The straight and Lowe-down

Ortiz, A-Rod know the vagaries of fandom
Brackman's struggle with command continues

Picking up on some rumors that the Yanks may make an offer for Dodgers pitcher Derek Lowe, SG at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog ran the numbers on Lowe yesterday to see how the sinkerball specialist may fare in the Bronx. SG’s analysis turns out a pitcher who could fill the middle of the Yankee rotation at a good price for three years. While SG would rather see the Yanks sign Andy Pettitte for one season, Lowe seems to be a better bet for less money than A.J. Burnett would be be. I’m still not, however, sold on the idea.

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Ortiz, A-Rod know the vagaries of fandom
Brackman's struggle with command continues
  • radnom

    I’m not sure how Lowe became someone who everybody wants the Yankees to sign all of a sudden but I’m not sold either. I mean, you have to figure that one of Pettite or Mussina will not retire. You sign one of them and CC and that would be all they should buy. No Lowe.

    • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

      I’ve made numerous staunchly anti-Lowe comments here, but I actually think I can take a stab at answering your first question. Let’s say you sign CC and one of Andy/Moose comes back, per your comment. You’ve got CC, Wang, Andy/Moose, Joba, ________ in the rotation. I think people are asking themselves, who is filling that fifth slot? I’m a huge Hughes fan but I’m not ready to pencil him nor any other prospect into that fifth slot. To me it’s not a question of whether he can give you a representative performance there, it’s more a question of whether you want to be relying on him in that slot (because, if he falters, you’re starting Aceves/Rasner types again). I don’t mean to knock Hughes – I think what I’m really getting at is, say you start Hughes in that fifth slot and then CC’s arm literally falls off his body one day while he’s eating a hot dog… There’s a certain measure of depth you gain by having Hughes (et al) in the minors or the ‘pen, ready to fill the void. He’ll get his shot at some point, there’s no need to pencil him in. Also keep in mind that Joba’s not giving you 200 innings in 2009. So who do you want in that fifth slot? I think a lot of people are turning to Lowe because he’s been durable and decent the last few years, so there’s some safety in relying on him to hold down the rotation spot (especially when compared to someone like Burnett or Sheets, who nobody in their right mind would rely on to pitch 200 innings per season).

      Before coming after me, please remember that I was just making the argument above, it’s not my personal opinon. All that being said, I don’t want Derek Lowe. I’d rather not commit 4 years to a guy who I don’t consider a premium pitcher.

      • radnom

        Hm, that does kind of explain it. It just seems to me like the general consensus went from anti-Lowe to all of a sudden a “must sign” rather quickly though.

        It seems we are on the same page on Lowe though, I honestly have NO reservations about penciling in Hughes/Aceves/whoever else for that fifth spot. With CC, Wang and Joba fronting the rotation, you can afford to let Hughes learn at the ML level. Sure, Lowe would be nice to add some depth, but not worth the money/years. I really don’t want him around here 3-4 years from now.

        • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

          Yup, I’m with you. I do see where the Lowe-proponents are coming from though, and I can’t argue with the notion that there’s absolutely nothing wrong with depth in the rotation and some reliability in the back-end. I’d point out to those people, though, that I disagree with their conclusion that Derek Lowe necessarily serves those purposes. I think people have a tendency to look backwards at a player’s stats and not to project into the future. You think Derek Lowe is giving you 200 innings per season for the next 4 seasons with decent production in those innings? Then you go for him, and I disagree. I also think there’s a danger in simply picking the best available option because it’s the best available option.

          • whozat

            I think it’s also an over-reaction to the poor results generated by Hughes and Kennedy this season. That effort went really unexpectedly badly — and the primary backup plan (Horne) was hurt all year, and even Karstens was hurt early when we might have wanted to squeeze some outings from him. And then Giese got hurt, after slotting competently into the rotation.

            I don’t disagree with people who want depth, but I don’t think that signing a 36 year old to a 4 year big-money deal is the way to get it. Take an injury-risk flier, or other short-term deal.

            • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

              “Take an injury-risk flier, or other short-term deal.”

              Two words: Kris Benson. Cash – Make it so.

              • http://www.riveraveblues.com Ben K.

                That is beyond a waste of money, time and resources. When you have the resources of the Yankees, Kris Benson makes little to no sense.

                • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

                  I think he was joking.

                • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

                  Yeah I was kidding, sorry. Should have made it more clear.

                • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

                  PS: Now watch Benson go out for some team and have some insane turnaround in 2009.

            • Chris C.

              “I think it’s also an over-reaction to the poor results generated by Hughes and Kennedy this season.”

              BINGO!!!!!!!!
              The comment of the day! 100% correct.
              I mean GEEEZZZ, do you people think pitchers like Jon Lester, Mike Pelphrey, and James Shields came to the majors and immidiately hit the ground running?

              Only in Yankeeland would Ian Kennedy be “finished”, and Phil Hughes be a “bust” and be replaced by aging, overrated, soon-to-be overpaid pitchers.

              The same people who are crying for the Yankees to get Burnett, Lowe, Sheets, Pettitte. etc, are also the same people who will roast Cashman if these guys end up stinking, or injured..
              We’ve already seen such hypocricy regarding Pavano.

      • Chris C.

        “To me it’s not a question of whether he can give you a representative performance there, it’s more a question of whether you want to be relying on him in that slot (because, if he falters, you’re starting Aceves/Rasner types again).”

        Yeah, that’s a terrible spot to be in for your 5th starter. I just hated watching Aceves prove why he was such a stud in the minors. It was painfull watching him string one quality inning after another together.
        I mean, if the Yankees operate that way, they may just find a diamond in the rough, and who wants that?

        I’d much rather just HAND Andy Pettitte the third spot in the rotation, and stay away from the “Aceves types”. That certainly seems to be the way the Red Sox and Rays operate.

        • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

          Dude, I wasn’t crapping on any of those guys. Simply making the argument that depth is a good thing. I knew that Aceves comment would piss someone off, and I really didn’t intend it that way. My bad.

          • Chris C.

            Okay…..and I’ll go you one further……..I don’t even think Daryl Rasner was that bad this year. Go look up his appearences…….he gave the Yankees alot of quality starts. The problem with Rasner was Girardi. He killed the guy’s confidence by contantly lifting him too early in ballgames.

            Girardi once took Rasner out after giving up a solo homer in the 6th inning against Baltimore where he only threw 70 pitches.
            The score was 1-0.
            So after pitching his guts out, Girardi takes the guy out leaving him only with a chance for a ND or a loss.
            An inning later, Hawkins made sure he got that loss!

            Rasner should have had 12 wins this year, but the team didn’t hit for him, and Girardi used him poorly.

            Is Rasner great? No. Was he better than the overall numbers show? Much!

            • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

              You’re tilting at windmills. Nobody is denigrating the record of the great Darrell Rasner.

          • Chris C.

            Dude, I wasn’t crapping on any of those guys. Simply making the argument that depth is a good thing.

            It depends on what that depth is earning. Because you’d be foolish to believe that if the Yankees went out and brought in 2 or 3 new pitchers and paid a fortune to do it, that they could ever be replaced in the rotation if they flounder.

            That’s been the problem with the Yankees……..guys like Pettitte are allowed to be as bad as possible and not lose their rotation spot because they’re making a fortune.

            Those days have to end……ESPECIALLY with the division they’re in.

            • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

              Moose missed starts late in 2007 because he was pitching poorly. In 2008 Wang, Joba, Hughes and Kennedy all went down with injuries, and all indications are that Pettitte pitched while hurting for a good portion of the season. Depth is a FANTASTIC thing. Pettitte didn’t keep his rotation spot in 2008 because he as making a fortune, he kept his spot because he was the best option for that spot at that time.

            • Nady Nation

              “That’s been the problem with the Yankees……..guys like Pettitte are allowed to be as bad as possible and not lose their rotation spot because they’re making a fortune.”

              It seems as though YOU are the one who is clinging to the 1996 days. Andy Pettitte is no longer an ace, although you expect his performance to be equivalent to that of one. For what he is, a middle to back-end rotation guy, he’s more than serviceable. As was already pointed out by whozat and myself below, Pettitte was not nearly as bad as you are making him out to be. But besides that, have you ever taken a minute to think that maybe the importance that was placed on Pettitte’s starts and performance was a direct result of both Hughes and Kennedy, your proposed solutions for the rotation this upcoming season, combining for 0 wins ALL YEAR. Pettitte had Rasner and Ponson pitching behind him so if he pitched poorly, the fans of course were going to say Andy let us down bc they knew how shitty the pitchers next up in the rotation were. It’s not his fault that Hughes and Kennedy literally contributed 0 to the season. Please note that I am in no way suggesting to trade Kennedy or Hughes, but merely that they shouldn’t just be awarded rotation spots – the exact trap we fell into this year. Was Andy disappointing this year as our 2-3 starter? No doubt. But to say the Yankees shouldn’t even entertain the thought of bringing him back on a 1 year deal, when NO ONE else on the free agent market of his caliber would accept such a deal, is just assinine.

        • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

          I’d like to point out, though, that the starters for the Rays/Sox were never exactly “diamond in the rough” types. I assume you’re referring to the Lesters, Edwin Jacksons, Matt Garzas and James Shields(es?) of the world. Those guys were all pretty highly regarded prospects. It would be fantastic if Aceves pans out and is a “diamond in the rough,” I just disagree with your assertion that somehow I’m saying the Yanks shouldn’t be developing pitching prospects from within and I think your comparison to those teams is inaccurate.

          • Chris C.

            Hughes, Kennedy, and Aceves are highly regarded prospects too. So how is my comparison off base?

            The days of dumping Hughes to the minors are over. The guy can pitch on this level, it is evident he can pitch WELL on this level, and will accomplish nothing by ending up at Scranton.
            He needs three things on the major league level……….experience, coaching, and organizational patience.
            The Yankees were ready to give that to him in 2008, until he was derailed by an injury.
            They should do the same in 2009, if they have any designs of becoming a solid organization once again.

            • whozat

              Aceves is not a highly regarded prospect. He was signed out of the mexican league last season, dominated the low minors because he had VASTLY greater experience than they did and could out-think them on the mound.

              He’s mexican Darrell Rasner. Which is fine, and that does have value. Ras was a great fill-in for a half a season, but then got exposed. These guys are swingmen/back end NL starters, and they can have long a lucrative careers doing that. But that doesn’t make them a part of any kind of long-term planning.

              Anyone think they’ll be able to keep Dan Geise in the organization? I loved him as the long-reliever/swingman. It was so great to follow Joba with him and watch guys get totally wrong-footed by his 88MPH fastball after Joba’s 96 MPH heat :-)

            • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

              If Hughes pitches in AAA, why does that have to be considered “dumping” him to the minors. You can be a Hughes fan and not be offended that he be sent to the minors to develop and mature. The two are not mutually exclusive.

            • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

              Your comparison is off-base because you said:

              “I just hated watching Aceves prove why he was such a stud in the minors. It was painfull watching him string one quality inning after another together. I mean, if the Yankees operate that way, they may just find a diamond in the rough, and who wants that? I’d much rather just HAND Andy Pettitte the third spot in the rotation, and stay away from the “Aceves types”. That certainly seems to be the way the Red Sox and Rays operate.”

              You were the one referred to Aceves as a “diamond in the rough,” and you were the one who insinuated that “finding a diamond in the rough” is the way the Sox/Rays operate. I’m just responding to your words.

    • Chris C.

      Why in the world do people want Andy Pettitte back???? I just don’t get it. Were people actually satisfied with the season he just had, because I thought he was aweful……especially when it counted. I mean geez, there’s an entire system of developing pitchers, 32 teams out there, and over 100 free agents. And we’re waiting for a guy who can’t decide if he wants to play anymore to give us his answer? Please, enough of this crap. If you’re not sure you want to come back, take a hike! This guy isn’t Santana, for cryin out loud!

      Folks………it’s not 1996 anymore. Stop hanging on. The YAnkees sould give Pettitte a pat on the back, and hearty thanks for the memories, and concentrate on building a winner, because this is getting silly.

      If Pettitte were some randon FA the Yankees brought in for a year, and he posted those numbers, NOBODY would be interested in bringing him back.

      • Nady Nation

        “Please, enough of this crap. If you’re not sure you want to come back, take a hike! ”

        Intelligent argument. I guess you suggest Moose take a hike as well

        • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

          I’d add that all indications point to Pettitte, in fact, wanting to come back to the Yankees.

          • Nady Nation

            Not to mention no one is suggesting that Andy be our ace free agent splash, but merely a 4th starter who will eat innings and give you close to a quality start every game (even with his subpar 2008 season, he had a 4.54 ERA – translating to around 6 IP, 3 ER per start, who wouldn’t take that as your 4th starter?) But hey, why let facts get in the way?

            • whozat

              Also, his xFIP was down around 3.70, suggesting that he was more unlucky and let down by poor defense than he was bad. Having a league-average defensive RFer, Cano paying attention, and a league-average defensive 1B would help. Having plus defense at more positions (CF? 1B?) would help even more.

              Pettitte on a 1 year deal putting up a 4.2 ERA? Sign me up. I wouldn’t expect Lowe to be much better, and he’d require a MUCH longer commitment.

              • Chris C.

                Pettitte may be the worst 2-out pitcher in baseball. Anyone who watched him pitch all year knows what I’m talking about.

                The guy’s problem was that the third out of the inning was like Kryptonite.

                And he clearly ran out of gas this year by about mid-August. That is NOT a good sign for someone who’s about to turn 37 years old. To be honest with you, I think his offseason conditioning program took a hit without Clemens around. And Clemens won’t be joining him in the weight room anytime soon in the future.

                These are the little things the Yankees should take a good, hard look at before throwing this guy a contract.

                • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

                  Or maybe he didn’t get to follow his conditioning program last offseason because he was dealing with the Mitchell report fallout, and maybe he was injured in the second half and that affected his performance as much or moreso than a perceived lack of endurance. And maybe he’ll go (or has gone) to Brian Cashman and say “I’m feeling healthy and I will take a reasonable one-year contract and follow my offseason conditioning plan to the letter and pitch like ‘Bionic Andy’ in 2009.” Conjecture is fun!

                • Chris C.

                  “Or maybe he didn’t get to follow his conditioning program last offseason because he was dealing with the Mitchell report fallout, and maybe he was injured in the second half and that affected his performance as much or moreso than a perceived lack of endurance.”

                  Maybe you’re right. And guess what? Neither of these issues are going away in 2009. The Mitchell fallout aint over, and neither is Pettitt’s injury history, being another year older especially.

                • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

                  I didn’t realize Mitchell report II is coming out this offseason and Pettitte will be called to Capitol Hill again. Thanks for the heads-up.

          • Chris C.

            Then that pretty much ensures a rotation spot will go to a mediocre pitcher on the extreme downside of his career. Beause Andy Pettite will not be coming back to audition for a spot.

        • Chris C.

          Moose had a top notch season. It’s actually worth their while to await Moose’s decision.
          Pettitte is no longer good enough to call his own shots.

          • Nady Nation

            And what exactly were you saying after 2007 about Mussina?

            • Chris C.

              What Mussina did this year was STUNNING!!!!
              The guy reinvented himself as a whole different pitcher.

              You shouldn’t bank on that happening.

              • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

                When Mussina pitched I sat up a little straighter on the couch. It was almost mesmerizing. It sent little starbursts through the screen and ricocheting around the living rooms of America. This is a quality that can’t be learned; it’s either something you have or you don’t, and man, he’s got it.

                (Making a joke nobody will get. My specialty.)

                • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=15305165&ref=profile Doug

                  If starbursts came out of my TV and started ricocheting around my living room it’d SCARE THE SHIT out of me.

      • radnom

        Why wouldn’t you want Andy back on a one year deal. You really think Lowe is going to be much better than him? Oh but at least you get stuck with Lowe for 3-4 years……

        • Chris C.

          I don’t want Lowe either.

          I think Pettitte is on the extreme downside of his career. He just threw to a 4.54 ERA and a WHIP slightly over 1.40, and he’s NOT going to get any better. I do not even think he’s any better than Aceves anymore, so what’s the point?

          There’s a ton of options, both in the minors and in other organizations, more appealing than Andy Pettitte.

          It’s time for the Yankees to start taking chances with their young kids, because Andy Pettitte, regardless, is certainly not going to be the difference between them overtaking Boston or Tampa Bay this season anyway. As long as Girardi is here, they are doomed, so they may as well see what the’yve got in the minors that can help them inthe future, when a REAL manager takes over things.

          I know this is not what people want to hear…….but that’s how it goes.

          • Nady Nation

            Wow, why didn’t you just post this as your first comment and your credibility would’ve been established right off the bat?

      • http://kwhitey kevin white

        I couldn’t agree more. Time to say goodbye, I would rather see them bring in 2 of Lowe, Burnette or Ollie Perez. CC seems like such a risk to me with hiss 330 lb body and overworked arm. Those 2 along with CMW and Joba will be your top 4, if Mussina wants to come back on a 1 year deal I would do it, if not Hughes/Aceves.

    • JD

      Just say NO to Lowe!

  • Z1m

    I really like the idea of a 6 man rotation next year. It will give Joba and hopefully CC some extra rest. CC has pitched so much in the last two years an extra day here and there wouldn’t be a bad idea. We all have the joba thing down by now. Of course if they sign CC.

    My rotation would be:
    CC
    Wang
    Lowe
    Joba
    Petitte
    Hughes/Aceves

    • radnom

      I thought it made a lot of sense to go with a 6 man to start this past year, but they opted to start Joba in the pen. Now that they are committed to him being a full time starter this could work out, but I cant see them considering it. I think if they have 5 others starters they would rather have Hughes start out at AAA.

  • http://mvn.com/mlb-stats/2008/10/15/world-famous-statspeak-roundtable-october-15/ dan

    I think people are underestimating Lowe. Another consistent 200 inning pitcher would have saves us from ever seeing Sidney Ponson last season. (and btw, click the link)

    • whozat

      And if he’d sign a one-year deal, great. But I really don’t want to be on the hook for three-four years with a pitcher who’s 36 and moving from the NL West to the Al East. That strikes me as a recipe for disaster. Or, at least, having a 14 million dollar long reliever starting somewhere in mid 2010.

  • Brad K

    Not sold on Lowe either. At 35 it could only be a matter of time before he really starts to break down. On the other hand he has consistently thrown around 200 innings/season so he looks like a better bet then Burnett. His overall numbers aren’t bad either but we are talking about the NL west so it’s a crap shoot no matter how you look at it. I’d pass on Lowe and sign either Pettite or Mussina if the deal is right. If we’re talking about a 3 year deal for Mussina or Lowe then I think you go for Lowe.

  • r.w.g.

    derek lowe is a good pitcher, he’s not great, but he’s okay to good. not sure about giving him anything more than 2 years, but it’s not my money.

    not sure he’s the kind of guy who would put us over the top, but he was good down the stretch in a few seasons and has pitched well in the playoffs recently and in the past.

    i’d rather the team go all in on trying to land both cc and peavy (who apparently may not want to come to the AL.. but maybe he could be extended into changing his mind) and also try and bring back moose and pettite.

    • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

      “not sure about giving him anything more than 2 years, but it’s not my money.”

      I agree that it’s not our money so I don’t pull my hair out over the Yankees giving a player a high salary, but the years should matter to you. That aspect affects the composition of your roster for the next 4 years. And actually, the money matters in that sense, too. Say Lowe, in years 3 and 4 of his contract, is not as effective a starter (due to declining performance or injury) as he was in 2008 or in 2009, assuming he has a decent season in 2009. Add to that the fact that you’re probably paying him $12-$14 million per season (am I off on that guess?). What are you going to do with him? The Yankees seem to be operating as if they have a payroll-ceiling. If you have $13 million committed to a bad starter, that will affect other roster moves you could be making during those seasons.

      • r.w.g.

        yeah i definitely agree. i’m just trying to be realistic. the yanks often get pressured/suckered into giving the extra year. Damon, Posada, A-Rod got 2 extra years.. I don’t remember if they extended Randy Johnson but I’m pretty sure they did.

        if it was up to me, i’d probably stay away from lowe and burnett and those guys and just focus on cc, or peavy, or tex. there will more over 30, mildly good free agents for years to come.

      • Chris C.

        “If you have $13 million committed to a bad starter, that will affect other roster moves you could be making during those seasons.”

        That could also effect Girardi’s ability to yank him from the rotation, even if it’s only a one year deal.

        • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

          I think it was pretty clear I was referring to roster flexibility as opposed to whether or not the manager can yank an under-performing pitcher from his rotation. I can’t speak for others but I think it’s best to make your arguments in the appropriate thread (i.e. if you want to harp on Pettitte make your comment up in the Pettitte thread instead of hijacking an unrelated conversation).

  • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

    I’m not asking Lowe to be an ace, just the same above avg workhorse he’s been the last 4 years. The going rate for a guy like that is, sadly, ~$15M per yr. I just can’t see how anyone would think AJ Burnett would be better signing.

    • r.w.g.

      I agree with you about Burnett. He’s never been healthy and his peripherals have left something to be desired for a lot of his career. he definitely has really, really good stuff with a few nasty pitches.. but his ERAs and W-L records in his career are the way for a reason.

    • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

      I’m agree Burnett is probably a bad signing, but just to respond to your question… I think Burnett is attractive to some because he’s younger and because, even though he’s not some 24 year old prospect/young MLBer, there’s a tantalizing amount of raw talent there. Just pointing out why a guy like Burnett may be attractive. I fall into the trap myself at times. He’s a very interesting case.

      Also – I think people who are stuck in the Burnett/Lowe discussion, myself included, may doubt (as I do) that Lowe will be an “above avg workhorse” for the next 4 years. The guy is old, relies relatively heavily on his defense, and has never exactly been a top-level pitcher (low K rates, spotty history in the AL East). If you think you’re getting a repeat of Lowe’s last couple of seasons, spread over the next 3-4 years, I’m all for that. I just disagree with that basic premise.

      • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

        “I’m agree.” Nice way to start your comment, jackass.

        • whozat

          That’s the kind of personal attack we don’t cotton to on here, mister! Watch it!

  • Bo

    How would Lowe be a better fit than Burnett? Burnett has had great success in the Al East and is a strikeout pitcher. Just what we need with our average defense.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      There’s just so many injury concerns with Burnett though. If they sign him, I’m expecting to see another 20 starts out of Rasner/Ponson.

    • radnom

      The whole point of signing Lowe is for some stability. That would not be the point of signing a Burnett/Sheets type. In that case you would be going for the talent potential but realizing that its a high risk. You really can’t compare the signings for that reason.

    • Chris C.

      “Burnett has had great success in the Al East and is a strikeout pitcher. Just what we need with our average defense.”

      Wow…..over the course of ONE SEASON, in a 10 year career.
      In fact, Burnett’s best two Major League seasons, in which he’s logged the most innings, just happened to occur in his walk year, and his opt-out year. How shocking! He’s one of those guys!

  • Old Ranger

    One thing to remember, having Andy for another year is very questionable…look into his pitching realistically. He has not done the job this year (14-14 ERA-4.54), Phil will give better numbers next year. Lowe is a 35+ year old pitcher, have we not learned anything…1-2 year deal, ok (I guess).

    We do have a pitcher that can out pitch Andy, his name is Pavano. Slot him in (make him wait for big contract) as the #4 starter. CMW, CC/Peavy, Joba, Pavano, Phil…both CC and Peavy would be nice. With that rotation (baring injuries), we could have a very fine rotation.
    For some reason, I feel as though CC is not coming to the NYY and we may end up with Adrian Gonzalez at 1st…just a hunch! 27/09.

    • Nady Nation

      I’m sorry Old Ranger, I respect your posts and knowledge, but is there any basis to your claim that Carl Pavano can outpitch Pettitte next year? I mean, how could you possibly say that? This is the same Carl Pavano who averaged less than 5-6 starts a year in his 4 year tenure here. Say what you want about Pettitte, who obviously did not have his best of years this season, but even with his mediocrity, he still gave us 200 innings, something he’s virtually certain to do every year and is extremely valuable. Give me Andy 10 times outta 10.

      • Reggie C.

        + 1

      • Old Ranger

        No problem…
        I watched him struggle this year, it hurts me to say this but; Andy hasn’t come to grip with the facts…
        Fastball–88-89
        Cutter–not as sharp/tilt
        3rd pitch–throws very seldom
        I would like him to come back as a Pitcher, realizing he can’t pitch the same as before…do a Moose, learn to pitch with what he has, not what he use to have. We all get older, he has gotten there.
        As for Pavano; he came back from TJ with few innings to build up his arm. Even with that, he pitched well enough to be a good #4-5 on this staff. I realize most people don’t care for him (me too) but, team comes first. 27/09.

      • Chris C.

        I’m sorry Old Ranger, I respect your posts and knowledge, but is there any basis to your claim that Carl Pavano can outpitch Pettitte next year? I mean, how could you possibly say that?

        Yeah, I wouldn’t go that far either. But if you ensured me that Pavano would be healthy for the season, which is very unlikely, then I’d place my bet that he’d outpitch Pettitte.

        • Old Ranger

          Can anyone ensure health to any pitcher?
          Guys, don’t get me wrong, I like Andy for all he has given (and gotten) for/from the Yanks. So, I want him to be the guy…but, can he? 27/09.

  • Baseballnation

    Personally I think Lowe is a better option for three years then pettitte is for one. I think Lowe is an underrated pitcher…Always has been. Pettitte’s problem is his fastball is Mussina-like at 86-88, his cutter is 84-86…But has lost much of it’s devasting cut, and I don’t think he has the overall arsenall to supplement a loss in stuff like Mussina did. Lowe on the other hand has been punching mid three era fips for the last couple of years while maintaining a GB rate over 60%. Further, if it came down to sign two pitchers I’d very much be happy if they went after Lowe over Burnett who I think is grossly overrated.

    • Reggie C.

      As long as we dont view Lowe as an ace , he’s a veteran stabilizer at the middle of the rotation. A Lowe pick-up isn’t a bad route for the Yanks to go, but he simply can’t the only pick-up. Signing CC remains the priority.

      Pettitte’s stuff weakened no doubt.

    • Chris C.

      “Personally I think Lowe is a better option for three years then pettitte is for one. I think Lowe is an underrated pitcher…Always has been.”

      No he hasn’t. If anything, he’s being overrated right now. I mean geez, the guy got bounced from the Red Sox rotation, and that was when he was in his prime. All of a sudden, he’s worth inking to the age of 40? C’mon.

      “Lowe on the other hand has been punching mid three era fips for the last couple of years”

      Yeah, in the NL. His last two years with Boston were sub-par……ERA’s over 4.50, then over 5.00. The guy’s had the luxery the past few years of pitching in Chavez Ravine! On the road this season, he was aweful.

  • Josh

    Swing & miss pitchers > contact, groundball pitchers every time. Besides, we already have a younger, better Lowe. His name is C.M. Wang. Burnett > Lowe.

    • whozat

      200 IP > 140 IP every time.

      Burnett will spend time on the DL, and he’ll spend it there with elbow or shoulder injuries. It’s happened almost every year. I just don’t understand how a guy who’s 32, hasn’t consistently harnessed his stuff, and has a long history of missing time due to injury can be attractive to fans of a team that had its season derailed by pitchers spending time on the DL and being unable to consistently harness their stuff.

      • Old Ranger

        I heard that one of the reasons AJ was injured so often, was he expended to much energy with every pitch…therefore he got hurt. If this is true, it may be one of the reasons he didn’t hit the DL this year…he learned his lesson. Meaning, he may be a good pick-up…IF, it was true 27/09..

  • yankeefan91 (sign manny)

    two starting pitchers burnett and sabathia and if we cant get one of those then trade for peavy we need pitching thats how were gonna win

  • Jake K.

    The counterpoint to the pitching depth argument is that bringing in more guys (even if only for a year or two) for a set number of spots means that guys like Hughes and Kennedy are likely the odd men out. While I understand not wanting to hand them rotation spots, that means another year of them not figuring out how to succeed at the major league level and not extending their innings limits. At some point, you have to see what you got in the kids.

    • r.w.g.

      both guys didn’t win a game last year and had ERAs around 9. they have to start next year at AAA. they need to pitch their way on to the team. could ian kennedy even beat out al aceves for a roster spot right now?

      they definitely should avoid bringing in expensive, average, free agents.. but if kennedy or hughes spent some extra seasons at scranton or were shipped out because the team went after CC or Peavy, that’s a prudent move.

    • Reggie C.

      CC
      Wang
      if Moose, no Lowe; if no Moose, Lowe
      Joba
      Hughes

      I agree with your odd-man out theory. Hughes must stay healthy in the majors while taking his bumps. As much as i rail on him, I do want to see him succeed, simply b/c if he doesn’t then all pro scouts would’ve been wrong. The only way Hughes isn’t in rotation is if the brass traded him for Jake Peavy. Not Greinke. Not Cain.

      • whozat

        Why are we trading for pitching when that’s all the farm system is producing? If young talent is going to be spent, spend it on position players.

        • Reggie C.

          Its a viable thought. Its unlikely though. But if there’s a shot of adding 2 under 30 former Cy young winners … you do it.

          • whozat

            If you have a pitching-starved system, perhaps. The Yankees aren’t producing quality position players. They will be doomed to fielding an over-the-hill lineup unless they address that. They have ONE potential above-average MLB position player that’s played above A ball. If you’re going to spend your valuable chips, you have to address that weakness.

            • Reggie C.

              Okay . I agree with that. The departures of Abreu, Matsui, and Damon in the near future do not bode well for this ballclub b/c the FA market is unpredictable and there’s no real inhouse solution.

              But there is simply nothing the Yanks can do about it now. The best FAs and players available via trade are pitchers. Adrian Gonzalez is likely the best position player available, but he’s only a target if we dont sign Tex. So either way, its only 1 positional upgrade the Yanks will endeavor to fill. We’ll just go FA shopping next season and pick up an OF.

  • Baseballnation

    Because top pitching is harder to get in trades and inevitably will cost more than top position players in most cases. Plus if we do get Tex they’re will be no need to make a trade unless Sabathia falls through and they have to make a call to San Diego for a guy name Peavey.

    • whozat

      ???

      Top position players have been getting more than 20 mil per year since the turn of the century. Santana was the first to get that much. Or, one of the first, maybe. Certainly on a long-term deal. There were three players in the Yankee infield alone making over 20 million a year.

    • Old Ranger

      Disagree…
      We could use a heavy hitting OF’er that is young (under30), athletic and has the ability to play good defence…along with Tex/Gonzalez. Whozat is right (I think), we have many pitchers and very few reg. players, picking up one FA pitcher should do the job. 27/09.

      • Reggie C.

        We have no idea if Abreu is back. If he’s not back, then yeah .. the need for an OF is obvious. If he’s back for a year cause he loves the ‘stripes, then its a question we address after ’09. Damon is likely gone too at that pt., so it becomes THE offseason priority.

        1B hopefully is manned by either Tex or A-gonz.

        CF options: Dejesus? Delmon Young? (move to abreu’s spot once a-jax arrives)

  • kgSturnz0r17

    for another year and a few more million annually, why not get AJ, led the league in Ks… in the AL East. I know Lowe doesn’t get hurt and AJ has in the past. Carla is out, so we could afford some risk, no?

  • dave

    Everyone is talking about Peavy. I’m under the impression that he is not a free agent, therefore who are we giving up to get him? Many of you are acting as if Peavy is a done deal if we want. The asking price for him will be equal to or higher than Santana’s.

    Cano and Hughes? I doubt any of you would do that, but that is what they’ll ask for.

    I would take CC and Lowe if possible. Lowe will give you 200 innings and has proven he can pitch adequately in the AL East. His numbers this postseason are also pretty good. I would sign him for 3 years if he’d do it.

  • http://kwhitey kevin white

    What would we have to give up for Adrian Gonzalez? He would be a great fit.

  • Steve

    Good news from MLBTR

    “Derek Lowe’s teammates say he has little interest in playing for the Mets or Yankees.”

    Sounds good to me.