Rosenthal Roundup: Nady, Pettitte
ByKenny R.’s got a new column up. While he focuses more on John Lackey’s impending free agency and Boston’s potential interest in Adam Dunn, he has a few Yankee-related items as well. First, he speculates via the ever-popular “rival executive” that the Mets could and should add Andy Pettitte at one year and $13 million. Pettitte would add depth to a Mets’ rotation sorely lacking in just that. At that price though, I have to believe the Yanks would step back in to the Pettitte fray.
Rosenthal also adds a note on Xavier Nady. Noting that Nady will probably wind up with Type A free agent status next season, Rosenthal feels that this designation could help the Yanks trade the righty later on this year. With no right-handers other than Manny Ramirez on the market, Nady, at a low price point, is attractive to many suitors, and as Rosenthal writes, “a team could offer him arbitration without fear that his salary would be exorbitant, thus preserving its right to draft-pick compensation.”
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The type A status can only help his trade value
Hey did you all see, Angels avoid arbitration with Chone Figgins
And another one bites the dust…
For those who care: Shelley Duncan cleared waivers and is going back to Scranton.
(Link here to Chad Jennings’ blog: http://community.thetimes-trib.....hted.aspx)
OK, so I just read Mike A.’s previous post more carefully.
In the words of the great Gilda Radner: “Never mind.”
If Adam Dunn goes to Boston, I will fucking cry.
Eh. He strikes out nearly as much as he bonks them, and he’s a horrible defensive fielder.
Aside from giving Ortiz some protection, Boston wouldn’t be doing themselves any favors.
Seriously, CC and AJ will embarrass him in the K category.
And for the same price as Dunn you can get a more complete player in Manny, but we all know he won’t be in Boston.
Manny is much more expensive than Dunn and worse defensively.
He also MASHES THE FUCKBALLS OUT OF IT, BRO!
Couldn’t have said it better
No, no. I LOVE Adam Dunn. If the Yankees missed out on Tex, I wanted Dunn.
Five straight years of 40+ HRs.
100 walks in 6/8 professional seasons
100+ RBI on awful offensive teams
Good home/away splits
I think he’s one of, if not the, most underrated player(s) in all of baseball. He’s like a slightly lesser Harmon Killebrew–low BA, high OBP, many homers.
Any time you add a guy with a career OBP of .381 and a career slugging over .500, you’re making your team better.
But, Ben! He has a low BA and is a base clogger!
And he doesn’t have a passion for the game.
Curse you!
And don’t forget, he has no passion for the game!
there’s a jejune reference here somewhere…
=P
You’d be okay with his defense, though?
Yep.
All right, I give in.
Sign Adam Dunn.
Put up a real fight there.
I got an interview with the http://www.baseballmusings.com guy for my blog.
Dude, I won my battle of the day.
You collect fricken swords. How many people turn DOWN a request with you?
I won’t even bring up the fact that you aren’t supposed to pimp your blogs out to everyone in a post for fear of catching a sharp blade to the throat.
You must be one hell of a woman.
Ahahahahaha.
Was just sayin’ that I won my battle of the day, is all. Strangely, the swords didn’t actually help with this one.
How many swords do you own? When did you start… no, HOW did you start collecting them? I think its a pretty cool and unique thing
1) Five. Would be more if my brother had let me buy one in Spain (he didn’t.)
2) I started in summer 2003. I went to a ren fest near Syracuse, and since I couldn’t buy a real one since I was living in a dorm, I bought a wooden one to start.
Some pictures:
One (these are the first four of my collection; the wooden one and the small metal one are from ren fests in New York, the broadsword is from Scotland and the sheathed sword is from Gettysburg)
My newest one from fall ’07 at a ren fair in Maryland. True story: I used this sword to scrape off the ice on my car the day after a blizzard so my friends and I could go to Cooperstown.
Speechless…
Heh, I like how you’re holding up the last one on some “Highlander” type ish.
In terms of wOBA, 2008 Adam Dunn would be their 4th best hitter (.383), behind only Youkilis (.402), Drew (.400), Bay (.385) and in front of Pedroia (.382) and Ortiz (.372). A Pedroia-Ortiz-Youkilis-Dunn-Bay-Drew heart of the order is nothing to sneeze at.
Dunn would be a good signing for them, although a Bay-Drew-Dunn OF is pretty craptastical defensively.
What the hell is wOBA? *Is really slow*. I see this everywhere, but I still don’t know what it is!
Aside from being a cutsey way of saying Joba?
Weighted On Base Average
http://www.insidethebook.com/woba.shtml
ta!
http://www.insidethebook.com/woba.shtml
thanks!
Simple terms, it shows someones On base percentage that is increased or decreased based on the stadiums they play at.
Actually, wOBA doesn’t adjust for park, which is surprising.
The bad news (for us):
SS-Lowrie (S)
2B-Pedroia (R)
DH-Ortiz (L)
1B-Youkilis (R)
CF-Drew (L)
LF-Bay (R)
RF-Dunn (L)
3B-Lowell (R)
C-???????? (?)
The bad news (for the Sox):
LF-Bay: -15.9 UZR/150 in leftfield (5.5 in right, but only 8 career innings there)
CF-Drew: 0.9 UZR/150 in centerfield (only 17% of career innings in CF, last significant time there was in 1999)
RF-Dunn:-71.2 UZR/150 in rightfield (-13.5 in left)
I doubt they get Dunn. Does not make sense they already have a “logjam” in the outfield. He won’t play 1st because that does not make sense. But you can’t count em out I guess.
I’d be back to the trade Lowell talk they had during Tex attempt. They won’t get anything for Lowell but they can cast him off
Epstein doesn’t believe in bad defense. I seriously doubt he makes a deal like this, unless Dunn could DH, which he can’t. Unless of course, Ortiz were to get moved.
Theo apparently has a longer memory than some around here do. The Red Sox were known for having big hitting, slow footed, poor defensive teams for many years. And while they looked good on paper, they never won anything. They would build teams for that ballpark. When Theo took over he put more emphasis on pitching and defense, and the rest is history.
Dunn would represent a step back in that direction, so I would welcome the move. He can be pitched to in big spots, his SO rates should scream that out to you.
Yeah, with that setup, it would be similar to our Gardner vs. Nady discussion; they’re probably better off only playing two of their good OF bats in the corners and leaving Ellsbury’s inferior offense in CF in exchange for his good defense. So you’d have to move one of either Bay, Drew, or Dunn to 1B, move Youk to 3rd, and trade/bench Lowell.
(Or, put Dunn at DH and trade/bench Ortiz… not that that’s possible.)
But neither Bay nor Drew play first, and Dunn does but hates it. So, it’s probably not possible for them.
Makes a TON of sense, though, but that’s a tough logjam to solve.
They still have super high expectations that Ellsbury will develop in the hitting department.
Also, many Boston bloggers have talked about trading Ortiz. I don’t know that its been rumored, but Epstein has shown that he isn’t afraid of moving/losing a guy a year too early rather then a year too late (Nomar, Pedro, Millar, Nixon, etc)
My guess is Drew will not be a good CF
and Dice-K + bad defense + fenway, won’t be pretty
And good luck to Drew for staying healthy. He couldn’t stay healthy in RF last year.
He’s a total wildcard. If he’s healthy, like he was in June and October ’07, he’s one of the 10-12 best players in the game. Of course healthy and JD Drew are not synonymous.
You would really call him one of the 10-12 best in the game? I am not saying you are wrong, I am assuming you are right and am just shocked. I know hes good, but I cannot believe THAT good.
Yeah, a healthy, motivated, and locked in J.D. Drew can go toe to toe with anybody in the league.
Luckily for us and everybody who’s not the Red Sox, he has a history of not being healthy, motivated and locked in– wait a minute…
J.D Drew = A.J. Burnett
Well, just off the top of my head, if I were to throw out 12 that I would think of, WITH NO STATS TO BACK THIS UP, I would take- Pujols, Sizemore, Hanley, Reyes, Wright, Santana, Sabathia, ARod, Lincecum, Manny, Miguel Cabrera, Beltran, Mauer all over him. Thats kind of a fun game to play. I am sure there are many more, but maybe when you review the stats, Drew is there.
In my opinion, no pitcher is in the top ten or twelve best players in the game.
Pujols
Arod
Sizemore
Hanley
Reyes
Wright
BJ Upton
Manny
MCab
Beltran
Mauer
Tex
Vlad
Holliday
Berkman
(probably a few more I am forgetting)
…Drew
Utley
Ryan Howard
Alex Rios
Dunn
Markakis
Josh Hamilton
Carl Crawford
All of you are misinterpreting what Mike said and what I agreed with.
He said that, If he’s healthy, like he was in June and October ‘07 he’s one of the 10-12 best players in the game.
He wasn’t saying that Drew is one of the 10-12 best players in the game. He was saying that for his brief periods of maximum effectiveness, he’s one of the 10-12 best players in the game. Your lengthy lists of players who are better than Drew for the duration of a season or career are accurate, but not rebuttals to Mike’s point as you’re talking about something different.
Well he’s really ~10 point OPS+ upgrade if Lowell comes back healthy, while being much worse defensively….so I’m not sure how much of a team upgrade it would be. I also don’t know the probability of Lowell being healthy
Ah, but Fangraphs can tell us. These are runs over replacement level averages over the last three years:
Lowell
Hitting: 10.9
Fielding: 8.8
WAR: 4.0
Dunn
Hitting: 26.5
Fielding: -16.7
WAR: 2.3
Eh, look at that. Lowell’s basically two wins better than Dunn almost entirely because of his D at a important position. Of course Lowell’s 35 and Dunn’s 29, so it’s reasonable to expect continued drop off from Lowell and more of the same, if not better out of Dunn.
Bottom line, Dunn to Boston would be bad.
thank you for providing the #s i was too lazy to do myself
Nady is only going to make 6 mil in his last arb season which means it is no brainer, barring major injury, that he would decline arb being a Boras client which helps any team involved. Plus, his asking price when he is a FA would be high but he really can’t go past someone like miltron bradley which means he should find a good contract and we would get the picks.
Nady for John Niese, would the Mets be stupid enough to do something like that?
I don’t doubt the Mets stupidity to do anything, but given that their farm has been mortgaged after the past few years, my guess is they’re not trading any pitching, unless it for other cheap pitching.
wOBA ducky be damned, per Fangraphs Dunn worth 2 wins above replacement last year.
If Nady is still with the Yankees at the start of the ’09 season i won’t be complaining. In fact a mid-season trade would probably almost be better in my mind. You get use out of him at the big-league level and then trade him in July for a couple of good prospects. If they traded him now, the only thing they would get is prospects anyway so why not get the use out of him for half of the season?
Also, I apologize for going off topic, but I just can’t stand Dustin Pedroia. I know this is completely random, but I was just wondering if I am the only one who thinks he is slightly overrated. I know he’s a good player but MVP?
You trade Nady now because right now his value is highest, so you’ll get the best return.
I agree. I think if you have Nady going into the season, you roll with him for the year and see if you resign him or else you get the picks. His value won’t be higher then it is now, because if he comes out smoking hot, there is little reason to move him.
I answered your sword question above
Thanks. I like how you tried to stab one of the swords right through Marty. Too bad it missed… (I know, your a Devils fan, j/k)
Nah, they’re just stuck in the foam base so they don’t tip over.
You trade Nady now because right now his value is highest, so you’ll get the best return.
But the point isn’t to “get the best return”, it’s to build the best teams now and in the future. “Getting the best return” incrementally increases our teams going forward, in terms of a better prospect – although it’s highly debatable as to how much better that prospect would be or how much they’d help said future teams.
Moving him now may incrementally increase our future chances of winning, but they may incrementally decrease our present chances of winning by a larger amount. You can’t reflexively say that we should always move a seemingly superfluous asset like Nady at the peak of his trade value, because his trade value is only a portion of his overall value to us. His potential production must be factored in.
You’re going to make my head explode like Hiroshima.
1) Simile. 2) hyperbole.
He just tries to use big words. I doubt that more then 5% of people on this site can constantly understand what he says… in fact, HE may not even know what he says.
But if you try going toe to toe with him in an arguement, as a famous QB once said, “Oh, its on like Donkey Kong!”
Tubelcaine.
Jejune.
Also, the best return may be a year of Nady and 2 top draft picks, no?
More simply put, the Yanks are a win-now team. So trading a player who can help you win in 09 for a prospect makes no sense to them, unless its a highly coveted, high upside guy. And those guys aren’t available for 1 year rentals.
I disagree with that interpretation wholeheartedly.
The 2008 Brewers were a “win-now” team.
The 2008 Royals were a “win-later” team.
The Yankees are always and constantly a “win-now AND win-later” team.
But why would the Yankees choose to trade Nady if
a) He is performing well
b) The Yankees are in the middle of a division race
c) They’ll get Type-A compensation from him at the end of the year
I can’t see them being sellers if they are doing well.
David Ortiz better start looking for that hatchet over his shoulder.
Yeah no shit. I can hear Gammons now … “privately, the Red Sox didn’t like how he didn’t keep himself in shape, and there was concern that he had used PED’s.”
He was also a known baby-raper.
Well if this is the case, then they should get rid of him now. No excuses.
…I was just going to leave it at “and he was bad for clubhouse chemistry”, but I think baby-raper takes the cake.
David Ortiz = clubhouse cancer.
Though really think of the teams that would even consider a trade in terms of salary & open DH:
Rangers
Mariners
Tigers
Toronto
And I really don’t see those teams wanting to take on salary
The rest:
Angels: Have vlad, doesn’t seem to fit
A’s: Have Giambi, salary issues
KC: Salary
Indians: have hafner
White Sox: have Thome
Minn: money
Yankees: no chance + matsui
Orioles: huff, though he could play the field & division issues
Rays: Burell + money
I would think that some teams would be interested just because that is a huge draw. I don’t know what the contract is, and I really don’t care because I don’t believe its happening. I just remember some banter about it from earlier, and I know from reading about Epstein, he has James doing extra research on defense to try and come up with their own statistics in order to field the best team possible. There is NO WAY they add Dunn for the field in my opinion, unless they really think Lowell is finished in which case they could put Dunn at 1b and Youk at 3b I suppose till Lars Anderson is ready.
Three words: Chiba Lotte Marines.
Heh
I have to admit, even though neither thing would ever really happen, I kinda want the Sox to sign Dunn just so we can react/overreact and sign Manny Ramirez.
CHECKMATE, BITCHES!!!
tienes bastante tiempo en tus manos….
Ella la gusta la gasolina.
God dammit, I just lost a no-no in The Show. I was using Oakland and Justin Duchscherer against the Indians at the Jake. God damn Kelly Shoppach leads off the eight inning with a single up the middle on a 0-2 count. What sucks is the fact that he hit a cutter low and away – the son of a bitch looked horrible on the same two previous pitches.
I just can’t get over that name, Duchscherer.
It’s so jejune.
I had my perfect game in Yankee Stadium with Aj Burnett. During the perfection, I managed to get 4 Ks and the rest are ground outs with no walks. I was like, I know I’m using Burnett but he was like pitching like Wang. wtf!!
In the career mode, I had a perfect game going but the manager took me out. I could not believe it, I went 8 and a third of perfect ball and the manager takes me out. I could never take The Show seriously again.
ouch, that sucks. so did the bullpen blew the perfection?
Who was the manager?
It was in 07, I was on the Mets and it took me a full year in the minors to make it there after I was traded from the PAdres to the Mets in a deal. So I assume it was Willie, and yes Duaner Sanchez gave up 2 hits but no runs.
…You know, I used to never understand why it was so easy to make fun of the Mets…
…and now I do.
The Show basically told you “Fuck you Mike”
No it told me fuck me and I’m going to kill your family now.
No it told me fuck
meyou and I’m going to kill your family now.I’m not sure if I’m alone in this or not….I have ABSOLUTELY no idea when TSJC is joking and when he’s serious. I usually assume he’s joking, but that post above I just couldn’t tell.
Which one?