just kidding. good post.

Okay, let’s say you’re the, um, Blue Jays. You can sign Manny, Hudson, or Sheets and lose the 20th pick in the draft. Since 2007-2008 are too recent to make good determinations, let’s go back to 2004-2006 and see what kind of players are available between pick 20 and the next time you’d be on the clock (say, pick 75).

2004: Phil Hughes, Blake DeWitt, Gio Gonzalez, Huston Street, Reid Brignac, Yovani Gallardo, Hunter Pence, Dustin Pedroia, Kurt Suzuki, Wade Davis
2005: Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Garza, Joey Devine, Colby Rasmus, Travis Buck, Luke Hochevar, Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie, Michael Bowden, Chase Headley, Yunel Escobar
2006: Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, Chris Tillman, Brett Anderson, Kevin Mulvey, Trevor Cahill

Now, I know what you’re thinking. You’re thinking to yourself, “Tommie, non of those guys are as good as Ben Sheets when he’s healthy.” And that’s true. But, even if you get Ben Sheets at a tremendous discount, you’re still getting, what, 3-4 years of Ben Sheets vs. maybe 8 years of Matt Garza or Joba Chamberlain or Hunter Pence or Colby Rasmus. It’s a gamble either way. The reason most teams are deciding not to gamble is:
1) the prospect will be much, much, much cheaper and under team control much, much longer
2) if your team is not ready to compete for the pennant now, you may be paying for Ben Sheets in 2009-2011 when your team sucks vs. paying Colby Rasmus in 2012-2019 when you have a better squad around him.

Draft picks are a gamble, they may not work out. Free agent additions are a gamble, they may get hurt or age badly or have their production fall off a cliff. The FA vet is a better bet to produce at big league levels than the typical 20th pick of the draft, but at a far higher cost in dollars for a far shorter window of time.

I can see why tons of teams wouldn’t pay Orlando Hudson even 5M a year (half his original asking price) even though he’ll probably outperform whomever you draft with a pick in the bottom of the first round: the margin between his performance and the draft picks performance may be less than the margin between what you spend for Hudson and what you spend for the draft pick, and said production may come at a time when your team has no constructive use for it.

http://faceoff.lohudblogs.com/

super two.