Jan
13

Braves lock up Lowe for four years

By

According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the Braves and Derek Lowe have come to terms on a four-year, $60-million deal. It’s a nice contract for Lowe and a solid signing by the Braves.

Meanwhile, this is a deal that echoes through New York for a few reasons. First off, when the Yanks opted to go for A.J. Burnett instead of Lowe, I never expected the former Dodger hurler to land himself a $15-million AAV deal. It seems that I was wrong, and it seems that the market for starting pitching is a bit more robust than the market for corner outfielders.

From that four-year deal, we probably have to reevaluate the Yanks’ one-year offer to Andy Pettitte. You could very easily make the argument now than $10 million for one year of Pettitte is indeed to low. It shouldn’t take Derek Lowe money to lock up Andy, but it may take $12-$13 million guaranteed.

Second, the Mets are looking at an off-season of futility. They low-balled Lowe and never had a real chance to up their offer. Instead, one of their top divisional competitors lands one of the bigger free agent pitchers left. Now, Omar Minaya will have to dole out the bucks for Oliver Perez and probably take a good, long look at Ben Sheets’ medical reports as well.

Categories : Hot Stove League
  • blee

    now Burnett’s deal doesnt sound that bad..

    • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      Yes it does.

      • Nady Nation

        Yea, I was gonna say. Not sure how this justifies giving a 5 year deal to a guy whose thrown over 175 innings just 3 times in his 10 year career (2 of which were contract years). Hoping that I’m wrong

        • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          Me too. I hope I’m wrong.

          • Jay CT

            I think you are going to turn out to be wrong. Of course, I always think everything the Yankees does is a good move, lol, so I have been wrong in the past. I still think if we could sign Sheets and get 150 innings pitched out of him a season, it would be well worth it

            • Mike

              Totally agree. Sheets is becoming a steal even if he gets hurt he is worth it cause he has such great stuff. Two year deal and he makes 40 starts was well worth it, cause he has ace stuff.

              • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

                Jason Schmidt says hello.

                • Jay CT

                  The difference in my opinion though is 1. the Sheets “shoulder issues” are still a rumor to my knowledge. It makes little sense for a guy to decline arbitration and 14 or 15 million if he knows that is in his medicals. 2. Schmidt got a 3 year deal, and the Dodgers deliberatly overpaid on amount to save on years. I am saying a low base high incentive package for Sheets. I think a 2 year 10 million dollar deal with 150 IP escalators to raise it to say a 3 year 42 million dollar deal might get the talk going. Thoughts?

                • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

                  My thoughts are, I want to believe, but it’s getting harder for me. I was pushing Sheets over Burnett all winter… but the fact that it’s now mid-January and he’s barely received anything more than a perfunctory sniff from the Rangers makes me believe the rumors that his shoulder (and not just his elbow) is damaged are real.

    • Let’s Talk About TEX Baby

      The Braves are spending about $47 million on 4 starters in 2009. That’s more than us if we don’t sign Pettitte or another starter. Of those 4, one (Tim Hudson) is out for most of the season. One (Derek Lowe) is decent but certainly not worthy of a $15 mil annual salary. One (Javier Vazquez is very up and down from year to year, and the other (Kenshin Kawakami) is untested in the US. I really don’t get what they’re doing.

      I’m not a fan of A.J. Burnett at all, but when I realized the alternative was 4 years of 36 y/o Derek Lowe, I rooted hard for us to sign him.

  • THE KID (WI)

    No, AJ’s deal looks in line now.

    Regarding Sheets, as a Yankee fan living in Wisconsin, if a team could sign Sheets to a pro-rated 2.15 year deal that’d be fair….cuz that’s about how many years you’ll get out of him on a four year deal….

  • A.D.

    Could have a ripple effect for the Yanks… Braves are obviously looking to contend right now, and still need a LF, they might be more interested in Nady.

    If they had gotten Furcal they could have had a real nice offseason… maybe they still try going after Cabrera and move Escobar.

    • Reggie C.

      Tommy Hanson now doesn’t have to get rushed. He could be the impact prospect in the 2nd half.

      • A.D.

        Yeah they also could still sign Glavine, and maybe get Hudson back at some point, if it weren’t for their division they’d be in a real nice spot.

        • Jay CT

          I think Hudson is due back mid season

      • Andy In Sunny Daytona

        Maybe they can make Hanson their 8th inning guy?

        • Jay CT

          Well that would make plenty of sense. Top pitching prospects belong in the 8th inning- it is the most important inning of the game I heard

          • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

            Q.E.D.

            • Andy In Sunny Daytona

              When in Greece…

    • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      If they had gotten Furcal they could have had a real nice offseason… maybe they still try going after Cabrera and move Escobar.

      Except for the fact that, you know, Orlando Cabrera sucks.

      Plus, Cabrera’s a type A. You wanna give up the 48th pick in the draft to sign a 34 year old shortstop to a multi-year deal who just put up a .281/.334/.371/.705/.316? And all that to trade 26 year old Yunel Escobar?

      Bad Idea Jeans.

      • A.D.

        I meant move Escobar to 2B & then play Johnson in LF or move him for a left fielder.

        But alas forgot about the type A…with that no dice.

        • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          Although, since Lowe is also a type A, they’ve already lost their 2nd rounder (#48), so Cabrera only effectively costs them their 3rd rounder (#80), but even still…

          The bigger issue is that Cabrera is old and garbage. Losing the #80 pick to sign him is just the crap icing on the turd cake.

          • Andy In Sunny Daytona

            MMMMMM…..crap icing!!

          • pat

            Dont talk about our future centerfielder like that!!- Fecal_Confectionist13

            • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

              Wrong Cabrera. Nice handle, though…

              • pat

                There is definitely a clan of people who advocate signing orlando hudson to play cf. I bet if you were to make a Venn diagram of people who want o-cab for cf and people who think omar minaya only likes aging hispanic players there would be considerable overlap. The overlapping section would.then be labeled such things as douchenozzles, fucktards or quite simply, Tiger Petters

                • jsbrendog

                  this was amusing

                • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

                  Fair enough, you’ve convinced me.

                  I’d also add assburglars, cockknockers, troglodytes, mouthbreathers, and B-Jobbers.

          • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

            Food metaphors make me get all nostalgic.

            • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

              Looking at 2008 Andruw Jones makes me nostalgic regarding Raul Mondesi as well…

              • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

                Don’t be racist.

                • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

                  heh.

                • jsbrendog

                  didnt this have mroe to do with being fatist?

                • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

                  “didnt this have mroe to do with being fatist?”

                  That’s just piling on.

                  Like the way TSJC piled on the points in his various triumphant fantasy football matchups [shoots self in head]

                • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

                  The jokes just right themselves, don’t they?

                • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

                  I keed, your fantasy football comments actually light up my life.

                • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside
      • steve (different one)

        Bad Idea Jeans.

        come on, when is the next time you’re going to be in Haiti?

        • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          Did you see that Keith Law name dropped Bad Idea Jeans in one of his chats last week?

          http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/.....t_id=24452

          “chris (wi): Thoughts on the Brewers inking Hoffman to a 1yr/$6m deal?

          Keith Law: I don’t know the guy, but he needs a kidney and I have two…

          • steve (different one)

            didn’t see that. well played Keith.

          • MattG

            From the same chat, and probably a topic for another day:

            Andy (Waltham, MA): Does Ian Kennedy have a shot at being the #5 in NY to start the year?

            SportsNation Keith Law: No. Unfortunately, I think he’s done in NY.

  • pat

    Lowe wasnt old or hispanic enough for minaya’s taste- Racist_Guy86

    • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      Heh.

      Robert Goulet, is that you?

  • THU

    I wonder where Sheets goes now. I’d still like the Yankees take to a risk on him.

    • frank

      I agree. The Yanks can afford to gamble on Sheets on a short term, incentive deal.

  • Reggie C.

    I don’t see how Andy Pettitte’s offer gets boosted just b/c Lowe has more or less gotten the money we initially thought he would. Their respective 2008 seasons were wholly different. Lowe has been a model of health and All-star quality production since ’05. He earned his pay bump.

    • Bo

      I’d be insulted if I was Pettitte and was asked to take a lower salary than Pavano made here last yr and Carlos Silva makes in Seattle.

      It’s not like he went 5-16 here last yr. He won 14 games in the Al East on an average team with a sore shoulder.

      • steve (different one)

        ok, but “with a sore shoulder” is one of those nagging details that is keeping his salary offer down.

        and why shouldn’t it?

        • Ed

          I do agree the shoulder should have an impact, but, I would think Pettitte’s response would be “You knew about the injury and wanted me to continue pitching through it, so don’t fault me for not pitching as well as before the injury.” And remember, the MRI he took at the end of the season was the 2nd one on his shoulder, so the team knew he was hurt.

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        A) Silva was a horrid overpayment and every smart person knows this.
        B) Pavano was at the tail end of a contract signed back when he was a 28 year old coming off a dominant ’03 playoff performance and an 18-8, 3.00 ERA season (and pre-injuries). He was at the peak of his earning power and had a fairly bright future ahead of him.

        If you’d be insulted by making less than A) a massive outlier bonehead of a contract and B) a 4 year old contract of a potential ace in his prime that only looks bad in retrospect due to a horrid string of injuries, then you’d be either incredibly shortsighted or incredibly petty.

        By your logic, 90% of baseball players should be pissed the hell off and insulted constantly because they’re not making as much as Barry Zito or Jason Schmidt.

        • Ed

          The Silva contract is only a horrid overpayment in retrospect as well. Before this season, he had a career similar to Ted Lilly and Jarrod Washburn, each of which are getting around $10m/year. He was paid about 20% more than similar pitchers were making a year earlier, which is a little high but not a lot. Contracts tend to go up about 10% a year, so from the Mariners standpoint it was really only about a $1m/year overpayment, which they figured was acceptable considering there weren’t any big name starters available.

          The problem is right after that signing, the rest of baseball realized the stupidity in paying that much money for pitchers like that and scaled back. That’s when the contract looked stupid.

          The Zito contract, yeah, that’s one that most people realized wouldn’t make sense before it was even signed. That’s why no one uses that contract as a reference point in negotiations.

          • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

            Meh, as I recall, I heard people saying the Silva contract was a stupid mistake about 0.13 seconds after it was announced.

            • Ed

              Every contract signed by a mediocre pitcher is panned when it’s announced. It wasn’t considered a colossal blunder until months later.

              Just did a quick search of MLBTR posts on Silva, here’s a few quotes:

              11/8/07 – “No one expects Silva to come cheaper than four years, $40MM.”

              11/12/07 – “Youngman also believes the Halos have slight interest in Carlos Silva, if he can be had at less than $10MM annually. Not bloody likely.”

              12/11/08 – “Plan B for the Royals is said to be Carlos Silva, but not at a price higher than four years and $40MM. That probably won’t cut it for Silva, who can probably get an additional $10MM or another year elsewhere.”

              12/18/08 – “Rosenthal notes that $44MM or more would represent the bar for Silva’s tier of starters being moved slightly up. That is to be expected; some have speculated it might take more like $12MM annually to get Silva.”

              • Jay CT

                It was said that it was stupid but he was the “best” available.

                • Ed

                  A team that needs a pitcher signing the best available one to a market rate contract is only stupid if you’re of the “People shouldn’t get paid millions of dollars to play a game” mindset. I do I realize though that it doesn’t stop people from calling almost every contract signed stupid.

                  Silva was a mediocre player signed to a market rate contract. Essentially that means it was neither a good nor a bad move, but a neutral move.

                  His signing became a bad move when Lohse signed for $4.25m/1 year and drastically lowered the expectations for mediocre pitching. At the time Silva signed, Lohse was expected to sign for a little less (around $10m/year instead of Silva’s $12m/year).

                • Jay CT

                  Who would have thought that a Scott Boras client could actually LOWER the salary bar!

    • Ed

      Because $10m was only reasonable on the assumption that teams are paying less for players due to the economy.

      What have we seen in contracts this winter? CC Sabathia got the largest pitching contract ever. AJ Burnett got a huge contract, which is notable due to his injury history and overall mediocre career. Ryan Dempster got a huge contract coming off of one great year totally out of line with the rest of his career. Randy Johnson might’ve gotten a little more in other years, but he is in his mid 40′s, has no knee cartilage, and has had multiple back surgeries over the past few years, so he’s a giant health risk – plus there’s also the 2-3 mph he lost off his pitches last year as a warning sign.

      Closers did sign for less than expected, but there were more closers available than closing jobs open, so they fell victim to the laws of supply and demand. Likewise on really bad defensive OF/1B players – although you could argue that decline is due more to teams putting increased value on defensive performance.

  • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

    It’ll be even funnier once Omar gives Oliver Perez 5/75.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      Heh, the Braves get to keep their first round pick too.

    • John NY

      I see this as a Met worst case scenario. Now the market has been dictated for them instead of by them, they’re paying up.

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        … unless, of course, Manny Ramirez literally falls into their laps.

        • Jack

          I wonder what $20 million looks like in singles.

        • dane bramage

          …..Manny couldn’t wind up in the Bronx…….could he?

          • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

            Team doesn’t want to add more payroll… We should take up a collection. I’m in for $50.

            • Jay CT

              I can toss 50 bucks in too. Now we only need to come up with about 29,000,900 for this year! Oh… the luxary tax… so we will need another 14,500,000. You good at fundraising? I will sell some candy bars if that helps.

              • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

                GET TO SELLING!!!

            • Ed

              Team doesn’t want to add more payroll

              That’s what Cash said before signing Tex.

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

        They have a $123M payroll already, with no #2 starter, no #4 starter, a Tatis/Murphy platoon in LF, and no utility infielder.

        • Reggie C.

          They’ve got one heck of a set-up/closer punch though. They just won’t be getting to them too much.

          • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

            Very true. Putz and K-Rod should be pretty lights out during those, oh, let’s say… 30 forthcoming save opportunities this season. I’m… excited?

            • A.D.

              Hmmm now only 65 more wins to figure out.

              • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

                Fernando Tatis and Luis Castillo, I’m looking at you two…

                (oh, and your math is off. I said 30 save opportunities, not 30 saves. With K-Rod as the closer, 30 save opportunities = 22 wins, therefore they need 73 wins from somewhere else, not just 65. Glad we cleared that up.)

        • A.D.

          But they have the 8th inning locked down, while the yankees don’t since Fuentes nor Joba is there.

          Minaya > Cash

          • Marc

            I take Mo, Bruney, Edwar,Veras and Marte for the 7-9th innings over Putz, K-Rod and whoever.

            • usty

              I take Mo, Bruney, Edwar,Veras and Marte for the 7-9th innings over Putz, K-Rod.

              Fixed.

          • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

            Lisa, I want to buy your rock.

        • jsbrendog

          AND a declining second baseman witht wo bad knees whose game is built on slap hits and speed and can’t beat out a ground ball anymroe nor hit it out of the infield or stay on the field for a whole seasno.

          this is going to be a disaster and fun for me to watch

          • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

            The 2009 Mets = The 2008 Mariners

            • jsbrendog

              poor jj putz

  • http://www.puristbleedspinstripes.com Rebecca-Optimist Prime

    What other pitchers do the Braves have besides Lowe, anyway?

    Too bad the Yankees can’t get him, but they’ll probably end up with Pettitte, one way or another. It almost makes too much sense.

    • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      1) Lowe
      2) Vazquez
      3) Jurjjens
      4) Jorge Campillo
      5) Jo-Jo Reyes

      plus Tim Hudson and Tommy Hanson at some point. Not great, but not bad either. Those top three, plus whatever they get from Hudson and Hanson could keep them in it until the end, where they probably finish battling with the Mets for 3rd place.

      (and yes, that means I’m buying into the Florida Marlins hype. They could easily challenge the Phillies all year.)

      • http://www.puristbleedspinstripes.com Rebecca-Optimist Prime

        I completely forgot about Jurjjens.

        • Jay CT

          They also signed that Japanese pitcher who is supposed to be a number 3 type, so JoJo Reyes doesn’t have a rotation spot

    • A.D.

      Lowe
      Vasquez
      Jurjens
      Campillo

      Then Kawakami, Jo-Jo Reyes, Hanson. I read Hudson could be back at the end, and they could still sign Glavine

    • steve (different one)

      they traded for Javy Vazquez, who i think could do pretty well back in the NL.

      they also signed a Japanese pitcher, but i can’t speak to that at all.

      Hudson is injured, right?

      Lowe/Jurrjens/Lowe.

      Braves are a decent bat away from contending.

      they should be all over Dunn.

      • steve (different one)

        by contending, i just mean sticking around the divisional race for most of the summer.

        i still think they are behind the Mets and the Phillies.

        • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          “i still think they are behind the Mets Marlins and the Phillies.”

          Fixed.

          • steve (different one)

            i like your moxy but i don’t see it.

            Mets still have a pretty fabulous core with Reyes/Wright/Beltran/ Santana.

            • http://www.new.facebook.com/home.php?ref=home#/profile.php?id=594331910&ref=name Jamal G.

              Chipper Jones > David Wright.
              Brian McCann > Jose Reyes.
              Carlos Beltran > the entire Braves outfield.
              The Braves’ pitching staff (with a healthy Raphael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez) > the Mets’ pitching staff.

              • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

                Yeah.

                1) Phillies
                2) Marlins
                3) Braves
                4) Mets
                5) Nationals

                Omar definitely gets fired at some point this year.

              • Reggie C.

                Brian McCann is NOT better than Jose Reyes. How do you even make that comparison?? One’s a catcher, the other is a SS. They’ve got different hit tools. They’ve got different speed levels. They serve different functions.

                Reyes is second only to Hanley among SS in baseball.

                • jsbrendog

                  jimmmy rollins is better than reyes.

                • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

                  Brian McCann is NOT better than Jose Reyes. How do you even make that comparison??

                  Who would you rather have, McCann or Reyes? I’ll take McCann.

            • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

              My retort:

              HanRam/Uggla/Hermida/Maybin + the best pitching staff in the NL East, easily (Johnson/Nolasco/Sanchez/Volstad/Miller/VandenHurk/Badenhop/De La Cruz/Nunez/Lindstrom/Ceda) + Logan Morrison and Matt Dominguez could both come up in ’09.

              Outside of the four Mets you just named (plus Putz and Pelfrey), that team is a mess.

              • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

                Yeah … there’s zero chance 19yr old Matt Dominguez comes up in ’09. Otherwise, you’re spot on.

                • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

                  Okay, perhaps I was a bit aggressive there. However, Jorge Cantu can hold the fort down for him very well.

              • steve (different one)

                hey, i hope you’re right.

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        they should be all over Dunn.

        Amen to that. Plus, tell me Chipper Jones and Adam Dunn aren’t totally awesome offseason Lake of the Ozarks hunting buddies. That signing has Braves Tomahawk Chop Macon GA giddiness written all over it.

        They’d love him down there like how they love Waffle House and Bass Pro Shops.

        • dane bramage

          Chick Fil Lay is pretty big down here also…….as well as Sconey’s.

          • jsbrendog

            mmmmmmmmm waffle fries

  • Bo

    And people are shocked at this?

    Why do you continue to doubt Boras?

    • steve (different one)

      who is “shocked”?

  • Januz

    This is a positive signing for the Yankees. Derek Lowe will not be pitching at Citi Field or worse, Boston. All we need is to see Manny to stay in LA, or go to SF, and Oliver Perez, to leave the Mets, and go to a team like the Reds or Brewers, and it will be a perfect offseason for Brian Cashman.

    • jsbrendog

      why does it matter in any way shape or form who pitches at shitty field? (see what i did there?)

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        ICWUDT

        • jsbrendog

          again, :head explodes:

        • RichYF

          I have such a heart on for you right now.

          • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

            “heart on”?

            really?

    • Bo

      What does Brian Cashman care about who the Mets sign? How does that affect his off season plan?

    • I Remember Celerino Sanchez

      Change “Oliver Perez to leave the Mets” to “Oliver Perez signs a big-money contract to stay with the Mets” and your post will be perfect.

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        I agree. The two most awesome Oliver Perez related things for the Yankees would be for him to resign with the Mets or, better yet, the Red Sox. I would jizz in my pants if Perez ended up in Boston. He and Diasuke could compete with each other to see who can break the record for most walks allowed in a single season. His ERA in Fenway might break double digits.

        • I Remember Celerino Sanchez

          Don’t tease me by mentioning Ollie to Boston. That’s just plain mean.

  • Un-Named Yankee Source

    OK, so the Braves are in. They have their pitching now. Chipper is on his last legs. I believe that a low cost guy like Nady is the ideal fit, for a win now team. The Yanks can use the roster spot on the 40 man anyways. Perhaps get 2 quality prospects in return for him? Perhaps Hernandez/Schafer and someone else. Seems to be win/win for everyone.

    • Reggie C.

      Chipper on his last legs?? No. Freaking. Way.

      • jsbrendog

        chipper on his back trying to make more illegitimate children and name them after other ballparks he hits well in.

        there ya go, fixed.(i dont knowhow to do the fancy schmancy cross out so eat me)

        • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          [strike][/strike]

          Except < instead of [

          • jsbrendog

            ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh thank you

          • usty

            I know we’re supposed to be smart here. But c’mon. It even tells you how to do it in grey below the reply box.

            • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

              I wasn’t elected to read, I WAS ELECTED TO LEAD!!!!

              • usty

                Ah…leave it to me in a post calling out someone else’s smartness to reply to the wrong comment. Haha. I meant it for JSBrendog.

                (Lead like you did in Fantasy Football correct?)

                • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

                  (h/t to usty)

      • http://www.puristbleedspinstripes.com Rebecca-Optimist Prime

        Dude, Chipper’s been playing since before I started following baseball…to me, anyway, it seems like he’s been around forever!

      • A.D.

        Given that he won a batting title last year & OPS+ 174, it appears he’s far from his last legs

        • http://www.puristbleedspinstripes.com Rebecca-Optimist Prime

          Didn’t he hit like .400 into June or something?

          • http://www.new.facebook.com/home.php?ref=home#/profile.php?id=594331910&ref=name Jamal G.

            Yup, he dipped below .400 (.394) in a June 19th game at the Ballpark in Arlington with an 0-for-4 outing.

            • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

              Chipper is incredible. I really didn’t realize how good he was until I peeped his BR page a few days ago. He’s failed to go at least .300/.400/.500 only THREE times in his career. Holy shit.

              • http://www.puristbleedspinstripes.com Rebecca-Optimist Prime

                As BP says, the question isn’t whether or not Chipper’s going to the hall, but whether he’ll get in on the first ballot.

              • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

                I can’t wait for him to also be a non-unanimous Hall of Famer.

                • http://www.puristbleedspinstripes.com Rebecca-Optimist Prime

                  Oh you know, it’s going to be one of the Mets beat guys that holds out…

                  Because that IS something the NY press would totally do.

              • http://twitter.com/OldRanger Old Ranger

                Chipper will be 37 this year, sometime (i think).

            • jsbrendog

              0-4 in arlington? bust

              • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

                Good point. I didn’t know going 0-4 in Arlington was even possible. That’s like Bill Gates not getting laid at a whorehouse.

                Chipper fail.

              • http://www.new.facebook.com/home.php?ref=home#/profile.php?id=594331910&ref=name Jamal G.

                Heh, seriously. How do you go 0-for-4 in that place?

  • Evan in NYC

    Best of luck to Derek Lowe. Hopefully he can continue to post sub 4.00 ERAs in the NL.

  • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

    wow,color me surprised. The NL East is now wide open.

    • jsbrendog

      and the nl west will msot def nto have a winnder above 500 at this point

      • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

        Ha, probably not.

  • Dave

    I wouldnt exact;y call the mets off season one of futility? They landed two of the best closers in baseball when healthy and have a shot to have one of the best bullpens in the national league. I think the mets have done more to improve their team than almost any other team outside of the yanks mainly because their pen was the weakest part of their team last season and they improved it dramatically this off season.

    Meanwhile, i agree pettitte may now deserve 12 mil because lowe is being overpayed by the braves. Now that the braves were desperate enough to give lowe a contract he probably wont live up to, the yanks will have to suck it up and elevate their offer to sign pettitte. I also think the yanks should take another look at sheets- Who knows what he is looking for at this point but i cant imagine it is the same contract he desired two months ago with the complete lack of interest. The mets will sign perez and the only ones in the mix for sheets seem to be the rangers and maybe the brewers. With that kind of interest, the yanks should see what sheets is looking for, go back over the medical records and determine is the salary they can now offer him is worth the risk. Despite what his reports say, sheets still pitched 200 innings before coming out in sept for a minor injury. I cant imagine that the forearm injury is the reason for such concern.

    • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      Here were the Mets goals for the offseason:

      A) fix the bullpen
      B) find an upgrade over Oliver Perez
      C) find an upgrade over Pedro Martinez
      D) add a good corner OF bat or two to plug the two holes on either side of Beltran
      E) find an upgrade on or a taker for Luis Castillo, or at least find some way to salvage the black hole that is 2B
      F) get a real catcher from somewhere

      Looks like 1 hit and 5 misses.

      • Jay CT

        Well they did get Tim Redding to replace Pedro…

  • Un-Named Yankee Source

    So, ….Chipper Jones

    Player: Chipper Jones – 10 / 3B
    Full Name: Larry Wayne Jones
    Born: 04/24/1972 ……………..almost 37 years old
    Birthplace: DeLand, FL
    Height: 6’4″ Weight: 230
    Bats: Switch
    Throws: Right
    College: N/A
    MLB Debut: 09/11/1993

    How much longer do you think that he will be playing? in the NL, with the Braves? 1-3 more years?

    • jsbrendog

      i’d go 2 (if he gets injured) to 4

  • Un-Named Yankee Source

    Why are we so worried about getting a #5 right now? …if we wait until mid season, we will know if:

    -Our young guns can cut it
    -How far a lead we will have in the East
    -Whom will be available as a rental
    -Salary Dumps

    Money aside……….is Pettitte worth retarding Hughes/Kennedy/Aceves development? Right now they would be starting the season with minimal pressure. Pettitte WAS a nice honorable guy, but the entire HGH thing really brought a black cloud over the stadium.

    • Rob in CT

      There is no “Aceves development.” Aceves is what he is – a finished product. Hughes and IPK (moreso Hughes), on the other hand, yeah. Decent question. My answer:

      Joba will only be giving the team ~150 innings. Hughes can fill in the rest, and also be the 1st in line to be an injury replacement/spot starter. Otherwise, he can work on stuff at AAA. I dunno if that retards his development.

      The team always seems to need 6-7 starters.

      • Mac

        KLaw seems to think that Joba will be able to give the team something more like 170 innings, give or take. His logic being that there seems to be a trend that reliever innings are high-stress on the arm and so should really count as double (I am just quoting him, but he seemed not to be pulling this out of his ass)). So if you combine Joba’s 60 as a starter plus his 40 innings as a reliever (x 2), you get 140 innings. The Verducci line for him is then somewhere about 170.

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        162 games * 6 innings (from the starter) = 972 innings

        CC – 200 innings
        Wang – 200 innings
        Joba – 150 innings
        Burnett – 175 innings (likely), 200 innings (we hope)

        200+200+150+175 = 725
        972-725 = 247 innings left

        If we add Andy, say he gives us 175 innings. That’s still 72 innings for Hughes, Aceves, or Kennedy.

        I’m good with adding Andy and allowing Joba’s eventual shutdown, the inevitable tight hamstring or barking shoulder or tired arm of someone to find room for Hughes and Kennedy. There will be room.

        • Rob in CT

          Exactly.

          Plus, I think they should be looking at resting CC down the stretch (push him back a day here or there, or just pull him pretty early), b/c he’s been worked HARD over the past couple of years. Having Pettitte will help them do that.

      • http://twitter.com/OldRanger Old Ranger

        True but, we have more depth this year then we did last year. Last year we had Phil, IPK and Joba, Joba made it the others didn’t. This year we have Phil, IPK, Aceves, Coke and Giese and even (Oh, hell can’t recall his name) Mac???? Last year when they failed we had to pick-up outsiders (because our guys weren’t ready/quality), this year we have better choices in our system. A couple guys would be given the chance to start, if Phil/Aceves weren’t on the team, so I like our depth.

    • http://twitter.com/OldRanger Old Ranger

      About the way I have felt about it all year, except for the last sentence. I may change it around a bit, not much;

      -Our young guns can cut it—true, like this one
      -How far a lead we will have in the East—take that one out
      -Whom will be available as a rental—-change whom to who (nit picker)
      -Salary Dumps—true, to a point.

      Other then that little correction or two, not bad…more like addition by subtraction.

      • Un-Named Yankee Source

        well, Old Ranger, thanks for the grammer check.

        The only way we should get another FA pitcher is if it is on a Minor League Deal.

        Otherwise, let it ride!

        I do believe that we can get some good value from a Nady trade. I hope he would qualify as a Type A FA next year. That should make him appealing to the Braves. Kinda like Tex did to them previously. If we could pry a stud outfielder out of their system and another prospect, …we would be crazy not to do it.

        Finding a 5th outfielder is not as hard as finding “A” Procpects.

        • http://twitter.com/OldRanger Old Ranger

          There are a lot of people throwing out this trade and that. The problem I have with that is; 1) it is impossible to read another teams needs. 2) there aren’t very many bad GM’s anymore. 3) we (as fans) don’t really know all the prospects as well as Yankees do therefore, we may think one guy is great…in reality, he is all press make-over. Besides, as we all well know…AA, AAA guys are not sure fire to make it in the Show, no matter what their press clippings say.

          • Jay CT

            Well said, however, it will not prevent people from saying, “Melky Cabrera for Grady Sizemore and we will pay Melky’s contract…”

            • http://twitter.com/OldRanger Old Ranger

              This is true!

  • Rob in CT

    This does seem to up Pettitte’s fair market value…

  • Dave

    There is an easy way to solve the 40 man roster situation, get a starting pitcher and sign jaun cruz. All we have to do is make a trade for harang by giving up one of our fill in starters like aceves, coke or geise. If the yanks trade aceves along with nady who they really want and a decent bullpen piece like jose veras who can serve as a very good setup man in the NL , they can possibly land a solid arm capable of pitching 200 innings and still young at 30 years old like Aaron Harang.

    It doesnt have to be harang nut he seems like an obvious choice. We dont want harang for three years? Also, relatively simple -after the season when hughes is ready to start permanently, we put him on the trade block with a two year/around 26 mil contract. Many teams would be interested in a solid starter with a 2 year, 13 mil per year contract especially if he regains his rightful place as a solid front of the rotation starter next year. If aceves, nady and veras isnt attractive to the brewers, we could add in or replace a player with someone like humberto sanchez, kevin whelan or even ian kennedy if we can land a very solid starter. We have soo much talent taking up space on the 40 man that could have little if any impact on the yankee club next season. Why not use that value to land a much needed starter to fill innings while clearing roster spots in the process?

    Then, we can sign a guy like jaun cruz to replace veras. iF we make the trade and sign jaun cruz for 3 mil next season, we will have taken off 5 mil for nady and added 11 mil for harang and 3 mil for cruz – only adding a total of 9 mil in salary while vasting improving our bullpen and rotation in the process. We also eliminate one more player off the roster, adding roster flexibility. If the reds would be willing to take a starting rightfielder/first baseman with righty power, a capable third or fourth starter in the NL (aceves or kennedy) and a solid bullpen arm who could pitch the eighth inning like veras or sanchez or whelan for harang then we should definitely make the trade and subsequently add jaun cruz for our own bullpen.

    • http://twitter.com/OldRanger Old Ranger

      To coin a phrase, “That makes my head spin!”

      Come on Dave…
      Better bloggers then you and I have come up with trade scenarios that maybe had a chance…but not much. We are Yankee fans so, no matter how hard we try, it always comes out better for us then for the other team. If one can learn to compartmentalise, then it…..forget it, to complicated.
      Besides why trade some of our better (maybe) pitchers for one guy we will flip next year?

  • Dave

    I meant reds obviously when i said brewers.

    I also forgot to say that if we get harang and he pitches well this coming season we could land a position we need next off season like a starting catcher or centerfielder if montero or ajax are not ready.

    • Un-Named Yankee Source

      I am not a huge Juan Cruz guy but I like your plan!

      How about getting Isringhausen and Cordero? kinda like Wettland/Rivera from years back. Sure would be nice to through Isringhausen in the Mets faces to compete with Putz/KRod.

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        How about getting Isringhausen and Cordero? kinda like Wettland/Rivera from years back. Sure would be nice to through Isringhausen in the Mets faces to compete with Putz/KRod.

        [ eyes roll back in head, skull bursts into flames, heart explodes in chest ]

        • Un-Named Yankee Source

          and your better idea is?

          • Jay CT

            Better idea? How about STAY WITH WHAT WE HAVE. WHICH WAS A STREGTH LAST YEAR, PROMOTE FROM WITHIN IF NEED BE! Izzy? Seriously?

            And as for that big long post from Dave (which are getting quite common, but he is still off topic), would you trade CMW for three possible helpful guys? Why do people always think you can trade a quarter for 5 nickels? Its better to have the star, and the Reds want the star. 1 year of Nady, along with the unknown Aceves and Veras? Would YOU do that deal if they offered that package for CMW?

    • MattG

      The Reds will not take Nady, Aceves and Giese for Harang. Harang is Cinn #1 starter.

      The best offer I would make would be Nady, Kennedy and one of the interchangeable masses–Robertson probably has the best value. That might get it done, but again, Harang is their #1 starter. That’s a hard one to sell the fan base.

  • Un-Named Yankee Source

    This just looks weird!

    http://mlb.mlb.com/index.jsp

    • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      WHAT?!?!?! HE’S WEARING PHIL PLANTIER’S #29?!?!?!?!? THAT UNGRATEFUL BASTARD!!!!!11!!1!!111!!!!!!

  • drew

    I dont know how this deal shows that Andy is worth more than ten million.
    1, Lowe is a year younger which is kind of irrelevant.
    2, Andy pitched 7 less innings
    3, Andy allowed nearly 30 more earned runs
    4, Andy allowed 40 more hits, 10 more walks and his ERA was 4.54 vs. 3.24

    • MattG

      Well, it shows me Andy should be able to get 3/30 if he wanted to, and if he is willing to sign short term, he should get a boost on that AAV.

      But I don’t want him. Pound rocks, Andy.

      • emac2

        Who do you think would be willing to give Pettitte that deal?

        • MattG

          I think that’d be a fairly long list, actually, headed by LAD and the Mets.

  • Un-Named Yankee Source

    BIG SHOCKER>>>

    This just in……

    Braves Interested In Nady, Swisher
    By Tim Dierkes [January 13 at 12:29pm CST]
    Jerry Crasnick and Ken Rosenthal are both reporting today that the Braves have interest in Yankees outfielders Nick Swisher and Xavier Nady. It’s not the first time we’ve heard the Braves connected to the two. The general feeling is that the Yankees are more willing to trade Nady, and the Braves may have to compete with the Mets for him.

    • mustang

      Can I ask what do the Mets or Braves have that the Yankees need?

      • Jay CT

        Sure. The Braves have 3 legit CF prospects

        • mustang

          Can you name them please I don’t know much about them.

  • mustang

    “It seems that I WAS WROING, and it seems that the market for starting pitching is a bit more robust than the market for corner outfielders.”

    “than $10 million for one year of Pettitte is indeed to low. It shouldn’t take Derek Lowe money to lock up Andy, but it may take $12-$13 million guaranteed.”

    Ladies and gentlemen the world is coming to an end.
    LOL

  • emac2

    Why is every bad signing used as a market for the fair market value of another player?

    The braves could pay Lowe 30 million a year and Pettitte still wouldn’t be worth 12 mil and I would still rather use the money on something else.

    Why don’t we use actual comparable one year deals like Smoltz or Penny?

    • http://twitter.com/OldRanger Old Ranger

      The braves could pay Lowe 30 million a year and Pettitte still wouldn’t be worth 12 mil and I would still rather use the money on something else.

      Why don’t we use actual comparable one year deals like Smoltz or Penny?
      —————————————————————

      That make to much sense! Good thinking, if one is to be paid at worth value, then pay him his worth…it isn’t $12 or $13mm. If it takes that amount to sign him…don’t!

    • Ed

      Why is every bad signing used as a market for the fair market value of another player?

      Because almost every signing that isn’t a huge bargain is considered bad by the fans. To the rest of baseball, ignoring the occasional huge outlier (say, Zito), the deals are what defines the market.

      Why don’t we use actual comparable one year deals like Smoltz or Penny?

      Smoltz only pitched in a few games last year before having very severe shoulder surgery. The odds are high that he’s never an effective pitcher again.

      Penny missed most of the season with a shoulder injury and is at high risk for needing surgery.

      Pettitte’s only similarity is that he had minor shoulder aches that the team didn’t think were significant enough to warrant giving him time off until after they were eliminated from the playoffs.

      You might as well throw in Pavano and Hampton as your comparisons if you’re going to use Smoltz and Penny, they’re only slightly less reasonable.

  • Michael

    Without Lowe, the Mets might have lost the NL East: http://jumpinginpools.blogspot.....-east.html

  • Dave

    My post wasnt completely off topic as I was responding to the 40 man roster post from a little earlier today. I cant get to the computer every second and I wanted to respond to that one but i didnt want to post it in a thread that no one was looking at any more like i am probably doing right now.

    I would deal nady, kennedy and robertson for harang. With harang, kennedy becomes expendable and we have numerous other pitchers who can fill the pen. I think that is fair.

    • drew

      I have been preaching a deal for harang. after a down year last season I expect him to rebound and be a top k leader in the league like usual.

  • Jay

    If you’re going to look for comparable deals, then be sure to compare Pettitte to a pitcher with similar stats after the All Star Break:

    5.35 earned runs per 9 innings pitched
    79 innings pitched
    96 hits
    25 bases on balls
    1.53 walks and hits per inning pitched
    .302 average batting average against him allowed

    By comparison, Derek Lowe had a 2.38 ERA after the All Star Break and finished very strong even on the road beginning with his August 26th start in Washington.

    I think you’ll find that pitchers with stats like Pettitte’s in the second half got contracts with very low bases and bonuses based on innings pitched, etc. because teams view them as very likely being injured. But maybe I’m wrong. Please list pitchers that have signed this offseason with statistics that bad who got contracts of $10 million or more.

    By the way, if you believe it was because of the poor Yankee fielding — which was definitely lousy — then compare him to the other Yankee pitchers who started two or more games after the All Star Break. And only Sidney Ponson, Darrel Rasner and Carl Pavano had higher ERAs, at 6.29, 6.02, and 5.77, respectively. If you want to say that he should get a little more than them, I would agree. But I don’t think that gets you up to anything even remotely approaching $10 million.

    The Yankees don’t know if he’s injured, and neither do any of us. But what we do know is that if the Yankees pay him $10 million and give him a spot on the roster and it turns out that he is injured, and so the Pettitte of 2008 after the All Star Break is the best they get, the dominos start to fall. Why go there if they believe that they can make other lower risk arrangements (by trade, free agency or anything else)?

    The answer, of course, is Pettitte’s upside if he’s healthy. But those other alternatives might have similar upside, too. And if Pettitte isn’t just blowing smoke you know where when he says it’s the Yankees or nowhere and that it’s not about the money, why won’t he take a lower $ deal, prove himself and get the big contract next year? Answer: Because for him, it IS about the money. And even in this very expensive market for pitching, I suspect that nobody is willing to pay him even $10 million for the reasons that I’ve outlined.

    Maybe an organization like the Red Sox that get it right most of the time in their analysis of pitching could figure out if he’s healthy. But I can’t imagine even them not doing what they usually do and giving him a low base and performance bonuses which, after all, is what they usually do when there’s that kind of uncertainty. And if you think they would let sentimentality get in the way, you need look no farther than Jason Varitek to see otherwise.

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