Oct
24

RLYW: Teixeira a great fit for the Bronx

By

Mark Teixeira is a premier defensive first baseman who hits for power and does a stellar job getting on base. In the words of Buster Olney, he is the perfect fit for the Yanks. While numerous Yankee bloggers have made the case for Teixeira, yesterday, SG at Replacement Level Yankee Weblog ran the numbers and showed that a seven-year deal for Teixeira would be ideal. His 2015 projections have Teixeira at .268/.365/.483 in 2015 at the end of a tenure in the Bronx that projects to 201 HR with a .280/.378/.508 line. I’d take that in a heartbeat for $22 million a year.

Categories : Asides, Hot Stove League

117 Comments»

  1. TurnTwo says:

    a-f’n-men.

    he’s about as close to a guarantee production for your investment type of player as you are going to find nowadays.

    7 years/$150 million. done.

  2. Ivan says:

    Well he does alot of things that the yanks lacked this season, which is defense, OBP guys and of course his offensive prowleness.

    Considering that the yanks are not gonna have no abreu and no Giambi with their offense and OBP, Tex really makes alot of sense. Then all of a sudden you can live with the offense at CF and maybe RF.

    Plus, the right side of ya infield is pretty good with Cano and Tex with the potential D they got and of course the offense.

    A line up of

    Damon (LF)
    Jeter (SS)
    Tex (1B)
    A-Rod (3B)
    Matsui (DH)
    Posada (C, can flip flop him and Matsui really between the 5th and 6th spot)
    Cano (2B)
    Nady (RF)
    Gardner (CF)

    Not bad eh?

  3. Old Ranger says:

    Most of the bloggers on this site have been in the tank for signing Tex and CC…sounds like a stellar deal to me. Getting both will fill two holes that need filling with quality players.
    If we can sign both of them, I don’t think we need anyone else…unless it’s someone similar to Crawford.
    Pitching; CC, CMW, Joba, Andy, Phil, (Pavano?) etc. I still would entertain a trade of Johnny and let Brett play CF full time. 27/09.

  4. Mike A. says:

    His 2015 projections have Teixeira at .268/.365/.483 in 2015 at the end of a tenure in the Bronx that projects to 201 HR with a .280/.378/.508 line. I’d take that in a heartbeat for $22 million a year.

    Jason Giambi hit .260-.404-.521 with 209 HR during his 7 years in the Bronx, during which he earned an avg of $14.7M per year. Is Tex’s defense worth an extra ~$8M per year?

    • radnom says:

      Different market from 7 years ago. Boras client. Plus you have to figure Tex to be more consistent and not miss nearly as much time with injuries.

      Front load the contract and add an opt out clause for him somewhere down the line.

      • Mike A. says:

        Giambi didn’t spend a day on the DL until 2004. He was healthy as a horse before signing with the Yanks, much like Tex now.

        I’m just trying to point out that back then Giambi was Tex. They signed him long-term to play first and that solved all their problems. A few years later, people couldn’t wait to get rid of him.

        • Ivan says:

          A better comparison would be comparing him to Beltran. Both are players who are terrfic players and can flat out ball but aren’t great/superstar type players who will get superstar money.

          Beltran plays a premium position and has more of all-around game than Tex, but Tex is a better offensive player/hitter.

          Both when they fit FA were the top position player and of course both are switch hitters and are very good OBP guys.

        • AndrewYF says:

          Actually, Giambi was in a different stratosphere than Tex. Much better on-base skills and much better power.

          However, Tex is such a better bet to remain healthy. (Most likely) didn’t do STEROIDS!, much better athletic build. I can’t really see him missing entire years of production either. Not to mention his above-average defense, which is a lot more valuable than people realize. He’s also a switch-hitter.

          And a very important thing: it’s only money.

        • JeffG says:

          Healthy as a horse? Giambi was taking horse steroids… and when he stopped so did a lot of the pop.
          Now I would just be assuming things but I’d say that once Tex joins the team (if he does) there shouldn’t be a massive delcine based on the change in “diet.”

          • Mike Pop says:

            Tex is the 2nd best first baseman in the game. Why wouldnt you want him on our team.. You front load the deal and give him special services, free limo rides for his wife ya know and your set, he makes our lineup the best in the league.. plus switch hitter which is always nice

        • radnom says:

          Didn’t spend a day on the dl until he missed almost a whole season. Plus Giambi had TONS of nagging injuries which kept him out of the lineup/hitting poorly/in the DH spot. We were talking about DHing Giambi more the first year he was here, that certainly won’t happen with Tex.

          Also, Tex is 2 year younger, and a completely different body type.

    • Old Ranger says:

      One word….inflation!
      One should look into the stats on how many run/runners Jasons’ (lack of) defence cost the team over those seven years. 27/09.

    • AndrewYF says:

      He signed for 7 years, $120 million. How does that equate to $14.7 million a year?

      • Mike A. says:

        That includes the option that won’t be picked up. His actual salary breakdown was:

        2002: $8M
        2003: $9M
        2004: $10M
        2005: $11M
        2006: $18M
        2007: $21M
        2008: $21M

        Add in the $5M buyout, and that adds up to $103M. Spread that over the 7 yrs he played for the Yanks, and you get $14,714,285.72 per year.

        • AndrewYF says:

          I think what’s missing from this is his RIDICULOUS $17 million signing bonus. From the indespensible Cot’s:

          7 years/$120M (2002-08), plus $22M 2009 club option

          * signed as a free agent 12/01
          * $17M signing bonus (paid over 6 years: $3M in 02, $4M in 03, $4M in 04, $4.5M in 05, $1M in 06, $0.5M in 07)
          * 02:$8M, 03:$9M, 04:$10M, 05:$11M, 06:$18M, 07:$21M, 08:$21M, 09:$22M club option ($5M buyout)
          * full no-trade clause

    • KW says:

      Like everyone else is saying, inflation. Giambi of yore hitting FA right now would fetch more than Tex for sure.

    • A.D. says:

      But the Yankees thought they were signing 320/470/640 when they signed Giambi, which they didn’t get. And even so I don’t think people had a problem until the avg dropped & he came out doing roids & he was hurt.

      Also Tex will be 2 years younger, and 29 & 30 are usually top years

    • Chris says:

      Giambi was well worth the contract. As the numbers show, he performed very well during his time with the Yankees, and was one of the top 5 1B/DH in the league over those 7 years. Just because people expected more doesn’t mean he wasn’t worth what he got.

  5. Relaunch says:

    What a steal for $22Mil! The economics of baseball and sports is disgusting and is only going to get worse.

  6. Simon B. says:

    His production from firstbase is good, but not particularly impressive. He’s not worth anywhere near the monster contract he’s going to get. Stay away, please. He’s going to get much more money than his value indicates simply on virtue of being the “top position player” of the ’09 FA market.

    • Simon B. says:

      Ugh, I can’t believe how fans can be so willing to accept these monster contracts. Even for really special players, I’m very reluctant. Teixeira is not a very special player. He’s a good player at the easiest position to fill (1B) in the prime of his career who will decline and likely never hit the way he has this year—which wasn’t eye-popping in the first place.

      • “Ugh, I can’t believe how fans can be so ________________”

      • steve (different one) says:

        almost everything you said here is wrong, or at best highly debatable.

        His production from firstbase is good, but not particularly impressive.

        sure it is.

        He’s not worth anywhere near the monster contract he’s going to get.

        you may be right, we won’t know until we see the contract. but certain smart people, like the person linked in this very post, have done projections and have determined that yes, he will be worth a monster contract BASED ON EVERYTHING WE KNOW TODAY. that’s all we can do.

        if that’s not good enough, you will never sign an elite player to a big contract.

        Teixeira is not a very special player.

        sure he is.

        and likely never hit the way he has this year

        why not? he’s only 28.

        which wasn’t eye-popping in the first place

        nonsense. he hit .308/.410/.552 this year.

        how is that not “eye popping”? he got on base in 41% of his plate appearances.

        what is the standard here? A-Rod’s 2007? Pujols?

    • AndrewYF says:

      He’s probably the top position player of the next three free agent markets.

      Players just don’t reach free agency in their primes anymore, and it’s looking to become less and less of a possibility.

      • Mike Pop says:

        exactly Andrew, the next player to hit FA in their prime might be one of the Uptons but until then I dont know. Tex should be on the Yanks. Him and A-Rod best 3-4 in baseball

        • Reggie C. says:

          Probably so.

          Hopefully Mats & Nady are good for .280 / .370 / .450 stat lines apiece. Though i’d like to see Nady slug higher than .450.

  7. Ivan says:

    The theory is that if your gonna pay that type of money, you might as well pay it to the safer position player which is Tex.

    To be honest I really don’t know who the yanks should go after between CC or Tex. You can make arguements for both. Tex would be the ideal fit if you look at the yanks in 08.

  8. Mike Pop says:

    Yanks should give him a 6 or 7 yr deal worth 150 but they should sign CC first and use that as another reason to entice Tex to the Bronx. Tell him its the best place to make yourself a hall of famer and best place to be in the running for the Series every year

  9. JeffG says:

    If we gave Tex 22 mill which sounds high (I think 20x7yrs should more than cover) he’d still be making 10 less than A-Rod.

  10. Mulls says:

    forget it these long term contracts just blow up in our faces, cant the yanks just run a cantu/miranda platoon at first next year..the splits are to die for.

  11. Barry says:

    And we traded Nick Johnson.

  12. Yank Crank 20 says:

    If only it was that easy guys. The Sox, Mets and Angels will all be bidding high for him. It may come down to the Yanks and Sox, and if we have to choose between giving $25 million a year to either Tex or CC, who do you choose?

    • Yank Crank 20 says:

      Orioles too.

    • AndrewYF says:

      Why do the Yankees have to choose who to give money to?

      I will be really annoyed if the Yankees’ payroll is under $175 million.

      • Yank Crank 20 says:

        Annoyed? Just because they have money coming off the books doesn’t mean they need to rush to fill it up. I’d like to think the Yankees learned the last 7 years that throwing money around doesn’t solve every problem. How spoiled does it sound to say i’d be annoyed if my favorite team’s payroll is under a measly $175 million?

        • AndrewYF says:

          The Yankees’ biggest advantage is their massive amount of money. If they’re not using that advantage to its fullest potential (meaning signing some of the best free agents we’ve seen and will see for quite a while), then yes, I will get annoyed.

          • chritospher says:

            this is a makke or break off season. an offseason where this team can rebuild a core for the next 6-7 years including a dominant pitching staff if they get 2 of the big 5 – personally i would rather sheets than lowe as sheets will be undervalued because of past injuries.

            look at past years – premium ACE pitchers do not make it to free agency anymore. they are either kept or traded a year before. this year an ACE who makes up for the santana debacle is available for only money.

            I love texiera, but i wouldnt mind seeing that money spent on two guys who would fill needs and fit the offesnse well – burrell and Dunn.

            • Ben K. says:

              You’d rather have Burrell and/or Dunn instead of Teixeira? That’s foolish. There’s no reason why the Yanks couldn’t sign Teixeira, a far superior player to Dunn, and Burrell. Not that the team needs yet another outfielder…

    • A.D. says:

      Sox are apparently not that interested in either player, but I would probably choose Tex.

      • Yank Crank 20 says:

        We really don’t know for sure. If you were the Sox, would you explore trading Lowell and signing Tex to really improve your team? I would. You really never know what GMs are thinking, and with the Sox payroll relief from not having to give Manny $20 million plus a year, they can make something work for Tex.

  13. Scott of 3 Kids Tickets says:

    Youwant to give a .270 hitter a 7 yr contract? No wonder our economy is in shambles. No one has common sense.

    -Scott

    • “Ugh, I can’t believe how fans can be so ________________”
      “No wonder we’re in shambles, look at _________________”
      “_____________ shows that you have no common sense”

    • steve (different one) says:

      are you talking about Teixeira?

      1. Batting average is not a very good metric
      2. Batting average is not a very good metric

      3. not that that is covered, let’s get to the facts:

      Teixeira is a .290 hitter in his career.

      in 2008, he hit .308
      in 2007, he hit .306
      in 2006, he hit .282
      in 2005, he hit .301

      where did you get .270 from?

  14. Simon B. says:

    Just to expand on my opposition versus Teixeira: People keep saying that Tex is better than Giambi when he signed because he’s more likely to stay healthy (due to being younger, and presumably not being on steroids).

    The problem with that? The entire advantage and drawback of free agency is that it’s short-term relief, but long-term pain. Giambi was not just a better hitter, he was TWICE the hitter Tex was. If you look up VORP (I know, not a great stat, but easiest thing to use here), Giambi literally had almost twice the VORP in the season preceding his signing. He was an incredible hitter. They aren’t even close.

    Counting on a free agent to contribute at premium levels 3-4 years into their signing is almost entirely a coin toss. These players are leaving their primes very soon after you sign them. Projection systems aren’t remotely advanced enough to predict which ones hold up decently.

    Signing a free agent shouldn’t ever be regarded as a long-term solution—even for a great player. That’s what farm systems are for. The free agent market is for short term relief, and Tex’s offense isn’t good enough to justify such a contract.

    • Reggie C. says:

      I don’t think its much of a “coin toss” 3-4 years into the signing if the player is going to still be in his baseball playing prime. Teixiera as a 33 year old shouldn’t be in bad shape. The steroid-free thing is also pretty key here.

      • Simon B. says:

        But baseball is a very volatile atmosphere. The further you look ahead in the future, the less certain it is. Tex may not be terribly old in 4 years, but the chance of him staying as a premium hitter becomes smaller and smaller every subsequent year from the current vantage point.

        The point I’m trying to make, even if I’m having trouble articulating it, is that people are justifying the Teixeira contract on the basis that it makes sense long-term, but no FA contract that big makes sense longterm; they are all sacrifices for the short term, and Tex’s short-term hitting is merely good, not great. “Superstars” drop off all the time. The sacrifice is too great just to get a good hitter in here.

        I think a good strategy the Yankees should employ using their financial muscle is to sign guys like Milton Bradley. Whenever I bring him up, fans shoot me down with “He’s always injured!” Yes, but when healthy, he’s a better hitter than Teixeira, and will cost less than of a fifth.

        • A.D. says:

          Actually i would think they should use their financial muscle to sign the most apparent “sure things”. Milton Bradley types should be signed by orgs with less money that can’t afford the big contracts and need to take on greater risk for the same potential reward.

          • Simon B. says:

            Nothing’s sure in baseball. Better to go with low risk, high yield acquisitions than 150m+ for a firstbasemen who’s not even that great of a hitter.

            • But, using your logic, that we should focus on the observable past to determine the immediate future, how can you advocate for Bradley?

              Even putting aside the injury risk (which is considerable), Bradley has NEVER been a dramatically good hitter before the past 14 months, the bulk of which was spend at a hitters paradise which totally skewed his production to an unsustainably high level.

              Bradley is a mirage. A mirage that breaks down. The chances of him disappointing us, even only on a 2-3 year contract, are much higher than the chances of Texy disappointing us on a 7 year one.

        • steve (different one) says:

          and Tex’s short-term hitting is merely good, not great.

          no, it is “great”.

          it is not “one-of-the-greatest-offensive-2-season-stretches-of all time” great like Giambi’s steroid-fueled days in Oakland were.

          it’s not “one-of-the-20-greatest-hitters-of-all-time” great like Pujols’ offensive output.

          but it is still “great”.

          he is a career .290/.378/.541 hitter. that’s good for a career OPS+ of 134.

          that is getting into Hall of Fame territory.

          i wouldn’t say he is on his way to the HoF yet, but he is 28 and 3 of his last 4 seasons have been Hall of Fame quality.

          he’s a great hitter.

          you can be great and not in the Bonds/Pujols/A-Rod stratosphere. those guys are better than great, they are historically great.

          if Teixeira’s offense is merely “good”, what is Jeter? average?

        • Hitman says:

          I agree with everything you’ve said except for signing Bradley who is going to want at least a 3-4 deal based on his good year. That’s unacceptable. What the yankees should do is making a couple of good under the radar trades and signings this offseason to shore up center and right but that’s it. Unfortunately first base should remain a black hole for now. That position should not be a priority.

          • “Unfortunately first base should remain a black hole for now. That position should not be a priority.”

            I’m still waiting for you to explain this reasoning. First base is a prime spot to fill with a guy who’s a premium hitter. They’ve been doing it that way since baseball was invented. We need premium hitters, there’s premium hitters available on the market, and we have a natural hole opening at first base.

            First Base and Adding a Bat have to be premium priorities.

    • radnom says:

      You are missing the point as to why we are saying Tex is younger and more athletic.

      Yes Giambi was much, much better the year before he signed than Tex will ever be but because his body broke down he had a SEVERE drop off and a season that was a complete wash. Still, his contract ended up being tolerable, because he started off so high. Tex is not set up to drop off like that. Sure, he isn’t a 28 year old Giambi, but we know what we are going to get from him and he is projected to be much more consistent hitter throughout the length of the contract than Giambi was.

  15. Hitman says:

    Hmm, 22 million a year for the next 7 or more years with a guaranteed contract and the inability to trade yet another soon to be aging player on the yankees? What does this sound like to you? He’s good but honestly 154 million for a first baseman?

  16. Old Ranger says:

    If I remember right, aren’t there 5-6 top notch players coming out next year (2010)?
    1-2 on Tampas’ team and a couple from other small market teams…without the money they were getting from the Yanks, they can’t afford to sign them. Should the Yankees look into trading for one or two of them? If the cost is right, I think they should, after all, we do have a plethora of young arms…everyone needs pitching. 27/09.

    • A.D. says:

      Next year its Holliday & Crawford then it would be Bay & Nady, then Vlad, tejada, Ankiel, Damon in the older category.

      Basically next year isn’t more interesting, nor is their a guarentee these guys come to market

    • steve (different one) says:

      i’d love to trade for Crawford, but the odds of TB trading Crawford to the NY Yankees are slim and none.

      Holliday could be a possibility.

  17. Manimal says:

    Holy tits. Gerrit Cole accepted my facebook friend request. ZOMG.

  18. Troy says:

    Friggin sign this guy. He wants to play in the northeast. 7 yr/150 is pretty ideal. Done and done

    He needs to be a Yankee

  19. [...] Sabathia and Teixeira and still have plenty of cash left over for Moose or Pettitte. As Andrew YF said earlier today, “The Yankees’ biggest advantage is their massive amount of money.” How they use it [...]

  20. Baseballnation says:

    That’s if his contract starts at 18 million, and ends at 22!

  21. ohbwonhomie says:

    sign the guy, trade Damon and Hughes to the Rockies for Holliday. Even with his lower road splits I’ll take Holliday if we can pull off a trade w/out emptying our milbs(which I would’ve for Peavy, but the @#$% doesnt want NY so forgetboutit) for Holliday I doubt it cost us as much. whata lineup:

    Jeter ss
    Cano 2b
    arod 3b
    Tex 1b
    Holliday lf
    Posada c
    matsui dh
    nady rf
    gardner cf

    molina c
    ransom inf
    cabrera of
    ??

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