Jan
25
Open Thread: Comparing Aces
By
(click image for a larger view)
Win value data from Fangraphs. This BtB post was my inspiration.
Here’s your open thread. Feel free to talk about the above chart, the NHL All-Star Game, whatever you like. Just be nice.
137 Comments»
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So we can say we have the best pitcher in NY!
Considering CC was better than Santana in 2007 in the AL, and in 2008 in the NL, I’d say yes.
For what it’s worth, win values are adjusted for league, park, the whole nine.
A lot of the movement up and down on the chart has to do with how many innings were pitched (obviously).
But what’s interesting is looking where the inning totals stayed relatively the same. Johan Santana’s workload was pretty consistent (excluding 2002 and 2003) but his value has decreased dramatically.
If you put Halladays innings pitched against his win value graph it would be hard to figure out which was which. That means he has been pretty consistently filthy good as long he has been healthy.
Then there is CC Sabathia whose workload increased these past two years, but has been more consistent with his workload. He has just been pitching better each year. That’s exciting.
Interesting comparison.
Guys, I know this is weird, but I think my ability to read a baseball statistical table is going to help me with my nightmare/thesis class.
Weird, huh?
Interesting graph. I don’t think anyone expects Sabathia to replicate his second half from last year.
No, not at all. Sabathia’s career trend in the graph looks very much like a bell curve that peaked last year. If he performs like he did over the last seven years during the next seven years of his career, the Yanks will have gotten there moneys worth.
That would be cool if he did perform like the second half of last year., even though it probably won’t happen.
He could for a stretch of games but it would be damn near impossible for him to match that and especially in our division. It is unreasonable to bet on him doing that.
Agreed but he will still be called a bust contract for the Yanks.
Good article debating where A-Rod and Tex should hit. For all of the people who don’t believe in lineup protection there’s some info in there that show otherwise.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/s.....m-to-solve
Ya I read that earlier. At first I said Tex 3rd when we signed him but now I’m thinking that A-Rod should get the most at bats.
The difference in at bats is pretty minimal. I think it comes out to 2-3 total bases more per season if A-Rod bats 3rd and gets the extra at bats. I also remember a study that showed minimal impact by lineup protection.
I think the bigger factor is the differences between Tex and A-Rod. In terms of OBP they are almost equal, but A-Rod has better power numbers. To score the most runs, you want as many high OBP hitters in front of your sluggers as possible. Look at it this way. Who do you want as the three hitters in front of A-Rod:
Gardner-Damon-Jeter or Damon-Jeter-Tex
Obviously there will be more baserunners on in the second scenario, which translates into more runs when A-Rod crushes his meaningless 1st inning home runs.
There’s a similar argument in the NL for hitting the pitcher 8th – it actually averages out to more runs over the course of the season.
Read the article and see the difference in Chipper’s slugging %. Protection matters.
If you look at the game logs, his SLG peaked in early May (at about 735) and then declined gradually the rest of the season to end at 574.
His line from May 8 through the trade was .333/.457/.510/.967
His line from the trade through the end of season was .352/.481/.516/.997
Basically, Chipper had an insane April, and then settled into typical production after that.
.352/.481/.516/ that’s typical production?
I was specifically referring to this season’s production, in regards to protection. Also, his career line is .310/.408/.548, so that’s not a ridiculous line for Chipper.
Wow, Dustin Pedroia’s brother, Brett Philip, has been arrested on suspicion of child molestation: http://www.dailydemocrat.com/c.....ost_viewed
Yeah I saw. We choose not to touch that subject here on RAB. No pun intended.
Yeah, I saw it on NoMass the other day but never actually read the article, I did not know that was his actual brother ’till I did.
I wonder if he looks likes Dustin.
It’s sad but you know NoMaas is probably going to do something on it.
Heh, that’s where I got it from. The comments weren’t that bad, though.
I went on the NoMaas message board and it said:
“Users browsing this forum: Jamal G.”
Yeah, I just use the same name across all baseball site, saves time.
Heh, somebody on the NoMaas message board posted a picture of a Pedroia bobble head and wrote “I didn’t know they made life sized bobble head dolls.”
http://tinyurl.com/2fyybt
that was random but I love doing that. A bunch of us did it at sleep away camp once, totally made a mess.
The laugh at the end had me cracking up.
Santana who?
Project Prospect has ranked the ten-best center fielders in baseball (Grady Sizemore and Bossman Jr. top the list): http://projectprospect.com/art.....s-under-30
*Oh, Rebecca, search “Dominance Factor” over at PP, that stat maybe something akin to what you were looking for.
They need to tweak that dominance factor a bit, but it’s a nice stat. Weight strikeouts more, etc. Maybe include homeruns, park factors, etc.
My friend Mike who writes for FriarForecast and his own blog, Fire Jim Leyland, toyed around with his own version of Dominance Factor. Next time I talk to him, I’ll ask him about how he did it.
Thanks!
Sox add second year to Varitek offer:
http://tinyurl.com/cepftp
Thank you Theo “Elite GM” Epstein
As a backup catcher for the Sox, I don’t know that he’d be that bad. He’d only suck 1-2 days a week, and you’d still get all of the intangible benefits from having him around (you know, if there are any).
Of course, they still don’t have a starter, so maybe this is a bad move for them…
It will be no shock if Varitek returns to Boston. What I find interesting is after the supposed “anger” over the Manny and Tex business last year, they would continue to do business with Boras. They have shown themselves to be total phonies, and untrustworthy. If they were really angry, and were about standing up for principles and Epstein was the “Genius” everyone makes him out to be, they would have said no to Veritek, and traded for a catcher instead (Ex: Bucholtz for Laird).
They won’t trade Bucholz for Salty or Teagarden, you think they should have traded him for Laird?? They’re 1000 times better off with one or two year of Tek than trading the laptop thief for Gerald freaking Laird.
The only guy it would make sense to give up Buchholz in a package for would be for the elite catcher types like Mauer, McCann, and Weiters. But obviously none of those guys are going anywhere anytime soon.
Add Martin in there, that would probably make sense.
Whoa whoa whoa- If the Sox want to trade Mr Laptop for Laird, I say good for the Sox. Theo would be a GENIUS if he pulled that move off, as I am sure there is something that adds to Lairds grit that we Yankee fans don’t see, and Buchholz is just not a good guy, as evidenced by his need for computers.
Exactly you would want Salty, Ramirez, or Teagarden before Gerald Laird. The tigers traded for Laird because the postpect cost wasnt that high
They can’t really stop doing business with an agent, that would have legal ramifications. Maybe they shy away from his players, but they do need a catcher, and Boras represents so many top guys you couldn’t shy away that easily
I don’t know about any legal ramifications, but your last part is absolutely right. You can’t avoid Boras if you want the top talent.
4 NO HITTAS!
I just read that story and it is extremely pathetic. I just hope people do not take cheap shots at Pedroia and the Red Sox over it. There are few crimes worse than child molestation, and there is nothing humorous in it. This guy, if guilty, needs to be locked up, and treated for his demented behavior
I agree that it’s extremley serious, though I’m more a fan of ‘this guy is probably diseased and needs some serious medical help’, because I refuse to believe that humans can be that innately evil…
I wish people were not that evil, but history shows they are. Hitler, Stalin, Saddam, Charles Manson, and serial killers like David Berkowitz come to mind. There is no excuse for child abuse and molestation. I do not subscribe to the excuse “I was abused as a child”. My attitude is simply this: If you did not like it done to you, why do it to else? Finally, if someone enjoys kiddie porn, or thinks about hurting others, then it is up to them to get the help that they need before taking actions that can ruin lives (including their own).
Actually, according to the cycle of violence theory, it makes perfect sense that the abusee becomes the abuser as they become mentally scarred and need to take out their frustrations. It is the reason that this type of behavior happens. Roughly 45 percent of all child molestation happens from family members, and another 42 percent come from neighbors or friends of the family. Therefore, roughly 87% come from people who are close to the home. Its best to talk to your children as early as possible about this.
I am working on my LCSW (Licensed Clinical Social Worker) and opening my own practice. So Januz, your attitude is completley wrong. It is very understandable, but wrong none the less. We seek out like minded people, which is why children who witness abuse end up either abusing their wives or falling victim to an abusive husband. I say husband because 95% of documented domestic violence is Man to Woman
Here’s a picture of him: http://tinyurl.com/ckhpa4
How has “Monk” not gotten old at this point?
Anyone else royally pissed that the NHL ASG is on f-king Versus?! Why put on an all star-game if half the people can’t watch it anyway? NHL is so retarded sometimes.
The score would also seem to indicate that they forgot goalies.
I watched the first 1.5 periods. It’s not all that exciting, there’s zero attempt at defense.
I know, I’ve watched them in years past. Still, it’s gotta be better than the crap on TV right now….
I watched part of the intro of the plyaers while I was eating dinner. No Whalers, no care.
Who knows, maybe the network executives think that their Sunday night programs are a better value than paying for the rights to broadcast the NHL All-Star Game and having only a marginal increase in ratings.
Without Marty, there’s no reason to watch
To all fantasy basketball players: I’m looking to trade Andrew Bogut and sell high on Al Thornton and Charlie Villanueva. If I add Monta Ellis to such a deal, do you think I could get Dwyane Wade or LeBron James with some combination of the four?
If the owner of Wade or James isn’t too bright maybe, but I wouldn’t take all 4 of those guys for Wade or James, nevermind a combination of some of them.
To set the standard, I dealt wade for Kevin Durant and Rashard Lewis (and I haven’t looked back).
I haven’t checked my fantasy basketball team in weeks.
How can any rational person put stock into postseason numbers – let alone making conclusions about a player’s “clutchiness” – when Jeff fuckin’ Weaver can dominate a World Series clincher?
It’s like anything when one tries to draw conclusions: there are always some holes in the logic.
Yeah, but saying that drawing conclusions from the postseason has “some holes” in it, is like saying this is just some unfavorable plastic surgery: http://tinyurl.com/c3cwfe
*True story, that chick actually wanted to look more like a cat because her husband really likes lions.
holy shit.
WHAT THE HELL IS THAT?
SEXY!
I just sat here for a few minutes to figure out why but I really can’t think of a good reason to put faith in post-season numbers.
The funny thing is if you have enough post season appearances and enough ABs, your numbers will be just like…get this…your regular season career numbers.
Take DJ:
Regular season: .316/.387/.458
Postseason: .309/.377/.469
Almost no differences.
Ted Williams:
Regular Season: .344/.482/.634
Postseason:.200/.333/.200
CHOKE ARTIST!!
If Ben Sheets is looking for 2/16, do you guys think the Yankees should sign up for that? Personally, I still want Phil Hughes as the fifth starter, and that’s my most preferred option (yes, even though I believe that Andy Pettitte’s 2008 has been quite exaggerated, I still want Hughes as the #5).
My guess is they don’t, because they don’t want to shell out that much guarenteed.
Should they… probably, have a redic 4th starter, and if he pitches great this year, and you want to open up a rotation slot next year, then trade him
I am SO in at 2/16. Sheets has amazing stuff. Sheets at 2/16 > > > Hughes for the next two years.
Also, for all the well, Sheets will get injured stuff- Hughes will still be available to pitch in his spot even if Sheets did get injured.
You have to start Hughes’s development at some point…so no, no Sheets, no Pettitte.
Why can’t Hughes continue his development in Triple A? Work on his pitches? Work on his command….
He is so young. He doesn’t have to be a Cy Young Winner by 23.
Yea but what does he have left to prove at AAA. I can see him down there for a month or two but not two years.
I agree with both points. I think that Hughes can continue his development in both levels, and that there would be plenty of time if they signed Ben Sheets as you are only gettin 20 starts out of Sheets. Mix in the time off for Joba and Burnett, and you have the perfect amount of starting pitcher. Plus, it is everyones opinion that “having too much starting pitching is a good thing.”
Hughes can develop in AAA, might even be better for him considering how young he is. If can develop his 3rd and 4th pitches further without having to worry about winning every game. Once he feels really comfortable, I’m sure there will be enough innings available for him in the majors; out of Sheets, Burnett, Wang, and Joba (also on an innings limit) I’m sure at least one of them will get hurt for an extended amount of time leaving plenty of innings on the table for Hughes or whichever young gun steps up.
If Sheets is healthy, he could possibly be our number two; that curve is filthy in any league. We’re basically gambling and trying to hit it big with a Sheets signing if we do make that signing.
If you sign Sheets it’s not because you’re looking for a #5 starter, though he might be it. It’s because you’re gambling that he will be healthy and be a top starter at a bargain price.
Exactly.
This. Let’s win a world series. The guy’s stuff is SICK.
Whats up with saying, “This.” I saw it last night too. Does it mean like agreement or something?
Yep, means like I agree or this is a good idea. This is what the Yanks should do.
Those Pedroia’s are such kidders. Enjoy the “Where’s Your Brother?” chants “MVP.”
I sure as heck won’t be chanting that.
Thats a real douchebag thing to say Phil. Would you have that same joke if it was your son that just got exploited?
I surely hope those chants don’t start in any city.
Do you think it or something like it won’t be chanted?
First off use the reply button. Second, you know damn well you are saying it like you would be in favor of it, with the smug “MVP” line at the end. Pedroia had a hell of a year, and probably did deserve that award, thats the first thing. Secondly, there are some lines that should NEVER be crossed.
Someone earlier said something in regards to this type of shit occuring over and over again. This is the problem, is some people think its still a joke. This is the reason shit like this continues and is so difficult to stop. I apologize if it seems I am going off on you, but in the line of work I am in, its a touchy subject. Since October, we have dealt with a 9 month old boy shaken so badly that his brains became smashed against the skull, bruising on the shoulders, ribs, broken clavicle, and a fractured fibula. The baby suprisingly is looking like he will make it, and is in our custody but in the Hospital for Special Surgeries in NYC. Also, a 2 year old was anally raped so badly that they could not stop the bleeding without preforming surgery. The rapist was placed on suicide watch because he felt “so bad” that he did it, and promised never to do it again. How about the people from Guatamalia in Stamford who chose to place their newborn in a black bag and stab it before putting it in the dumpster, because they couldn’t afford the kids they have already. This stuff is not a joke. Baseball is a privledge, a way to escape reality. We are all lucky if our biggest problem is the Yankees losing to the Red Sox.
Jesus Christ dude. Got some real fucked up people in this world, no doubt. Sure as hell a sad thing.
Yeah its sad and its really hard for me to leave the job. I get a bit heated, and I apologize. Its just that is one thing I can’t handle; one thing I can’t tolerate. If RAB were to make a big joke out of it, I very well may had walked away, because yes its embarrassing to Pedroia and all, but there are some innocent kids somewhere getting some shitty stuff done. Think about when you stopped believeing in the tooth fairy, or Santa Clause… or when you first found out Mariano isn’t going to close games forever! Children are only able to be naive for so long in their life. I hate when people take their innocense away.
“or when you first found out Mariano isn’t going to close games forever! ”
Worst. Day. Ever.
Just out of curiousity, where do you work?
Work as an investigator for Department of Children and Families in CT
Hey guys got a question. I buy the Baseball Prospectus every year and LOVE it, but the other night on a Knicks blog I read an article linked to Basketball Prospectus talking about how D’Antoni’s teams play alot better D than people think. My question if you guys know is do they publish a Basketball Prospectus before every season with team by team sections and player analysis just like the Baseball Prospectus????
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....varit.html
Tek deal with DEADLINE
He’ll take it within 24 hours.
If he’s smart
Well he is a
http://media.ebaumsworld.com/p.....bass-1.png
Is there a reason why the belly fat ad is showing up twice? Wasn’t once more than enough guys?
Because the ad market right now is horrendous. Many TV/Radio stations are replaying the same ads twice in a commercial break because those are the only ads they have that are being paid for.
If anyone cares, there is an interview with Tom Verducci on SI.com about the Torre book:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....index.html
The 3rd person narrative stuff just doesn’t fly, I’m sorry. Are we supposed to believe that Verducci (a national writer) was coming up with all these intimate details about the Yankee clubhouse and front office situation?
And maybe I’m not getting this, but why is the “3rd person” any kind of explanation for airing all this stuff? Does he think that players or fans will buy this attempt at distancing himself from his own book? Torre’s name is on the cover, Torre has “Read, re-read and re-read” the book according to Verducci. The literary device looks like something designed to give Torre some cover and still take his pot shots at the people on his enemies list. But it doesn’t fly.
where can we find this book anyway?
Release date is Feb 3rd.
You must make the journey to Mordor.
Just a self-promoting heads up:
The pinch-hitting piece on LoHud is going to be from me tomorrow so check it out and don’t rip me a new asshole.
Hey, congrats! Break a leg!
Be honest, is it about Nick Swisher?
Haha, he and Tex are the focus.
And on a totally unrelated note:
There is so little on TV that I’m watching Iron Chef: America. Awesome.
Dude, the History Channel is showing “Sharpshooters”. They had a guy pick a drop of water out of the air with an arrow.
I spent the whole night watching “Man vs Food”. The guy (Adam something) is a riot, but 3 straight hours of that show and I need a Tums.
Come on idiots! Dumb and Dumber is on TBS!!!
Man, I love Dumb & Dumber.
I can get 70 miles to the gallon on this hog.
Just when I thought you couldnt get any dumber, you go and do something like this., and totally redeem yourself!
You fellas been doing a little boozin’, have ya?
According to the map we’ve only gone 4 inches.
Seriously one of the best comedy movies eva!
Dude that show is the shit.
Congratulations man. Good luck
Just a self-promoting heads up:
The pinch-hitting piece on LoHud is going to be from me tomorrow so check it out and don’t rip me a new asshole.
I’m going to post under some pseudonym and just bash your entire post. Make you feel like an ass.
guess i still don’t understand excel.. lol
Hey Mike, you mentioned the other day that you usually get video games early. Have you gotten FO Manager yet? I’m waiting to hear a review on it before I spend $40 or so on it. Thanks.
No. The place that sells the games early is sticking to the book on this one. I’m not going to get it until Tuesday like everyone else. I should have a review up by Wednesday or Thursday.
That stinks. The one time that I’m contemplating buying the game or not, your video store decides to go by the book. Just my luck.
Swish crushed this.
http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp
That’s weird.
Heh, I don’t know what went wrong but the White Sox announcers are just awesome. One goes, You can put it on the booaard! and then the both of them go YES!
They are such homers, it’s not even funny. They constantly say things like “we should have gotten that call” or “GET OUT!!! GET OUT!!!” when someone hits a deep fly ball.
That is funny though, haha. Is Kay a homer? Honestly I enjoy Kay’s broadcasting, I know I’m in the minority but I find him hysterical sometimes to listen too with some of the things he says. Also when he gets so hyped about A-Rod’s HR’s. “And it’s a monster shot by Alex Rodriguez!!!!!”
Kay’s a homer, but he’s no Hawk Harrelson. Not even close.
Where’s swish on that vid.? All I see is a piece on Manny.
Ya it didn’t link right I messed it up. Hope it works this time.
http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.....5152704464
Nope that ain’t the one. Im going to give up. It is a shot against the Royals.
http://tinyurl.com/cfcg5s
There you go. That was a total meatball pitch. Even I could have hit that one out … of the infield.
Thanks for the link. Wanna talk about an insane radar reading? That’s Brian Bannister on the mound, and according to the TV, he just hit 100!
Am I crazy for wanting Griffey for the bench? We really miss a real veteran presence on the bench and it seems he’ll be super-cheap… That and sign Pettite or Sheets!
-Scott