Jan
04

A sensible Hall of Fame ballot

By

Oftentimes, when BBWAA voters release their Hall of Fame ballot choices, they do with little regard for common-sense analysis or even baseball reality. Ken Davidoff, however, offers up an exception. In a thorough blog post about his ballot, Davidoff explores how he has come to understand statistical tools and how he arrived at his ballot choices. If only every voter was so enlightened…

Categories : Asides
  • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

    I agree w/Blyleven, Raines, and Rickey and was more or less convinced for Trammell. The latter may need a stronger argument but, Davidoff made a good case.

    • Andy In Sunny Daytona

      Hall-of-fame fun fact of the day:

      Rickey Henderson is the only player in baseball to hit a homerun in 25 consecutive seasons.

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        Ty Cobb stabbed a guy.

  • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

    “But Hall of Fame candidates shouldn’t be judged on snapshots, IMHO. They should be evaluated on entire albums of information. The statistics stand the test of time. Our memories are not as reliable.”

    DBHOF’s head just exploded.

    • whozat

      No! My memories of things that I saw when I was six years old are FAR more reliable than your stupid number! You keep coming up with new numbers that mean different things! My memories are inviolate!

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        I hope he knows I’m just doing some good natured ribbing and not trying to start up shitstorms again. I respect you, DBHOF, ol’ buddy, wherever you are.

  • kenthadley

    IMO….Henderson, obviously……Morris, yes (if he had pitched in New York during his prime, he’d be in already)……the rest, no……I might be swayed on Blyleven, but the others were just “really good” players…….over time, Raines might move up…….I also have a soft spot for Allie Reynolds, but that debate requires some folks who remember seeing him pitch, how he was used, and what he meant to all of those championship teams of the late 40’s and early 50’s……

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Ben K.

      Question: How does someone “move up” over time? IMO, either they are a Hall of Famer from the start or they don’t deserve the Hall. Obviously, none of these guys are adding to their career totals anymore. What makes them a Hall of Famer in three elections if they don’t get in the first time?

      • kenthadley

        Ben, I guess the same reason why some HOF’ers made it after 10 or 15 years of votes, or some made it via the veterans committee……some players contributions are viewed differently over time based on a variety of factors, such as changes in the game, appreciation for different contributions, era impact (such as all the HR’s in the late 90’s diluting the value of hitting 60), impact of competition, culture, etc. (Monty Irvin didn’t produce HOF numbers in MLB, but looking at the entire picture years later lead to his entrance)……Reese and Rizzuto weren’t considered HOF’ers when they retired, but years later opinions changed……

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Ben K.

          Rizzuto got in not because of his playing career but because of his overall contributions to baseball, and his was a hotly contested induction. The vast majority of players elected within their 15 years of eligibility but not in year one haven’t done what Rizzuto did.

          • kenthadley

            so he moved up over time……..

            • A.D.

              Raines isn’t going to be the figure Rizzuto was

              • http://www.riveraveblues.com Ben K.

                Raines should probably get in on his merit alone though.

            • whozat

              Ben’s point is that the “moving up over time” phenomenon happens with many players, most of whom do not go on to be a fixture in the booth for 30 years (or whatever)

              Citing one example does not explain why this happens so much.

              Look at Rice. Not a hall of famer…until maybe it’s his last year, so now he is?

      • Lanny

        You’re giving the baseball writers way too much credit for common sense. These are the same guys who don’t know who rookies are when they vote ROY.

    • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

      Allow me to drop some knowledge on you as to why Blyleven is a better candidate than Jack Morris.

      ERA:
      BB: 3.31
      JM: 3.90

      BB:
      BB: 1332 in 4970 innings
      JM: 1390 in 3567 innings

      K/9:
      BB: 6.7
      JM: 5.8

      K/BB:
      BB: 2.79
      JM: 1.78

      WHIP:
      BB: 1.198
      JM: 1.296

      OPS against:
      BB: .668
      JM: .693

      BB/9:
      BB: 2.23
      JM: 3.27

      Men on Base/9:
      BB: 10.61
      JM: 11.66

      ERA+
      BB: 118
      JM: 105

      More stuff I wrote on the subject: http://www.fannation.com/blogs.....e-for-bert

      Blyleven >> Jack Morris every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

      • kenthadley

        and how do they stack up in October?

        • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

          So you’re gonna take two guys who have a total of 8,537 innings pitch and compare them based on 139.2 innings, less than a full season’s total for one pitcher? Real smart.

          Anyway

          Blyleven’s got a 2.41 ERA, 1.083 WHIP, 4.5 K/BB in 47.1 IP in the post season (dude played for some awful teams but still won 2 WS)

          Morris: 3.89 ERA, 1.249 WHIP, 2.0 K/BB in 92.1 IP in the post season.

          Looks like Blyleven wins. Again.

          • kenthadley

            ok Matt, read my original comment…you swayed me on Bert…..

            feel better now?

            • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

              Yup. I’ve made it a personal quest to champion the Bert Blyleven for the HOF cause, so don’t take it personal, haha.

        • Ivan

          You do know that statistically BB has done better than Jack Morris in playoff games.

        • http://poormansanalyst.wordpress.com/ dan

          Blyleven was better in the post-season than Morris. Fact.

    • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      Morris, yes (if he had pitched in New York during his prime, he’d be in already)……the rest, no……I might be swayed on Blyleven, but the others were just “really good” players…

      By any and every single analysis, be it statistical, anecdotal, emotional, whatever,

      Bert Blyleven >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Jack Morris

      Blyleven Career:
      3.19 FIP, 6.70 K/9, 2.39 BB/9, 1.20 WHIP

      Morris Career:
      3.94 FIP, 5.83 K/9, 3.27 BB/9, 1.30 WHIP

      • kenthadley

        I could be wrong, but I recall Morris being an essential pitcher to several WS teams, but I dont recall Blyleven having the same impact……I dont disagree with you, but I am just going on my recollection…..

        • Ivan

          The reason people always say that JM is an HOFer cuz like Davidoff said, JM has that tremendous snapshot in his career with winning game 7 of the 91 WS. Thus, people say hey, he’s a legit HOFer. When in reality he never was.

        • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          I dont disagree with you, but I am just going on my recollection…..

          As Davidoff said in his article, and I quoted above,

          “The statistics stand the test of time. Our memories are not as reliable.”

  • Lanny

    That Ozzie Smith is in the HOF and Trammell can’t even get a sniff is almost criminal. Maybe he should have done a few blackflips.

    • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      “blackflips”

      And this is what it takes for a black player to become loved by a racist city like 1980’s St. Louis: Turn yourself into a Stepandfetchit caricature.

  • A.D.

    I would go BB & Ricky, thats it.

    Gotta like Davidoff, for seeing the light on advanced statistics…if only others would do the same

    • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      I’d add in Trammell. He was an elite hitting shortstop for ten years… those things don’t grow on trees.