Evaluating the X Man

Team USA clinches spot in medal round
Game 125: A long-awaited return and an audition

Over the last few weeks, Xavier Nady has been a godsend for the Yankees. Twenty one games into his Yankee tenure, Nady is hitting .312/.391/.649 with 7 HR and 18 RBI. His 9.9 VORP in just 87 plate appearances allowed the Yankees to dispatch Melky Cabrera back to AAA. But for all of this success this year, Nady is far exceeding his career .282/.339/.463. It’s possible that Nady could emerge as a Paul O’Neill-like player who really comes into his own; it’s possible Nady’s season is simply a fluke. But to tell what Nady’s season means for the future, SG at RLYW ran the numbers and determined that Nady’s improved offense could be a good sign of things to come.

Team USA clinches spot in medal round
Game 125: A long-awaited return and an audition
  • RobertGKramer

    From a pure trade aspect, you gotta like the cost of Nady over the cost to the RSox for Jason Bay! What will the stats say at the end of the season?

  • LiveFromNewYork

    What is his contract? hopefully he’s around next year.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      Arbitration eligible after the season, FA after 2009.

  • Steve

    In order to properly evaluate Nady, you have to look at his career progression. He started out as a platoon player, a guy who couldn’t hit righties (.223 in 05). He steadily improved to hit .263, then .274, to this year where he actually hit righties BETTER than lefties (.331/.310).

    He may well be in the midst of a career year, but he’s a keeper nonetheless. I also think he is a good fit for Girardi’s style of play, whereas some others on this roster aren’t.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=nadyxa01&year=2005

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=594331910 Jamal G.

    I advocated letting Bobby Abreu walk even before Xavier Nady was brought in, his addition and production thus far puts Abreu’s departure in the neighborhood of a no-brainer, in my opinion.

    • ceciguante

      there are reasons to not like abreu — his fear of the friggin wall is just one of em — but it’s a bold call to give nady his slot for next year. it might be a good move, but it’s a tough decision that could go either way in 2009. say what you will about bobby, but the guy hits every year.

      anyone have a guess as to whether abreu would accept arbitration at year’s end? since that’s the only way the yanks get 2 draft picks, it’s a big part of the nady deal / RF situation.

      • jsbrendog

        offer it to him y not?? the reason people dont want to resign him, and why i dont think they should, is because e would want a multi yr deal. i see offering him arb as win win, you already have nady, so you offer, he declines, draft picks, he accepts, you have an above average right fielder for one more yr which is what you are looking for.

        no brainer

      • cult of basebaal

        i think it’s very unlikely that abreu would accept arbitration. he *will* get a couple of multi-year offers, especially if he continues his hot 2nd half hitting

        • jsbrendog

          and even if he does thats exactly what the yanks would like, to have him for oen mroe yr as a stopgap, an above average one at that.

          • ceciguante

            good points here. bobby’s 34, he’ll get multi-year offers. i’m not yet convinced the team is ready to cut him loose, though. it’ll be very interesting to see who is a better value in ’09 — bobby or nady.

            the problem is that with nady, damon and abreu you have 3 corner OFers, and no CF. now add matsui, who’s really a DH, and you have a logjam. the FA class is weak this year at CF. the yanks will either have to sign a 1 yr CF stop gap type, or pull a trade.

    • Steve

      While Bobby’s walk rates have been declining for the past 2 seasons, he’s still a very productive player. He currently leads this RISP-challenged group in RBIs, and has all season.

      We don’t have a CF for next season and the FA market is pretty barren. You might be forced to go Damon-CF Nady-LF and resign Abreu for RF. Unless you’re comfortable putting Melky/Gardner out there for 09, and I don’t know how you could be certain of either player.

      I’m on the fence about Bobby, I don’t think its a no brainer at all.

  • RobertGKramer

    Well, actually the real cost has yet to be determined. Anyone else tracking Tabata?

  • Felix the gato

    Even during his mini slump that started his Yankees career he put up consistently productive at bats.

    Im satisfied with the trade but in all honesty Will boras (nady’s agent) hold up the Yankees after 2009 when he hits the market?

    I sure as Fuck think so….

  • Ben B.

    Small sample size for Tabata, but it doesn’t surprise me that he’s turned it on since the trade. He needed a kick in the rear, and he got it.

    • Steve

      Yeah, you don’t know if he would have straightened himself out if he stayed with the Yanks, or if he got some coaching with the Pirates that made a big difference.

      What we do know is he was awful in Trenton this year.

  • Old Ranger

    Nady could very well be another Paul O’Neill, remember when he came to the yanks for our stating CF. People said the Yanks got taken, just because of his #s in NL. Well, he turned out ok, didn’t he? X-man could do the same thing…his #s have gone up every year. If he turns out as well as Pauly, I’d be happy…as would most of us. 27/09?

    • bill

      I agree, Nady will be a good player for a while with the Yankees. 2 questions for Mike A. : has AJax’s stock fallen at all this year (his season isnt as good as last year’s), and is there a chance we see him in September?

      • whozat

        He’s 21 in AA and putting up solidly respectable numbers in a pitchers league. How is Jackson’s season this year WORSE than last season?

        • bill

          Look at the numbers. Less HR’s, SB’s and lower BA. And 10 of his 13 HR’s were hit in the FSL league, a bigger pitcher’s league than he is in now.

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

        No and no. If anything his stock has gone up because he’s performed at a higher level (even though it’s not necessarily a holy crap kind of performance) and improved his plate discipline. No need to call him up in Sept and put him on the 40-man a full year before he needs to be.

        • bill

          Thanks. When is the earliest you see him in the show?

          • Steve

            When he strikes out less than once every 5 ABs.

        • Steve

          Improved his plate discipline?

          His OBP is down from what he did in Tampa last year and his strikeout rates are almost identical.

          http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/J/Austin-Jackson.shtml

      • AndrewYF

        Jackson’s stock has risen, as he’s held his own in AA at the age of 21, which is all he needed to do this year.

        Chad Jennings speculates that with the release of Jason Lane, Jackson could be called up to AAA for their playoffs in September, as he was last year.

      • Old Ranger

        I checked him out again this year, he looks better actually then last year. He reminds me of Bernie Williams, at that age (somewhat) both of them were (are) more athlete, then baseball player. A-Jax seems to have better baseball instincts then Bernie ever did. I’m not dissin Bernie, he was what he was, a good player. One thing people don’t know about him is; he is not as fast as people think…don’t get me wrong, he’s fast enough. When people talk about 5 tool players, they put speed as one of the tools…his speed is ok+ for a CF, just not great. 27/09?

  • Joey H

    for a guy whose legitimacy was at question with me, for a guy who we got for nothing, he has been exactly that, a godsend. xavier nady has sparked our in some ways. he was definately a boost against lefties.

  • Joey H

    AND FUCK JESS PASSAN. hes an asshole, his analysis is HORRIBLE. just look at yahoo sports MLB page. theres a coffin with the yankees logo in it..

    • Joey H

      jeff*

    • Steve

      He got exactly what he wanted out of you.

      Have you ever heard the name Jeff Passan before today? Me neither.

      • Joey H

        yes i have, i use yahoo for alot. hes a Yahoo MLB analyist.