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	<title>Comments on: Counting our chickens well before they hatch</title>
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		<title>By: Bart</title>
		<link>http://riveraveblues.com/2008/12/counting-our-chickens-well-before-they-hatch-6298/#comment-229867</link>
		<dc:creator>Bart</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 14 Dec 2008 14:41:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riveraveblues.com/?p=6298#comment-229867</guid>
		<description>I am a Yankee fan for 58 years. I watched the Mantle Berra, Howard, Kubek team go from WS to awful - nothing worked until Munson, Catfish, Jackson, Nettles - from the WS loss to the Reds to the WS loss to the Dodgers in 82 that was a good run -- then doldrums again until the strike year and Mattingly. We are entering the 2009 season remembering the run that began that year under Showalter and the team that carried Joe Torre to managerial stardom. The Run ended in 2001 with the loss to the DBacks - not enough hitting, pretty solid pitching - thereafter never quite enough to get to the WS except for the Marlins -- a less than potent or timely offense, less than stellar picthing by Wells, Pettit, Clemens, and a cast of hundreds. Evenn during the 4 championshios it took magic - the HRagainst the Braves, Jeffrey Maier, the backhand toss. Itis very hard to have the right pieces and have them perform at the right moment. The Yankess pieces are aging simultaneously.

Williams aged, Brosius, O&#039;Neil, Tino burned bright, aged and quit.  Clemens and Pettit left the wera on them and the cost suspect - until panic reigned to bring them back. Johnson, Cone, Wells, Brown were used up.  See the Packers, Bears, Braves, Celtics, Lakers as examoles in ther sports where teams aged simultaneously and the young parts and spare parts were not numerous enough to maintain the edge.

The Yankees on offense and defense are less capable posiiton to position than they were in that awful 4 game choke to the &quot;Bloody Sock&quot;.  Torre&#039;s management failures notwithstanding they still lost.

Statistically comparing this 2009 on paper to any past year is less than helpful - as an inury, a sub par year, a stellar year by a  Yankee and by the opposition can have season altering impact. part of the excitement of the game -- but having a team that renews itself is critical to sustained excellence. Effectively enewing 6 posiitons at one time is improbably. The Yankees did this once over a span of 4 years - with Williams, Mo, Pettit, Jeter, Posada when he finaly replaced Giradi - only 3 were posiiton players. There is no such set at posiiton in the minors

I fully expect Matsui, Posada, Cano, Gardner to be better than last year. And wihtout an injury to a Wang, Sbbathia, or Burnett the team will be much better. And if they get a full productive season out of Sabbathia, Burnett, Wang, and Joba the short series rotation appears to be dominant.

None of that hope or expectaion solves the aging problem.  I argued last year that getting Santana (I still believe at the price of IPK, Melky, plus 2) was critical to getting the most out of the aging Offense while it was still potent, AND TO PROTECT Hughes from being pushed/too much expectation.

We lost a year we might have lost anyway; saved the kids, kept a lid on payroll. But if that is meaningful it must be because it bolstered the long range plan for continuous solid attempts at WS championships. Sabbbathia and Burnett are pieces - the stocked Minor League pitching is  a piece. Replacing the posiiton players is a necessity.  It likley can&#039;t be done at one time. The failure to take Beltran and mange the cots latter led to Johnny Damon - i actualy love him as a Ynakee - I even liked him as a Red Sox. Beltran was a solution and the superior player. Johnny was a stopgap made necessary by the Williams age-Beltran failure.  Maybe Cashman has a blind spot. He had to be pushed to make the offer for ARod.

Replacing Jeter, Posada, Nady, Matsui, Damon are near term (2009-2011)requirements -- Jeter may be one more FB on the hand to being seriously hurt if not rendered as ineffective as he was for long stretches last year. Posada and Matsui we know the story.  The game can&#039;t be played without knees and shoulders. 2009 could be a miracle year - if those two seem to reaquire youth, folks wil flock to the ne stadium just to drink the water.

Replacing the position players should not be left to be done at one time.  Just as Beltran would have fixed CF for 8 years or more (he was a free agent), Texieria will fix 1B for 8 years or more. He won&#039;t be available next year -- 
who wil be the Damon panic solution after a year fo Bubba like production at 1B.

The everyday player youth movment must begin in 2009 with one position a year filled - C, 1B, SS, CF, RF, LF - the guys in the Yankees minor leagues do not fit this pattern. 

Cano is one of those guys you need to trade.  He is by baseball standards too old to learn the strike zone and to &quot;have patience&quot; - it is in your narture, your confidence to be able to be patient - trying to BE patient makes you slow and then twitchy -- try it yourself even with a golf ball
- to keep him the Yankes have to be satisfied with a sub.400 OBP and potential .300 plus BA -- the only value in those numbers alone is if the hits are more prodcutive.
He has had at fairly brilliant at bats climbing out of 0-2 counts - unquestionable talent dazzles - it is not always productive.  Still he is above average 2B - so a trade has to bring above average something to fill a need
- such a trade might be best for a Catcher - this is the hardest offense defense productive position to field. I don&#039;t think you have to St Joe to work around an average 2B.

Can the Yankees wait for Posada to fail or to be hurt again?

That &quot;trade&quot; makes better sense if you first fill 1B with Tex.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I am a Yankee fan for 58 years. I watched the Mantle Berra, Howard, Kubek team go from WS to awful &#8211; nothing worked until Munson, Catfish, Jackson, Nettles &#8211; from the WS loss to the Reds to the WS loss to the Dodgers in 82 that was a good run &#8212; then doldrums again until the strike year and Mattingly. We are entering the 2009 season remembering the run that began that year under Showalter and the team that carried Joe Torre to managerial stardom. The Run ended in 2001 with the loss to the DBacks &#8211; not enough hitting, pretty solid pitching &#8211; thereafter never quite enough to get to the WS except for the Marlins &#8212; a less than potent or timely offense, less than stellar picthing by Wells, Pettit, Clemens, and a cast of hundreds. Evenn during the 4 championshios it took magic &#8211; the HRagainst the Braves, Jeffrey Maier, the backhand toss. Itis very hard to have the right pieces and have them perform at the right moment. The Yankess pieces are aging simultaneously.</p>
<p>Williams aged, Brosius, O&#8217;Neil, Tino burned bright, aged and quit.  Clemens and Pettit left the wera on them and the cost suspect &#8211; until panic reigned to bring them back. Johnson, Cone, Wells, Brown were used up.  See the Packers, Bears, Braves, Celtics, Lakers as examoles in ther sports where teams aged simultaneously and the young parts and spare parts were not numerous enough to maintain the edge.</p>
<p>The Yankees on offense and defense are less capable posiiton to position than they were in that awful 4 game choke to the &#8220;Bloody Sock&#8221;.  Torre&#8217;s management failures notwithstanding they still lost.</p>
<p>Statistically comparing this 2009 on paper to any past year is less than helpful &#8211; as an inury, a sub par year, a stellar year by a  Yankee and by the opposition can have season altering impact. part of the excitement of the game &#8212; but having a team that renews itself is critical to sustained excellence. Effectively enewing 6 posiitons at one time is improbably. The Yankees did this once over a span of 4 years &#8211; with Williams, Mo, Pettit, Jeter, Posada when he finaly replaced Giradi &#8211; only 3 were posiiton players. There is no such set at posiiton in the minors</p>
<p>I fully expect Matsui, Posada, Cano, Gardner to be better than last year. And wihtout an injury to a Wang, Sbbathia, or Burnett the team will be much better. And if they get a full productive season out of Sabbathia, Burnett, Wang, and Joba the short series rotation appears to be dominant.</p>
<p>None of that hope or expectaion solves the aging problem.  I argued last year that getting Santana (I still believe at the price of IPK, Melky, plus 2) was critical to getting the most out of the aging Offense while it was still potent, AND TO PROTECT Hughes from being pushed/too much expectation.</p>
<p>We lost a year we might have lost anyway; saved the kids, kept a lid on payroll. But if that is meaningful it must be because it bolstered the long range plan for continuous solid attempts at WS championships. Sabbbathia and Burnett are pieces &#8211; the stocked Minor League pitching is  a piece. Replacing the posiiton players is a necessity.  It likley can&#8217;t be done at one time. The failure to take Beltran and mange the cots latter led to Johnny Damon &#8211; i actualy love him as a Ynakee &#8211; I even liked him as a Red Sox. Beltran was a solution and the superior player. Johnny was a stopgap made necessary by the Williams age-Beltran failure.  Maybe Cashman has a blind spot. He had to be pushed to make the offer for ARod.</p>
<p>Replacing Jeter, Posada, Nady, Matsui, Damon are near term (2009-2011)requirements &#8212; Jeter may be one more FB on the hand to being seriously hurt if not rendered as ineffective as he was for long stretches last year. Posada and Matsui we know the story.  The game can&#8217;t be played without knees and shoulders. 2009 could be a miracle year &#8211; if those two seem to reaquire youth, folks wil flock to the ne stadium just to drink the water.</p>
<p>Replacing the position players should not be left to be done at one time.  Just as Beltran would have fixed CF for 8 years or more (he was a free agent), Texieria will fix 1B for 8 years or more. He won&#8217;t be available next year &#8212;<br />
who wil be the Damon panic solution after a year fo Bubba like production at 1B.</p>
<p>The everyday player youth movment must begin in 2009 with one position a year filled &#8211; C, 1B, SS, CF, RF, LF &#8211; the guys in the Yankees minor leagues do not fit this pattern. </p>
<p>Cano is one of those guys you need to trade.  He is by baseball standards too old to learn the strike zone and to &#8220;have patience&#8221; &#8211; it is in your narture, your confidence to be able to be patient &#8211; trying to BE patient makes you slow and then twitchy &#8212; try it yourself even with a golf ball<br />
- to keep him the Yankes have to be satisfied with a sub.400 OBP and potential .300 plus BA &#8212; the only value in those numbers alone is if the hits are more prodcutive.<br />
He has had at fairly brilliant at bats climbing out of 0-2 counts &#8211; unquestionable talent dazzles &#8211; it is not always productive.  Still he is above average 2B &#8211; so a trade has to bring above average something to fill a need<br />
- such a trade might be best for a Catcher &#8211; this is the hardest offense defense productive position to field. I don&#8217;t think you have to St Joe to work around an average 2B.</p>
<p>Can the Yankees wait for Posada to fail or to be hurt again?</p>
<p>That &#8220;trade&#8221; makes better sense if you first fill 1B with Tex.</p>
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		<title>By: MikeD</title>
		<link>http://riveraveblues.com/2008/12/counting-our-chickens-well-before-they-hatch-6298/#comment-229486</link>
		<dc:creator>MikeD</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 14 Dec 2008 00:25:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riveraveblues.com/?p=6298#comment-229486</guid>
		<description>It&#039;s all about run differential.  The addition of CC and AJ, and a full year of Wang and Joba, will help there.   Defense is still an issue, and I think the Yankees recognize that. They are developing a pitching staff that misses bats.  Pettitte suffered last year with that defense.  He has the worse batting average with balls in play than any pitcher in MLB. I wonder how good Wang would be on a team that actually catch a ball. 

If the Yankees sign Texiera, it would solve two problems. Not only does our defense at 1B go up, but that would allow Swisher to go to rightfield, where he&#039;s quite good. It&#039;s his strongest position.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s all about run differential.  The addition of CC and AJ, and a full year of Wang and Joba, will help there.   Defense is still an issue, and I think the Yankees recognize that. They are developing a pitching staff that misses bats.  Pettitte suffered last year with that defense.  He has the worse batting average with balls in play than any pitcher in MLB. I wonder how good Wang would be on a team that actually catch a ball. </p>
<p>If the Yankees sign Texiera, it would solve two problems. Not only does our defense at 1B go up, but that would allow Swisher to go to rightfield, where he&#8217;s quite good. It&#8217;s his strongest position.</p>
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		<title>By: MikeD</title>
		<link>http://riveraveblues.com/2008/12/counting-our-chickens-well-before-they-hatch-6298/#comment-229473</link>
		<dc:creator>MikeD</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 14 Dec 2008 00:01:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riveraveblues.com/?p=6298#comment-229473</guid>
		<description>Steve, sorry I transitioned off the topic of why Tampa&#039;s bullpen wasn&#039;t likely to repeat and why I thought the Yankees pen will bet better.  I think that&#039;s true, but the one thing I will say about Tampa is what another one of the posters noted.  The improvement in Tampa&#039;s pen had as much to do with the quality of the starters. The relievers in &#039;08 were no longer burned out.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Steve, sorry I transitioned off the topic of why Tampa&#8217;s bullpen wasn&#8217;t likely to repeat and why I thought the Yankees pen will bet better.  I think that&#8217;s true, but the one thing I will say about Tampa is what another one of the posters noted.  The improvement in Tampa&#8217;s pen had as much to do with the quality of the starters. The relievers in &#8217;08 were no longer burned out.</p>
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		<title>By: MikeD</title>
		<link>http://riveraveblues.com/2008/12/counting-our-chickens-well-before-they-hatch-6298/#comment-229472</link>
		<dc:creator>MikeD</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 Dec 2008 23:58:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riveraveblues.com/?p=6298#comment-229472</guid>
		<description>Steve H, can’t disagree with you since it’s not outlandish to predict regression for any team that had a good pen from year to year. 

That said, what the Yankees did differently in ’08 had less to do with the names of the relievers as it did with how they were used and how the pen was constructed.  The Yankees brought in more arms, and then extended their MLB bullpen down to AAA providing a greater depth and variety.  The ones who performed stayed, the ones who didn’t were jettisoned.  

Girardi, unlike Torre, also showed no preference toward any one set-up man to get to Mariano.  This eliminated arm burn out.  I expect them to continue this trend in ’09, and they should have an even greater selection of quality arms to put in the pen, including a couple who came up later in the year who have great promise to help over the course of a full year -- Dave Robertson and Phil Coke.  

There’s also Melancon, Aceves, Dunn, Claggett, Jackson and health permitting guys like Sanchez and Cox.  There’s also the return of Albaladejo, who wasn’t around long enough before he was injured.  There’s others, too.  It doesn’t matter if Bruney falters, or Ramirez, etc.  The Yankees will go to the best arms.  That’s a very different approach from the Torre days, who would had no intention of allowing a Veres or a Ramirez to pitch in important situations.   

The jury is still out on Girardi overall, but the one area he gets a total A+ from me is on the bullpen.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Steve H, can’t disagree with you since it’s not outlandish to predict regression for any team that had a good pen from year to year. </p>
<p>That said, what the Yankees did differently in ’08 had less to do with the names of the relievers as it did with how they were used and how the pen was constructed.  The Yankees brought in more arms, and then extended their MLB bullpen down to AAA providing a greater depth and variety.  The ones who performed stayed, the ones who didn’t were jettisoned.  </p>
<p>Girardi, unlike Torre, also showed no preference toward any one set-up man to get to Mariano.  This eliminated arm burn out.  I expect them to continue this trend in ’09, and they should have an even greater selection of quality arms to put in the pen, including a couple who came up later in the year who have great promise to help over the course of a full year &#8212; Dave Robertson and Phil Coke.  </p>
<p>There’s also Melancon, Aceves, Dunn, Claggett, Jackson and health permitting guys like Sanchez and Cox.  There’s also the return of Albaladejo, who wasn’t around long enough before he was injured.  There’s others, too.  It doesn’t matter if Bruney falters, or Ramirez, etc.  The Yankees will go to the best arms.  That’s a very different approach from the Torre days, who would had no intention of allowing a Veres or a Ramirez to pitch in important situations.   </p>
<p>The jury is still out on Girardi overall, but the one area he gets a total A+ from me is on the bullpen.</p>
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		<title>By: redsoxsuk1</title>
		<link>http://riveraveblues.com/2008/12/counting-our-chickens-well-before-they-hatch-6298/#comment-229347</link>
		<dc:creator>redsoxsuk1</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 Dec 2008 21:08:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riveraveblues.com/?p=6298#comment-229347</guid>
		<description>I thought our offense WAY underproduced last year and we just lost TONS of run production this off-season.  I get we needed pitching, but what about scoring runs??  This defense is not the type that will allow us to win many 2-1 games so we better &quot;step up to the plate&quot; and fix it.  Tex is almost a must!!  If we don&#039;t get him and allow the stinkies to get him we will be very sorry.  Ths sox are also way down offensively and I do NOT want to see 30 HRs and 120+ RBIs go to that team for the next 8 years.  So what if the &quot;greatest team in the history of sport&quot; looks like a gluton??  It&#039;s all about winning, within the rules, and also about keeping the stinky sox down.  

Go yankees!!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I thought our offense WAY underproduced last year and we just lost TONS of run production this off-season.  I get we needed pitching, but what about scoring runs??  This defense is not the type that will allow us to win many 2-1 games so we better &#8220;step up to the plate&#8221; and fix it.  Tex is almost a must!!  If we don&#8217;t get him and allow the stinkies to get him we will be very sorry.  Ths sox are also way down offensively and I do NOT want to see 30 HRs and 120+ RBIs go to that team for the next 8 years.  So what if the &#8220;greatest team in the history of sport&#8221; looks like a gluton??  It&#8217;s all about winning, within the rules, and also about keeping the stinky sox down.  </p>
<p>Go yankees!!</p>
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		<title>By: David</title>
		<link>http://riveraveblues.com/2008/12/counting-our-chickens-well-before-they-hatch-6298/#comment-229307</link>
		<dc:creator>David</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 Dec 2008 20:25:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riveraveblues.com/?p=6298#comment-229307</guid>
		<description>I&#039;d go three years on Manny.  Put him behind A-Rod and we&#039;ll have a feared lineup.  Right now, we are in danger of being like Toronto was last year.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;d go three years on Manny.  Put him behind A-Rod and we&#8217;ll have a feared lineup.  Right now, we are in danger of being like Toronto was last year.</p>
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		<title>By: AndrewYF</title>
		<link>http://riveraveblues.com/2008/12/counting-our-chickens-well-before-they-hatch-6298/#comment-229297</link>
		<dc:creator>AndrewYF</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 Dec 2008 20:17:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riveraveblues.com/?p=6298#comment-229297</guid>
		<description>The Rays won the AL East, and their entire lineup averaged out to be below-average.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Rays won the AL East, and their entire lineup averaged out to be below-average.</p>
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		<title>By: Jamal G.</title>
		<link>http://riveraveblues.com/2008/12/counting-our-chickens-well-before-they-hatch-6298/#comment-229293</link>
		<dc:creator>Jamal G.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 Dec 2008 20:15:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riveraveblues.com/?p=6298#comment-229293</guid>
		<description>1. When it comes to your AFC analogy, the Colts say hi.

2. The Dallas Cowboys are only bested by the Giants, Panthers and Buccaneers in the NFC. The Falcons and all the ensuing teams you mentioned are not better than the Cowboys.

3. Let&#039;s see how the Mets&#039; offense fairs when Carlos Delgado doesn&#039;t show up until Independence Day, their left-field situation is a platoon of David Murphy and Fernando Tatis, and Ryan Church in right field who hit a paltry .219/.305/.307 in the second half after suffering a serious, mishandled concussion.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>1. When it comes to your AFC analogy, the Colts say hi.</p>
<p>2. The Dallas Cowboys are only bested by the Giants, Panthers and Buccaneers in the NFC. The Falcons and all the ensuing teams you mentioned are not better than the Cowboys.</p>
<p>3. Let&#8217;s see how the Mets&#8217; offense fairs when Carlos Delgado doesn&#8217;t show up until Independence Day, their left-field situation is a platoon of David Murphy and Fernando Tatis, and Ryan Church in right field who hit a paltry .219/.305/.307 in the second half after suffering a serious, mishandled concussion.</p>
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		<title>By: mustang</title>
		<link>http://riveraveblues.com/2008/12/counting-our-chickens-well-before-they-hatch-6298/#comment-229286</link>
		<dc:creator>mustang</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 Dec 2008 20:10:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riveraveblues.com/?p=6298#comment-229286</guid>
		<description>I REALLY don&#039;t want him, but I can&#039;t be blind to what he might mean behind A-Rod. Unfortunately it looks like the price might come down low enough where I could deal with the stupid ass clown act.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I REALLY don&#8217;t want him, but I can&#8217;t be blind to what he might mean behind A-Rod. Unfortunately it looks like the price might come down low enough where I could deal with the stupid ass clown act.</p>
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		<title>By: Ryan S. (aka Armchair Cashman)</title>
		<link>http://riveraveblues.com/2008/12/counting-our-chickens-well-before-they-hatch-6298/#comment-229282</link>
		<dc:creator>Ryan S. (aka Armchair Cashman)</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 Dec 2008 20:09:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://riveraveblues.com/?p=6298#comment-229282</guid>
		<description>Another plus for the defense is that with all the power arms we have, we won&#039;t need to rely on it as much in the first place.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Another plus for the defense is that with all the power arms we have, we won&#8217;t need to rely on it as much in the first place.</p>
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