Oct
31

Open Thread: The early odds

By

Over at Blogging the Bombers, Mark Feinsand has the early odds on 2009. The Yankees are at 6/1 to win the World Series with only the Phillies, Angels, Cubs and Red Sox ahead of them. Imagine how good the Yanks will look with CC Sabathia, Manny Ramirez, Mark Teixeira and Willy Tavares on the team too.

It’s interesting to see how the Rays catapulted up the standings. Prior to the season, Vegas was giving anywhere from 150/1 to 100/1 on Tampa’s winning the World Series. While Baseball Prospectus had the upstart team as clear-cut AL East competitors, Vegas was slow to realize that Tampa had a potential worst-to-first team on their hands.

Heading into 2009, the long-shots are as follows:

Kansas City Royals 100/1
Baltimore Orioles 100/1
Seattle Mariners 100/1
San Diego Padres 100/1
Pittsburgh Pirates 200/1
Washington Nationals 300/1

I wouldn’t bet on any of those teams to surprise us next year though.

So now, as we head into Halloween and a Friday night after the World Series, let’s just open this thread up to whatever. Talk baseball; talk 2009; talk life; talk rumors; talk football. Just leave the partisan politics at the door, and if you’re hanging out at home looking for a place to chat, this thread’s your landing spot.

Categories : Open Thread
  • Marty Puccio

    I’ll put $50 on Baltimore. What the hell?

    As for the Yanks, how ’bout this scenario? We overpay to get CC, sign Ben Sheets and eschew Texeira. We go with a cheap first base platoon of Kevin Millar and Juan Miranda. Any thoughts?

    • Mike W.

      I like the two pitcher signings, but if you follow your plan you better sign Manny because if you let Giambi and Abreu walk, then who the heck is going to drive in runs next year?

  • RichYF

    I’ll start it off:

    Would it be worth it to see a certain He Who Must Not Be Named’s head burst if Kennedy were traded for Taveras?

    Is it worth Kennedy to see/hear that? Honestly, to me, it is. The Cashbashing that would ensue would complete me.

    But hey, that’s just me.

  • Steve

    “Heading into 2009, the long-shots are as follows:

    Kansas City Royals 100/1
    Baltimore Orioles 100/1
    Seattle Mariners 100/1
    San Diego Padres 100/1
    Pittsburgh Pirates 200/1
    Washington Nationals 300/1

    I wouldn’t bet on any of those teams to surprise us next year though.”

    Neither would I. But if you HAD to pick one, who would it be?

    • Joey H

      Orioles.

      • Steve

        Me too, I’ll take the O’s. They have a few good young arms and a decent lineup. If they were to sign AJ Burnett and make a few other moves, you can see them contending next year.

        • Joey H

          They are 1 GOOD pitcher and 1 soso pitcher away from being a 80 win team.

          • Steve

            I think they already have one good pitcher in Guthrie. Burnett would be two, and maybe another back of the rotation type and you could be in the high 80’s. They have a few good relievers, a good lineup, they would just need a decent rotation and some luck injury-wise.

            • Joey H

              “Away” i know they have decent one already.

          • christopher

            in the AL EAST — no way

            • Joey H

              No way has no part in the AL east. I.E. the rays.

  • SWB

    You’d have to go Padres. They at least have some parts in place and play in a weak division. No way for the Royals, Orioles coming out of the East or Central. Seattle could with some decent pitching and if Bedard can come back regain his form. I can’t see the Pirates, to young and little experienced talent and the Nationals might be the worst run franchise in baseball

    • Steve

      Actually, the owner is going through a nasty divorce and has told Towers to get the payroll under 50 mil. That’s why he put Peavey on the block, and may move a few other guys as well. They’re looking at 2010.

    • RollingWave

      however, the ALC have been one of the most crazy division over the last 4 season, with every team OTHER then the royals all making the playoff at least onces and sucking at least once

  • Joey H

    PARTY AT MY PLACE! LETS GET BOMBS. happy pumpkin day folks!

    • Steve

      SOMEONE CALL THE FEDS, THIS GUY IS A TERRORIST!!!

    • Joey H

      bombed* wow lmao. It looks as if im bombed already lol. Shaddup :)

  • Ivan

    How Come Phil Hughes hasn’t pitch this week?

    • Joey H

      Didnt he get rocked his last time out? wasnt it this week?

      • Ivan

        He pitch last Friday in that All-Star Game.

        • Joey H

          Well that counts as a week. Maybe he’s a little sore.

    • Marty Puccio

      Its ‘pitched’

      • Joey H

        That’s rude dude. We aren’t english majors on here.

      • steve (different one)

        Actually, it’s “it’s”.

    • Steve

      Cashman doesn’t want him to lower his busty McBusterton trade value any further.

      He’s still hoping to get Julio Santana for him this off season.

  • Ron

    Okay, let’s say the Yanks lose out on CC. If Cash goes to Sabean and says “I’ll take Zito off your hands and pick up the rest of his contract (which is $101.5 mil for the next 5 years, including the $7 mil buyout) if you throw Cain in the deal, does Sabean do it? Would Cash do it?

    • Joey H

      And who are we giving? If cash does that i will personally resign as a yankee fan and RAB commenter. I doubt they will give us an innings eater at best and a good young pitcher for just money alone anyway.

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

        Can we put these idiotic “Barry Zito and Good Giants Player X” ideas? Please?

        The Giants are NOT going to give up any good player just to get out from under Zito’s contract. They’re just not. The Giants suck, they can’t afford to give any good players away.

        STOP.

        • Ron

          Yes, the Giants suck. Their 2008 payroll was $77 mil. In 2009, Zito will make $18.5 mil, or about 24% of the payroll. One way for them to get better is to get out from under that contract, even if it means giving up a good young player. In essence, they would be selling Cain for $101.5 mil, the amount left on Zito’s contract (provided you value Zito at zero, which is actually pretty close to his value).

          But it doesn’t matter, because even if Sabean came to Cash with the proposal, Cash would in all likelihood turn it down, as he would in effect, be paying Zito’s salary for Cain (provided you value Zito at zero, which is actually pretty close to his value).

  • Ivan

    Why would the Knicks just do themselves and Marbury a favor and cut the guy. Marbury clearly isn’t in the plans of the Knicks and Marbury wants to play much more minutes. What use does having Marbury on the bench sitting there help at all unless you play him to showcase the guy for a trade which probably won’t happen given his contract and etc. Really just cut the dude.

    • Joey H

      Marbury is perhaps as big of a piece of shit as Manny. I think Mike D’antoni is trying to make a point.

      • Ivan

        Yes Marbury isn’t the greatest “team player” in the world but he has the best talent on the Knicks and is the Knicks best player. If D’Antoni feel that Marbury doesn’t fit into his plans then release the guy. It would help both sides and resolve a issue that has the potential to be worse.

        What good is having your best player just sitting there.

        • Joey H

          I totally agree with you Ivan buddy but my point is that he is a cancer. Just like barry bonds.

    • Mike W.

      Why should the Knicks cut him, pay him $21.9 million and then let him go play somewhere else? Let him take a freaking buy-out, and go play somewhere else, or let him sit his ass on the bench and go play somewhere next year.

      • SWB

        If Marbury would take a little less money in a buyout they would do it. I don’t see why they can’t come to an agreement and both cut there losses. If he gives up 2 mil he can get it by signing with the Heat

        • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

          If you’re the D’Antoni, Walsh, or Dolan, which of these two options are worse for you and your club:

          A) You pay Stephon Marbury 21.2M to do nothing for nobody
          B) You pay Stephon Marbury 19.5M to put up a 14/6/4 for the Miami Heat, who then get that much better than you and probably push you further away from your already bleak chances of making the playoffs

          Steph ain’t going nowhere.

  • christopher

    5-1 odds are that the Red Sox sign Pavano and he wins 18 next year

    • Joey H

      4-1 odds that the Lord Jesus rises from the dead and fixes the worlds problems :)

      • Steve

        3-1 odds that the Yanks sign CC+Tex and none of this matters.

        • Joey H

          then its No odds, all truth that the yankees have a nice shiny ’09 ring ;)

          • Steve

            2-1 odds that you didn’t get the bit.

    • Mike W.

      Are you booking action on that? ha ha

  • Ron

    We give nothing, other than letting Sabean out of the worst contract he ever signed, one so bad it should have got him fired. I have no idea if he wants salary relief that bad, or if Cashman would even do it if Sabean proposed it to him. But Ben said talk about anything, so I threw it out there.

    • Joey H

      Ok so the worst contract ever signed. So wouldnt that make cash as bad as a gm?
      2 THINGS.
      1. How does this make the yankees any better? Zito is horrible in the worst division in baseball.
      2. How does he contribute at all?

      • Ron

        Obviously you would do it for Cain (the original premise being that we lost out on CC). And is Zito really worse than Ponson?

        • Joey H

          difference being ponson was signed at the minimum wasnt he?

      • steve (different one)

        i think you missed the most important part of his post. he said Cashman would take Zito off their hands IF they threw in Cain.

        • Ron

          Actually, I asked if EITHER Cash or Sabean would consider it.

        • Joey H

          But he is ridiculously paid. The guy throws 84 MPH. his curveball disappeared off the planet. I wouldnt do it . No.

          • Ron

            Yikes! Zito is almost as bad as Sir Sid. Ponson ERA 5.85, WHIP 1.64, Zito ERA 5.15, WHIP 1.6. So, I guess he would have to take Igawa’s spot on the roster.

            Actually, the more I think about it, the less sense it makes from the Yankees perspective. As much potential as Cain has, Zito’s contract is just too horrible.

            • steve (different one)

              yeah, i don’t think i would do it.

              i was just pointing out that technically it WOULD make the Yankees better (if you assume they have the money).

              they would get Cain and could simply release Zito.

              that makes the team better. just not in a very cost effiecient way.

              • Ron

                True, but then in effect you are paying Cain Zito’s contract (plus his own). No, even if Zito could be a passable 6th starter/long reliever, it wouldn’t be worth it.

                • steve (different one)

                  yeah, i didn’t think it was a bad idea until i looked up Zito’s contract.

                  yikes.

                  one way to maybe make it work would be if the Yankees ate the difference in salary between Zito and Cain, and traded Zito.

                  the other team would get Zito at Cain’s contract. there *might* be some interest there.

                  then, the yankees would be essentially paying Zito’s contract to Cain.

                  actually, no one would probably take on Zito even for Cain’s modest contract. man, what a terrible terrible contract Zito has.

          • SWB

            If we had Zito would you trade Joba or Hughes to get rid of him. Didn’t think so

            • steve (different one)

              you might.

              essentially, you’d be selling Hughes to a team for $100M.

              it wouldn’t be that dumb of a move.

              • steve (different one)

                let me add that this only works with Zito. i don’t think there is any other player with a contract that big who gives you almost no value.

                it looked a lot like Giambi was heading down this path in 2004. the yankees were lucky as heck he bounced back.

  • Steve

    “Yankees prospect Andrew Brackman (3-3) allowed two runs — one earned — on four hits while striking out seven and walking one over six innings. The former first-round pick has 27 strikeouts in 25 2/3 innings in Hawaii.”

    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/articl.....8;c_id=mlb

    Nice outing for Andrew, I understand his last one was pretty good as well.

    • Steve H

      I know it’s early, but it sounds like the command is coming back quickly considering TJ. And the stuff must be good. Very positive. Now if he sucks in his 1st start in the majors, he’s a bust.

    • LukeS

      Yes, his last two outings were very similar. Maybe the best part is that he’s up in the neighborhood of 90 pitches, as I understand it.

  • Brett

    Seattle could surprise people. Other than the Angels that division sucks. If the Angels lose a few free agents and a couple guys get hurt they could fall back. With King Felix, Bedard healthy and Morrow, and Putz at the back end, I wouldn’t want to see them in a playoff series. Their offense is terrible, but you never know.

    • RustyJohn

      I second Brett- this is Seattle’s rotation next year- Felix, Bedard, Morrow, Ryan Rowland Smith and either Silva or Washburn as their fifth starter (I’d assume they’d move Washburn in the off-season.) Their bullpen is good.

      If they get a couple of left-handed bats they are in good shape- coincidentally, there happens to be vacancies at first (Giambi), DH (Giambi) and in the outfield (Abreu).

      Let us assume they get one (or hell, for shits and giggles, both) Their line-up would be Ichiro, Jose Lopez (1st in rbi among 2nd basemen, 3rd in batting- i know, meaningless stats), Abreu, Beltre, Giambi, Balentine, Clement, Jojima, Betancourt.

      One would assume that would put them second in the league in runs behind Texas and give them the second best pitching in the division.

      • Mike Pop

        Ya but they are most likely gonna move Beltre in the offseason.. They wouldnt sign Abreu because they are trying to rebuild ya know…Im not trying to call you guys out but I just dont think they are gonna make any signings. Just try to rebuild

  • Frank

    Everyone make sure to root for those Red Raiders tomorrow.

  • LukeS

    Why did KC do that Jacobs trade? Anybody know anything about this Billy Butler character who saw some time at 1st base for the not-so-royal Royals?

    • aaron empty

      i really am not sure why they did it, other than they were completely power starved, but jake cant gt on base so the power is not as appealing plus he cant field. hes worse then betimit. butler isnt great either, not good in the field, one dimentional hitter…no one on kc can get on base, and now they bring in another dude who cant either

    • Charles

      Yeah. Also, intrigued by that trade. Does that mean Butler is available? And realistically, what would it take for the Yanks to pry him away from the Royals?

      • aaron empty

        i dont know…hes ok, but he cant field, no power

        • Steve H

          Righthanded Sean Casey. no thanks.

          • aaron empty

            162 Game Avg: 14 hr, 282 .334 .420. i mean if hes free or dirt cheap give him a shot, other wise, pass

          • http://salarydump.wordpress.com Joltin’ Joe

            Yeah but Sean Casey can catch the ball!!!! XD

  • Manimal

    Big game for the Giants on Sunday.

    • Mike Pop

      Ya they going down

    • Mike W.

      Manimal,

      Did Gerritt Cole seriously say that stuff that you wrote today?

      • Manimal

        yeah.

  • http://salarydump.wordpress.com Joltin’ Joe

    I’d be interested in a Kila Kia’hue even if we get Tex, he’s a very underrated prospect and the Royals couldn’t have been too confident in him if they swapped Leo Nunez for Mike Jacobs.

    • aaron empty

      now were talkin, although i wonder what itd take to get him

      • http://salarydump.wordpress.com Joltin’ Joe

        I would think they would want some sort of an outfielder but I could be mistaken. Pitching is not exactly a surplus for them, though, so they’d do well to look into both. What about IPK + Suttle/Curtis? That’s pretty fair I think.

        • aaron empty

          im not familiar with those two prospects. b level? what do u know about them?

          • http://salarydump.wordpress.com Joltin’ Joe

            Curtis has a chance to be an average starting outfielder or at least a very good 4th (from what I’ve read, mostly here on RAB).

            Suttle is a solid left-handed hitting third baseman who’s a little further down in the system. I could be wrong but I think he played High-A Tampa in ’08 so he could end up in Double-A Trenton this year. Once again this is what I remember.

            For some reason I thought Suttle was an OF. Oh well, maybe Justin Snyder would be a better piece, or someone else.

        • whozat

          Even if they get Teixeira? What would be the point of getting a somewhat defensively limited 1B after signing a better player to a long term deal?

          If they don’t get him…well, maybe. The kid put up good numbers in AA and AAA this year, but he has a pretty small sample size at AAA.

          I dunno. League-average starters (which is what I think Kennedy will be sooner rather than later) are worth more than a decent bat at 1B. Both have some risk, and both have decent upside. I dunno. I think that waiting a half year for Ian to rebuild value would be better than dumping him now.

  • http://salarydump.wordpress.com Joltin’ Joe

    If anyone’s interested I’m programming a trading calculator thingy in Java right now, once I get a decent version working I’d be glad to post it on my site for anyone who wants to mess with it.

  • John

    hey guys i know nothing about arbitration….can players reject it? can you gimme a quick tutorial?

    • http://salarydump.wordpress.com Joltin’ Joe

      A player’s contract is up. The team can offer him arbitration, which is essentially a case in which each side presents what they feel is a fair salary for the next season. Usually this doesn’t happen and the two sides reach a compromise as to avoid the debate.

      Although players need six (6) seasons of MLB service time to become free agents, they are eligible for arbitration after three (3). This guarantees them higher pay.

      So a player is either eligible or he is a free agent. The team offers arbitration, and the player is not a potential free agent. If he rejects, they can non-tender him (basically release him). They can also do that if they do not want to offer arbitration to him at all.

      If the player is eligible for free agency and is offered arbitration, he can deny it with no consequences whatsoever. Free agents don’t usually accept it because it is only a one-year contract and even mediocre free agents get multi-year contracts regularly. The team cannot sign him to an arbitrated contract that is less than 80% of the previous’ years’ salary, whether the previous contract was arbitrated or not.

      Also, I do not know if I left anything out. Chime in anyone who thinks I made an error.

      • Mike Pop

        Great job explaining it

  • http://salarydump.wordpress.com Joltin’ Joe

    I finished a basic version of my trade calculator; right now you can only do 1-for-1 trades, but I’m tracing all of the calculations so I can see if it’s making any sense. My test “variables” are Evan Longoria and Matt Cain, and Longoria is worth slightly more. As of this moment, the following variables taken into consideration:

    Age
    Postion
    Overall Rating (0-100)
    Potential Rating (i.e. Ceiling) (0-100)
    Contract Years Left
    Total Salary Owed Over Contract

    I’m still working out some bugs but I’d would definitely like to make this thing a full-fledged little Java game if possible.