Dec
12

Waiting for Godot

By

A.J. Burnett is currently holding what has widely been reported as two five-year offers. The one from the Braves appears to be a few million dollars less than the one from the Yanks, and according to Jon Heyman, a decision is coming soon. Both Peter Abraham and Hal Steinbrenner feel that Burnett will wind up in the Bronx. We’ll have the news when it breaks, but I can’t say right now I’m thrilled about five years of A.J. Burnett.

Categories : Asides, Hot Stove League

122 Comments»

  1. Mister Delaware says:

    I am. Dominant when on, still good when he’s not (ERA under 4.10 in all 7 seasons he’s pitched over 100 innings).

  2. ceciguante says:

    ha, nice title.

    and i agree with you here: i’m unhappy about the idea of burnett for 5. what can we realistically expect from this guy, an average of 4 months on the field each season? for around $16M per? that’s sabathia money! i know he’s good, but no thanks to that….

  3. vincent says:

    i like this move. people need to realize this is the market for pitchers now. IF healthy this rotation is going to be very impressive and intimidating.

  4. A.M. says:

    We only like pitchers with initials in NY apparently…CC AJ JJ hah

  5. Bill says:

    Yea not too excited about Burnett on a 5-year deal at crazy money, but considering the fact that it is likely Burnett or Lowe in that spot I’ll take Burnett and cross my fingers that he’ll stay healthy over Lowe who I just don’t think would be that good here.

    Pettitte and Sheets would be my preferred options for the final two spots when considering all factors (price, performance, etc.)

    • Matt says:

      It’s gonna be one or the other. If Pettitte doesn’t take a pay cut, they’ll probably go on to Sheets. If they don’t like his health…well maybe they go back to Pettitte.

      So:
      CC
      Wang
      Burnett
      Sheets/Pettitte
      Joba/Hughes/fill ins to keep their innings down

      Regardless of who that fourth person is, that’s a pretty good rotation. Now they just need to add a bat.

      For the record, we’re like, totally out of the Tex sweepstakes, right?

      • TheLastClown says:

        No, unless something changed between last night & today, it’s down to us & Boston if he wants to win, and the O’s or Nats if he wants to take a crap shoot

        • Matt says:

          I’ll feel a little better if/when put an offer out there.

          The latest I’ve heard is that Boston is far ahead, the Angels don’t want to give him the bucks, and that Washington and Baltimore have offered serious money.

          • Mike Pop says:

            I hope alot of FA bats get signed soon minus TEx.. So that Angels will find there is no “replacement” and throw so much $$$$ and years at him

  6. Waiting for Godot

    Mighty fine play. I hope that, just like in the play, Godot never comes…

  7. TheLastClown says:

    VLADIMIR:
    A—. What are you insinuating? That we’ve come to the wrong place?
    ESTRAGON:
    He should be here.
    VLADIMIR:
    He didn’t say for sure he’d come.
    ESTRAGON:
    And if he doesn’t come?
    VLADIMIR:
    We’ll come back tomorrow.
    ESTRAGON:
    And then the day after tomorrow.
    VLADIMIR:
    Possibly.
    ESTRAGON:
    And so on.
    VLADIMIR:
    The point is—
    ESTRAGON:
    Until he comes.
    VLADIMIR:
    You’re merciless.

  8. Rob says:

    I can’t say right now I’m thrilled about five years of A.J. Burnett.

    It could be worse. It could be four years of Pavano.

  9. A.D. says:

    At this point everyone is so down on getting Burnett that when he signs, pitches well, and doesn’t spend the full 5 years on the DL everyone should be pleasantly surprised.

    • radnom says:

      Yes, but that wouldn’t justify the signing.

      Lets say there is a 40% chance he lives up to this contract (just a random percentage, bear with me). There is still a decent chance it works out, but if it does that doesn’t immediately make this a good decision.

      If you put down your life savings on a roulette table and happen to win, it doesn’t automatically mean you made the right decision. It is really annoying when people analyze sports this way (not saying you were, just in general).

      • A.D. says:

        wasn’t trying to say its a good decision… not a Burnett fan… just saying we’ve all poised ourselves for the worst.

        • radnom says:

          I know, I wasn’t refering to you. You’re post just got me thinking of all the people saying “well we will see what happens if he stays healthy judge it then blah blah” and that is just wrong.
          If by some miracle he stays healthy and pitches really well that doesn’t mean this was a good decision the same way Pavano’s insane number of injuries didn’t make that signing a bad decision.

      • Mike Pop says:

        Upside>Injury risk is the way I look at it.. 80 mill is alot to gamble with but Im looking forward to seeing AJ pitching for us(IF he signs).. There seems to be something wrong with Sheets cuz the Yanks have shyed away from him.. Also I do enjoy watching AJ pitch and Im a big fan as you know

      • TheLastClown says:

        Wait, I’m not sure I follow you on this one. If you gamble, you know you’re gambling, and when you win, that’s good. It justifies gambling in the first place. That’s why you can win sometimes at slots and roulette and any of the other chance games in Vegas.

        5 years/85M is not the Yanks life savings, for one.

        I think if AJ works out, it makes this a good decision for the Yankees. That’s it. If he puts up even 180 IP & a sub-4 ERA, it’ll be worth it. If he does better than that, obviously he’ll have been worth it. If he gives us a year like 08 next year, and then is injured in ’10, only to come back & have two more good years, he’s worth it.

        If he falls short, he falls short, and he’s not worth it.

        But the way you’ve painted this is that he’s a bad decision, and will continue to be a bad decision even if he doesn’t get hurt, pitches his ass off, and closes out 5 successive ALDS’s @ Game 3. (hyperbole I know)

        Just because a gamble is a gamble, doesn’t mean it’s not a good decision sometimes.

        • radnom says:


          If you gamble, you know you’re gambling, and when you win, that’s good. It justifies gambling in the first place. That’s why you can win sometimes at slots and roulette and any of the other chance games in Vegas.

          No no no.

          If it’s a bad gamble, then it was a bad gamble even if you win.
          You can argue that signing Burnett is a good gamble right now, but the end results will not prove that either way. Just like winning roulette doesn’t prove that the odds were in your favor (they arn’t).

          • TheLastClown says:

            No, you can’t evaluating probability with words like “good” & “bad”

            Only high & low probability.

            I think it’s a high probability gamble on Burnett if you expect a #4

            I think its an even gamble if you expect a #3

            I think its a low probability gamble if you expect a #2

            I think its a roulette-comparable gamble if you expect a #1

            That being said, take a look at who our #3 & #4 was last year, and tell me you don’t think AJ Burnett for that slot is a “good” gamble

            • TheLastClown says:

              *be evaluating

            • radnom says:

              Nah I disagree.

              You are only looking at in terms of Burnett’s performance, but not the overall risk.

              For example, if someone gave you 70% odds, that would be a high probability gamble right?

              But if you had to gamble your entire assets as someone with a family to support that would be a “bad” gamble.

              Do you see what I mean? They are related but not exclusive.

              • TheLastClown says:

                But your analogy misses the mark. The assets are not those of yourself or myself, but of the New York Yankees.

                They’re not paying AJ with the rent money, so to speak.

                I don’t think there’s anything else but his performance in this case. And also, where does the risk come in, except in terms of performance? If he’s gonna get hurt *which is the risk we’re talking about, right?* then he’s gonna get hurt, which will affect performance.

                I don’t think there’s an intangible risk factor, but if there is, what is it?

                • radnom says:


                  But your analogy misses the mark. The assets are not those of yourself or myself, but of the New York Yankees.

                  They’re not paying AJ with the rent money, so to speak.

                  You missed the mark.
                  I wasn’t implying they were, merely citing an extreme example to better illustrate my reasoning.

                • TheLastClown says:

                  But your extreme example is applied to a non-extreme situation.

                  If you had a benign tumor, but the extreme response would be to assume it’s cancer & get chemo & radiation, would you?

                  Or would you figure out what the situation actually looks like before making judgments?

                • radnom says:

                  I’m not applying it to any situation, I’m using it to point out logic flaws.

                  I have said all I have to say on this, see below for my final though.

        • radnom says:

          As for saying you win slots and roulett sometimes, I’m going to give you some sincere advice. If you have fun playing those games, then all power to you enjoy it, but know that the odds are (slightly) against you.
          It is what I refer to above as a “bad gamble”.

          You have a 49% chance of loosing (just like blackjack without counting cards). If you play 100 games you might come out on top or behind. Its almost an even shot of both. As that number goes up, you odds of winning decrease. Casinos don’t open for the day not knowing whether the slot machines will overall win or lose money.
          You can work it out with math: If 500,000 games are played there is a 99% chance that the overall profit will be between x and y.
          Well the same applies to the average preson playing these games, in the reverse.

          • TheLastClown says:

            I understand the calculations. I understand the math. I was just saying that casinos incorporate a small percentage of winning to make the low probability gambles look more tantalizing to old Jewish women.

            I don’t play slots or roulette. I don’t like blackjack much either. Poker on the other hand is a game where I can calculate probabilities without relying too much on “luck.”

            Now I think that AJ Burnett has a much better rate of return then sitting with your $85M @ the Roulette wheel. Sure there’s a chance that he doesn’t do well, but there’s a chance that he’s dominant.

            I want to see, if he dominates, I really want to see you say it was a bad move then. That’s the only thing I took exception to. I read that even if he turns out to perform well, it will still be a bad move. And to that, I must disagree.

            • radnom says:


              I want to see, if he dominates, I really want to see you say it was a bad move then. That’s the only thing I took exception to. I read that even if he turns out to perform well, it will still be a bad move. And to that, I must disagree.

              So if someone went and put their life savings into lotto tickets, and won, you would take exception to the fact that I still would say that was a bad move, even though they won a hundered million dollars?

              There is plenty of perfectly reasonable debate over whether or not this is a good contract. All i’m saying is that the results of the next five years don’t prove shit one way or the other in this debate, although people think they do. I would say Pavano deal was a good one, yes.

              • TheLastClown says:

                Dude, you have an infinitesimal chance of winning the lottery.

                AJ has a much better chance than that of success.

                He has pitched in this hotly contested division for 3 years, and he’s done pretty well.

        • radnom says:


          I think if AJ works out, it makes this a good decision for the Yankees. That’s it.
          ….
          If he falls short, he falls short, and he’s not worth it.
          ….
          But the way you’ve painted this is that he’s a bad decision, and will continue to be a bad decision even if he doesn’t get hurt, pitches his ass off, and closes out 5 successive ALDS’s @ Game 3. (hyperbole I know)

          Do you realise how crazy that sounds? Future events don’t change the quality of a decision.
          That is like saying, “oh, i hite on 19 at blackjack, but won, so it was a good decision”. That is batshit insane.

          • TheLastClown says:

            No man, even if all the aces & twos are still in the deck *unlikely* you’ve got an 8:52 chance of hitting there, 2:13 odds. And that’s the best case scenario.

            Maybe we’re kind of arguing two ends of the candle here.

            I just don’t think you can liken baseball personnel decisions to Vegas & blackjack & gambling. Sure there’s some risk, no one knows exactly the future, but your analogy only works if, say, Burnett has pitched 13 years, had 2 good years therein, and on the basis of THAT we decided to give him a fat contract. Now THAT sounds batshit insane, using the same odds/probability to which you were referring.

            I just think AJ Burnett has a MUCH better chance of success than that, and I’m not even a big proponent of him coming to NY.

            But you can not say that getting him is a bad decision, no matter what, for all time, no matter what happens. Now I’m not saying you apply an “ends-justify-the-means* mentality in your life all the time, just that it has its place.

            That’s all I wanted to say

            • radnom says:


              But you can not say that getting him is a bad decision, no matter what, for all time, no matter what happens. Now I’m not saying you apply an “ends-justify-the-means* mentality in your life all the time, just that it has its place.

              Yes, you can.
              You badly miss the point of my analogies. I’m not saying that this signing is like hitting on 19. It is much, MUCH more reasonable than that. However, I don’t feel it is worth the risk given his pitching ability. Some might argue that it is. One of us would be right, but the end results will not prove that one way or the other.

              By your logic you are saying that we must judge the Pavano deal as one of the worst contract decisions of all time.
              I make the distinction that it could still have been a decent decision (I think it was) but the outcome was what was bad.
              Obviously this also applies in reverse.
              .
              This will be my last post on the matter. If you can’t understand it from that last paragraph then there is nothing I can do for you.

              • TheLastClown says:

                Well, I did say that the ends-justify-the-means mentality is not appropriate for all situations, even though you seem to want to go all-or-nothing with your yes/no logic. You should read Alfred Korzybski.

                Pavano was subject to a string of freak accidents, I don’t use that situation to judge any others.

                You can evaluate situations without getting extreme, that was my point. Please don’t get all high & mighty, taking the last word. I don’t need you to “do” anything for me.

  10. gxpanos says:

    The Braves added a fifth year…we can still hope he opts for a few mil less.

    Huuuuhhh…

    I really hope this doesn’t turn out to be a bad, bad move, and just ends up a pretty bad one.

  11. christopher says:

    in a vaccum i would prefer lowe and sheets, but there is no real garuntee they get either lowe or sheets. i would rather have burnett than ponson or rasner. he does make the team better, but i can see this contract being one of those where we are counting down the years. not quite as bad as pavano, but you cant be optomistic about burnett in year four or five unless some of the reports are true and he is beginning to learn how to pitch and that his new style (not maxing out on every pitch) could lead to him being healthier down the road.

    it is a shame though because I really saw the combination of lowe and sheets as a perfect fit behind CC. You get an innings eater and good teacher in Lowe and your high risk/high reward guy in sheets.

  12. The Honorable Congressman Mondesi says:

    I am fully on board with signing AJ Burnett for 5 years. Please give me a ton of sh*t if he (1) sucks, (2) blows out his arm or (3) all of the above.

  13. Mike W. says:

    Between the choice of Burnett at 5 years or Lowe at 4 years, the choice is so overwhelmingly Burnett it is not even funny.

    CC/Burnett/Wang/Sheets or Pettitte/Joba is going to be a SICK rotation.
    Then, we have Hughes/IPK/Aceves waiting in the wings for injuries…

  14. Chip says:

    Honestly, I’m not nearly as upset about this as I was before. I mean by his third year we’re expecting him to be what, a 4th starter? That’s a damn good guy to have your fourth starter.

    Plus, we still have all this money coming off the books so I don’t think salary is an issue right now. If you make the playoffs, you run CC, AJ and Wang out there in a short series with Joba and Phil in the bullpen which is pretty much untouchable. Yes, you’re taking the bet that he stays healthy but it’s not like we need him to succeed, he’s icing on the cake by this point.

  15. E-ROC says:

    AJ Burnett will want to be the “ace” of the Braves staff instead of playing second fiddle with CC in NY. I can’t blame the guy either. Hopefully, that is his choice. :)

  16. 7 Angels says:

    AJ plz go to Atlanta. We had Pavano, we don’t need a repeat. I’d rather take my chances with Sheets and Lowe.

    • justin says:

      I don’t see how Sheets is any more of a sure thing than Pavano and I don’t see how Burnett is all that similar to Pavano besides the fact that they were both on the 03′ Marlins. Burnett sits 93-95 and touches 97 with a devastating curveball and slider. Pavano sits 88-89 with mediocre sink and a decent changeup. They have both been injured but A.J. has thrown 521 innings since 05′ which dwarfs Pavano’s 152 IP. I think comparing A.J. to The American Idle is kinda like comparing a Porsche to a Ford Focus, sure they both have four wheels and can get from A to B, but wouldn’t you rather be riding in the Porsche?

    • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi says:

      I’ll let Keith Law respond to this better than I could:

      Matt (Yardley, PA): Burnett to me is Pavano ver2.0.

      Keith Law: Not even close. Pavano in the NL in his only two healthy years, right before signing with the Yanks: 423 IP, 272 K’s, 35 HR allowed. That’s in a big ballpark, facing opposing pitchers to boost his K total. Burnett, in the AL East, in a slight hitters’ park, last two years: 387 IP, 407 Ks, 42 HR. You can’t make a performance argument that he’s like Pavano. You can’t make a health argument that he’s like Pavano (who was hurt in some part of every year until his sixth season). You definitely can’t make a stuff argument that he’s like Pavano. That’s a completely unfair tag to place on Burnett.

  17. jsbrendog says:

    by the 4th or 5th yr at that point who cares anyway. besides, cc will prob opt out after 3 yrs and go west anyway

    • whozat says:

      “by the 4th or 5th yr at that point who cares anyway.”

      WE probably will, in 2012 and 2013. We’ll be pissed that Burnett’s 16 mil — which he is being paid to spend 2 months a year on the DL — can’t be used to fill a hole somewhere else. And also that having his aging body on the roster requires the team to sign some healthier-but-less-good starter to fill out the rotation and keep Brackman or ZMac in AAA to take the injury starts because they can’t afford to wind up in the situation where the back end of the rotation is entirely made up of rookies.

  18. justin says:

    Anyone who didn’t see this coming last season must have been blind-folded or not watching baseball. Burnett seems to be a guy that thrives in bigger games. Remember how Oliver Perez became a completely different pitcher every time he faced the Yankees, Burnett was more of the same extrapolated to all of his starts against AL East teams. The guy absolutely dominates his better opponents. Over his career Burnett has roughly 250.5 innings against the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays (granted the Rays weren’t good until this past season but the did make it to the World Series so they’re in) over which he has compiled 254 K’s with a 2.65 ERA. Down the stretch during Sept/Oct Burnett has pitched 283 innings with 277k’s with a 3.78 ERA. He seems to have all the symptoms of a big-game pitcher ala David Cone. Who’s to say that when playing for the Yankees when every game is a big game he doesn’t step it up a notch?Either way, the guy is solid and would only serve to improve an already improved rotation and would bring another dominant strikeout pitcher into the rotation, which is good because the Yankee defense is awful. I was not nor have I ever been a huge fan of Burnett, he’s not a very attractive personality. But I don’t think anyone can dispute that he has great stuff and can pitch in big games which sounds like a worthwhile gamble to me.

    • jsbrendog says:

      ok he’s in. but only, repeat, only, if he shaves that stupid “goatee” he has. its like a happy trail from his lip to his neck.

      Skinny tie = cool

      Skinny chin fuzz = lame

  19. Adam says:

    Waiting for Godot was Beckett, not Burnett (wrong ex-Marlin)…

  20. I believe without a doubt, Burnett will sign. That 5 years make me nervous and give me nightmares about Pavano.

  21. TheLastClown says:

    Look, I’m not a huge Burnett guy, I still prefer Sheets, etc., etc.

    I am, however, almost convinced that he’ll be a Yankee in the next couple of days, maybe Monday. So I want to make the best of the situation that’s available.

    My question is: Why all the Pavano/Burnett comparisons? AJ has a better track record of health than Pavano had before coming to NY & the AL East, plus he’d never pitched there before, AJ has. Was it just that they won a WS ring together? IF that’s the reason, please stop. If there’s another reason, please explain.

    • justin says:

      I don’t really get it either…I just work to destroy them

    • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi says:

      I second that emotion.

    • jsbrendog says:

      PFF, how dare you make sense and make a valid point that i agree with completely. who do you think you are?

    • radnom says:

      I don’t think it has anything to do with their time with the Marlin’s I think its just when the average Yankee fan hears:
      oft injured pitcher + large contract

      Pavano jumps into mind.

      I think the same comparisons, fair or not,(not) are not made about Sheets only because of the length of his rumored contract demands.

  22. pat says:

    I know this sounds weird, but to me, guys who kill the yankees secretly want to be a yankee. It’s like they want to put on a show for cashman so they can get signed when they become FA’s. Frickin chone figgins comes to mind, it seems like whenever they play the angels figgins is always coming up with clutch hits or sick plays in the field. Same thing with ollie perez, I know his walk numbers are atrocious but he KILLED us last year on more than one occasion, maybe its something about the yankees that could bring the best out in him. Burnett falls into this category as well, although hes a better player than both of those guys. Just a silly gut feeling, whatever.

    • radnom says:

      Can anyone think off the top of their heads some “Yankee killers” who ended up playing for us?

      The best I can do is Damon I guess but that is a bit of a stretch, hmmm….

      • TheLastClown says:

        David Wells says hello.

        But he said it from his back on the sticky barroom floor.

        Oh yeah, and Moose

        • radnom says:

          Good one on Wells.

          Was Moose really a “Yankee-killer” though? Or just someone who happened to be absolutely filthy in the same division. I’m talking about someone with a huge disparity in overall number vs. numbers against the Yanks (like Burnett has).

      • pat says:

        After lookin through the interwebs- Kevin Brown had thoroughly owned the Yankees over the course of his career, posting a 2.50 ERA and 12-3 record in 16 starts. But I think we all know how that story ended.

      • pat says:

        Babe Ruth the pitcher was 17-5 against us. I think we all know how that story ended as well.

      • usty says:

        Didn’t Boomer used to torment us at home before becoming a Yankee? (this despite mediocre numbers elsewhere at the time.)

  23. SWB says:

    ESPN.com says he accepted the Yanks offer

    • rbizzler says:

      I am not sure whether I should be happy or sad. I think that I am going with ‘cautiously optimistic’ until further notice.

  24. C.Panella says:

    Yankees sign burnett 5/82.5 mm deal

  25. christopher says:

    burnett deal is done

  26. TheLastClown says:

    Well, now the final domino is yet to fall.

    Tex or Dunn everyone?

  27. MR LLOYD says:

    Look, this is the move to make!

    Lock Burnett up, baby, he’s by far the best picther left (interms of “stuff”). When healthy, he can be outright dominant – no one can say the same for Lowe or Pettite.

    Lowe is the “safe” pick, but does anyone think he’s going to be really THAT GOOD of a picther back in the AL East and 4 years older than the last time he picthed here. By no means was Lowe a very good or great pitcher the last time he was here. He’s a reliable innings eater and he wont get hurt, aside from that, he doesnt scare anybody.

    BURNETT ALL THE WAY!

  28. christopher says:

    not advocating signing him, but it speaks volumes about where the game is now and how much it has changed. in their little report about ibanez espn speculates that burrell wont come anywhere near the 3 years 30 million that ibanez signed for.

    What would burrell had gotten on the free agent market in any of the past 3 years prior to this one? I have to think a lot more than 10 million per. For that matter Ibanez has the 2nd most RBIs in the AL over the past 2 years and he only got 10 million per.

    With such a depressed market where very good talent can be had cheaply, the yanks need to jump in even if it creates a log-jam this season. Next year they have nobody signed and who knows if the market will come back up next season.

  29. waswhining says:

    CC AJ and BS? If I’m Ben Sheets, I’m telling everyone this Initial nonsense has to stop NOW.

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