Dec
30

Open Thread: Tex vs Giambi

By

Earlier today I posted a breakdown of how much value the 2008 Yanks’ offense provided, and shortly after that I received an email from reader Diony, basically asking how much of an upgrade Mark Teixeira is over Giambi. Using the same Fangraphs data I used in the post earlier today, let’s take a look.

Mark Teixeira
Batting
: +45.7 / +35.0
Fielding: +11.7 / +2.1
Replacement: +22.8 / +22.1
Positional: -12.2 / -11.7
Value Runs: +68.0 / +47.6
Value Wins: 6.8 / +4.8
Value: $30.5M / $19.6M

Jason Giambi
Batting
: +21.5 / +19.9
Fielding: -1.8 / -2.6
Replacement: +18.8 / +16.1
Positional: -12.0 / -11.1
Value Runs: +26.5 / +22.2
Value Wins: +2.7 / +2.2
Value: $11.9 / $8.8M

The first number is the player’s 2008 stats, the second number (after the slash) are their average over the last three years. The most cited difference between the two players is defense. Last year there was a 13.5 run difference between the two, nearly one and a half wins. Over the last three years that difference is just 4.7 runs, but remember that Giambi is going to 38 in a week while Tex is still in his prime. It’s not unreasonable to expect Tex to maintain that 13.5 run difference. For arguments’ sake, let’s round it down to 10 runs, or one win.

Offensively, the difference between the two is Tex’s ability to hit for average, which also gives him an advantage in slugging percentage. As you can see, Tex has been more than 15 runs better than Giambi over the last three years, and nearly 25 runs better last year. If you want to split the middle and say Tex is expected to be 20 runs more productive than Giambi next year, I think that’s fair.

So add it up: 10 runs (defense) + 20 runs (offense) = 30 run upgrade, or 3 wins

Three wins is a ginormous upgrade. It’s ever so slighty more than the difference between Marco Scutaro and A-Rod last year, and just a tad less than the difference between Melky and Matt Kemp. Sure the homer and RBI numbers might not look much different, and obviously this is just a quick-and-dirty analysis, but don’t kid yourself. Replacing 38 year old Jason Giambi with 29 year old Mark Teixeira is a massive upgrade for the 2009 Yankees.

Use this as your open thread for the evening. The Knicks are in Charlotte, and the Pacific Life Holiday Bowl (Ok. State vs Oregon) is on as well. I’ll be watching House. Make sure you check out Blueseat Blogs as well, I’m filling in this week while Dave’s on vacation. Okay, you know the routine. Have fun, play nice.

Categories : Open Thread
  • Moshe Mandel

    Mike, any thoughts on comparable current players for Austin Jackson, Jesus Montero, DEllin Betances, McCallister, and Melancon strictly in terms of eventual value if everything goes right (as opposed to skill set)? I came up with Johnny Damon, Victor Martinez, Carlos Zambrano, Andy Pettitte, and Huston Street as my best case scenarios, respectively. What do you think?

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      I hate doing this stuff because it always makes me look like an idiot, but here it goes:

      Jackson: Mike Cameron w/o the great D
      Montero: Piazza
      Betances: Daniel Cabrera w/ better control
      McAllister: Kevin Millwood
      Melancon: … I got nothing. fb-curve relievers aren’t common, Street’s a sinker-slider guy. Maybe a lesser Kerry Wood?

      These are all best case scenarios, so don’t kill me. The chances of these guys reaching those ceiling is tiny. Like, really tiny.

      • Moshe Mandel

        Of course. I was thinking Millwood, actually. And in regard to Street, I was just referring to value, meaning I think they could have similar results, knowing that they may reach their results differently. Thanks for the input.

      • Ivan

        I don’t really wanna compare Montero to Piazza.

        I mean Piazza in his heyday was the top 5 best hitters in baseball and I don’t Montero can do that although the potential is certainly there. I will say this, Montero despite the question about his D is better at defense than Piazza.

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

          I know, and that’s why I hate doing this things. He was the best I could come up with. V-Mart is more of avg guy than power guy. Maybe Mike Stanley?

          • Ivan

            I’ll be supa exstatic if Montero becomes Piazza with at least avg D. Yikes….for the rest of the league.

            • steve (different one)

              i’d be pretty happy if he became Mike Stanley.

              Stanley was pretty damn good.

      • Ivan

        How about this comparison

        Melancon: Scott Shields

        • b/c

          +1

        • the most felonious vocalist in the wide world of showbusiness

          What about Tom Gordon when he was younger and used his curveball a lot more often?

      • Mike Pop

        So what your saying is Dellin won’t be very good ?

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

          No. If Cabrera had avg control he’d be a good pitcher. If he had above avg control, like Betances, he’d be awesome. Betances isn’t a knucklehead like Danny either.

          • Mike Pop

            I cant wait to see Dellin. Projected to be a Numero Uno and hopefully he pitches like one.

            • ‘The’ Steve

              Yeah, Dellin’s my fave prospect to keep an eye on as well. For all of the hype about Brackman, Dellin’s actually further along at a younger age (20/23). Also has more innings under his belt, believe it or not.

              • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

                Hughes is younger than Brackman too.

                • Mike Pop

                  Brackman >>> Hughes though right?

                  He has more potential/upside right?

                • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

                  Brackman has a higher ceiling, but I don’t think anyone in their right mind would take him over Hughes right now.

                • ‘The’ Steve

                  Exactly. Hughes is on the verge of being a #2 starter, wheras Brackman is almost a complete unknown at this point to a MLB club. All projection at this point.

          • ‘The’ Steve

            Yeah, exactly. Cabrera is just a dope. I’m sure he thinks his wildness gives him an edge, but it comes back to bite him far too often.

      • ‘The’ Steve

        “Betances: Daniel Cabrera w/ better control”

        If Cabrera had better control, he could be an absolute stud. His whole problem is he generally has no idea where the ball is going, and is prone to the big inning. Cabrera has dominated the Yanks at times, but would usually have one inning where he blows up. If Dellin could avoid that . . . .

        Believe it or not, he has an older brother who was even wilder than he is. Hitters in the DR were scared to face him, for fear of getting injured.

        • Mike Pop

          He was pitching that no no once right ? But then Cano broke it up I think.

          • ‘The’ Steve

            Yeah, he’s dominated the Yanks a few times. And even the times they lit him up, it was usually the one big inning. Which is sort of like saying “Other than THAT Mrs Lincoln, how was the play?”

      • Capital T

        Melancon – Flash Gordon

  • Dave

    Applying some common-sense here, three wins more with Tex would be conservative.

    • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

      My calculations (See blog) have him at 4.07 WAR. Woo.

  • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

    Also: the pumping of the Rangers blog is reminding me that in like…October, I told myself I’d start watching hockey again. I haven’t watched more than like….five minutes of a single game since then.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      I’ve watched almost every game. I’ve missed about 5. I’m proud of myself.

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

        And I’m just pumping it because I’m covering this week, plus I know how hard it is to get a new blog off the ground.

      • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

        I’ve watched most of the Yankee games since 2006…probably 90% of them. The only ones I miss are the ones where I’m up at school because, Mo forbid, YES be carried by UConn’s cable package.

        I would like to get back into hockey because I think it’s a very cool game and it’s absolutely wonderful to watch live. I used to play until I started playing basketball and then I just started falling out of it.

    • al

      heres for the rest of us that cant get the yes network this website has most yankee games and a ton of other sports too that you can stream you have to download a chinese program and the commentary is sometimes in chinese but its still better than joe morgan…. http://www.myp2p.eu/

  • Corey

    Any thoughts on the JETS getting Shanahan to coach us and bolster the run game?

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      He could turn Leon into a 1,500 yd back. I’m sure they’ll express interest, I wouldn’t be opposed.

      I think Cowher ends up in Denver, it’s a perfect situation for him. Franchise QB already in place, and he’ll have control over personnel decisions. The only question is if they can afford him.

      • Corey

        What do you think it will take to get Shanahan?

        If Woody wont spring for him who do you like?

        • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

          Anyone but Spags! Don’t leave me, Spags!

          • Mike Pop

            I want Rex Ryan for me beloved Cowboys

            • Jay CT

              Mike, how about Shanahan for your Tony Romo. Both came from Western Illinois (or eastern or souther or something…) I believe, and he did lose him to Dallas for 20 G’s as aUFA out of college. Course, with 200 posts, this might be posted below here

      • Ivan

        If you are the Jets do ya start over or still keep Brett to go for it again?

        • A.D.

          Does Brett want to come back?

          I think he doesn’t, they try for McNabb, else Derek Anderson, since they probably don’t want to go with a rookie QB

          • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

            Derek Anderson was the first name I came up with. McNabb would be interesting too, but the Bears and maybe the 49ers get involved.

            • Mike Pop

              Trade for David Carr lol

            • A.D.

              Cassel might be available too… doubtful for the Jets, but to most of the other teams needing a QB, i.e. Lions, Bears (prob less into Cassel), 49ers.

              • Mike Pop

                Mike Vick

                • Sweet Dick Willie

                  Nah. Vick & Plax wind up w/ your ‘Boys.

        • E-ROC

          You keep Brett Favre unless he retires. The Jets can still draft a QB in this year’s draft but there aren’t many available like in years past. Stafford and Bradford will be off the board. Maybe USC’s Mark Sanchez, Utah’s Brian Johnson, or Tim Tebow? That would be my order. Actually, I would take Pat White before Tim Tebow.

          • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

            Do they have a first rounder this year? I know there was a conditional pick in the Favre deal, something like if they made the playoffs the Pack got their first rounder.

            I like Sanchez the best of those guys, maybe take a mid-to-late round chance on Chase Patton if you miss out on all the big names.

            • A.D.

              They only loose their 1st round if they went to the superbowl… that will not happen. Since they missed the playoffs I believe its a 3rd rounder they loose to the Pack

          • A.D.

            Only White & Johnson have to come out in that group mentioned. Graham Harrell & Chase Daniel are the other well-known senior QB.

            I wouldn’t take White over Tebow assuming you were actually drafting the player to play QB. Tebow has actually had to play the QB position in a semi-normal matter, and is a better passer.

            • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

              Daniel’s a system QB. Patton’s the better pro prospect even though he was Daniel’s backeup – taller, stronger, more accurate arm, more mobile.

              • A.D.

                That maybe true, but he also really hasn’t played competitive football since he was a senior in HS. Why that may work for Cassel, it didn’t for Henson, and many others

            • E-ROC

              Graham Harrell reminds me of Cliff Kingsbury and Chase Daniel looked a bit spotty this year. I guess that is why they have the senior bowl and the Combine.

              Pat White didn’t play in pro system, but I still like his playmaking abilities along with his arm strength and mechanics more than Tebow.

              • A.D.

                Yeah I doubt Harrell does well in the NFL, he reminds me more of Colt Brennan than Kingsbury…but as you said it all comes down to the combine.

                White didn’t play in a pro system, mostly because no one one recruit him to, and while he has good arm strength he doesn’t have good mechanics, he has a very long football delivery, which looks like a pitchers wind-up (or Byron Leftwich), throw in the knock that he’s too small, and has likely never played in a pro system, means that he won’t be an NFL QB.

                Pat White is a great athlete, and he will go to be in the Randle El, Heinz Ward, Matt Jones mold, hopefully with similar success or at least more success than Eric Crouch

          • AMS223

            pat white is going to be a WR in the NFL

            • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

              Tim Tebow = Mike Alstott, just slightly less awesome.

            • E-ROC

              Certainly possible, but not every scrambling athletic QB has to switch positions.

    • A.D.

      My guess they get Cowher, Shanahan goes to the Browns

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

        The ESPN guys said the Browns were going to talk to Mangini. I laughed.

      • Ricky

        whoever gets Shanny is lucky. I (a die-hard Broncos fan) am pissed that we fired him and think we took a huge step backwards. I just hope the Chiefs dont get him.

    • E-ROC

      The Jets should stay away from Mike Shanahan especially if they give him an additional title like assistant gm or head of football operations. The Jets should go all out for Bill Cowher if he’s interested and give whatever he wants.

  • 27 this year

    by the way, anyone curious

    Cablevision has MLB network on channel 143 with channel 790 being HD.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      Time Warner is covering it on 174, not sure what HD is. Maybe 884?

      • Manimal

        http://mlb.mlb.com/network/

        It has a count down to when it starts and it has a channel locator, just type in the Zip Code and it gives you all the codes.

  • Manimal

    Is there a new house on tonight?

    • Manimal

      Yeah its an old episode, the one when House’s dad dies.

    • A.D.

      Not till it moves to Mondays

  • Ivan

    Yo how would you compare Tex to Beltran?

    I mean there basically the same players. Guys who are terrfic players but not “superstar” players. Both Swith hit, both are terrific OBP guys and etc.

    Who would you guys take?

    Beltran plays the premium position but Tex (at least to me) is a better offensive hitter. I might have to go Beltran no?

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      I’d take Beltran. Great offense and otherworldly defense at a premium position. The only thing Tex has on him is age.

      • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

        Agreed.

        • Mike Pop

          Teix over Holliday though no ?

          • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

            That one’s not even close. Tex by a mile.

            • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

              Holliday’s older too.

          • Ivan

            Tex over Holliday no doubt about it.

            • Mike Pop

              Well its a good thing we made the move this offseason.

              • Ivan

                oh yea.

      • Manimal

        You don’t think Tex affects his team more on the field since First basemen could take away errors from everyone in the infield? Its a hard comparison.

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

          Nah. That argument is a bit of a stretch. That’s like the Jim Rice HOF argument. When your best case is “he was the most feared!!!” that’s not saying much.

          • Steve H

            Though A-Rod played his absolute best at 3rd when Mientkiewicz was at first, so it probably has some effect, even if it mentally helps a fielder throwing the ball that he doesn’t have to be perfect if throwing to someone like Giambi.

            • http://www.new.facebook.com/home.php?ref=home#/profile.php?id=594331910&ref=name Jamal G.

              A-Rod played his best at third base in 2004.

        • Ryan S.

          The thing is that you need to hold his defensive assets relative to his position. Now, if the question is, which player would help us more defensively relative to who was there last year, its no question, the answer is Teixeira, who replaces Giambi.

          But in a vacuum, Beltran at CF and league average defense at 1B is more valuable than a league average defense at CF and Teix at 1B.

          • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

            But in a vacuum, Beltran at CF and league average defense at 1B is more valuable than a league average defense at CF and Teix at 1B.

            Ding ding ding, we have a winner. Same argument holds true for putting Jeter in LF.

            Jeter in LF + lg avg SS >>> Jeter at SS + lg avg LF

            • ‘The’ Steve

              2010, baby. Yanks would be foolish not to use his looming contract extension to get him to play LF.

              Who plays SS, I have no idea.

              • Mike Pop

                Hardy !

                • Ryan S.

                  Hardy looks the likeliest FA candidate to me at this point, and I don’t really see any other viable candidate surpassing him by 2010.

                • ‘The’ Steve

                  Hardy Har-har

              • Sweet Dick Willie

                Who plays SS, I have no idea.

                Hanley. Ramirez.

    • Ryan S.

      Beltran > Teix > Holliday.

      For the record, Pujols > all.

  • Dan

    Why all the good press for the sawx.

    No matter what they do or don’t do, the press loves them. Nevermind ESPN which turns into the sawx network on a regular basis or gammons who is noithing more than a sawx hack recently. No one calls them out.
    I mean giving up on Tex is so reminiscent of the A-Rod miss. They lack an ability to think. Whether on their feet or strategically. Their recent inability to close on Tex is the worst baseball move since their trade for Gagne or their signing of Lugo or nevermind you get the point.
    In what is fast becoming my favorite blog they are pretty well called out and pretty much called incompetant.

    http://lsos1.blogspot.com/

    • ‘The’ Steve

      That’s what happens when you win 2 WS in the past 5 years and make the playoffs just about every year for the past 10. You’re bulletproof according to the spineless weather vanes that most sportswriters are.

      When you lose, you can’t do anything right in the eyes of the sportwriters (and many fans) when you win, every move is touched by genius. Look at the front page of the daily news and what has happened to Mangini this week. He’s “trying to copy Belichek” he’s “Fat” and “has no personality”. All personal attacks, all unfair and having nothing to do with him as a coach. Why? Because he went 9-7 with a washed up QB who everyone thought was their savior, including the owner.

      BTW-Girardi also cant get a good word from the press these days, but I suspect that will all change very soon.

    • steve (different one)

      i hate the Sox as much as anyone, but they are far from incompetant.

  • A.D.

    If Tex can put his 2008 numbers again his contract is actually a deal!

  • The Evil Empire

    Matt Holliday for 2010!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    • Mike Pop

      Jayson Werth please !

      • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

        I’d hold the phone on that one. I want to see if he can start to hit right handers first.

        • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

          He’s also a year older than Holliday.

          • Mike Pop

            Alot cheaper though.. and not to mention the grit

            • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

              Well, let’s just see how the two of them do in 09.

              Werth’s CHONE projections:

              .264/.365/.445, 15 HR, 57 RBI, 17 2B, 2 3B, 55 BB, 107 SO

              • Mike Pop

                You love Chone lol

                • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

                  I feel like it’s somewhere in the middle. Marcels is more harsh and Bill James is pretty optimistic.

  • Mike Pop
  • Ivan

    So Mike Pop,

    What you think the Boys are gonna do? What would you want the cowboys to do?

    Putting aside my Cowboys hatred, the talent is still tremendous but there were times they played like pussies especially on D. Not tackling, gettin bullied on the lines, gettin killed on the air.

    Plus, I just found out they were the worst team in concern with penalties and penalties yd’s. That’s the coach fault right there no?

    • Mike Pop

      I say look into Cowher but he wants full control which Jerry wont give him probably. I would definitely go after Rex Ryan. Right now he is my first choice by a mile. Dude is a total badass. Sign Sean Jones (Browns) to play safety. Get a better backup (Vick) cut Brad Johnson tell him to retire. Do something with the O Cord, maybe just let Garret go to Detroit. I dont know if therre are any good O Cord’s available ? Im good with the D, just sign Sean Jones. Get Cory Proctor as far away from the team as possible.

      Just hope Kosier comes back healthy for next year and we should be a better team. Romo still has time to prove himself, he just needs to do it within the next 2 years.

      The defensive backs are solid with T-New, Mike Jenkins, Scandrick and even Pacman (as llong as he stays out of trouble). Just sign Sean Jones and cut Roy Williams and hope we can bring him back for cheaper. I love him but he gets killed in coverage.He was another injury too though so maybe losing him hurt us more than I think.

      Rex Ryan–For either HC or D Cord, whichever he would take…Ultimately we will probably keep Wade but Jerry knows more than me.

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

        You can’t count on Pacman at all. Whatever they get out of him is pure bonus.

        • Mike Pop

          He is a talent though. If he can replicate half of what he did in Tennesee before he got suspended I would be stoked.

          • Jay CT

            Pacman had 1 good season. He has talent, but missing that much time set him back eons. I hate all the Cowboys talk, but Tony Romo needs to stop worrying about being on US weekly and start worrying about being on SI. I think Romo has alot of talent, I would bring in Shanahan in a second for that team… oh yeah, and I still say get rid of T.O. and maybe bring in Boldin. I hate the Cowboys though, so I wish I would stop talking about them.

            • Jay CT

              Plus, Hamlin regressed and Roy Williams is overrated. I know you love him Mike, but the horse collar rule would stop if he would stop getting burned. He is always looking for that big hit, he is so out of place in his position.

        • http://26ncounting.blogspot.com VO

          you cant call him pacman mike only his teamates can

      • Ivan

        What about that offensive C from the Cowboys that Jerry Jones I think paid more money thand Wade? I heard he might replace W. Philips.

        PS: My Eagles made the playoffs, In ya face dude.

        • Mike Pop

          I mentioned him but he might interview with Det. In my face? Lol they did it to us enough on Sunday. I still hate the EAgals more than anybody except the Racial SLurs and Gmen.

          Rex Ryan baby!!!!!!…… but it wont happen ;(

          Ryan should of been the one who got the Chargers job.

          • Mike Pop

            I would even bring Shanahan in over Wade. I wish Wade would move to D Cord for either Ryan or Shanny.. He was a great D cordinator in San Diego.

          • Ivan

            Yea that 44-6 win was just sweet.

            • Mike Pop

              I could imagine how good it felt

              • http://www.new.facebook.com/home.php?ref=home#/profile.php?id=594331910&ref=name Jamal G.

                Not as good as last year’s Divisional Playoff win over you guys (sorry, I had to).

                • Mike Pop

                  I know I know.. Cant wait till next season man.

      • Ryan S.

        As an avid Cowboy hater, I thoroughly endorse your nomination to have Michael Vick be the Dallas Cowboys backup QB. That would just be utterly amazing.

        Please keep Wade, T.O., Romo (not that his job is in danger, fortunately), Tank Johnson, and Pacman Jones. The boys aren’t the same without those “winners”.

        • Ryan S.

          Oh btw, Jerry Jones has become the Al Davis Jr. He’s killing your team – his judgment is very clouded and he needs some separation from the team if you guys want to have a chance.

          • Mike Pop

            This is the most ignorant statement I have ever read. He makes the team better. Hes not Al Davis giving 70 million to D Hall then they have to cut him mid-season. He brings in talent not horrible players. Put your hatred aside because that is obviously clouding your judgement. You need to just not comment on this topic for a while.

            • http://photos-e.ak.fbcdn.net/photos-ak-snc1/v621/134/99/513321182/n513321182_2118948_7574.jpg Nady Nation

              Oh yea, Jerry Jones is doing wonders for your organization. Giving away a 1st, 3rd, AND 6th round pick for a WR when you already have arguably the best receiver in football is just a smart fundamental football move.

              • Mike Pop

                Ya cause TO is only 25 right? Its a move that was good for us to make. If not he would of been franchised and we would of got into a bidding war over him. We needed another playmaker for the future man. Its not that bad of a trade. Roy is much better than what he did in Dallas after the trade. It will be worth it

                • http://photos-e.ak.fbcdn.net/photos-ak-snc1/v621/134/99/513321182/n513321182_2118948_7574.jpg Nady Nation

                  Dude, you’re totally selling short the value of draft picks in the NFL. 3 picks, 2 of which are 1st and 3rds, is NOT going to be worth it for Roy Williams. I have no idea why you’re drinking the Jerry Jones Kool-Aid so hard. Your team hasn’t won a playoff game in over a decade, clearly he’s not the football guru you believe he is.

                • Mike Pop

                  We have another 3rd round pick from Cleveland and Detroits 4th or 5th Im not too sure on that one. I dont know if you know that but that makes it a much better deal. We basically gave up a 1st round pick for him. Its not as big of a deal. Chances are that first round pick wont be as good as RW will be for us. We thought this was our year to win it all and he was a missing piece. He wanted to make the team better for the championship run/ to win that playoff game. This was a good move man.
                  Cmon RW is a really talented WR, he just wasnt used right in the games with us.

                  He has 3 rings for his team which is pretty impressive and I know he hasnt done shit since or you can credit Jimmy for that but 3 rings is 3 rings.

                  RW was the best we could of got except for maybe TJ but who knows if cincy was even willing to deal him.

                  Did we give up too much for a player we didnt utilize correctly for this season? Yes, but we signed him to an extension and its not like he is a boras guy taking a walk after the year is over. The dude is only 27, he was a great pickup

                • http://photos-e.ak.fbcdn.net/photos-ak-snc1/v621/134/99/513321182/n513321182_2118948_7574.jpg Nady Nation

                  Agree to disagree. I don’t see how you can ever call trading 3 draft picks for a WR who isn’t a top 5 (maybe not even top 10) WR in football a “great pickup”.

                • Mike Pop

                  I know what your saying, obviously its not a good deal like trading Herschel Walker to Minnesota back in the day but this trade has 4 or 5 years to judge itself. Hopefully one of us can gloat to the other one about it.

                • Jay CT

                  Yeah, but in fairness, Dallas knew they were picking up an extra 4th round pick from tennessee so its kind of like only giving up 2. And they are cutting Owens this year, which is why they went all in for RW, for next year, not this year.

        • Ivan

          To be fair, TO has been terrific for Boys. He’s really the least of their problems trust me.

          • Ryan S.

            I’m going to have to disagree that TO has been “terriffic”, especially this year. TO is a huge distraction and a total drama queen. Now I agree, TO is an offensive asset, and TO’s verbal outbursts this year was the result of him being frustrated by poor playcalling by the coaches, but still, he is a very volatile personality and he will inevitable run his mouth and publicly denounce his team. One year he’s crying in defense for his quarterback, and the next year he’s accusing Romo of sneaking around his back and secretly making plays with Witten. For the most team oriented sport there is, being such a polarizing force and alienating the quarterback isn’t a very good thing.

        • Mike Pop

          Ya your right. Without T.O./Romo/and (somewhat because he is a good player) Tank Johnson we would have had losing records the past 3 years. I really wish we didnt have those guys. Jerry Jones would not be making as much money, we wouldnt be selling out seats. Fuck Jerry, why would you want talented players on your team. What a dumb fuck right ?

          • Ryan S.

            Jerry never seems to take attitude into consideration, and what was the clubhouse’s biggest problem this year? Shitty locker room atmosphere, right? Jerry looks purely at skill potential and doesn’t realize he’s recruiting a bunch of drama queens. Yeah you guys win regular season games (sometimes), but you choke in the playoffs if the team is ever good enough to get there in the first place. For The Cowboys to have so much talent on their team – 13 pro bowlers from last year (and that doesn’t even include Romo) – there are problems with the team beyond just the players. That blame goes squarely on the owner/GM and the coaches.

            Jones is totally stubborn if he wants to keep Wade – Wade is a good defensive coordinator, but a horrible head coach, especially when it comes to managing the personalities on a team … and even moreso on this team, since there are so many big egos.

            Jason Garrett has lost a large amount of stock around the league too – he went from being one of the hottest coaching candidates out there to the Lions asking for permission to speak to him. He totally did not take advantage of his weapons and the playcalling became very predictable. I’ve got my fingers crossed he comes back too.

            Just keep on adding the big names and making ridiculous trades like you did for Roy Williams, Jerry! Don’t ever look at the root of the problems, which go far beyond players not performing up to expectations.

            I lived in Dallas for 10 years and I still live in Texas – I know the Cowboys pretty damn well and I watch a lot of their games (always cheering on their opponent of course). One of the best reality show on TV is the Dallas Cowboys football season.

            • Mike Pop

              Roy Williams trade was not a bad one. I have to disagree with that.

              I agree that Garret made shitty ass playcalling and I was calling for his head midseason.

              With what you said on Wade–I have said thats why I want Rex Ryan. I dont think he is a “horrible” head coach but how he handles shit does piss me off.

              I dont think the problem this team has is Jerry Jones. Especially this year Jones was not the problem. We died because of Kosier/Garret’s play calling/and some of Brian Stewart’s bs. THey did not utilize the team right like you said.

              Still he brought in the talent and his team has had much more exposure in the past 3 years than they had in the prior 4 or 5. He has made this team better and he is a fine GM.

              I want to get rid of Wade but I think he is on board going into next season. Obviously how he does then will determine his future.

              • Steve H

                That Roy Williams trade was completely brutal. He’s a #2 receiver and they gave up way too much for him. Way too much. And then to overpay him too, terrible.

              • Ryan S.

                Okay, lets say Jerry Jones the owner and Jerry Jones the GM are separate people, for argument’s sake.

                Don’t you think Jones the owner would’ve fired Jones the GM’s ass by now, after not winning a single playoff game for 10 (I think its 10 at least) years?

                Its not like Jones doesn’t make some good decisions here and there, but he’s way too emotionally attached to the team and his desire to WIN NOW NO MATTER THE COST … it hasn’t been working out.

                As for Roy Williams, he is NOT worth a 1st, 3rd, and 6th round pick. That’s utterly ridiculous. Roy had 198 yards in 10 games for Dallas, or 19.8 yards / game. He was useless because his talent was wasted by shitting playcalling. As good as he does in his future as a Cowboy, its hard to imagine him being worth more than the picks he cost. Y’know…a 1st round pick is kind of a big deal. If he just cost that, the trade would be DEBATABLE at this point. Throw in the 3rd and 6th rounders…its a no brainer – bad move. I’d be SO pissed if I was a Cowboys fan.

                • Mike Pop

                  Good thing your not then. Its not as completely brutal as people make it out to be.. You will see.


                  Its not like Jones doesn’t make some good decisions here and there, but he’s way too emotionally attached to the team and his desire to WIN NOW NO MATTER THE COST … it hasn’t been working out. ”

                  Steinbrenners do it too but you dont hate them for it or say they suck because its your team. You’ll support them

                  Im just sayin RW chances are he is better than anything we would of got with our 1st rounder. We gave away a 3rd but we had 2 of them.

                  He got desperate, wanted his team to win it all this year, there is nothing wrong with that. He thought RW was the kye to that and so did alot of people after the trade.

                  If RW caught more passes and made a bigger impact this would not even be a discussion right now. Everyone was saying holy shit what a tandum, they are going to be brutal to defend together… That was even said on this blog when it happened. RW is better than a flat out 2, Crayton is a 2. RW is like a 1.5 lol..

                  Cant wait for next season that is all I have to say. Im done arguing this football talk because writing these long paragraphs suck on here.

                  I am fine with the deal, he got desperate, wanted to win this year. Just like MLB GM’s do with impending FA’s except he signed an extension. 4 or 5 years of RW’s production >>>>> the 24th pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. The 3rd could have been valuable but we had a great draft in 08 so we will be fine.

                • Ryan S.

                  Mike, in regards to what you said about the Steinbrenners…

                  My like for the Yanks and dislike for the Cowboys has nothing to do with whether or not I agree or disagree with their organizational philosophy. I’ll always love NYY and always hate the Cowboys, regardless of how good or bad they are.

                  Also, you’re clearly undervaluing the draft if you think RW’s production is guaranteed to exceed the 24th overall pick, let alone that + their 3rd rounder + their 6th rounder. That’s 3 players, one of which is obviously ranked very highly if he’s pick in the first round.

      • E-ROC

        The only way Rex Ryan leaves my Ravens is if the position is of the head coaching variety.

        Jerry Jones should hire a GM.

        Wade Phillips should be released of his duties.

        • Mike Pop

          Jerry Jones has done a fine job as a GM in his tenure. Come on, he is not the problem. And I know your a Raven fan and dont want him to leave. I agree that he would need to be the Head Coach to leave. I would show him the money to come to big D.

          • E-ROC

            Bill Parcells has a lot do with the current players on the Cowboys.

            • Mike Pop

              Agreed, wish he never “retired”. He was against TO though and if we didnt have TO we would not have been as “successful” as we have been.

              • Ryan S.

                Now here we are in agreement, if you guys had Parcells you’d be a much better team. He’d have bitchslapped TO and cut his ass from the squad if Owens was such a disruption on a team Parcells coached. ‘

                But please, please don’t tell me you’d take TO has a wide receiver instead of Parcells as a head coach. You really think TO putting up 1,000 yard seasons couldn’t be replaced by the Cowboys? Parcells gets the most out of a team and its not even close which person has the bigger positive impact on a team.

                • Mike Pop

                  TO wasnt as huge of a distraction as people make him out to be on the Cowboys. Especially not this year. TO is on my team and Im gonna defend him lol. Its not like he has ever got into any gun trouble or killed a guy (cough cough Ray Lewis cough)

                • Steve H

                  Terry Glenn was on my team, I and no one else defended him, they kicked him off the team and won a Super Bowl.

                  TO’s production doesn’t outweigh his issues. In Football, chemistry and being a good teammate matter. TO would be great in baseball where chemistry doesn’t matter much, but his headaches aren’t worth it. Oh yeah, and he drops too many f’ing passes.

                • E-ROC

                  Ray Lewis is innocent, dammit!

                • Ryan S.

                  More importantly (not really…but kinda), he’s an amazing teammate and leader. AND a bigger impact player than Owens.

                • Mike Pop

                  Lol.. Well there is no way I can win here and I never expected too… too many haters but the performance TO had in the SB while being hurt was awesome.

                  TO is a huge impact player on the field.. dont try to take that away from him

                • Ryan S.

                  When utilized properly, he’s one of the best. But he hurt the team more than he helped this year.

                  And while yes, I am an adamant Cowboy hater (I drive my stepbrother fucking NUTS. He loves ‘da Boys) and I revel in their demise, I try to be as fair and accurate in my analysis as possible. I give credit when credit is due, and coming into the season, I picked the Cowboys to win it all…which I blame on that HBO show Hard Knocks. Anyways, The Cowboys have plenty of good qualities and I’m sure they’ll a significant presence in the NFC next year, as they always are, but this year was HUGE for them. They’ve lost a ton of cred … I’m not gonna be able to be impressed by a Cowboy team for a loooong time. Until they win at least 1 playoff game during a season, they won’t have any of my respect. Of course, even if they do win one at some point within my life time, they will always have my hatred.

                • Mike Pop

                  Hopefully this year made them realize something. Maybe it takes some pressure off them with lower expectations.

                  It sucked yea but there were many collapses this year..denver/Jets

                  Jus a shitty year for us fans

                • Ryan S.

                  Man, it definitely was Mike. Like I said my stepbro is a Cowboys fan, and I was watching the game with him on Sunday. He was devastated…I’ve seen the direct effect of what the season did to the fans. But he hates the Yankees so fuck him.

  • ‘The’ Steve

    Marquis For Vizcaino Trade Close

    “6:20PM: This story has been confirmed by Troy Renck of the Denver Post.

    While the deal likely won’t be official until next week, it looks like the Cubs will be paying $1MM of Marquis’ salary in 2009. That makes a net reduction of roughly $5MM in payroll for the Cubs.”

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....r-viz.html

    Looks like a done deal. This move isn’t all that interesting in itself, but it has long been suspected that moving Marquis would trigger other moves by the Cubbies.

    So stay tuned.

  • ????

    Yanks should get Markakis………just kidding.

    • ‘The’ Steve

      Love the name. Very mysterious.

  • Ryan S.

    Wow…I knew Teixeira kicked ass…but I didn’t know he kicked THAT much ass. To be worth 3 wins over GIAMBI? Wow. I mean, I know The Big G isn’t an elite player anymore, but he’s still a guy worth having on your baseball team – for Tex to be worth 3 more wins than him is a big deal.

  • ‘The’ Steve

    What Phil Hughes does in the offseason

    http://www.nomaas.org/images/hughes-mri.jpg

    I love No Mass

    • Ivan

      I saw that.

      It was mean but funny.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      What NoMaas does in the offseason:

      http://tinyurl.com/2tyeh7

      • ‘The’ Steve

        Aw come on, Mike. That was funny.

        BTW- They have an interesting write up that piggy backs the piece you did today on Tex and where he fits at his position and in Baseball, mostly using VORP. Check it out.

  • Ivan

    Well Look at the bright side guys, when ever ya fav team fucks up, at least you can say to ya self your not this team:

    http://www.nflfootballstadiums.....s-Logo.gif

    • ‘The’ Steve

      Somehow, that doesn’t make me feel any better.

  • Mike Pop

    Who drafts Crabtree ?

    • Reggie C.

      check out Nfldraftblitz.com for mock drafts.

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

        The Jags taking Beanie? Even with Taylor & MJD?

        • Mike Pop

          I could see Crabtree going to Det…….lol

          Will Larinitus really fall to 24?

          • Ivan

            Who’s the best offensive lineman in the 09 draft?

            • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

              That kid from Alabama. The one Sabean just suspended.

              • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

                Speaking of, whatever happened to Robert Gallery? Is he any good?

                • Ivan

                  He fell off.

                  Yo Mike what happen to D’brickashaw Ferguson?

                • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

                  Brick’s awesome, getting better by the game. He’s a Pro Bowl alternate.

                • Ivan

                  Isn’t that dude from CLE the best O-Lineman in football?

                • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

                  Joe Thomas. That kid is a freaking wall.

                • Mike Pop

                  Lol, he didnt go to the draft because he went fishing with his dad. That is funny shit

                • Steve H

                  Brick’s awesome, getting better by the game. He’s a Pro Bowl alternate.

                  And Brett Favre made the Pro Bowl despite being the 3rd best QB in his own division. Not a boost to your argument, though I’m sure Brick is good.

              • Ivan

                For talking or dealing with an agent right?

                He’ll be a guy the Lions can build around cuz the Lions NEED help on both Lines.

                • E-ROC

                  They need a QB first.

                • Ivan

                  But when you got no o-line and RB, well ya QB is gonna get destroyed.

              • A.D.

                Other big time tackle is the guy from Ole Miss… but he might not be a senior, probably will come out regardless

        • Reggie C.

          You don’t like the site’s rationale on that pick? MJD is powerfully built but he’s still a smallish guy for the position. They don’t have a good QB and they’re picking at a spot where the good QBs are off the board.

          • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

            I hadn’t realized that Fred Taylor was on the way out. It makes more sense now.

            A few years ago me and my roommate had a two player franchise going in Madden, and my RB combo was Taylor & Reggie Bush. It was gangsta.

            • Ivan

              Talk about Thnder and lighting.

              • Ivan

                Thunder.

    • ‘The’ Steve

      Mrs Crabtree?

      Spanky, maybe?

    • E-ROC

      Chiefs. Just a guess though.

  • Reggie C.

    Through the season , Nfldraftblitz updated their mock drafts like once every 10 days or so. With the season over we might not get an updated mock draft for a while … likely till the playoffs are done.

    They had the G-me picking WR Darius Heyward-Bey last time.

    • Mike Pop

      I wanted him before the RW trade.

      • Reggie C.

        That #22 slot would’ve let the ‘Boys upgrade the WR position for sure. I know its fashionable to rip the RW trade, but lets see what kind of numbers he posts 8 games into next season. The G-Men are in position to move up in the draft, but even picking from #32, i think Reese can land the WR he wants.

        C’mon MP, Back the G-Men!

        • Mike Pop

          Ya but for me I would take RW > Heyward Bay and thats why I supported that trade. Plus we have an extra 3rd because of the Browns, so it was worth it.

          • Steve H

            Just because you have an extra pick doesn’t make it worth trading one. You had a great advantage with an extra 3rd, and gave away that advantage in a bad trade.

            • Mike Pop

              But RW is most likely going to be better for us over the next 5 years than that 3rd rounder would of been.

              We had 2 first last year and had a great draft IMO. I know draft picks are great. The best way to rebuild your team inexpensively but the trade has yet to be determined. Right now it doesnt look so hot but it has 4 or 5 years to go.

              • Ryan S.

                We had 2 first last year and had a great draft IMO. I know draft picks are great. The best way to rebuild your team inexpensively …

                If anything, that last post hurts the RW defense.

                However good RW ends up being for the Cowboys (if he’s ever any good at all), you could’ve had 3 entire rookie contracts. Besides, wide receiver wasn’t even close to being the biggest need of the team when you got RW.

    • http://photos-e.ak.fbcdn.net/photos-ak-snc1/v621/134/99/513321182/n513321182_2118948_7574.jpg Nady Nation

      Maryland grad here. Heyward-Bey is legit. He’d be a nice Plax replacement, and I’m hoping he falls to us.

      • Reggie C.

        One of those WRs are going to fall to the Giants. I just hope there’s no run on WRs where Bey, Maclin, and Kenny Brit are all off the board. I’d like for Reese to work his magic with all the picks … BUT we do have the extra picks to move up into the mid-1st round and ensure we get a playmaker.

        p.s., Tim Tebow: Good NFL player … or …. the next Eric Crouch ??

        • Mike Pop

          Shit man remember last year… Donnie Avery and then Jordy Nelson were the first guys chosen.. I remember me and my boys were at the draft and we were like damn.. We wanted D Thomas with our 2nd 1st rounder ….We didnt know too much..lol

        • http://photos-e.ak.fbcdn.net/photos-ak-snc1/v621/134/99/513321182/n513321182_2118948_7574.jpg Nady Nation

          Definitely the latter. I think Tebow is gonna be garbage in the NFL.

        • E-ROC

          Good NFL player. Frank Wychek or Mark Brunell.

  • Moshe Mandel

    I would go for Bay over Holliday- similar career numbers, only one year older, and never had the artificial boost of Coors Field.

    • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

      He, like Holliday, though, has also never had a full season in the American League. I think if he’s hitting well by July or August, Boston will go the Bay route and negotiate a mid-season extension rather than get in on the Holliday sweepstakes–unless of course Matty H. has a biiiiiig year in Oakland then Boston may want to wait on the Bay extension, even if he has a big year.

      • ‘The’ Steve

        One thing we know, there won’t be any Holliday extension.

        And this is all moot anyway, because Jeter will be playing LF after next season.

  • D.B.H.O.F. p.k.a The Last Don

    “but don’t kid yourself. Replacing 38 year old Jason Giambi with 29 year old Mark Teixeira is a massive upgrade for the 2009 Yankees.”

    Really? Shocking.

    • ‘The’ Steve

      Actually, some have been trying to make the case (Like RAB fave Tim Dierkes) that the Yanks moves this off season won’t be a substantial upgrade over the 2008 club. I like Tim, but couldn’t disagree more.

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

        That wasn’t Tim, it was one of his weekend guys.

        • ‘The’ Steve

          Ooops! Didn’t notice that.

          • DanElmaleh

            Are you sure? I saw that from Tim on a fewoccasions.

        • Reggie C.

          i think it was that Joe Pazowlski fellow …

      • D.B.H.O.F. p.k.a The Last Don

        While I was not leading the charge for us to get Tex, anybody who thinks he is not a huge huge upgrade over Giambi fails to know how to judge baseball talent and must not even have a remote feel for the game itself.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      Some people just look at HR and RBI and say “he’s not that much better!”

      • Ryan S.

        Some people are morons who need to be punched in the face and then strapped down to a chair with their eyes forced open, ala Clockwork Orange, while Bill James lectures them on advanced statistics.

        • E-ROC

          Yikes, such violence. It must be that rap music.

          • Ryan S.

            Its “ultra violence” and actually no, not rap … Beethoven.

            • E-ROC

              lol.

        • ‘The’ Steve

          I heard James Hetfield of Mettalica interviewed on NPR a year or so back, and he said that he recently learned that the Marines were using his music to ‘torture’ prisoners with. They would play Mettalica real loud, and the terrorist suspects had never heard anything like this before, so it would drive them batty. Eventually they would break down and tell them anything.

      • ‘The’ Steve

        If Gardner is as good in CF as Stick Michael keeps saying, then he could be on par with Carlos Gomez, who was a +32 defender last year.

        That, and some of the effect he has on games show up as ‘fielder’s choice’ or ‘error’ on a SS or 3B who rushed a throw, caused by his speed. So his value doesn’t always show up in his numbers. But having a guy who extends innings with a bunch of .400 OBP guys behind him is a good thing to have.

        If he gets on base 1/3 of the time and scores anywhere around 90 runs in the 9 hole while playing a stellar CF, I’ll be thrilled.

        • Moshe Mandel

          Kieth Law seems to think that Gardner is not that great out there.

          • ‘The’ Steve

            Link? I’d like to see his reasoning.

            • Moshe Mandel

              Cant find a direct scouting report, did find this:

              Stack (NJ): Not sure if you’ve seen much of Gardner but defensively he’s not far off from Cameron.

              Keith Law: (1:10 PM ET ) I have. He’s not close to Cameron.

              http://sports.espn.go.com/chat.....t_id=24182

              • ‘The’ Steve

                Cameron NOW? I assume the context was in some trade talk.

                One man’s opinion, I guess. Still would like to see why he thinks that. We’ll have to see how he plays over the course of a season before anyone knows for sure, but Stick keeps saying (on ESPN radio) he thinks Gardner will be “The best fielding CF in the AL with a year or so”.

                • Ryan S.

                  Yes, he was indeed talking about the Mike Cameron of today (I’ve read that whole live chat … love ‘da KLaw).

                • steve (different one)

                  that sounds a bit to me like Law feeling the need to sound like he knows everything.

                  i like Law, but he does that.

            • steve (different one)

              i’m not 100% sold on Gardner’s ability to get on base in the majors, but i have to say he looked pretty awesome in CF last year.

              with Teixeira in the lineup, i think it gives them a little more leeway to play Brett a little more, even if he’s not starting full-time.

          • Ryan S.

            What gives with KLaw and the Gardner dislike? Has he not seen him recently? Kid looks like a good quality defensive CF to me, for Law to say he’s not even close to an aging Mike Cameron defensively … it just doesn’t make sense to me.

            • ‘The’ Steve

              Lots of people are down on Gardner. But he has a fan in the manager, and I think he’s one of those guys who you have to watch play, because (as I posted above) what he brings doesn’t always show up in the box score on his side of the ledger. And if you look at OPS, you’ll never appreciate him. His game is getting on base, scoring runs and catching everything in CF.

              • Moshe Mandel

                To be honest, I think watching on TV gives a misleading sense of defense. We see a fast guy who dives and we assume good defense. We never really see things like getting a jump, taking good routes, etc. And I find defensive stats equally unconvincing.

                • ‘The’ Steve

                  Some of us also attend games.

                • Moshe Mandel

                  Enough games to get a comprehensive feel of defense? How many plays does a CF get in your typical game?

              • Ryan S.

                Sounds dandy for a #9 hitter. His slugging is always going to be horrendous since he looks like he has 0 power, but let’s see. He has the speed to turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples.

                Being that Gardner is left handed, at least he’s playing in the right stadium if he wants a shot at getting a home run in his major league career.

                • ‘The’ Steve

                  If he hits one, it will be an accident.

              • steve (different one)

                And if you look at OPS, you’ll never appreciate him. His game is getting on base, scoring runs and catching everything in CF.

                if he gets on base, we will appreciate him by looking at OPS.

                • ‘The’ Steve

                  No, that’s OBP. His OPS will always be low because his SLG numbers will be weak.

                • Steve H

                  And OPS underweighs OBP, especially for a speed guy who can turn walks and singles into extra bases.

        • D.B.H.O.F. p.k.a The Last Don

          Stick Michael is the best baseball man employed but yet not listened to that much by our favorite baseball team.

  • A.D.

    And NFL Draftblitz mock draft lost credibility when it had Kenny Britt in the first round, and on top of that ahead of Maclin

    • A.D.

      That and their order is wrong

    • Reggie C.

      Yeah … i thought a better selection would’ve been Darius Heyward-Bey who’s not as tall as Britt , but just a better WR all-around.

  • Steve O.

    No love for the Carolina Panthers?

  • ????

    I am warming up to Gardner in center. I love Melky but I think Gardner could really help the team more than Melky could. Even if Gardner does not hit well he could save some runs in the outfield, bunt for hits, steal bases, cause fielders to make errors because of his speed and just be a second leadoff guy in the 9th spot to get on base for the big guys.

    • ‘The’ Steve

      A run suppressed counts just as much as a run scored. This is a foreign concept to far too many Yankee fans, but it works. The Rays were about 8th in the AL in Runs scored last year, they made it to the WS with pitching and catching everything in the field.

      • ????

        good point.

    • Jake H

      I really like Gardner’s speed. I just wonder if he can hit enough.

  • http://26ncounting.blogspot.com VO

    you know whats gonna be good this year. when joba throws at youkilis again he charges and cc sits on him

  • Ryan S.

    So Jeter’s UZR last year was an acceptable -0.4 last year….his best since 2002 (all data from before 2002 is unavailable) I’m not stupid, I know Jeter needs to get out of the infield sooner rather than later, and I’m also far from a Jeter apologist.

    Can someone explain to me how Jeter was only slightly below average defensively last year? Is this just an anomaly for which there is no reason to expect it would repeat itself?

    • MattG

      For a consistent player, Jeter is amazingly inconsistent in all facets of his game. This is just my gut, but I expect to see Jeter have an MVP caliber offensive season (.400/.480–40 2B), with a low-error total that will get him GG votes. I also think his UZR will fall to new depths.

  • ‘The’ Steve

    Here’s a question for the anti-Gardner folks. Some question his ability to get on base enough, which is fair. But you’ll look at Jason Giambi with his .373 OBP and think that’s preferable.

    If Jason Giambi gets on base at a .373 rate and Brett Gardner gets on base at a .283 rate, who’s more likely to score?

    Lets break it down.

    Giambi had 565 PAs and scored 68 runs. Subtract the times he scored via HR (32) since were discussing scoring by getting on base. That leaves you with 36 runs scored in 565 PAs.

    1 every 15.7 PAs

    Brett Gardner scored 18 runs in 141 PAs

    1 every 7.83 PAs.

    Speed does matter. When Giambi’s on 2nd, he’s not in scoring position for all intents and purposes. When Gardner gets on 1B, he’s a threat to steal 2nd, and then scores on a single almost every time he’s there. That not only adds up over the course of a season, it adds up to a run in every other game he plays. And don’t forget, these numbers include Gardner’s (typical) slow start.

    • Ryan S.

      Small sample size, but I like your point, and to add to it, the threat of having a speedster on base adds positive intangible effects. It makes the pitcher focus on the guy on base and less on the batter. It increases the chances of the defense making an error (such as a throwing error should he try to steal a base). He’s likelier to beat out a double play. Stuff like that.

    • keith

      this is so very flawed

      • inman

        how about somewhat flawed ?

        • ‘The’ Steve

          Its not perfect, but the overall point still stands.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      What about all the times he pinch ran? He scored runs then, and he was on base through no fault of his own.

      • ‘The’ Steve

        There’s that, plus Giambi’s HR’s count toward his OBP. Its not perfect, but the overall point still stands. Let me put in another way.

        Giambi walked 76 times and had 113 hits, putting him on base 189 times. Subtract the 32 HR’s from that and he was either on 1B or 2B 157 times. The 36 (non HR) runs scored means he scored once every 4.36 times he got on base.

        Gardner drew 8 BBs and had 29 Hits, giving him a total of 37 times on base, scoring 18 runs. Which means Gardner scored once every 2.05 times he was on base.

        The point being, when Gardner gets on base, he scores at a very high rate. Giambi has to get on base twice as much to score as often. It also shows that OBP doesn’t always translate to runs scored equally with different types of players.

    • steve (different one)

      subtract his HRs? seriously?

      • ‘The’ Steve

        Read the question again. Try it slowly.

        • steve (different one)

          hitting a HR counts as “getting on base”.

          that is part of Giambi’s OBP.

          you are PENALIZING Giambi for hitting HRs.

          snark all you want, your methodology is wrong.

        • Steve H

          Why are we discussing scoring by “getting on base?” Should we also subtract the times he walked and the person behind him hit a HR because Giambi didn’t have to run around the bases. Extremely flawed. When you are at the plate, you can either make and out or not. No matter what else anyone brings to the table, if you are making outs 71% of the time, you’re worse than Willy Taveras. Giambi > Taveras.

        • steve (different one)

          Giambi had 565 PAs and scored 68 runs. Subtract the times he scored via HR (32) since were discussing scoring by getting on base. That leaves you with 36 runs scored in 565 PAs.

          also, you are subtracting his HRs from the numerator without subtracting those PA’s from the denominator.

          • ‘The’ Steve

            Hey, there’s only so much math I’m willing to do. Gardner still scores twice as often as Giambi does when on base, no matter how you slice it.

            • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

              You took a simplified look at it though. You have to consider where Gardner batted (usually 9th or 1st, so the big guys were up after him) and where Giambi hit (5th, so he was followed most of the year by Cano, Molina, etc).

              I understand what you’re trying to say, and yes, it’s pretty obvious that Gardner’s speed allows him to score more runs once he’s on base, but twice as much solely because of his legs? Not bloody likely.

              • ‘The’ Steve

                No doubt. Again, there’s only so much math I’m willing to do and I concede that its not perfect, but the overall point that Gardner is far more likely to score stands. Forgetting numbers, I’ll make the point even more simply.

                When Gardner gets on First, he can score with the benefit of one base hit. (BB-SB-1B)

                When Giambi’s at First base, he often needs 3 base hits to score, or two with one of them being a double. That’s a lot to ask of your lineup, whoever is hitting behind him.

                I understand that’s not Giambi’s game, and he’s supposed to make up for it with his power. And that runs scored are a function of the guys who hit behind you. But it also shows just how efficient Gardner can be at generating runs off seemingly very little production. And how useless Giambi is when he’s not hitting HRs.

    • MattG

      There are scads of issues with this math:

      1. I’ve got Gardner with 127 ABs in 42 games, with 8 BBs. What’s more, I see 13 steals, while being on base just 37 times (by hit or walk). This makes me think some of those runs scored were as a pinch runner. Maybe several. I don’t know an easy way to look this up.

      2. I don’t see how you can subtract the HRs. Seems to me, Giambi was in scoring position 32 times while batting last year. Gardner: zero. Driving yourself in has quite a bit of value.

      3. Gardner has zero GiDP. This is a strength, but in this analysis, it begs to consider those runners that he forced at second base. Giambi had just 6 GiDP, therefore in many instances, in can be assumed that although Giambi himself did not score, his .373 OBP help the runners already on base to score.

      Really, all you need to look at is RC/game. Giambi, 7. Gardner, 3.4. Speed is nice. It’s a lot nicer when it’s not accompanied by a .283 OBP.

      • ‘The’ Steve

        OK, Here’s the question again.

        “If Jason Giambi gets on base at a .373 rate and Brett Gardner gets on base at a .283 rate, who’s more likely to score?”

        • MattG

          Well, then the question might as well be Barry Bonds and Joey Gathright. In every instance, the faster guy is more likely to score (everything else being equal). I think it’s pretty obvious what is the real intent of the question.

          • ‘The’ Steve

            “I think it’s pretty obvious what is the real intent of the question.”

            That Gardner scores runs more often when he gets on base then Giambi does. Twice as often.

            If you think its anything more than that, you should reread the question posed.

            • Steve H

              At what point do you factor in who is hitting behind them? Marvin Bernard scored 61 runs in 75 games leading off in 2001 despite a .322 OBP. He only had 9 HR’s so they didn’t weight heavily. What he did have was Barry frigging Bonds knocking him in every time he was on base.

            • MattG

              You know, I don’t think I am interested in that question. The way the question is posed, the names of the players are irrelevant. The names could’ve been Speedy Gonzalez and Dick Dasterdly. I think I can understand that a faster runner might steal a base and move closer to home, or take an extra base on a hit, etc.

              What I don’t understand is why this fascinates you. 9 Brett Gardners score 3.4 runs per game (I’m surprised it’s that high). 9 Jason Giambis score 7. So when they are in the batter’s box, it’s Giambi that is twice as likely to score.

              • D.B.H.O.F. p.k.a The Last Don

                “9 Brett Gardners score 3.4 runs per game (I’m surprised it’s that high). 9 Jason Giambis score 7. So when they are in the batter’s box, it’s Giambi that is twice as likely to score.”

                If you had 9 Giambis, at least 7 would be hurt at all times and the other 2 would fail their respective drug tests. Not to mention that 9 guys that could not field their position as well as I could (or I am willing to be quite a few other people that post here) would do to your runs allowed.

                I know for a fact I can play better 1st than Giambi can. I also know that I can not play CF as well as anybody who has played the OF in MLB in the last hand full of years outside of Rickey Ledee.

                Giambi is terrible at most things on a MLB diamond, and I am glad he will not be be clogging up a roster spot on this team, this year.

        • Steve H

          Who’s hitting behind them? Cano/Cabrera/Molina, etc? No wonder Giambi didn’t score many runs after getting on base.

          • ‘The’ Steve

            Fair point, but doesn’t account for Gardner scoring twice as often. Also, Giambi was typically the 4 or 5 hitter, so he would have had Posada, Nady, and Matsui at various points of the season.

        • GG

          I just saw this and like many I seem to be confused but Im gonna say Giambi if your factoring his home runs and Gardner if your not counting those…Giambi doesnt goaround the bases a lot especially if you factor in he might get lifted in the case of the run being important; AND Gardner might be the guy to run for him

          • GG

            it just makes no sense to exclude the homeruns

          • MattG

            Hah! That’s right–how many of those runs where Gardner running for Giambi? That’s funny.

            • inman

              they should’ve just had giambi hit and have gardner stand behind him and run once the ball was struck

        • MattG

          I think the question is:

          “If Jason Giambi gets on base at a .373 rate and Brett Gardner gets on base at a .283 rate, who’s more likely to score [while in the batter's box]?”

          Even if their slugging percentages were equal, the answer would be Jason Giambi, and by a lot.

          • ‘The’ Steve

            Not while in the batters box, once they’re on base. I thought I made that pretty clear, but if not then maybe that’s our problem.

    • D.B.H.O.F. p.k.a The Last Don

      I agree with the general idea I think you are trying to get across. If the kid can hit 260 to 270, play superb OF, be a terror on the basepaths, bunt, move runners, be a pain in the side of the other team I would love to have him in CF. We could really use a young player like that. If he could do all that and hit better than I hope, I will be ecstatic.

  • inman

    anyone just see the hit on espn ?

  • steve (different one)

    you guys should read this article:

    http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/ichiro.htm

    it breaks down all the extra bases that Ichiro’s speed allowed him to take in 2001.

    Ichiro was on base WAY more times than Gardner will ever be and his speed didn’t have nearly the effect that you might think.

    Gardner is going to have to get on base to be a good player. it’s that simple. none of this other stuff like forcing errors or beating out DPs happens frequently enough for it to matter all that much.

    • MattG

      Yeah, I remember reading an analysis of Rickey Henderson’s 130 steal season once. I wish I could post to it, but, anyway–as I remember it, the author looked at every boxscore, and concluded that Rickey scored 18 more times because of his steals that season. That’s it. He scored 119 runs, and he would’ve scored 101 if he never stole a single base.

      This in 1982, when there was significantly less power and offense. I imagine in the current climate, that figure might be 12-14 runs.

      • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

        In Baseball Between the Numbers (fantastic book) by the BP guys, they said that after you factored in Rickey’s CS that year, he only added about 2.2 runs of total offense to the A’s that year.

    • D.B.H.O.F. p.k.a The Last Don

      “Gardner is going to have to get on base to be a good player.”

      Agreed.

      “none of this other stuff like forcing errors or beating out DPs happens frequently enough for it to matter all that much.”

      This is where I think you are wrong. This whole “win share” stuff is a joke to me because of stuff like this. If we win games we would not have because of “forcing errors or beating out DPs”, even if it is only one, or two of them they might be what this team needs to keep it from being a team of Fortune 500 sit around and wait for their check type of team. Again, I can not stress this enough to folks on here but the game is NOT played on paper. Everything that happens can have effect on things that can not be quantified. And that really is the beauty of sport, especially baseball.

      • Ryan S.

        As fun and informative as advanced statistics can be, I do only trust them to a certain extent. Sometimes common baseball sense and the hard numbers collide – things like protection in a lineup or having a speedy guy on the bases who can beat out a DP – they’re important intangibles that do exist. They’re taken for granted as parts of the game, and we see random factors like these come into play in every baseball game we watch.

        Somewhere between Bill James and Joe Morgan (and close to Keith Law’s house), is reality.

      • steve (different one)

        If we win games we would not have because of “forcing errors or beating out DPs”, even if it is only one, or two of them they might be what this team needs to keep it from being a team of Fortune 500 sit around and wait for their check type of team.

        yes, but you are completely ignoring the COST of winning that extra game or two.

        if Gardner is only getting on base at a .300-.320 clip, he is costing the team wins elsewhere.

        he may win an extra game here and there with his speed, but all of those other outs he used up HURT the team and help to lose other games that a player with a higher OBP would have helped win. we just don’t REMEMBER those other games.

        i’ll say it again: Gardner has to get on base to be a good player.

        he can score more frequently than anyone on the team ONCE he is on base, and that is only going to be a NET BENEFIT if he is getting on base at a high enough rate.

        you can’t steal first base. there is a reason that is a cliche. it’s because it’s true.

        i love Gardner’s defense. if he can post a .350 OBP, he can be the CFer until Jackson is ready. if he posts a .320 OBP, he’s just not very valuable.

        • Ryan S.

          .320 OBP in the 9 hole? Not that its awesome, but it could be worse. Pretty damn sure a .320 OBP guy as the #9 hitter in our lineup would be a noticeable improvement over what we had last year, plus Gardner would have more value once he’s actually on base due to his speed.

          Random piece of info: Nady had a .320 OBP as a Yankee last year.

  • GG

    Personally, I cant wait to see Joba throw at Youl again

    • D.B.H.O.F. p.k.a The Last Don

      Yeah me too. I am not a fan of Youk. He is really annoying, but one of the reasons he is a heck of a ballplayer. Dude is built like Mr Potato Head, but plays a mean game of baseball.

  • http://26ncounting.blogspot.com VO

    Does anyone have any tips on how to get a blog some views?

    • inman

      have the big 3 guest blog for you.

      • http://26ncounting.blogspot.com VO

        why in the world would kevin garnett, paul pierce, or ray allen ever guest blog for me

        • A.D.

          I think he meant the 3 that run this blog

          • The Evil Empire

            I thought he meant the unemployed workers of GM Ford and Chrysler.
            (= o)

    • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

      Honestly, posting here has helped me a lot (I think my blog has gotten a lot more views since I’ve started) because of the whole name/link thing. Just try getting it out there as much as possible whether that’s sending it to friends, family, etc. Also, getting other blogs to link to yours helps.

    • D.B.H.O.F. p.k.a The Last Don

      Use lots of stats that are silly but are tied in to a guy who wrote a book that was published by a company that sell 20 books a year and makes them out of recycled polystyrene.

      If that does not work… pie charts. Lots and lots of pie charts.

  • Old Ranger

    Gosh damn, people talking about a guy that can’t hit, can’t walk and can’t hit HRs.
    What happened, did some of you realize that Brett (even without HR power) could possibly be a help to this club in 2009…if given a chance?
    Just joking…
    The potential is there, the very knowledgeable posts were very good reading, both pro and con. Which ever way things turn out in CF it should be very interesting. I think by now you know how I feel about the kid in CF, very instinctive player with a lot to offer the team. Also, has some draw backs, the big one is power, although that has improved a little. He honestly reminds me of a much younger Johnny but, with more speed and less power.
    He has something this team has not had in a long time, speed and a unwillingness to give up anything to the other team. Hopefully he will make a difference in the way this team goes about their business.

    • GG

      snaps, Im also all about giving the kid his chance

  • GG

    Rex Ryan is such a cool name, whats rex short for?

    • D.B.H.O.F. p.k.a The Last Don

      Rexford or Rexter I think.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Joseph P.

      Rex is a stand alone name. Means “king” in Latin. (Hence, Oedipus Rex)

  • The Evil Empire

    Why does everyone’s lineup card show Gardner over Swisher in CF?!

    • Old Ranger

      Because Swesher is nowhere near the defensive CF Brett is. Because Brett COULD end up being a very good player for this team (even lead-off hitter) but, we will never know unless we give him a shot. If he flops, send him down.

      Also, Swisher doesn’t like CF at all. Playing a position one has to work hard at can have an adverse effect on ones’ hitting.