Jan
04

A sensible Hall of Fame ballot

By

Oftentimes, when BBWAA voters release their Hall of Fame ballot choices, they do with little regard for common-sense analysis or even baseball reality. Ken Davidoff, however, offers up an exception. In a thorough blog post about his ballot, Davidoff explores how he has come to understand statistical tools and how he arrived at his ballot choices. If only every voter was so enlightened…

Categories : Asides

30 Comments»

  1. Matt says:

    I agree w/Blyleven, Raines, and Rickey and was more or less convinced for Trammell. The latter may need a stronger argument but, Davidoff made a good case.

  2. “But Hall of Fame candidates shouldn’t be judged on snapshots, IMHO. They should be evaluated on entire albums of information. The statistics stand the test of time. Our memories are not as reliable.”

    DBHOF’s head just exploded.

  3. kenthadley says:

    IMO….Henderson, obviously……Morris, yes (if he had pitched in New York during his prime, he’d be in already)……the rest, no……I might be swayed on Blyleven, but the others were just “really good” players…….over time, Raines might move up…….I also have a soft spot for Allie Reynolds, but that debate requires some folks who remember seeing him pitch, how he was used, and what he meant to all of those championship teams of the late 40′s and early 50′s……

    • Ben K. says:

      Question: How does someone “move up” over time? IMO, either they are a Hall of Famer from the start or they don’t deserve the Hall. Obviously, none of these guys are adding to their career totals anymore. What makes them a Hall of Famer in three elections if they don’t get in the first time?

      • kenthadley says:

        Ben, I guess the same reason why some HOF’ers made it after 10 or 15 years of votes, or some made it via the veterans committee……some players contributions are viewed differently over time based on a variety of factors, such as changes in the game, appreciation for different contributions, era impact (such as all the HR’s in the late 90′s diluting the value of hitting 60), impact of competition, culture, etc. (Monty Irvin didn’t produce HOF numbers in MLB, but looking at the entire picture years later lead to his entrance)……Reese and Rizzuto weren’t considered HOF’ers when they retired, but years later opinions changed……

        • Ben K. says:

          Rizzuto got in not because of his playing career but because of his overall contributions to baseball, and his was a hotly contested induction. The vast majority of players elected within their 15 years of eligibility but not in year one haven’t done what Rizzuto did.

      • Lanny says:

        You’re giving the baseball writers way too much credit for common sense. These are the same guys who don’t know who rookies are when they vote ROY.

    • Matt says:

      Allow me to drop some knowledge on you as to why Blyleven is a better candidate than Jack Morris.

      ERA:
      BB: 3.31
      JM: 3.90

      BB:
      BB: 1332 in 4970 innings
      JM: 1390 in 3567 innings

      K/9:
      BB: 6.7
      JM: 5.8

      K/BB:
      BB: 2.79
      JM: 1.78

      WHIP:
      BB: 1.198
      JM: 1.296

      OPS against:
      BB: .668
      JM: .693

      BB/9:
      BB: 2.23
      JM: 3.27

      Men on Base/9:
      BB: 10.61
      JM: 11.66

      ERA+
      BB: 118
      JM: 105

      More stuff I wrote on the subject: http://www.fannation.com/blogs.....e-for-bert

      Blyleven >> Jack Morris every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

      • kenthadley says:

        and how do they stack up in October?

        • Matt says:

          So you’re gonna take two guys who have a total of 8,537 innings pitch and compare them based on 139.2 innings, less than a full season’s total for one pitcher? Real smart.

          Anyway

          Blyleven’s got a 2.41 ERA, 1.083 WHIP, 4.5 K/BB in 47.1 IP in the post season (dude played for some awful teams but still won 2 WS)

          Morris: 3.89 ERA, 1.249 WHIP, 2.0 K/BB in 92.1 IP in the post season.

          Looks like Blyleven wins. Again.

        • Ivan says:

          You do know that statistically BB has done better than Jack Morris in playoff games.

        • dan says:

          Blyleven was better in the post-season than Morris. Fact.

    • Morris, yes (if he had pitched in New York during his prime, he’d be in already)……the rest, no……I might be swayed on Blyleven, but the others were just “really good” players…

      By any and every single analysis, be it statistical, anecdotal, emotional, whatever,

      Bert Blyleven >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Jack Morris

      Blyleven Career:
      3.19 FIP, 6.70 K/9, 2.39 BB/9, 1.20 WHIP

      Morris Career:
      3.94 FIP, 5.83 K/9, 3.27 BB/9, 1.30 WHIP

      • kenthadley says:

        I could be wrong, but I recall Morris being an essential pitcher to several WS teams, but I dont recall Blyleven having the same impact……I dont disagree with you, but I am just going on my recollection…..

        • Ivan says:

          The reason people always say that JM is an HOFer cuz like Davidoff said, JM has that tremendous snapshot in his career with winning game 7 of the 91 WS. Thus, people say hey, he’s a legit HOFer. When in reality he never was.

        • I dont disagree with you, but I am just going on my recollection…..

          As Davidoff said in his article, and I quoted above,

          “The statistics stand the test of time. Our memories are not as reliable.”

  4. Lanny says:

    That Ozzie Smith is in the HOF and Trammell can’t even get a sniff is almost criminal. Maybe he should have done a few blackflips.

  5. A.D. says:

    I would go BB & Ricky, thats it.

    Gotta like Davidoff, for seeing the light on advanced statistics…if only others would do the same

Leave a Reply

You may use <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong> in your comment.

If this is your first time commenting on River Ave. Blues, please review the RAB Commenter Guidelines. Login for commenting features. Register for RAB.