about it, it’s kinda incredible.

    No reason to be crazy or give up the season. I expect Cashman to be cautious and be neither a tremendous buyer or seller.

    • TurnTwo

      this seems like one of the most reasonable and realistic posts here.

      i personally dont see the yankees doing much of anything, and with the payroll coming off at the end of the year i think Brian Cashman has his sights set more on 2009 than 2008.

  • Rich

    I would let value offered be the determining factor in whether they decided to buy or sell, but always with an eye toward the mid to long term.

  • Mattchu!

    The Yankees should be buyers, no question. Hughes, Wang, and Kennedy are all coming back and will make a huge impact on our club. In the mean time, Joba-Pettitte-Moose will give us quality pitching.

    I say call up Daniel McCutchen to fill that fifth spot with Rasner at least giving us a chance every other day. David Robertson, Edwar Ramirez, and Jose Veras will be the big arms in our bullpen and I think by the end of the season Robertson will be a household name.

    Robbie and Melky will warm back up, Gardner will solidify the top of the lineup until Damon gets back, and once Matsui gets back, the lineup will be strong again. We lost so many players over the first half that we couldn’t keep it strong for very long. This team is going to turn itself around, we just need to get this down:

    1. Johnny Damon – LF
    2. Derek Jeter – SS
    3. Bobby Abreu – RF
    4. Alex Rodriguez – 3B
    5. Hideki Matsui – DH
    6. Jason Giambi – 1B
    7. Jorge Posada – C
    8. Robinson Cano – 2B
    9. Melky Cabrera/Brett Gardner – CF

    Bench: Jose Molina, Alberto Gonzalez, Wilson Betemit, and Gardner/Melky

    1. Chien-Ming Wang
    2. Andy Pettitte
    3. Mike Mussina
    4. Joba Chamberlain
    5. Phil Hughes

    Bullpen: Mariano Rivera, David Robertson, Edwar Ramirez, Jose Veras, Kyle Farnsworth, Darrell Rasner, and Brian Bruney.

    Once you get that team back on the field, I don’t think we’re going to lose very often.

    • Mattchu!

      I meant every other start of Rasner’s will give us a chance….

    • Guiseppe Franco

      There’s a good chance that both Wang and Hughes won’t be back until late August or perhaps September.

      If that is indeed the case, that throws your theory out the window because the rotation will still be thin for another 6 weeks.

      By then, they might realistically be out of the race unless they start playing well now with the troops they have.

      • Mattchu!

        Yeah, they won’t be back for a while. Which is why I said bring up Danny McCutchen and between him and Rasner, we can make it until those guys get back.

        Worse come to worse, run through each of the AAA starters and then through the AA starters until somebody catches on. With our horrible luck so far this season with all the injuries, we have to have some good luck coming around sometime soon.

  • Adrian-Retire21

    The Yankee just need a starter.(FReddy Garcia,A.J.Burnett)THe offense will hit.But Ponson and Rasner hurts this team.And There’s no way Hughes is gonna start the next season in the rotation.

    We need insurance in the pitching department.

    • LiveFromNewYork

      We keep saying the offense will hit and then it doesn’t.

    • Chip

      How is Hughes not going to start next season in the rotation? He’s got the stuff to do it so why not? Remember that we all gave him up for dead last year too and he dominated late in the season. Just give him a chance to put it all together

  • Joltin’ Joe

    I think we are overrating the returns we would get on the players mentioned in the “Sell” part of the post. Nobody is going to give up much unless it’s our stud prospects.

  • Manimal

    Garcia is an option. Maybe the Blue Jays would like Alberto Gonzales + others for AJ Burnett or even Betemit. If they are buyers Fuentes/Holiday should land in new york and trade Bobby Abreu for some pitching help. If they are sellers I would look into trading Abreu, Damon, Matsui, Giambi or Posada. The DH/left field situation leaves the defense hideous. I hate bobby Abreu in right field he takes SO LONG to get to the ball its ridiculous.

    • Manimal

      OH YEAH, don’t forget Teixeira.

    • TurnTwo

      noone is taking Alberto Gonzalez right now for much of anything.

      Posada isnt getting traded anywhere.

      Damon and Matsui, with their current injuries, really arent helping Cashman trade them, even if the Yankees were sellers. Damon might be the best chip if/when he’s healthy later this month, though.

      Giambi and Abreu are reasonableoptions right now in the market if they were put out there because both are just mid-season rentals with expiring contracts, but neither of them is going to get back much, IMO.

  • RollingWave

    Buy.

    I was about to say sell just 3 days agin then they suddenly plawon two from the Sox… seheesh can they make up their mind?

    I’ts asheame we can’t sell Jeter. otherwise it might make so much sense…. Jeter for Kemp + Kuo for example… you know Torre si dieing for his “trusted man” and Coletti will fall for the big name thing..

    • TurnTwo

      this just makes me sick.

      • LiveFromNewYork

        which part? the misspelling? the typos? the atrocious grammar? The ridiculous notion of selling Jeter? Or the fact that you wasted 15 seconds of your day reading it and an additional 15 replying to it?

        • Chip

          All of the above, I can’t believe how ignorant people can be on here

  • tommiesmithjohncarlos

    Don’t buy or sell… do both.

    Don’t buy anybody big, because with Sabathia gone, there’s nobody worth moving anybody for (Bay, Nady, Holliday, and Bedard are all overrated; Fuentes is intriguing but not worth a good prospect, which is what it will take; Rich Harden will cost a bounty and can’t be considered on the level of Santana or Sabathia until he’s further removed from his injury concerns, Burnett won’t move within the division without a premium).

    Buy smaller pieces (like Randy Wolf, or Ron Mahay) and wait for our internal assets to return to health. Offensively, the infield is set (especially with Jeter and Cano beginning to return to form) and Gardner/Melky can hold the fort in the OF until Damon and Matsui return. Pitching-wise, we do need another good/great starter, but since there aren’t any, we’ll have to make due with a 1-2-3 of Joba, Pettitte, and Mussina and continue throwing spaghetti (read: Ponson, Rasner, Karstens, Aceves, ) at the wall and see what sticks. And the pen has been improving, and there’s still more good options at Scranton.

    But don’t think that we can’t sell as well. Our four most effective non-Mo relievers to date have been Veras, Edwar, The Human Sandwich Pick and Brian Bruney, who should be back sometime before the playoffs. I think we should put out feelers on Farnsy and see if we can get a valuable hitting prospect (and put out feelers for Igawa to see if we can get somebody who is alive and has four functioning limbs and a head)…

    What I’d like to do:
    1) Use 3-4 of our fringe prospects (like the Juan Miranda, Colin Curtis, Reegie Corona, Adam Olbrychowski, Dickinson Marquez, Anthony Claggett stratosphere) to deal for a 5th starter. Since we can’t get an ace, we at least need to try to plug one of the two huge holes at the back of our rotation; the other hole can be plugged by the Rasner/Karstens/Ponson/Zambrano/Giese bunch for now and possibly fixed from one of our late-August/early-September options (like Hughes, Kennedy, Wang, Horne, Marquez, McCutchen, Coke, and yes, Pavano). Add someone like a Randy Wolf, Paul Byrd, Miguel Batista or the like to those groupings and you’ve got a good dozen pitchers who can possibly take those last 20 starts between now and the end of the season, and that’s not horrible.
    2) Sign Barry Bonds. Seriously, how does this hurt? I know he can’t play the field, but if he gives you anything with the stick (which he should), worst case scenario he’s a much, much better version of Wilson Betemit. And, with Melky, Gardner, and the Attorney General, we’d need more offense to plug in here and there. He’s insurance in case Matsui and Damon remain injured (which is likely) and he costs us nothing.