Early winter projections

A matter of scouting
Sublett returns from two week layoff

Replacement Level Yankee Weblog ran an early version of their CAIRO system to project the 2009 Yankees. The results are rather uninspiring, to say the least. Of course, the Yanks stand to pick up some players via free agency and lose some that they won’t miss. The 2009 Yankees though are going to need some offensive help and some pitching stars as well.

A matter of scouting
Sublett returns from two week layoff
  • http://www.new.facebook.com/home.php?ref=home#/profile.php?id=594331910&ref=name Jamal G.

    Yeah, I saw this yesterday. I think SG has to rework a few things, it seems some of the MLE calculations for the pitchers are a bit screwed.

    • Rafi

      What, you mean 20 year old pitchers aren’t supposed to come up and pitch to a league average ERA for 150 innings?

  • 27 this year

    On that website, they have Dan Mucchen or however you spell it, the guy who was traded to the Pirates on our team.

    • http://footballstu.blogs.sportsline.com/ Stu H

      As he says at the end, he still has to move people to the right teams.

      Regarding the stats, these are raw major league equivalencies. Unfortunately, as we all know, there’s very little you can do to predict how a player will respond to a major league environment. Does their stuff play up or play down? Do the fly balls they had been giving up start turning into home runs? Do they handle the pressure?

      If there were a reliable formula, you wouldn’t have players that flop or surprise when they get to the majors. One doesn’t exist. You make adjustments for league factors, and all of those other items you find out when the player gets the call and gets sufficient playing time.

  • Reggie C.

    It says v0.1. Does that mean these numbers get adjusted during the offseason? These numbers are so laughable that i’m not gonna even bother with v0.2.

    • steve (different one)

      great attitude.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Ben K.

      You don’t really understand what v0.1 means, do you?

  • http://WWW.mvn.com/mlb-yankees Moshe Mandel

    My problem is, these formulas undervalue Wang every single season, probably because he is an outlier in terms of preventing runs with very few strikeouts. Furthermore, they usually stay on the safe side of things, rarely predicting much more than career averages for anybody. My point being, while this may be an effective tool to look at when predicting how the team as a whole will do (as the outliers to each side of the spectrum tend to even out, so that staying near career averages can give a solid picture of a club’s overall talent level), it is usually a poor tool to use to gauge an individual player’s possible performance.

  • Januz

    I could not believe the projections that this blog came up with. You talk about someone who has too much time on their hands, this takes the cake. To make matters worse, this list, is inaccurate (Daniel McCutcheon was TRADED to Pittsburgh, and Bobby Abreu is a free agent, as are Petitte and Mussina. Meanwhile, MARTE, who was not listed on the roster, is still with the Yankees (They have not formally announced if they are picking up his option)).
    I have no idea if the person who runs this blog is into any other sport (Yesterday, was the BEST day of the college football season, and that and the NFL should be the sports focus (At least, until the free agent signing period starts). This person needs to focus in on football (You just might like it?).

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Ben K.

      This might possibly be the dumbest comment we’ve ever gotten.

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

        You can’t make lemonade with lemons?

    • steve (different one)

      the McCutchen thing is wrong, as he acknowledges.

      but what is your point about Abreu, Pettitte, and Moose?

      why should he project them? what a silly thing to complain about.

      if they officially retire or sign with another team, he’ll update the projection.

      SG is one of the best Yankee bloggers around. he provides Yankee fans with TONS of information, usually great stuff.

      he will update these projections a few times throughout the offseason as the roster shapes up. he will work the bugs out of his model. he’ll answer whatever questions you have, and listen to ideas for improvement, and he’s usually pretty cool about everything.

      why don’t you try doing that instead of just spewing insults?

      • steve (different one)

        “why shouldn’t he project them”?

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones

        why don’t you try doing that instead of just spewing insults?

        Hey, at least he’s not spewing his tired “The financial crisis will prevent us from singing free agents” line in this one, that’s an improvement.

    • Mike Pop

      Lol he is a yankee blogger but he should focus on football in his blog ?????

    • brockdc

      Wow. I’m speechless.

    • Andy In Sunny Daytona

      You forgot to close one of your parenthesis’.

  • Andy In Sunny Daytona

    Brett Gardner projects to only strike out 50 times in over 600 PA’s? Does he get to use a cricket bat?

    • steve (different one)

      yeah, that looks off. based on his minor league numbers, that seems way low.

  • MikeD

    Not a fan of these type of projections, although I guess it goes something to talk about once the baseball season is over. No player ever takes a major step forward in these projections. It has no capability to project break-out seasons, of major collapses. In the end, that’s what determines a team’s season. These projections probably “predicted” Jeter’s partial decline in ’08, but underestimated his statistics in ’06 & ’07. Ditto for A-Rod in ’07.

  • http://www.replacementlevel.com SG

    Can I just say college football sucks?

  • RustyJohn

    I must admit to not being up to speed on “numbers’ (to quote Beavis & Butthead, there’s too many of them) but does CAIRO refer to 1/2 the roster hitting like Miguel Cairo?