CC and the innings load

Open Thread: The early odds
Hank talks — too much — about Manny

SG at the Replacement Level Yankee Weblog took at a look at pitchers with inning loads similar to that of CC Sabathia and found that perhaps we shouldn’t be so keen to embrace Sabathia. While he has yet to run the numbers specifically on Sabathia, history does not favor pitchers who have thrown as many inning as he has by age 28.

Open Thread: The early odds
Hank talks — too much — about Manny
  • Steve

    The fine folks at THT disagree with that, and have the numbers to back it up.

    Plus, he didn’t show any wear stuff wise until the Brewers pitched him on 3 days rest for the THIRD time in a row in the playoffs. Most guys show wear the next time out. The guy’s a horse.

    • RobC

      I grew up watching another big lefty, Carlton, pitch in 3 days rest all season long while the other pitchers had 4 days

      • Steve

        Yeah, comparing a 6’7″ big bodied lefty to average sized pitchers is comparing apples and oranges. Plus there are no mechanical red flags associated with CC that I’m aware of.

        Again, the results speak for themselves. Even if he was to show some wear the following year, the Yanks would be looking at him over the long haul as a 6-7 year investment and won’t be overworking him the way the Indians/Brewers did.

    • SDYankee

      The Hardball times article seems to look at drop in performance over the season…and you could extract 2007 vs 2008. SG at Replacement Level Yankees is trying to focrecast the impact of CC’s cummulative innings over his career and how that will impact his performance in 2009 through 2015.

  • RobC

    Those stats do call for for caution however I wonder how they would look if they only included the pitchers similar to CC in win/loss, ERA, K/BB or # pitches per inning.
    Also pitching in the NL has to be less of a strain than the AL. Since the pitcher bats thats 1/9 and even with an occasional pinch hitter still 10% of NL hitters CC can get out in his sleep.
    Long and short, three certainties in life, death, taxes and pitchers get hurt.
    Yanks should take the risk.

  • nick blasioli

    the pressure is on the yankees to sign cc and tex…without them, it will be a long hot summer…

    • Jamal G.

      Yes, because they were such a long shot heading into 2008 with their projected 25-man roster intact.

  • ohbwonhomie

    I agree with steve the yanks wont rape him the way the indians/brews did. go sign him not concern with his innings buildup he’s a beast. hey am I’m the only guy here thinking we should trade damon, he has value and he’ll help relieve the logjammed of. I really think gardner should have a shot. if we dont get tex yanks should trade for d-lee or blalock. posadas’ going to need some time out at first as well. plus we could shift jete into leadoff spot.

    • christopher

      if they could get D Lee for a decne tpackage – i would refer him to Tex. D Lee has shown he is capable of an MVP type year

      • Ben K.

        You do realize that Mark Teixeira has been significantly better than Derrek Lee throughout his career and is five years younger?

        • steve (different one)

          also, it doesn’t really make sense to suggest trading for a player without saying who goes the other way.

          Lee is on a very reasonable contract. why would the Cubs be looking to move him? do they have another 1B prospect knocking on the door? i don’t think they do. are they trying to cut payroll? it doesn’t seem like they are. are they not planning to compete in 2009? doubtful.

          i’m not saying Lee can’t be had, but why would the Cubs part with him for anything less than Hughes?

          i’d love to be proven wrong. Lee would be nice if Tex goes elsewhere. i just don’t see where this is coming from.

  • Ricochet

    Innings don’t hurt one’s arm in fact the more one throws the stronger the arm get’s like lifting weights so it’s not about throwing more than others it’s about mechanics. What happens when most throw that many innings is that they fatigue and the arm slot changes and the mechanic’s of it all get out of whack and puts stress on the ligaments and bone and that’s what causes the problem and why some go down with injury.

    CC’s mechanic’s are impeccable and even at the of the season when he was pitching all the time his arm was fine even when he was tired and when he hit the wall in the playoffs it was that he was just out of gas and why the stuff might not have been there his mechanic’s never changed even when he had nothing.

    CC is a special for that alone but he’s a special talent and the Yankees would be nuts not to go after him.

  • Nick

    Pitching is a high attrition, high injury job. I would think if you ran similar scenarios with any of the free-agent pitchers, none would look good.

    Innings don’t necessarily hurt one’s arm, but they can. While I don’t agree with the lifting weights analogy, you can extend it and say that when you lift too much when not fully rested you get hurt.

    I don’t buy crediting CC with great mechanics…while I don’t see major flaws, I’m no expert, and neither are most people. I’m always reminded about how Mark Prior’s mechanics were touted as perfect.

    But, bottom line, yanks need pitching, and CC is the best bet out there…they need to sign him.

  • Adam B.

    I would’ve liked to seen how the attrition rate of that group of players compares to the overall group of pitchers in that age group. I think that’d have been more informative. We know there’s a high attrition rate with pitching, like Nick says

  • Steve S

    Wow Steve is really going out on a limb by saying a 300 lb pitcher who has logged a lot of innings may not make it through age 33 and his performance will decline. I thought the idea is that you pay a guy like CC to be dominant the first two years, to be consistent for the middle two year and still dominant and then the last two years is up in the air.

  • christopher

    the one thing that you have to say about manny is that he is absolutly clutch in the post-season. in fact, if i had to bet my life on any hitter to get a hit to save my life it would be him

    • steve (different one)

      not saying he hasn’t been great in the postseason, he has.

      but he has been WORSE overall in the postseason than he has in the regular season over his career.

      he gets a lot of big hits in the postseason b/c he’s a great hitter, not because of any special clutch-ness.

      overall, he’s been slightly worse in the postseason. but for Manny, that’s still awesome.

      he’s had good series and bad series, but the difference is that he’s had a TON of opportunities. he’s played in over 100 postseason games. as a result, his numbers tend to approach his career averages.

  • ohbwonhomie

    Only mentioned the d-lee viability due to discussions w/in cubbie uppermngt several wks ago that they would like to join the manny tou, if so they would need to move some payroll and sori is almost impossible to move. so if yanks cant get tex(which i would prefer) they maybe they can make an attempt for someone like d-lee, only a comment. the article i read was repoted on mlbtr probably two weeks ago not just making things up.