The all-time leaders in plate appearances per strikeout

Giants may but interested, but Yanks pressing hard for CC
Sheets to the wind

In our lengthy discussion of Adam Dunn, one topic his detractors hit on hard was strikeouts. As in, he racks them up. He’s been in the top 10 in strikeouts for the past five years, leading the league in 2004, 05, and 06. But good players strike out, right? Does A-Rod not rack up 130 or so strikeouts a year? What’s another 30 or 40?

Yes, good players strike out. But do they strike out that often? Take a look at the all-time leaders in strikeouts. Certainly more good players up there than bad ones (damn you, Dave Kingman). That’s not really fair, though. A more telling list would be strikeout percentage. Unfortunately, the only readily available stat is lowest strikeout percentage. Not useful for our purposes, but interesting because you won’t find many modern players on the list.

So I went over to B-Ref’s Play Index — or, more accurately, Ben went to the PI. The data wasn’t readily available, but I had him put it in a spreadsheet, because I hate baseball. You can view it here. No, the names there aren’t quite as inspiring as the names on the top raw career strikeouts. And lookey there: Adam Dunn is fourth all-time, sandwiched between Pete Incaviglia and Preston Wilson.

Yet is Dunn at all like the players surrounding him? Rob Deer didn’t have nearly as much power and didn’t take as many walks; ditto Jose Hernandez; Incaviglia was never much better than mediocre; there has never been a reason to throw Preston Wilson a strike. If anything, he seems a little bit like Jay Buhner, and even then he didn’t take a walk like Dunn.

I think this is a long way of saying that strikeouts by themselves don’t mean too much. Different players have different games. Some guys, especially those that hit for a lot of power, are going to swing and miss a good deal. It’s when they bring other skills to the table, like a good eye and a power stroke, that we can forgive the strikeouts. It’s when they’re pretty much worthless — looking at you, Mr. Deer — that they’re a major issue.

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Giants may but interested, but Yanks pressing hard for CC
Sheets to the wind
  • pat

    the spreadsheet says i dont have permission to access the document.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      pwned.

      • pat

        thanks for your input there bud…jk

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Joseph P.

      Try it now.

      • pat

        works now thanks

  • E-ROC

    I’ve already been sold on Adam Dunn. This column just reinforces that. Dunn may even reduce his strikeouts while being in the Yanks lineup.

    • Chris C.

      “I’ve already been sold on Adam Dunn. This column just reinforces that. Dunn may even reduce his strikeouts while being in the Yanks lineup.”

      I don’t really understand why you think Dunn would strike out LESS with the Yankees, since guys like AROD, Abreu, Giambi, and Damon have all struck out here at the same rate or more than they did at their previous stops.
      Dunn would be the exception if he came here and struck out less.

  • http://jobatheheat jobatheheat

    You guys are the only reason espn linked Sheete to us. Start preaching about dunn. Im sold . Send the donation basket this way. Can I get a A-MEN

  • Ed

    Fun with stats: in the past 3 seasons alone Dunn has struck out 11% more times than Mattingly did in his entire career.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      And Dunn has hit 25.2% more homers in 2,972 fewer plate appearances.

      • Ed

        Spoilsport. I said “fun with stats”, not “let’s use solid arguments”.

        • Chip

          More fun with stats: Adam Dunn has a career SB% of 75.6% while Don Mattingley had 60.9%

          WHO SAYS HE’S A BASE-CLOGGER?!?

          • Chip

            To be honest with you, that stat really surprised me. I didn’t realize that Dunn was actually at least average speed once upon a time

          • Ed

            I noticed that one too… Dunn’s got 59 steals. The guy knows how to get his uniform dirty. That’s all you need to know to be sure that he knows how to win games.

            • Ron

              **The guy knows how to get his uniform dirty.**

              High grit factor.

    • Scall

      Here, by way of contrast, some career stats: Seasons: 13; AB: 6821; SO: 369; SO/Yr: 28.4. And, to go with the 369 career SO, in case you’ve not yet guessed, career HR 369.
      Where have you gone, indeed?

    • DonnieBaseballHallofFame

      Not very comparable players in any respect. But I know you were just dropping some random info.

      On another note I not a very big fan of guys who strike out a lot. I would like to see a stat made (maybe there already is one) that combines in some way strike outs and hitting into double plays.

      As much as I like Jeter man the first half he seemed like he was hitting into double plays left and right killing a ton of potential big innings. A-Rod seemed to hit into a ton of double plays last year as well.

      How is Dunn regarding hitting into double plays?

      • Eric

        He’s never grounded into more than 12. As for GIDPs: here are the top five GIDP guys in history:

        1. Cal Ripken
        2. Hank Aaron
        3. Yaz
        4. Dave Winfield
        5. Eddie Murray

        So, five HOFers.

        The active list:

        1. Pudge
        2. Manny
        3. Piazza
        4. Sheff/Frank Thomas
        6. Jeff Kent
        7. Vlad

        So that’s at least 6 HOFers.

        Among the 2008 leaders
        Vlad (130 OPS+)
        Mags (127 OPS+)
        Mauer (137 OPS+)
        Morneau (137 OPS+)

        Yeah grounding into DPs ain’t really too detrimental.

        Why would there be a stat combining Ks and GIDPs? They have virtually nothing to do with each other. How would you propose such a stat work?

        And while I understand your aversion to not liking high-strikeout guys, it’s pretty much been proved in and out that high Ks are not that damning when combined with a good eye and good power, like in Adam Dunn, Ryan Howard, Alex Rodriguez, etc.

        • Eric

          As for the results of Ks and GIDPs, they come to life in WPA data, so I guess there’s kind of already a stat for it if you want to make that stretch.

          • DonnieBaseballHallofFame

            Thanks for all the info. As for the list of the DP guys, it is funny because without having all sorts of statistical data to back it up about half of those guys would be on my all time most over rated list.

    • Chris C.

      Listen……..I love Mattingly, but if your gonna start picking your stats to pimp, you should really be fair and note how much more Dunn draws bases on balls than Mattingly, or reaches base in general.

      I love the fact that Mattingly was a great contact hitter………but it would have been nice if he reached base more often by other means outside of getting hits.

      • DonnieBaseballHallofFame

        It also would have been nice if Donnie had ANYBODY hitting after him the last few years of his career. But comparing Donnie and Dunn is apples and oranges.

  • Brooklyn Ed

    the short right porch will do Dunn good. =D

  • christopher

    The only thing I see frustrating us about Dunn is striking out with a guy on 3rd and 2 outs, or not getting a runner over, but we have dealt with that with giambi foreer and even though he didnt K as much Sheffield had to be the all-time worst player at moving a runner to 3rd with no outs – talk about someone only hitting for the fences.

    I would be really interesting, if someone could get it, to see Dunn’s career stats with a man on 3rd less than 2 outs because that is the worst thing of a guy who strikes out a lot.

    There is also the possibility that as he ages, or even moves to a team in contention, that he improves on his situational hitting

    Would appreciate it if one of you stat junkies could get the man on 3rd less than 2 outs and career w/ RISP and if they have it career OBP with RISP

    • pat
      • christopher

        thanks

    • pat

      u dont have to be a stat junkie to google “adam dunn stats”

    • whozat

      “The only thing I see frustrating us about Dunn is striking out with a guy on 3rd and 2 outs”

      Would this be any worse than a scrappy, Eckensteinian grounder to 2B?

      “I would be really interesting, if someone could get it, to see Dunn’s career stats with a man on 3rd less than 2 outs because that is the worst thing of a guy who strikes out a lot.”

      All I really care about is that, after 40% of Dunn’s ABs, there will be the same number of outs as when Dunn stepped to the plate. 40-50 times a season, there will be at least one more run on the board. Many of the other times that he puts the bat on the ball, not only will the run score, but he’d probably be on second, waiting for ARod or Matsui to drive him in.

      • christopher

        hey – I have been pro-dunn all along…You dont have to convince me to get him I have been saying I loved the guy since October.

        It is just something that we will have to deal with because it will happen often, but his pros absolutly outweigh his cons

      • Chris C.

        “The only thing I see frustrating us about Dunn is striking out with a guy on 3rd and 2 outs

        It would be annoying if there were less than two outs, but what does it matter how he gets out when it ends the inning?
        If it makes you happier, just pretend he ended the inning with a long flyout to the warning track.

    • Ed

      “I would be really interesting, if someone could get it, to see Dunn’s career stats with a man on 3rd less than 2 outs because that is the worst thing of a guy who strikes out a lot.”

      .269/.410/.532, 12 HR, 137 RBI, 186 AB

      Baseball Reference is your friend.

      • christopher

        above his career average. very good sign

  • christopher

    Sosa, Thome and especially Canseco jump out at me when looking at that list,

    While earlier in his career he hit for a good average, Canseco seems to ne a pretty fair comp

  • christopher

    would love to see the same chart with walks included. I assume their is a plate appearance cut-off because I didnt see Mr. Howard on the list

  • Tooch

    If the Yanks sign Sabathia, some say they might pursue a trade for Cameron for CF. If they add both Dunn and Cameron, that’s #4 and #10 on this list. Yikes, that would be scary…

    • christopher

      and unlike dunn, aside from the occasional homer he brings little to the table at the plate.

      If they get Dunn I could see them sticking with gardner and letting him play out there maybe pursuing someone at the allstar break if he doesnt work out.
      Getting Dunn would allow the team to carry gardner and see if he can work out. All the more reason to acquire him. I would like to see Brett get a lot of playing time and a chance to prove himself. With the entire outfield being free agents, it would be good to know what we have in brett.

      If the offernse is struggling, they will be a lot less likely to stick it out should brett struggle early on. I dont want to see a trade made out of panic in June or July

      • Tooch

        I agree, I’d like to see Brett Gardner get a shot. My childish inner-self wants to believe that he can be an unexpected feel-good story as the No. 9 batter and CF for this team. Other than HRs, I can’t imagine Mike Cameron would be that much better. Definitely not $15M better…

        Dunn over Cameron any day in my book.

    • Chris C.

      “If the Yanks sign Sabathia, some say they might pursue a trade for Cameron for CF.”

      Oh, I believe it. That would be on par with the way Brian Cashman operates…………for every positive move he makes for the Yankees, he soonafter follows it up with a head-scratcher.
      It’s like he gets all excited and his adrenaline gets pumping, causing him to do something stupid and impulsive.

  • http://jobatheheat jobatheheat

    Please no trade for Cameron. Rather give up Cano for Kemp . I dont want to give up Cano. I think he learned from last year and probaly is gona hit 30 hr this year. The mans gona be a straight beast at the plate.

    • pat

      i agree, why open a hole at 2nd to fill a hole at one of the few positions we actually have a solid prospect lined up for? I said this months ago and nomaas just said it today but id rather trade for a young corner of like delmon young.

      • http://incumbentgm.wordpress.com Joltin’ Joe

        For who? Hughes? Why would that make any more sense?

        • pat

          if he could be had on the cheap for something like ipk and coke you gotta look into it. Obviously anything more than that is too much but it’s worth a look.

          • Chip

            If they get Delmon Young for IPK and Coke, I’ll eat TSJC’s uncooked burrito

          • Chris C.

            “if he could be had on the cheap for something like ipk and coke you gotta look into it.”

            I don’t think that’s very cheap at all. Do you know how many scouts around the league had been raving about the emergence of Phil Coke last season? Pittsburgh was begging for the guy to be included in the Nady/Marte deal, but the Yankees refused.
            Cheap, my ass! The Yankees love this guy, and with good reason.

      • whozat

        Yeah, a guy with attitude problems that swings at everything, doesn’t walk AND hasn’t shown even Cano’s power. Sounds like a great choice for RF.

        • pat

          He basically had the same season cano had at age 22 with a little bit less power. Obviously not ideal for a RF but he could be a great buy low candidate if the yankees think theres something they can fix in his swing. He hit for good power and average in the minors. It’s at least worth a look thats all im saying. As for the whole bat throwing thing yea I cant really defend that and take it for what it’s worth but Ron Gardenhire has said he was a model citizen all year.

          cano .297 .320 .458 14 hr 106 ops+
          young .290 .336 .405 10hr 102 ops+

          • Chip

            I hear the Twins had another guy back in 2002 that had a problem with his swing. They gave up on him and I hear he plays for somebody else now

            • Bruno

              who?

              • kenthadley

                David Ortiz

        • steve (different one)

          whozat, are you seriously saying you wouldn’t take a shot at Young if the price were right?

          he’s only 22 years old.

          of course, i doubt the “price would be right”. the Twins don’t match up well with the Yankees.

      • christopher

        Delmon young over hermida?

        May have more talent, but he is the all time head case. Big reason why the rays dealt him – at the time it looked as though the Twins got the better of the deal, but the fans down here in Tampa were saying addition by subtraction. that is a big red flag.

    • http://incumbentgm.wordpress.com Joltin’ Joe

      Really?

    • Chris C.

      “Please no trade for Cameron. Rather give up Cano for Kemp.”

      What the heck is so great about Kemp??? I keep hearing this, and I just don’t get it. He strikes out a ton, rarely walks, is not a big OBP guy, and had an OPS under 8.00.
      This is the guy you want to acquire in exchange for your starting 2nd baseman?

      “I dont want to give up Cano. I think he learned from last year and probaly is gona hit 30 hr this year. The mans gona be a straight beast at the plate.”

      Whoa…….maybe I’m halucinating. Did you just totally negate yourself in the same paragraph?

  • http://jobatheheat jobatheheat

    I dont want to give up Cano just pointing out how much i dont want Cameron. Worse case you pick up Orlando for like nothing nd have Kemp in the OF.

    • christopher

      worst case scenario is last year was an aberation and Cano continues to develop from his 2007 season. You would be losing a great offesive force at 2B, arguably tougher to find than one in center

  • http://incumbentgm.wordpress.com Joltin’ Joe

    Just thinking, if we pick up Dunn, he becomes the RF assuming Matsui sticks around. Is Nady a solid piece for another player? Wouldn’t make sense for the Giants’ SPs, but with a salary in the 3-6 million range, he’s got to be worth something.

    • christopher

      i dont think you can count on Matsui to stay healthy. I would rather see them deal Matsui being that he and dunn are both lefties. the return would be greater for nady and matsui when healthy is a better hitter, but i thnk nady is part of their long term plan. i doubt matsui is

      • http://incumbentgm.wordpress.com Joltin’ Joe

        Yeah, 100 games / 400 PAs would be terrific. But, in a trade, he isn’t worth more than some scrappers. So why not hold on to him? Nady, on the other hand, has a controllable salary, youth, versatility, and is entering his prime. He may also be a Type B or something after the season is out (pure guess). Worth shopping around for sure.

        • christopher

          Why trade Nady? What will you get for him. Sure he has value, but he is much more valuable as the only young and experienced outfielder on the team – not to mention that lefties kill the yankees. I dont want to give up a good right handed bat especially if I am counting on Matsui playing in 100 games

          • http://incumbentgm.wordpress.com Joltin’ Joe

            Not the same situation, and Omar’s ‘genius’ definitely kicked in, but the Church/Schneider for Milledge deal could be a comparalbe. Church and Nady are fairly similar players. Then again, I hardly expect another GM to make a stupid trade like that.

    • whozat

      “Just thinking, if we pick up Dunn, he becomes the RF assuming Matsui sticks around”

      I don’t think so. I think you’ll see these:

      DH Matsui
      1B Dunn
      LF Damon
      CF Gardner/Melky
      RF Nady

      DH Matsui
      1B Dunn
      LF Damon
      CF Gardner/Melky
      RF Swish

      DH Matsui
      1B Swish
      LF Damon
      CF Gardner/Melky
      RF Nady

      DH Matsui
      1B Swish
      LF Dunn
      CF Damon (Wang days, with late-inning switch to above)
      RF Nady

      DH Dunn
      1B Swish
      LF Damon
      CF Gardner/Melky
      RF Nady

      Also, Nady’s played 1B some in his career. So there’s that.

      • http://incumbentgm.wordpress.com Joltin’ Joe

        Yeah, but Dunn is a terrible 1B (look it up) and you can’t just bench Matsui unless he’s playing badly.

      • christopher

        you can rotate the players in and out between DH outfield and first base and keep guys fresh. The return we would get for trading Nady is not worth what he means to this team next year and most likely inthe years going further.

        Matsui is gone after this year – they will not resign him

        • http://incumbentgm.wordpress.com Joltin’ Joe

          True, he is valuable as a healthy defender / vs. LHP guy, but I also said it’s worth looking into, not a necessity that he be traded.

        • http://incumbentgm.wordpress.com Joltin’ Joe

          And Matsui’s impending free agency has nothing to do with my wish of shopping around Nady – he too has only one arb year left, and Damon is in his final contract year. So that’s three guys heading out the door, might make sense to trade one of the three if the return makes sense.

      • Chip

        I completely agree except that I’d put Dunn in the smaller RF than let him patrol that huge LF when Damon is manning center

        • http://incumbentgm.wordpress.com Joltin’ Joe

          Exactly my thoughts, and its well known that an OF’s arm is not nearly as valuable as range, so I could care less if his arm sucks.

          • Chris C.

            “Exactly my thoughts, and its well known that an OF’s arm is not nearly as valuable as range, so I could care less if his arm sucks.”

            Or, you could put Brett Gardner out there and not have to worry about either.
            But if you don’t like the thought of that, have fun watching shallow fly balls turn into sacrifice flies all season.

    • whozat

      Also, Dunn knows who the Yanks have under contract…he might not want to come here, if he thinks he’ll be crunched for playing time, or forced to 1B — if he, indeed, doesn’t want to play there.

      • http://incumbentgm.wordpress.com Joltin’ Joe

        Exactly ^

      • http://jobatheheat jobatheheat

        Dunn would jump at the chance to play on a contending team. Hes never had that chance . To care more than the regular season. Plus he woulldnt be our #1 guy. Maybe that will take some pressure off. He like us knows we have some openings next year and will probaly work his ass off just to make sure he has a big part in the yankees future. Of course this is all speculation.

        • DonnieBaseballHallofFame

          D-Backs were not a contending team last year? Contending team with a much easier path towards the WS, and much better pitching????

    • christopher

      what starting pitcher? do you think you will get Cain for Nady?

      and sabea has said he is not looking for outfielders. why would he want nady

      • http://incumbentgm.wordpress.com Joltin’ Joe

        Hence the phrase, “Wouldn’t make sense for the Giants’ SPs”.

  • http://incumbentgm.wordpress.com Joltin’ Joe

    I know interrivalry trades are ‘forbidden’ but what about the Mets? They could use him.

    • http://incumbentgm.wordpress.com Joltin’ Joe

      Jon Niese — hehe

  • http://jobatheheat jobatheheat

    What about Kenedy,Melky Some relief pitching for Kemp. Maybe Jackson. Even with Jackson included Iwould do it . Sign me up. Well get Holliday next year. What do you think. They need starters and who knows the nl might be good for Kenedy.

    • http://incumbentgm.wordpress.com Joltin’ Joe

      Why include Jackson – Kemp may be in the bigs and talented, but why make a trade for a LF you didn’t develop yourself when you have a younger, cheaper, CF who could be ready in another season or so? IPK is not even worth trading at this point, unless some other club is willing to give up fair value for him. And Melky — oh Melky — he’s unofficially our 5th outfielder / AAA CF if we sign even ONE outfielder.

      • http://incumbentgm.wordpress.com Joltin’ Joe

        That honestly wouldn’t make sense for LAD either, swapping a known quantity for a guy with potentially better range and more of a true CFer.

      • http://jobatheheat jobatheheat

        Because Id rather trade all them then trade Cano straight up.

        • http://incumbentgm.wordpress.com Joltin’ Joe

          Other than AJax, there’s really no reason for LAD to be interested. They have several big time pitching prospects already. We have little to give up positionally (prospects). Joe and Mike mentioned in the podcast that Brad Suttle could be a piece, but he’s so far away that he wouldn’t be enough. Makes more sense to wait on AJax IMO.

    • Chip

      Maybe they’ll throw in Billingsley, Kershaw, Loney, Martin and DeWitt too!

      There’s no way the Yankees make this trade, Melky is far too valuable to their future to be given up for an unknown like Kemp

      • http://incumbentgm.wordpress.com Joltin’ Joe

        If only those Russ Martin rumors a few weeks back were true – I would have loved to get him in ‘stripes. Took a ton of walks, steals, hits for a solid average, and is developing his power — not to mention solid skills on D. Up-the-middle types are my thing, HaHa.

        • Chip

          And then we could trade Posada to the same team willing to take on Mike Lowell’s salary!

          I think we should make a team called the Washington Salary Dumpers, anybody not wanted by the rest of the teams due to contract concerns could just be sent to that team and have it subsidized by the government!

          C – Varitek ~10M (or more)
          1B – Todd Helton 16.6M
          2B – Brandon Phillips 4.75M
          SS – Miguel Tejada 13M
          3B – Mike Lowell 12M
          LF – Hideki Matsui 13M
          CF – Andrew Jones 15M
          RF – Carlos Lee 18.5M

          SP – Barry Zito 18.5M
          SP – Jason Schmidt 12M
          SP – Kevin Millwood 8.5M
          SP – Vicente Padilla 12M
          SP – Carlos Silva 11M

          RP – Denny Baez 5.5M
          RP – Octavio Dotel 6M
          RP – Scott Linebrink 4.5M
          RP – Jamie Walker 4.5M

          I’m sure I could go on and make a full bullpen and a bench but that team wouldn’t even be close to good. I’d love to see all the huge fly balls that Zito would give up that Matsui/Jones/Lee couldn’t ever get to in their wheelchairs. The sad part? They’d still be under the Yankees salary with only 185.35M (of course the Yankees actually pay mostly GOOD players with their money)

          • A.D.

            At least Carlos Lee can still hit… Juan Pierre & his 10M pinch running salary should be included

    • Chris C.

      “What about Kenedy,Melky Some relief pitching for Kemp. Maybe Jackson. Even with Jackson included Iwould do it”

      No offense, but this is one of the dumbest statements I’ve read in a while.
      Kennedy, Cabrera, a reliever, and Austin Jackson for Kemp???
      That’s the kind of package the Padres would take immidiately for Jake Peavy!

  • Rob

    If there wasn’t one Manuel Aristides Ramirez sitting out there waiting for a contract, I’d say you take a shot at Dunn. But Manny IS there. And recent reports suggest that he may be ripe for the plucking with a two or three-year contract since the Dodgers are hoping he’ll take arbitration. Sure, it will be more dollars but he’s the much better hitter of the two. You can hit Manny behind A-Rod and he’ll do a lot to cover up for the thirdbaseman’s missed opportunities. Dunn, because of the strikeouts but high OBP, you want ahead of A-Rod, like in the three hole.

    Any other year, Dunn makes good sense given the teams needs going forward. But not with such little competition for Manny’s services.

    • Bruno

      Except for the age factor, the fact that Dunn is better in the field, and Posada will probably be DHing next year.

      • Rob

        Sorry, but Jorge is a reason not to sign Teixiera. He’s not a reason to clog up the DH spot for another three years.

        And their differences in the field are very debatable. Manny’s rep is severely hurt by his time in Fenway. As a Dodger he was average. Dunn has consistently been below average, even at 1B.

        The difference in their overall bats and approaches make Manny the better hitter by far. It’s not even close, really.

        Still, if they could find a way to move Matsui or Damon or even Nady or Swisher, I’d say sign BOTH Manny and Dunn. They’re both better than any of the four Yankees and this is the year to stock the OF since Damon and Matsui will headline the 2010 free agent class. That is, things aren’t better next year to replace those two.

        • steve (different one)

          Matt Holliday.

          • Rob

            Is his bat as good as Dunn’s? Right now, that’s dubious until he proves otherwise. And playing 81 games in Oakland isn’t going to help him dispel the Coors effect.

            More problematic is that he’s the Teixeira of next year’s position players. If he posts a .850-.900 OPS this year he could bring a huge contract especially if the economy bounces back a bit.

    • DonnieBaseballHallofFame

      Amen. We have a GREAT need for Manny.

  • dkidd

    anyone know a reds fan? i’m curious what dunn and his weird offensive numbers are like to watch day in and day out. frustrating or fun?

    • Spaceman.Spiff

      My roommate is a Reds fan and he was decidedly anti-Dunn even when he was playing for them. He seems to be a pretty reasonable baseball fan and not a overreactor for the most part. Didn’t seem very happy with Dunn and when he was traded he was actually pretty happy about it.

      • Rob

        I think if you’re counting on Dunn as a run producer, seeing him strike out so often has to be very frustrating. He seems a bit like Abreu actually but without the average even. Fine if you don’t have to count on him and nice to have around as a complementary player. But he won’t be driving in 130 or 140 runs.

        I know i wouldn’t want him in the four or five holes. And that’s where he’s problematic for a lineup. Number 3 is probably right in that he can’t utterly kill a rally, he’ll get on base a bunch for others to drive him in, and his HRs will help bring in somebody.

        Problem is, then you look at his career splits, and he hits the worst at #3 (.803 OPS). He’s better at 4 (.894 OPS) and even a bit better at 5 (.915 OPS). Everything says to put him at 3 but he doesn’t do as well there. So a manager drops him to 4 or 5 and then watches a lot of runners get left on base. Someone tried him at 2 (494 PA) and he did well there (.943 OPS) but then his power seems like a waste so high in the lineup.

        He’s got to be a really frustrating player day after day – to a manager and to fans. I’ll take Manny’s production instead.

        • A.D.

          Just put him at 4, A-Rod at 3, and Nady or Matsui or Posada at 5.

          A-Rod will drive in a ton of runs with Dunn protecting, Dunn will get some protection and get more pitches to hit/pitched carefully to with the other bats coming

          • Rob

            That’s the thing – Dunn doesn’t provide much protection or move runners along as a three outcome guy. Indeed, I imagine pitchers walking A-Rod if Dunn is behind him, especially if they need a K.

            By contrast, no one would walk A-Rod to pitch to Manny. Ever.

            • A.D.

              Sure they could walk A-Rod to get Dunn, and you don’t want to take the bat out of A-Rod’s hand, but while Dunn has a far worse average than A-Rod he gets on at a career clip of .008 less than A-Rod.

              So its almost just as likely Dunn is going to get on base as A-Rod (Dunn has a 10 point higher OBP with men on than A-Rod in his career). Meaning that worse case you might be leaving it up to one of the bats behind Dunn, or alternate scenario that pitcher tries to get ahead after walking A-Rod and the ball is crushed somewhere.

              True as a hitter Manny > Dunn, Manny is going to the Hall, Dunn probably isn’t, but Dunn’s contract demands, and chances that he continues or improves his career numbers because of age are both going to be favorable compared to Manny’s.

              That said, we will all enjoy debating this out only to have the Yanks sign none of these bats

  • Steve

    Sorry, but I’m still not sold on Dunn. A SO isn’t always the same as a hard line drive, his fielding is hideous and little things add up over the course of a long season. Plus, the last thing we need is another LF/DH type. We have Swisher for 1B and he’s a fairly similar player to Dunn.

  • Mike

    What if instead of Dunn, we went after Delmon Young? Young’s value seems to be at a really low point right now and he has all the tools. Could be a good fit in LF if we could find a decent CF to cover the ground. I know we already have matsui and damon, but both are old and starting to break down. Plus, I see no real difference to trading for him as trading for signing Dunn (except for the reduction in K’s…)

    • Bo

      Dunn and his high 3 OBP and Young and his low 3 OBP. Dunn and his 40 homers and Young and his 10.

      Don’t we have enough Melky’s in the lineup?

  • Bo

    They won’t touch Dunn. They want to get more athletic and he doesn’t fit that criteria. And where would he play?

    He would hit 50 homers with the short porch.

  • Joe

    What if we traded Cano and a prospect for Young and Lirano. Then we put Lirano in the pen to take Joba’s role. A win win for both teams.

    I know, then we would have to get a 2b, but I am sure we could find someone (Orlando Hudson?)

    • A.D.

      Liriano is untouchable

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Joseph P.

      “Then we put Lirano in the pen to take Joba’s role.”

      • Joe

        They did not want to bring him back from the minors this past year, plus it seemed like he did not even want to be there. Putting him in Joba’s role as a 8th inning man, would reduce the wear on his arm and probably prevent him from being hurt. I really thought it wasnt that bad…to warrant a head shake…

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Joseph P.

          I still don’t buy that putting a guy in the bullpen reduces wear on the arm. He’s pitching fewer innings, but it’s at max effort.

          Plus, why would you convert a guy like Liriano, who has been a starter his entire life save for a few months in 2006 (same way Santana started in the Twins pen and moved to the rotation)? He’s now been back for a year since TJ. You let him start and see if he can continue his dominance before you move him anywhere.

        • A.D.

          How did he not want to be there? Liriano pitched pretty well last year in the bigs despite being hammered in 3 early starts.

          Twins didn’t want to bring him back from the minors because at first he was still coming back from TJ, then to help keep his service time down, eventually they dumped Livan Hernandez to open up a spot for Liriano.

          Joba’s role… Joba is a starter, and he will be a starter until if & when he proves he cannot start

  • A.D.

    The upside to Dunn’s Ks are he doesn’t GIDP that often.

    Everyone worries the K’s aren’t productive outs, and blah blah blah, realistically the vast majority of outs a player makes are not productive, there are plenty of unproductive outs made to the OF or the infield, at least a K means no RISP.

    On top of that in 2008, Dunn didn’t strike out any more than normal with runners on or RISP. He struck out about 25% of the time normally, 24% RISP, 23% runners on, 24% 2 out RISP, and 24% Late and close. So he doesn’t appear to put more pressure or change his game, strike-outs are just a part of Adam Dunn, just like 40 hrs and an OPS ~900

    • Chris C.

      “Everyone worries the K’s aren’t productive outs, and blah blah blah, realistically the vast majority of outs a player makes are not productive, there are plenty of unproductive outs made to the OF or the infield, at least a K means no RISP.”

      Look, I like Dunn because of the full package he brings in, but there’s no need to sell him on people with bullshit like this.

      When you strike out, you are NEVER moving runners over, and NEVER getting the chance to reach on an error. The average player in the league grounds into about 14 DP’s a season. Dunn grounded into 7 in 2008.
      You think that outweighs the amount of times he might have moved runners over or scored them by making contact more often?
      Stop trying to polish the guy’s turds.

      • A.D.

        I’m not trying to “polish the guy’s terds” all I’m saying is people are going nuts over strikeouts and how he doesn’t make productive outs, when honestly its not like most outs are productive, yes when you strike-out you can’t “make things happen” on the basepaths or anything like that (unless there is a passed ball, then he could reach 1B).

        I get that the guy strikes out, I’m not trying to convince you that Adam Dunn is a productive player, that should be obvious, I was posting to show some perspective on that sometimes there can be benefits on not putting balls in play.

        a nice article showing that OBP more important than POP:
        http://www.hardballtimes.com/m.....tive-outs/

        • Chris C.

          I get that the guy strikes out, I’m not trying to convince you that Adam Dunn is a productive player, that should be obvious, I was posting to show some perspective on that sometimes there can be benefits on not putting balls in play.

          VERY rarely is a strikeout beneficial. Over the course of a season, maybe 5 or 6 of Dunn’s K’s were beneficial because they would have been DP’s.

          The rest of his strikeouts were either unproductive, or had no effect at all. So basically 6 of his 164 K’s spared his ballclub an extra baserunner and out.
          Sorry….you just cannot turn this into a positive.

  • mo mike

    i think you guys are finding any possible way to rationalize your love for dunn. to go ahead and say that strike outs dont account for anything blah blah blah, its just cazy… and you asked if the 40 strike outs he has more than a-rod is a big deal? well when you only get to the plate 500 times a season, yea percentage wise that is a big difference! and arod hits the ball more often and can actually drive people in with-gasp-base hits! listen, i guess you can tell im not one of dunn’s supporters (i loved him when he first came up) but the lengths you all are going to on this blog to rationalize his worth are a little extreme… Personally, I rather abreu and his 20 dingers

    • Eric

      Adam Dunn not only hits more homers than Bobby Abreu but he also gets on base more. He’s also a few years younger. Adam Dunn is better than Bobby Abreu.

  • Chris C.

    “i think you guys are finding any possible way to rationalize your love for dunn.”

    He’s a productive player. Sure he’s got a few warts, but so did everyone in last year’s Yankee lineup. There’s no rationalization needed……..his overall offensive production, when taken as a whole, proves his is productive.

    ” and you asked if the 40 strike outs he has more than a-rod is a big deal? well when you only get to the plate 500 times a season, yea percentage wise that is a big difference! and arod hits the ball more often and can actually drive people in with-gasp-base hits!”

    Yes, his strikeouts are an issue, but I fail to see how Dunn comparing unfavorably to AROD makes him a bad option. 99% of the league compares unfavorably from a production standpoint to AROD.

    “listen, i guess you can tell im not one of dunn’s supporters”

    Nope……couldn’t tell.

    “Personally, I rather abreu and his 20 dingers”

    Yeah, I’d rather have Abreu too. I’d rather have Abreu go elsewhere.

  • Mike

    I remember the days of Paul O’Neil and remember how much he hated to strikeout? Oh yeah K’s are unproductive outs and Dunn is the king!

    Joe DiMaggio = 13 seasons = 369 Ks total or 34 per year…
    Dunn could get that in just two years!!!