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Follow us on TwitterWhat Went Wrong: Starts with an M, ends with -elky
Posted by: Ben K. in Analysis. Tagged: Melky Cabrera, What Went Wrong
It’s no secret that we’re not fans of Melky Cabrera around here. We didn’t think the Yanks were making the right move in awarding him the center field job this year, and we thought the Yanks should have traded Cabrera last year when his stock was high.
After a hot April, we thought we were wrong, and we were happy to allow for the possibility. In fact, through the first week of May, it seemed as though Melky had arrived. After 31 games, Melky was hitting .291/.359/.505 with 6 HR and 17 RBI. It was all downhill from there.
Over his final 311 ABs, spanning 335 plate appearances, Melky was abysmal. He hit .235/.280/.286 with just 2 HR and 20 RBI. After walking 12 times in his first 118 plate appearances, he managed to draw just 17 free passes over that final 335 PAs. Melky Cabrera became an out machine.
As the season wore on and Melky’s numbers grew more and more grim, the Yankees did nothing. A mid-July Brett Gardner call-up didn’t net anything in the way of a replacement, and the Yanks were quick to send Brett packing. In August, the team had finally had enough, and after acquiring Xavier Nady, they moved Johnny Damon into center and Nady into left. Melky landed in AAA. While the Yankee defense would subsequently struggle — odd considering that Melky is largely overrated in center — the team had rid itself of blackhole in the lineup.
But the damage had been done. On the season, Melky was below average in every regard. For the third straight season, his rate stats (BA/OBP/SLG) declined, and his OPS+ hit 70, well below the league average. Melky managed to make Jason Varitek look like an offensive force at the plate this year. Sabermetrically, Melky pulled down a VORP of -4.0. Of players who had as many plate appearances, Melky was far and away the least productive. Replacement level would have been better, and once Brett Gardner found his groove in September, that replacement level player was better.
The question now though is twofold. First, what went wrong? A quick glance as Melky’s batting stats reveal that he was slightly unlucky this year. His BABIP, a mark which should hover around .290, was .271. His line drive percentage was steady, and his groundball rates decreased. By his fly ball numbers spiked. After a six-home run start to the season, Melky was trying to elevate his pitches, and he couldn’t get out of that rut. He didn’t hit all with runners in scoring position and struck out more often this year than last.
The next of course concers Melky’s future. Where does he go from here? It’s pretty clear that the Yanks have thankfully written him off. They will actively search for a center fielder this year and will probably be inclined to make Melky really earn his way onto the team next year if Melky isn’t traded. But trading Melky will be a problem too. If I were a GM, I wouldn’t be too keen to pick up a kid with a good arm who can’t hit particularly well and doesn’t take the best approach to fielding his position.
By himself, Melky wasn’t responsible for the Yankees’ lost season. But he was a part of it. An average outfielder — far above replacement level — such as Marlon Byrd or Vernon Wells would have netted a VORP in the mid-20s, and that three-win swing would have brought the Yanks that much closer to the playoffs.
In the end, I don’t like to gloat or revel in it. I would have rather seen Melky turn into a star or, at the very least, a serviceable center fielder. But for now, it looks like we were right, and the Yanks are stuck looking to fill a center field hole in a year in which the pickings are slim to say the least.
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gardner in center, melky to the bullpen
What’s he gonna do there? Sweep up the dugout after the game?
melky will need no secondary pitches, he will fire 200mph fastballs over the plate.
I agree. I think Melky has what it takes to be an all star bullpen catcher.
nah lefty with a fastball as a RP last forever no matter how bad they are, just look at Ron Villone
He could stand at the plate “batting” to give the pitchers confidence. Striking him out time after time would feel pretty good.
Melk and Brett in CF in 09…until Ajax is ready
Agreed.
So…your answer is accept an offensive hole, and expect Jackson to solidify the position before his 23rd birthday?
No pressure, Austin.
I gotta kick the tires on Cameron. Crappy batting average, but he still has some pop and his D, while a far cry from what it used to be, is still solid. WAAAY better than Damon.
Here’s a thought…trade Damon, sign Dunn and Cameron. Damon is basically the only vet with trade value, and to a team looking for a Proven Veteran Leadoff Man, he fits the bill — and carries limited risk as a one-year commitment. Dunn replaces the OPS of Giambi, Cameron solidifies CF for a year, and use Melky/Gardner as a defensive replacement in LF liberally.
agreed, but unfortunately the Brewers hold an option on Cameron.
and are likely to exercise it.
how about a veteran with a lot of defense like mike cameron until A-Jax is ready or until the open market has a star centerfielder?
before i comment…. lanny, what are your thoughts?
i think at this point they need to risk putting Johnny D back out there for at least a good portion of the time in 09 and bring in a corner slugger (i’m leaning towards manny just for the hell of it)
the OF is a real mess. we can’t except Johnny D to repeat 08 again, and if not he’s below average in LF, if we stick with Nady in RF then he’s probably average there too at best. if we throw in say…Mike Cameron, then our upside offesnively is average. while all 3 of them have injury concerns.
having looked at defensive metrics over the years, I say that it’s getting overblown in a lot of ways. my self conclusions
1. it’s unstable: Jeter is not automatically a blackhole at SS
2. it’s effect is overblown
3. team defense effect are not just tied to individuals. the Rays were godawful in 07 defensively, they were very good this year when the only major change in personal was Bartlett at short.
in this sense, I’d much rather go with guys have a big bat.
The Rays added Bartlett at short, improved second by moving Iwamura there and brought up Longoria for third. Basically their entire infield defense was greatly improved. They also replaced Delmon Young in right field with Gabe Gross (not sure the real impact of this). Finally, BJ Upton got about twice as much playing time in CF this year
So the Rays improved their defense by changing 4 of the 7 defensive positions (plus some of CF).
“In the end, I don’t like to gloat or revel in it. ”
. . . . but this will be the 4 time I’ve brought up that I was right, and everyone else was wrong.
Why make this article about you at all? Why not just talk about Melky? Looks bad, to be honest.
Because not mentioning it would be an “elephant in the room” situation? The article isn’t about the writers, he simply acknowledged what everyone knows. Anyone who reads this blog even semi-regularly knows what’s been said about Melky, it would be weird to not mention it.
So we’re only supposed to own up to it when we make mistakes, Steve, is that it? We can’t talk about Kennedy and Hughes without being reminded of that mistake, but Melky’s taboo?
you told me so. but now i own a cabrera t shirt. My only hopes is that we can get another cabrera who wears 24 and does an awesome job.
Jolbert?
No Ben, now you’re trying to (once again) personalize this by making it about who I liked or didn’t like. I don’t care about your, mine, or anyone else’s personal history on the subject. Its not about me or you, its about Melky and his on the field performance.
You could have simply discussed Melky (or Hughes or IPK) on the merits without getting into what camp everyone falls into on the subject. This could have simply been a Baseball discussion, not the “Melky Defenders VS Melky Haters” tit for tat you’re trying to turn this into.
I would definitely say “I told you so” in this situation. If every Yankee fan and member of the media fell in love with a player, and I was the only one who recognized he was actually completely overrated and playing over his head, than i’d gladly gloat when the inevitable became true.
You know who else put up a 70 OPS+ in his age 23 season? Carlos Beltran.
Just because he’s struggled doesn’t mean Melky should be thrown to the curb. Particularly since there are no better replacements right now (and don’t talk to me about Gardner with his 55 OPS+ being any better than Melky).
Uggggggggggggggh. Look… If you like Melky, you like him, I’m not going to try to convince you to give up on the guy. But your reasoning, your argument, is crap. Carlos Beltran’s age 23 season has NOTHING to do with Melky Cabrera’s current status or his potential for the future. And there ARE better replacements right now. Quoting Ben (above): “Melky pulled down a VORP of -4.0. Of players who had as many plate appearances, Melky was far and away the least productive. Replacement level would have been better, and once Brett Gardner found his groove in September, that replacement level player was better.” Scouts/talent evaluators have never felt this guy has projectable tools and he has been terrible in the majors. So Melky provides the double-super advantage of unacceptable performance in the present and little expectation that he will improve much. If really think he’s the best available CF option for opening day 2009 then you should take off the Melky-tinted glasses, friend. To the Melky defenders out there, I ask two simple questions: What does this guy do WELL? What does he do better than other players? (I’ll go ahead and answer first - Good arm, and good arm. That’s it, and he’s terrible at hitting baseballs.)
I guess my opening sentence was misleading. I take that part back.
Heh, I was about to say that myself.
“This notion that the United States is getting ready to attack Iran is simply ridiculous. And having said that, all options are on the table.”
lol I was just going to attack the reliance on Beltran’s age-23 numbers and not Melky’s actual worth/potential but I got a little carried away. Whoops.
The answer to the CF conundrum depends upon the time horizon the organization takes. If the Yankees move to contend in 2009 with a real chance to reach the play-offs and go deep into post-season, they would certainly benefit from a significant upgrade in CF. It would make sense to explore seriously the market for a quality CF who is in his prime, such as McClouth. (Who the Yankees should consider giving up in such a deal is a matter for a different thread.) An aging fill-in such as Cameron would cost less but also carry much less assurance that he would be a difference-maker.
If instead the team prefers a more patient approach and is less invested in winning in 2009, then it would be acceptable to try a Gardner/Damon combination. It would likely have to be for more than one year, too, because it is not realistic to expect Jackson (even with his considerable upside) to step in and perform at a high level in his first year or two.
The Gardner/Damon option also makes sense if the team upgrades dramatically at other positions such as first base and starting pitching. You don’t have to be strong everywhere, and teams (even good ones) rarely are.
Either way, I see little future for Melky as a key player for the Yankees. I suppose he could turn it around (as in the Beltran example) but there are far more players who never do. He will likely begin next year as a regular at AAA, to be used as a fill-in if he shows something over time.
Afterthought: Waiting for a star center fielder to hit the free agent market is not a plan; it’s like a farmer who prays for rain.
I can agree with part of your post but, not all.
Melky had the same problem as many others coming to the show; (other then no talent) the league made a book on him…done, end of story!
Brett in AAA; OPS .836, BA .296, OBP .414…we (most) know Brett has an adjustment time moving up to another level. After his recall, Brett hit better and with his speed and clutch hitting, won a few games for us. I am not looking at Brett as the CF of the future (maybe he will be) but for 2009, a line of; OPS .790/.815, BA .265/.275, OBP .333/.370, will get the job done. 27/09.
While the Yankee defense would subsequently struggle — odd considering that Melky is largely overrated in center — the team had rid itself of blackhole in the lineup.
overrated according to whom?
i don’t want to interrupt the Melky pile-on by pointing out “facts”, but according SG over at RLYW, Melky had a VERY solid year defensively.
http://www.replacementlevel.co.....se_edition
now, that doesn’t mean he still can’t be overrated, of course he can. but i guess i just missed this overarching perception that Melky is a defensive wizard of some sort.
i think the perception is that he is above average defensively. which, according to the numbers, he is.
so i don’t think he’s overrated or underrated, he’s just “rated”.
now, he can’t hit and shouldn’t be the CFer next year, but we don’t need to take unsubstantiated swipes at his defense either.
that’s all. carry on.
Yea. That was a ridiculous statement to make.
You call him overrated as a defender but then say it was weird the defense tanked when he left CF.
Ummm logic anyone???
I know you guys need to toot your own horn after the disastrous “Big Three” season but come on.
Off-topic character assassination FTW!
Let’s break down Ben’s reasoning: 1. I think Melky is overrated. 2. Outfield defense suffered without Melky. 3. It’s odd to me that outfield defense suffered without Melky, since I think Melky’s defense is overrated.
That reasoning seems pretty sound to me. (Disagree that his defense is overrated all you want - and even better, provide some evidence to support your opinion - but you may want to refrain from accusing people of being illogical when you don’t seem to have a grasp on the concept.)
But you don’t even have to go that deep into it. The fact that the defense suffered when Melky was benched doesn’t logically substantiate any claims that Melky was or wasn’t overrated defensively, because there’s way too many factors in play there.
Logically, any person who thinks about it logically would logically ask the logical question of “Well, who replaced Melky in center? Because, if Melky’s replacement was obviously atrocious defensively, it stands to reason, logically speaking, that the defense would suffer, even though Melky was pretty overrated himself. Logically speaking, of course.”
If we impeached President Bush and replaced him with a poo-flinging monkey, and the erratic decisions of President Chim-Chim caused unprecedented harm to the American economy, would you then badmouth anyone who made the claim that Bush wasn’t all that great of a president?
“But you don’t even have to go that deep into it. The fact that the defense suffered when Melky was benched doesn’t logically substantiate any claims that Melky was or wasn’t overrated defensively, because there’s way too many factors in play there
Yeah, I was waiting for a response before going into all that. YOU BLEW IT.
Melky is an overrated CF yet the bad defense in the OF got appreciably worse after he was sent.
And you are arguing logic???
Spare me.
Clearly, you don’t understand logic. Overrated does mean bad. Overrated simply means that people think he’s better than he was.
When he was replaced, the defenders who replaced him were worse. Hence, the defense got worse when he was replaced.
If you have something average and you think it’s above average, it’s overrated. If you have something average, and you replace it with something worse, then that thing will be worse. It’s really basic logic actually.
Thank you for proving you don’t grasp the concept of logic.
Lisa, I want to buy your rock.
Well it was a ridiculous statement but not necessarily because Melky isn’t overrated (I think he is a little). Just because of the fact that how Melky is rated is *completely irrelevant* to how bad the defensive outfield of Abreu/Damon/Nady is.
If I remember correctly, the only defensive player that was avg., (or above) was Brett Gardner…that leaves us with the fact; we need better defensive players (Johnny was bad, bad! A-Rod and Cano were close to avg.)! Melky is a better defender (all around) than Johnny, he can’t hit.
What will happen if; working with Long over the winter, Melky and Cano come into ST knocking the cover off the ball? Would anyone change their minds? I doubt it! It’s just like the criticism people have of Pavano, everyone has their minds made up. So be it! 27/09.
IF MELKY GETS AN OPPORUNITY AND HITS .320 NEXT SEASON HE’LL STILL BE TEH SUCK!1!1!1!1!1!1
That seems to be what you expect people to say. If Melky were to miraculously transform into a good hitter, do you really think any Yankees fans would NOT like him and want him in the lineup? Don’t personalize this, this isn’t about who likes Melky and who doesn’t. It’s about whether the guy can perform. I’m sure many here would toss me into the “Melky hater” group, but those people miss the point. I want every player who steps on the field in pinstripes to be awesome, nobody’s rooting against Melky or will irrationally not want him in the lineup if he can perform well. The only thing people may have their mind made up about is Melky’s past performance and perceived potential (or lack thereof). Nobody’s rooting against the guy.
You may have missed the point altogether.
I was trying to compare the dislike of Pavano to the same for Melky..in that; “If each player is a good fit for the team, likes or dislikes be damned.” How often has someone posted a “I hate Pavano” or “Pavano, no way”?
I always though you were better then that. I never personalize the response of a poster nor do I say they suck…unless, someone attacks me personally. Are we having fun yet? 27/09.
“What will happen if; working with Long over the winter, Melky and Cano come into ST knocking the cover off the ball? Would anyone change their minds? I doubt it!”
Just responding to the words on the screen, brother.
“You may have missed the point altogether.
I was trying to compare the dislike of Pavano to the same for Melky..in that; ‘If each player is a good fit for the team, likes or dislikes be damned.’”
I responded to your statement that people wouldn’t change their minds about Melky even if he were to tear the cover off the ball (which I quoted above), so I fail to see how I missed the point altogether. My response was that if Melky were to play well then, to quote you, “likes or dislikes be damned” and everyone WOULD be a Melky fan. You said “even if he plays well people won’t like him,” I responded that “if he played well people would like him,” and you responded to me by saying “you misunderstood, I was saying if he plays well people should like him.” And around we go.
Ok, you win!
If that’s your take on it I sure can’t get through to you…sorry, my mistake. NOW, are we having fun? 27/09.
Agreed. He has an absolute rocket arm and can field the position defensively, especially considering the large expanse that is the Yankees’ OF (not as sure about the new stadium’s dimensions, but I imagine they’re similar). I have never got the opinion that he wa overrated in any respect. Not like he’s winning a Gold Glove every year, but there are definite times in his defensive career where he’s saved a game for us by making a play out there.
new stadium dimensions are exactly the same
What’s the whole McLouth thing?
The guy is an average player who is terrible defensively in CF.
Never mind the fact that they are posturing now for a Santana type haul for him.
I think they’d go into the yr with Gardner in CF and spend dough on Tex and 2 prime SP’s before they paid for a CF or traded guys like Cano for a CF.
Seems like a non-issue at this point. If the Pirates value him as highly as has been reported, I wouldn’t worry about the Yanks trading for him. They’re not going to give up the farm for Nate McLouth.
I lvoe that idea but for some reason I love the idea of Dunn or Ramirez
“for some reason”
drugs?
STRONG drugs. On Dunn at least. I’d welcome Manny with open arms, the guy is still one of the top 5 RH hitters of all time. Dunn and his 180 Ks per 162 games can stay as far away from me as possible, thank you very much.
Oddly enough I was reacting more about Manny than Dunn.
And, as usual when you let raw emotion guide your critical reasoning process, you’d be wrong, radnom.
I know every bone in your body has taught you to hate Manny because he’s a Red Sox (and probably a wildly erratic, certifiable idiot.) But he’s still a FANTASTIC player, and even at an advanced age, he was probably the MVP of baseball this year (but won’t get it since he split time in the AL and NL.)
Adding a perennial MVP type bat, who’s practically immune to pressure, media attention, or slumps and slotting him right behind ARod in the batting order would be an amazingly smart baseball move, and you know it.
Do you remember the little act he pulled in Boston, and what he said about playing there? If he thinks the pressure is bad in Boston…think how he would react to the pressure in NY! God help us, if he comes to the Yanks…he would pull the same act, once he got some bad press or criticism. Love the bat, dislike the attitude.
Tex wou