Open Thread: Startin’ hot (or cold)
By
Last week during his press conference Mark Teixeira said something that caught my attention. He said that as a switch hitter, it takes him longer to get going because he basically has two swings to find during Spring Training, and has to put twice as much work in. It makes perfect sense, but I had never really thought about it like that.
Anyway, that got to me wondering how other players on the team have hit in April compared to the rest of the season during their careers. So, without further adieu…
Jorge Posada, C
April: .280-.371-.502
Rest of Season: .276-.381-.472
Mark Teixeira, 1B
April: .256-.346-.442
Rest of Season: .295-.383-.558
Robinson Cano, 2B
April: .237-.282-.328 (not so funny now, huh Robbie?)
Rest of Season: .311-.341-.488
Derek Jeter, SS
April: .306-.386-.441
Rest of Season: .318-.383-.461
Alex Rodriguez, 3B
April: .311-.391-.611
Rest of Season: .305-.388-.572
Johnny Damon, OF
April: .273-.344-.410
Rest of Season: .291-.354-.439
Xavier Nady, OF
April: .285-.341-.493
Rest of Season: .279-.332-.450
Nick Swisher, OF
April: .253-.370-.481
Rest of Season: .242-.351-.446
Hideki Matsui, DH
April: .268-.363-.416
Rest of Season: .300-.372-.491
I went with Swisher over Brett Gardner/Melky Cabrera in the third outfield spot just because he has a much bigger data sample, that’s all. Feel free to draw your own conclusions from this, there’s not really much of a point to it. Just FYI, I suppose.
Oh, and use this as your open thread for tonight. The Steelers are leading the Bolts, and all local teams are off except the Devils, who are out on the west coast. The season premiere of 24 starts at 8pm, don’t miss it. Talk about whatever, just be nice to each other.
134 Comments»
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The Mason Williams Watch
Figures that A-Rod would be better in April than the rest of the season, more unclutchiness, after all April wins are worth far less than those in May or September
No its because he is a stud.
1) Why didn’t the Giants establish the power running game with Jacobs? If he was hurt why did they keep running him outside? Pound the ball!!
2) Carney….Carney, Carney, Carney. Tynes to kick off, but no Tynes to kick long field goals?
Still hurting, can’t think about Yanks yet.
how can you blame them for going with Carney? guy was MONEY all season. it sucks that he shit the bed today, but i can’t see any reasonable argument for replacing him with Tynes before today’s game.
They had to carry another kicker because of his lousy kickoffs. Tollefson was inactive today, due to injury? I don’t know. A football player wasn’t active today because they were losing so much field position that they felt they had to carry two kickers. The irony? He misses two and gives up field position. Second guess? absolutely. He killed them today.
Could this trade happen?
Yes, and the Nationals would probably trade Austin Kearns or Nick Johnson, who would be backups in New York. They would also have to give up two or three, maybe four minor leaguers as well.
Who?
I have no clue.
My guess is that it would have to be one player from the Jordan Zimmermann class, one from the Leonard Davis class, and one from the Justin Maxwell class.
Maybe even more than that.
http://bleacherreport.com/arti.....her/page/3
—————
Jordan Zimmerman and Justin Maxwell for Nady and Swisher? The Nationals are
thatdeseprate?I would say yes to that. We would take a contract off their hands and add some depth. Would they do it? Doubtful.
Who is playing in our outfield, if we give up Nady & Swisher
I say bring back Justin Christian, and see what he could do in a full season.
so we’d be trading 2 corner outfielder to make our major league team worse, and end up with one good prospect in Jordan Zimmerman (or similar), if they’d give up that much…that won’t happen
I know what you mean. Cashman would do it if he blown away by the offer. Let’s say Kern is part of the deal, I guess he would be the RFer even though he sucks offensively and defensively.
They’d be better of trading just one, and getting some of the prospects mentioned
Could be Yasser Gomez. Maybe Abreu on a one year deal if he comes to his senses, possibly…gulp!…Manny. There are OF out there to be had.
Maxwell sucks, I want no part of him.
http://www.newsday.com/sports/.....5293.story
Do we want to sign these guys? I say yes to both. Opinions?
Ya, why not.
Gomez could be the RFer if Nady and Swisher are traded. I say bring back Justin Christian, and see what he could do in a full season.
I think having Christian and Gardner on the team is a bad idea. I love the idea of starting Gardner, but not Christian. Too risky for a team built to win now IMO
I personally don’t think Marti looks 29. Yasser on the other hand looks it.
Even if there is a slim chance that Gomez can preform better than our tandem of Melky and Brett then I think we should go for it.
Who said anything about trading Nady AND Swisher?
I read they wanted to move One of the two, not both.
With lack of near term outfield prospects, any chance a guy like Malec moves to a corner outfield spot for a shot at the majors?
Does anybody know.. can Dukes actually play a good CF? I don’t think I’ve ever even seen a nationals game.
he was pretty good in RF last year for the nats, bad in CF for the Rays… but not a great sample sizes.
So he wouldnt really be a candidate to hold down CF for a year or so (1.5 ideally IMO) until austin is ready?
If you are the Yankees, and you just acquired him, you might get by in CF for a year (or send him to the minors), and then play him in a corner OF spot going forward.
yea thats what I would be thinking, stick him in CF for a year ot two then let him become a fulltime corner outfielder in 2010
Mike, there’s a wild card to keeping Swisher. Steroids. Any player who saw a significant drop off last season with no apparent injury has to be worrisome, especially one from the Bay area (and specifically the A’s) in this era. Throw in the fact he’s been traded twice in 2 years. Trading teams always know their players better than you do, so that has to be a red flag as well.
I’ve also posted previously how I think Nady is clearly a player coming into his own, whereas I just don’t know what to make of Swisher at this point. I view each players 2008 season as the baseline in the post steroid era, since we have no idea which number before that were real and which were enhanced. I agree we should keep both, but to win this year I’d rather have Nady.
Homeruns were in line with his career average. Career high 20.9% LD average, career low .249 BABIP. Looks like extremely bad luck
When you’re not confident and not swinging the bat well, you have a lot of what looks like “bad luck”.
I heard all last April about how Cano was “just unlucky”. Yet if you watched his ABs and saw how poorly he was driving the ball you could see clearly that he wasn’t the same hitter. Stats like the ones you cited don’t distinguish between a soft line drive and a scorcher, yet that’s often the difference between a base hit and an out. Also, bad luck tends to even out over the course of a season, if you’re hitting the ball well. If it doesn’t, I have to assume something else is going on.
BTW-BABIP is more useful for pitchers than hitters.
I somewhat agree with this point. You’re right, not all LDs are created equal.
I dunno man, when you hit more line drives in a season than you ever have and you have a career low in average of balls in play, I’d say alot of that is attributable to bad luck.
Ignoring the LD stat he his HR totals by the year
2005-21
2006-35
2007-22
2008-24
Pretty uniform, he had a slight bump in 06 but not a brady anderson-type bump in power.
if you combine doubles + HR then you see the 2008 downturn.
Or just look at the 35 point drop off in OPS+ or the 40 point drop in SLG.
well yes, the root of those were lack of hits & lack of doubles. You brought up the steroids issue, and pat looks to dismiss it with the HR totals, but the doubles totals show the power down turn.
Cano had some pretty crappy luck in the first half but at the same time, he had a career low ground ball rate and career high fly ball rate. So it’s part his fault.
I’m pretty certain steroids testing came about prior to 2006, so why would only 2008 count?
Because there are ways around those tests, but after the Clemens fiasco it was shown that you could test clean for years, and still get busted down the road. And the price Clemens and Bonds have paid have made it no longer worthwhile to take the risk anymore. There’s too much heat nowadays.
Also, the Bonds case has had samples seized by the Feds which were supposed to be confidential, but in the end they weren’t. That has to put the fear of God into any player.
I dont buy it. I dont think the Clemens thing is going to make anyone have any added fear over last year. Look at the other players who were exposed and now its forgotten- no one cares anymore. Pettitte, Roberts, Giambi- bunches of players were named in the Mitchell report, and pretty much anyone not named Clemens is forgotten.
You don’t have to buy it, but if one man named Swisher was using and got scared off then that’s all that matters. The fact of the matter is run scoring was down across Baseball last year by 20 runs per team from the previous year. That’s not just some statistical blip, that’s significant.
Acting like steroids don’t matter is to ignore two congressional investigations, IRS and FBI probes, the Bond’s indictment, and the Clemens congressional hearing and 60 Minutes piece. Hope you like it out on that limb of yours, it must be lonely out there.
I meant that fans are starting to not really care that much anymore. Pettitte will sign, and one sentence will be written about steroids. Giambi signed and it wasnt mentioned. I have not seen it brought up about Roberts since Mitchell. And you are making an entirely unfounded assumption based upon an arbitrary cut-off point that you created based upon your feelings as to how much fear there is among the players to decide that Swisher took a steroid related dive. Oh, and one year of data does not a trend make. Even two years isnt enough. But runs scored went up between 2005 and 2006 about the same amount as it went down this season. So did players start shooting up once the formal testing schedule was introduced?
And of course, the question begs to be asked, what about Robbie Cano? A-Rod? Even Jeter! They all saw drop-offs. Are they all guilty until proven innocent?
Back to my original post
“Any player who saw a significant drop off last season with no apparent injury ”
Jeter-Hand injury after the Daniel Cabrera HBP
A-Rod-Missed a month with a quad injury
Cano-Missed the entire 2008 season with Idontgiveashit-itis.
And for the 3rd time, I’m not assigning “Guilt” to Swisher involving steroid use. I’m simply saying that we shouldn’t give him a starting job over Nady until he proves himself here, since we don’t know which numbers were real and which were enhanced in recent years. The drop off raises a “RED FLAG”, that’s all.
Well, how do you know Swisher take a pitch to wrist that screwed him up? Did you watch all of the White Sox’s games last year? Because I can assure you 95% of ChiSox fans have no idea Jeter took that pitch to the wrist and instead think he’s just washed up.
What I do know is Nady’s numbers were up last year and Swisher’s were down. Both are young enough where age isn’t a factor. I go with Nady, and think giving the everyday RF job to Swisher coming off last year is foolish. If he repeats last year’s .742 OPS, it will be a disaster.
Exactly. Its not fair to make statements about Swisher when there is no way that you know all the factors behind his poor performance.
What I do know is Nady’s numbers were up last year and Swisher’s were down.
Right, but maybe that means Nady started taking some new cosmetic PED that they can’t test for yet.
Nope. Nady has improved every year he’s been in the bigs, especially vs Rightes. That’s the steady progression of an improving player.
Swisher on the other hand, posted career lows in BA/H/RBI/SLG/OPS/OPS+. Other than that, he was great.
When has Swisher been linked to steroids?
he played for the A’s!!
He hasn’t, but for the reasons I stated above in this environment its tough to know what was real and what wasn’t. Any player that saw a big drop off last year has to raise an eyebrow, that’s all.
To be clear, I don’t want to trade either player. I like Swisher as a 400 AB 4th OFer type. If he performs, give him Nady’s job next year. I just don’t think its smart to give him a STARTING job coming off a bad year in this environment.
Players are innocent until proven guilty, no? I understand your suspicions but I think they are misplaced in this instance. Swisher didn’t have a role with White Sox last season. Guillen didn’t like him and vice versa. There are stats that suggests he was unlucky last year. I didn’t see any noticeable weight or size loss that results when players come off of steroids.
Even if you want to put the recent environment aside, it still smart to not give him a starting job coming off a bad year. Let him prove himself here.
does anyone have any scouting intel on the 2 Cubans who are posting?
“Martí is not a hard-throwing pitcher as his fastball ranges around 87-90 mph. He relies instead on a slider, sinker, curveball and control.”
From here: http://www.baseball-reference......adel_Marti
Here’s the other guy, but it doesn’t have a cut-and-dry scouting report:
http://www.baseball-reference......sser_Gomez
thanks Mike….it doesnt appear that Marti is more than a # 4/5 candidate, and that Gomez is marginal (unless he has some defensive chops that we dont know about)…….based on this (limited) info, it doesnt appear they are anything to get excited about….unless someone has some better first hand info.
so Marti = Aceves at best (statistically speaking)?
Maybe it was just me, but I saw Aceves hitting 93 and 94 on the gun consistently last year. I must have been dreaming.
statistically speaking
I don’t know, I just might have said that. I must have been dreaming.
That part wasn’t aimed at you, its just that everyone has Aceves as a back of the rotation guy and his stuff looked better than that to me.
Anyway, I was referring to Mikes post on his velocity, the one you were responding to. Fastball MPH is a stat, no? Folks at Fangraphs seem to think so.
My bad. But what I meant by statistically is ERA, WHIP–very basic things like that.
I doubt they will be stars, but if they can be serviceable, why not on a minor league deal. Other teams would probably give them starting jobs, so I don’t see the Yankees as players. When was the last time the Yankees did get a defector?
When was the last time the Yankees did get a defector?
http://tinyurl.com/9qbox2
I believe it was Contreras, before that Andy Morales, who was older than he said, and then sucked.
What about Juan Miranda? I have no idea if he is a defector or not, but he’s Cuban, no?
Yeah, he was a defector, but he didn’t come with that “Major League ready” tag. It was understood that he was going to need a year or two or three in the minors.
If that’s the case then we can count Jesus Montero, Robinson Cano, Wang, Jairo Heredia(sp?), and all the other international signings.
Forgot about him
Off-topic quickly, can you imagine a Cardinals-Ravens Super Bowl???? BORING.
LAME-0
I’d rather choke myself out w/a strap-on.
Oh come on. Like that’s some big punishment for you.
Now that is funny. I would love to see that SB.
Dude, I told you to keep that on the down low.
Parity Bowl.
Maybe the Yankees can pry one of Florida’s position prospects for Nady, as they want to compete next year. I know he’s arbitration elgible but maybe it can work. Maybe Stanton or Skipworth.
Marlins apparently going to sign Pedro Martinez.
Or not: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....a-fit.html
Apparently not. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....a-fit.html
How does this effect the proposed trade?
what proposed trade?
I don’t see the Marlins both taking on payroll, and trading a top prospect.
Given that Atlanta, Mets, and Phillies all look to be quite good this year, and the Marlins are as usual quite young they’re better off just building this year. They could be interested in Nady if they were leading the division at the deadline, or right in the race, but before that I doubt it.
Well, Nady doesn’t have an expensive contract, maybe by Florida’s standards, but maybe if the Yankees took back a contract that’s worth a couple million I can see a trade. Stanton isn’t a can’t miss prospect albeit with a lot of power. Skipworth has question marks too (low level). The Marlins could use offense and have a wealth of position prospects, while the Yankees could use position prospects. Seems like a good fit, no?
No way, you can’t get a guy as far away as Stanton or Skipworth as the centerpiece in a deal. You might as well trade Nady for a scratch off lotto ticket.
And check out Stanton’s strikeout totals. Yikes.
Now we’re cooking! Yea I was thinking the same thing, their value is too low because of their level, but it could replenish the farm with a lot of low level positional studs. Maybe one can break through, but not likely. I’m just bringing up hypothetical situations.
Look at his HR and RBI totals in under 500 games. Look at his OBP and Slug. His 3:1 K to BB ratio can improve. K’s don’t hurt a team as bad as you may think; bad OBP hurts a lot more.
Adam Dunn says hello.
id love me some Andrew Miller.
Keep dreaming.
i never said anything about actualities of trading partners.
i just said id love andrew miller.
of course they arent trading him.
Not happening. The only thing Florida needs is a solid veteran pitcher and BP help. They’re already deep enough offensively.
so I guess Josh Johnson would be out of the question too huh?
Thanks for this info. I’m worried that Tex & CC, who tend to start slow, would get hammered by impatient fans & writers, and hopefully this kind of thing getting around will lessen that.
Year after year I’d see people thinking Bernie’s poor April & May meant he was done. They’d forget that come June or July he’d carry the team for 4 or 6 weeks. And then do it again in Aug-Sept for another 2-3 weeks?
Patience is golden.
The irony is that if A-Rod starts hot, he’s shitty and Mr. April, yet whenever anyone else starts slow, they suck.
Heath Ledger, ftw.
I don’t know who linked to my post last night, but thanks =D
Anyway.
I wonder if the team starts slow in April because the players start slow or if it’s the other way around…and how much the weather has to do with it.
Is it possible for the team to start fast and the players slow?
Point.
And this is where you’ll notice that I’ve had way too much to drink…
Bizzaro MLB.
I thought it was already bizzaro world, no?
True. Just look at the NFC.
/jumps off of GWB
Seconded. Gilbride looked like a great fit for some sort of position with the Raiders today, eh?
Yes, yes he did–like he has all season.
A FUCKING DIRECT SNAP ON THIRD AND SHORT?!
How bout 1st and 5 inside the 20 and throwing three straight downs when Eli was clearly struggling with the wind and Jacobs was getting 5 yards a carry? Just awful. Good thing Plax shot himself though, he was not at all needed today.
I feel like Jacobs wasn’t involved enough today. I know it’s great to have the tandem RBs but when one is doing as well as Jacobs was today, he should’ve played more and gotten the (extreme) lion’s share of the carries
And, Anquan Boldin pls.
Agreed on both. Osi certainly will help too next year with our suddenly non-existent pass rush. We still have a good core and I think we’ll be fine next year, but it’s extremely frustrating to think where this season looked like it was heading a month and a half ago, now that it’s over. Completely different team without Plax.
Osi was looking fly in that suit today. But, yeah, getting him back will be great. Hopefully they can make a play for Boldin or get a play-making WR in the draft–or maybe Steve Smith and Dominic Hixon will learn how to catch.
Another thing we need to look into is a middle linebacker. Antonio Pierce absolutely disappeared in the second half of the season.
See, at least, as a Jets fan, I expect disappointment…
I think it would only be fair to say the rest of the guys would be pumped about our new toys on the team and be inspired to kick some ass.
I think what Rebecca was trying to say, and its an interesting question, is whether its just a coincidence that the Yankees have had a bunch of slow starters the last few seasons, and thats why they start slow, or is it some sort of institutional issue with the club in terms of prep or something that causes the players to start slow, so that the players start slow because the team starts slow. Or I could just be really tired and dizzy prior to my 8 hour final tomorrow.
Eight hour final? Dude….that’s just cruel!
But yes, that is the basic question.
Oooh, I have a blog post for tomorrow…please, guys, don’t steal it! =P
Yeah…law school. Three of my finals are/were 8 hours. Grueling.
…Remind me not to apply.
And here I’d been thinking about taking the LSATs for the hell of it. (What? the job market sucks!)
Could the team start slow because older players may take more time to get into game-shape? Of course that would mean Robbie Cano is about 50 years old…
Another teacher accused of having sex with one of her students. This one’s pretty good looking.
http://www.inquisitr.com/14856.....m-teacher/
Where were all these teachers when I was 13?
Small world. My AP psychology teacher took pictures of students nude at his home.
Small world. My AP psychology teacher took pictures of students nude at his home.
She looks like my sister’s kindergarten teacher…
she looks severe.
I’ve been feeling like the guy on the treadmill of that fantasy football commercial since the aftermath of the Carolina-Arizona game.
[ Jake Delhomme Is A Worse QB Than Tim Couch Name Drop #1 of 100 ] h/t to TSJC
heh.
Anybody think the Giants are in play to land a WR in the 1st round? G-men need a DeSean Jackson type. Jeremy Maclin perhaps?
Heyward-Bey.
they will def be able to get a wr
Just saw on MLBTR that mike young requested a trade how about a cano for young swap help both sides? Just something to talk about….
Young plays crappy defense.
[...] 1/12 Winter Ball Report / Startin’ hot (or cold) [...]
[...] 1/12 Winter Ball Report / Startin’ hot (or cold) [...]
wypozyczalnia samochodow w warszawie
you can wish it. 90% sure its not happening.
it wasn’t true the first time you posted it
you are banned