The reality of a Reds trade

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This past week I discussed a favorable trade scenario for Xavier Nady. The caveat, of course, being that it’s favorable to the Yanks. Surely the Reds would want a significant add-on if they were to even listen. They might also want to swap Aaron Harang for Bronson Arroyo, at which point Cash should hang up the phone (much like Reds fans think Jocketty should hang up on a Nady/Harang swap).

Mark Sheldon of MLB.com notes that the Reds are still looking for some right-handed power to sandwich between lefties Joey Votto and Jay Bruce. At this point Brandon Phillips seems to be the leading candidate, though he’s no bopper. After smacking 30 homers in 2007, he followed that up with a .261/.312/.442 performance. That’s not at all ideal production for your No. 4 hitter. This is what fuels the speculation that the Reds are looking outside the organization for some pop. Hence, the link with Nady.

Sheldon acknowledges that the Yankees surplus (is it really a surplus, though?) of outfielders could make the two teams viable trade candidates. But, as he notes:

On the trade market, the Yankees have a surplus of outfielders and could be willing to deal either Nick Swisher or Xavier Nady, with Nady being the most likely to be moved. The Yankees need starting pitching in return and probably wouldn’t settle for anyone less than a Reds veteran such as Bronson Arroyo or Aaron Harang.

I’d obviously change that from an or statement, saying that the Yanks wouldn’t settle less for a veteran such as Harang. As I said in the original, though, a one-for-one swap would be inequitable. Chad from Redleg Nation says “no thanks” to the proposal. The commenters on that post are also taking me to task. That I can understand. I would imagine Reds fans have become attached to Harang over the past few years, and don’t want to trade him for a guy coming off a career year (and whose production dropped in the second half).

If not Harang, though, it doesn’t seem the Yanks and the Red would match up on a trade. Take a look at their 40-man roster. There are some good young players there, one quality veteran pitcher (Harang), and some middling talent. Not at all what the Yanks should be seeking in a Nady trade. I’d far rather go into the season with depth than make a trade for the sake of making a trade.

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Corky Simpson: I ‘simply goofed' on Rickey-less ballot
  • Pastafarian

    Volquez??

  • Mike W.

    Joe, are you against doing a deal involving Bailey?

    • Jay CT

      Bailey has lost almost 10 mph in velocity, plus has control issues. There really is no reason to trade just to trade. I would rather make a deal when a team gets desperate and we see if the Yanks do in fact need another starter.

      What about signing a guy like Randy Wolf? How do you think he would play in the AL east as a #4 starter?

      • GG

        Not Well

        • Jay CT

          Thank you for that in depth analysis

          • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

            Same to you.

  • http://www.redlegnation.com Chad

    You’re probably right that the Reds may not match up well in this trade scenario. I agree that I’d probably just hang on to Nady and Swisher if I were the Yanks, at this point.

    Of course, if I were the Reds and could work out something with Swisher and Bronson Arroyo switching addresses, I’d do it in a heartbeat

    Also, I think the commenters at RN who are “taking you to task” must not have clicked through to your original post, which was well-reasoned. I may not have done your argument justice in the sentence or two I used to describe it.

    • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

      So Reds fans aren’t too enthused with the idea of a trade based on Nady (+) for Harang, and my reaction to a proposal centered on Swisher for Arroyo is less than positive. Just for fun, what would you think about something centered on Swisher and Harang? (I have no idea what I think of that, just throwing it out there.)

      • http://www.redlegnation.com Chad

        I’d be very hesitant to make that trade, though I’d love to have Swisher on the Reds.

        I dunno, maybe I’m too emotionally involved, but I’d have to really be bowled over with an offer for me to wanna trade Harang. He had a bad year last year, probably thanks to Dusty, but he was very good prior to that.

        • Jay CT

          Hopefully his arm doesn’t fall off as is Dusty’s M.o.

        • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

          I hear you… With their rotation, if I was in the Reds’ FO, I’d be really hesitant to trade Harang as well. He’s probably worth more to the Reds than he’s worth on the open market. It really doesn’t seem like a great match for either side, to me.

    • ekh1210

      I think the Reds match up well even without Harang. We have a dearth of hitting prospects, and they have that in spades. We could use some more OF/INF depth.

  • http://asportsaddictneedsdivineintervention.blogspot.com/ E-ROC

    Aren’t the Braves and Giants better matches?

    • Whozat

      Braves aren’t willing to give up anything we’d want, and a one year rental makes little sense for the giants

      • Jay CT

        Giants are apparently against any player entering a contract season

  • http://www.youtube.com/kevyyankees Kevin G.

    If we got Harang, we would have one of the best rotations in baseball (if not the best.

    BTW, you guys made a new post when I posted the stats to prove the idiot sox fan from the last post wrong. http://riveraveblues.com/2009/01/sox-sign-saito-6767/#comment-253583

    • pat

      very nice, hard to argue with cold hard numbers

  • MattG

    Best thing I can see here is to sweeten the pot for Harang, then sign Hinske.

    Failing that, I would have interested in Hairston and Bray, and trying out Coke at #5 for the first month of the season.

    Would Cinncinati do Hairston/Bray for Nady?

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      Would Cinncinati do Hairston/Bray for Nady?

      I don’t see how that improves the Yanks. And they just signed Hairston, so he’d have to consent to being traded so soon.

      • MattG

        I am repeating this endlessly on this blog, but I am really unhappy with the lack of bench flexibility among infielders on this roster. There is no one anywhere near the major league level that is worth a roster spot (save Ransom, who is debatable), yet people continually talk about the nice flexibility Nady provides.

        With a 4 man bench, one of Nady/other CFer needs to go.

        At least Jackson could impersonate a ML outfielder when there is a DL stint to Matsui/Damon/Swisher etc, and I think we expect Christian to be retained. Who are the Yankees calling up when Cano hits the DL?

        And I love Bray. Yankees don’t need him, but he’s a really nice left-handed pen arm.

        • Mike Pop

          We trade Nady for Brandon Philips if Cano hits the DL then we use Philips in the OF in 2010. Don’t worry, Cash has got it down.

          • paulie

            You really think the Reds would trade Phillips for Nady? I doubt it…

            • Mike Pop

              I fail at comedy I guess.

              • Jay CT

                Lol, no you don’t. Some just fail at recognizing sarcasm.

                And I don’t understand why the feeling is there that a backup infielder is a huge importance. At the end of last year, people liked them some Ransom. Ah how soon we all forget. Ideally, how often would the infielder be playing, besides in mop up duty of a 10-0 game?

                • MattG

                  I don’t think Ransom is a good ML backup, but maybe he is, that’s not actually the point.

                  Look at the 40. The only guy on the roster is Miranda. If someone goes on the DL, there will be no infielder to call up. Ransom will be in the lineup, and who gets the call? You can’t have a bench without an infielder.

                  This will be addressed. Hinske is coming, I bet. The question is, will he take Nady’s roster spot or Gardner/Cabrera’s?

                  I suppose the emergency plan is to keep the existing bench, and figure out a way to get Berroa on the 40 man when it happens. Aside from the fact that it WILL happen, this is okay, I guess.

                • Doug

                  Confused. Are you suggesting they have 2 backup middle infielders on the major league team

                • Jay CT

                  I don’t think Berroa will be there come the season. I also don’t think Hinske will be there, but who knows. I am not in disagreement that it would be great to have a great guy to come in for an injury, but I think you have to be realistic- superstars cannot be replaced, and its not easy to have a player that talented backing up guys who usually (knock on wood) do not get hurt. The idea is good, but none of the infield is injury prone in my opinion.

                • MattG

                  There is a four man bench. The Yankees right now have 2 OF, 1 inf, 1 C. They should have 1 OF, 1 inf, 1 C, and 1 utility.

                  This is not about having superstars. It’s about being able to field a team.

                • MattG

                  I should continue–

                  Or, at least have another infielder on the 40 man roster, so that Gardner can be demoted and INFIELDER NAME can get promoted when an INF goes on the DL. Berroa could be that guy, I guess, but he’s not on the 40 man roster at the moment.

                • Doug

                  called me stupid, but what’s the difference between an infielder and a utility guy….doesn’t ransom fill both roles?

                • Jay CT

                  Thats fair Matt. Too many people want superstars everywhere, thats all.

              • paulie

                Oh… I thought for a minute you were one of those fans who think we can trade Eric Duncan and Kei Igawa for Lincecum.

                • Jay CT

                  Wait a second. We can’t? Screw it then, let them keep that little kid with the funky windup

    • Mike Pop

      Id rather get Daryll Thompson than that package.

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

        Made his ML debut at Yankee Stadium if I’m remembering correctly.

        • Mike Pop

          Ya and he shut us out I think lol

      • MattG

        This is the guy they got for Kearns, right? Trade Kearns for Thompson, then turn around and trade Thompson for Nady. That doesn’t seem right.

        Who was the other guy in that deal?

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

          From B-Ref:

          July 13, 2006: Traded by the Cincinnati Reds with Felipe Lopez and Ryan Wagner to the Washington Nationals for Gary Majewski, Royce Clayton, Bill Bray, Brendan Harris, and Daryl Thompson.

          • Mike Pop

            Weird trade.

    • http://www.redlegnation.com Chad

      Hairston/Bray for Nady?

      Yes, please.

  • MattG

    I should add that I really believe that if the Yankees are going to go with a 12 man pitching staff, one of their 4 bench players needs to be a super-U type. With Molina and Ransom etched in stone, that super U either needs to take the spot of Nady or Gardner/Cabrera.

  • http://thebronxzoo.wordpress.com iYankees

    So the Reds wouldn’t do IPK and Nady for Harang (and his contract, which isn’t bad)? To be honest, I think that’s a reasonable deal when one considers needs and wants for both teams. Either way, I think the Yankees should keep everyone but lose Melky.

    • Jay CT

      Well who knows what Jockety would do. For all we know, they are in fact talking Harang, but on the other side of the coin, they could be discussing Arroyo… cringe at the thought

  • Jon W.

    I know Harang is due for a bounce back year, but don’t his future salaries make him way overpriced for a #5 starter? If the Yanks could ever get him for Nady (which they can’t) you would have to do it, but since it will cost a lot more to get him, I say pass. Besides, do we really want Aaron Harang blocking Phil Hughes’ spot in the rotation?

    • pat

      Just because he would be pitching out of the 4 or 5 spot doesnt mean he’s necessarily a 5th spot quality pitcher. Hes better than that, just so happens he would be in that spot.

  • Joseph M

    What Surplus! I am getting tired of reading about the supposed surplus in the Yankee outfield. Let’s go over what we’ve got, Matsui (we’re not even sure this guy can play the outfield). Gardner and Melky, Melky was sent to the minors last year, hell we’re not even sure he’ll make the club! Melky could be just a reserve outfielder whose primary value are his defense skills. Gardner may or may not be good enough to play in the majors, we just don’t know. He looked good in September, but as Branch Rickey once said, Spring Training and September are the most dangerous times of year for scouts.

    So now we are left with three outfielders, Damon (our left fielder), Swisher (who after all had an off year) and Nady. I can see a scenario where we might be shopping for outfield talent before the season’s over. I say keep the group we have and see how it plays out. It’s better to have extra players and not need them than need them and not have them. Besides in championship years, be it the 50’s 60’s 70’s or 90’s the Yanks always had a deep bench.

    One extra point, and it may sound greedy, but if we can move Matsui I would love the Yanks to get Manny put him in the DH slot and watch what he does…

    • MattG

      If you look at the 40, what the Yankees really have a surplus of is pitchers. It’s time to package some arms for a super-U, or just to make space for Hinske.

    • GG

      I agree with this point of view on the OF situation, and we shouldnt package young arms for a super U that wouldnt be high on my list of priorites, I’m fine with Ransom/Berroa…PRIORITY NUMBER ONE HAS TO BE ANOTHER INNINGS EATER…Harang, Pettitte, Moose all fit that bill. Too much hopes this season to still risk similar rotation issues of last year. I’d really like to see Cashman drive to Pennsylvania and see if he cant convince Moose to take a one year and be part of a team with a real shot at winning it ALL…If thats just unrealistic which it may very well be, dont address anything else until you find a guy who can give you 200IP.

      • Jay CT

        I completely agree. A player like Harang is perfect, but is their ace. I still think Andy returning would be solid, and I would love Sheets as I have said over and over again. I just think the potential he has is too tempting to pass up.

  • Mike Pop

    Nats showing interest, what about to the Nats for Milledge ? ;)

    • MattG

      Add Milledge to the pile of not-really-good-enough-to-play-everyday-in-CF pile.

    • http://asportsaddictneedsdivineintervention.blogspot.com/ E-ROC

      A trade to the Yanks could help with his rap career.

      • pat

        BLASTINGS THRILLEDGE IN THE HIZZY

        • Mike Pop

          This was funny.

  • Raul

    Trading anyone now would be a pretty bad idea on Cash’s part. At the deadline teams are a lot more desperate than now. Moving someone out of our outfield then would work

  • A.D.

    Yankees would have to move pitching talent in a deal to get Harang, but as its pointed out while Harang would be the #4 for us, he’s the ace of the Reds, they’re not going to trade for a rental outfielder.

    Yankees would be better off trying to make a deal for some Res prospects, but in reality given that there certainly is a role for Nady if they keep him, there’s no reason to trade him unless you’re getting something good.

  • A.D.

    Talks with the Nats:
    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090110&content_id=3739097&vkey=hotstove2008&fext=.jsp

    Maybe they’ll do a Yankee favored deal in the hope to get a decent major league player to look competitive to their fans

    • Jay CT

      Elijah Dukes? He was worth 12 million according to FanGraphs last year, which is the only stat website I know how to navigate, lol

      • A.D.

        I don’t see the Yankees trading for him, they’re not going to take on his baggage.

        • Jay CT

          Yeah but with a bunch of role model type players it might help him no?

      • http://asportsaddictneedsdivineintervention.blogspot.com/ E-ROC

        High risk/ very high reward with the acquisition of Elijah Dukes. The Yanks could do what the Nationals did and that is hire a former police officer as an adviser to the team to keep Dukes out of trouble. I would be excited if the Yanks go Dukes, but I don’t know if I’d do it for Nady.

        • Mike Pop

          I would do it for Nady but next thing we know Elijah would have a hit out on one of his enemies.

          • http://asportsaddictneedsdivineintervention.blogspot.com/ E-ROC

            With Ed Werder reporting.

            • http://asportsaddictneedsdivineintervention.blogspot.com/ E-ROC

              With Ed Werder Peter Gammons reporting.

              Fixed.

              • Mike Pop

                Haha, Your Ravens gonna win the game?

                • http://asportsaddictneedsdivineintervention.blogspot.com/ E-ROC

                  They better win. Down by 7 points right now.

                • Mike Pop

                  Kerry Collins is going to fall apart. He is going to have those bad memories of the Ravens owning him in the SB. He’ll get a flashback of the Ray Lewis dance and those interceptions. Then it will all happen again.

                • http://asportsaddictneedsdivineintervention.blogspot.com/ E-ROC

                  Collins may matured since those days. It might happen, but I’m not counting on it.

                • Mike Pop

                  Sick pass my Flacco

  • http://nyfaninboston.blogspot.com/ Manimal

    Bring back Johnson, former attorney general, Nieves and Clippard!

  • http://nyfaninboston.blogspot.com/ Manimal

    Who is josh anderson of the braves? Is he good? His stats are pretty good, hes only 26.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6032&position=OF

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      He’s a Brett Gardner clone, except he doesn’t walk as much.

      • http://nyfaninboston.blogspot.com/ Manimal

        I think we should trade Nady for some A ballers with potential, our options are limited and I think that there isn’t really any room for improvement besides 5th starter and center field and both will be filled within the organization(pending Pettitte coming back)

        • http://nyfaninboston.blogspot.com/ Manimal

          Or at least wait until the season begins and by trade deadline weigh the options then and see what we need and what other teams need.

        • Mike W.

          This.

        • whozat

          The Yankees HAVE a buttload of A ballers with potential.

          If you’re not getting a serviceable 4/5 starter on a short contract, or packaging something else with Nady to get a AA/AAA position player of interest…there’s really no point in making a trade, and certainly not right now. Maybe make a move in late March if someone gets desperate and offers something good. If not…keep the depth. Having Crisp worked out well for the Sox last year, when Ellsbury came back to earth and/or Drew or Manny took a seat.

          • http://nyfaninboston.blogspot.com/ Manimal

            You can’t have too much of A ballers, most of them don’t even make it past AA.

            If I was GM, I would have Melky and Gardner fight for CF, have hughes, aceves, ipk, and coke fight over the 5th spot, sign juan Cruz and sign J-christ to a minor league deal.

          • Reggie C.

            None of them OFs though. We’ve got definite talent at catcher and intriguing talent in the IF, but zero talent in the OF.

        • Captain

          I agree with Manimal that Nady’s ultimate disposition should yield prospects. For once, the Yanks have the opportunity to trade from a surplus of veteran depth, and can conceivably move forward without Nady. I don’t know that I would look first to A ballers, but take the deal that would best stock the farm. As Cash has explained, the Rays will be around for a long time.

          • Doug

            we could use an internal replacement for jeter in 2 years

  • populoso

    Unless it’s Harang, I’m not interested.

  • http://baseballbeat.wordpress.com/ Baseball Beat

    Just keep Nady and Swisher.

  • pat

    I can’t imagine the reds would want to trade harang without getting a few good young prospects. I’d imagine if we gave them the lesser of the two outfielders, (Nady) we would probably have to kick in IPK and another young guy.

    • http://nyfaninboston.blogspot.com/ Manimal

      If all it took was Nady and IPK would you do it?

      • pat

        Nady and IPK? Hell yes. Unfortunately I don’t think that would be enough. We’d probably have to throw in another guy with potential I think coke would get it done but I’m none too eager to part with him. Ideally I think pettite is still our best option. Hughes would be effectively blocked for a few years if we got harang.

        • Mike Pop

          Only if Nady was under control for 2 more seasons. Then Nady and IPK would get it done.

    • GG

      I think most people on this board would do that if they were Cash, I dont know if the Reds would, I guess that depends entirely on who the third player is? I’d be against including Coke

  • ryan

    If nady or swish get traded it should be for a super U. it’s pretty much the only thing the yanks need that can get done with 4th outfielders.

    • Mike Pop

      Ya but would you trade Nady for Marco Scutaro? If that was the deal. I don’t think I would.

    • Reggie C.

      Coming off the season he just did, Nady is a starter on any NL team and most AL teams. Can’t exactly say the same thing for Swish who’s coming off a personal worst, but who’s shown that he’s starting quality in the past.

      • ryan

        yeah ur right…. I like nady but a super U would most benefit the team now. I’d rather trade swish If that’ll get the job done.

  • GG

    I hope NYY and CLE brawl this year and CC lays Pavano out cold

    • http://nyfaninboston.blogspot.com/ Manimal

      hahaha, I could see CC pancaking him.

      • Mike Pop

        Only if Shelley Duncan was there. Remember the game in Toronto when he stopped Matt Stairs when the brawl broke out. He saw that Stairs was going after A-Rod or a pitcher or something. He ran right out there and told Matt Stairs to chill. Micheal Kay pointed that out like 4 or 5 times during it and the next few innings haha.

  • Reggie C.

    I wonder who’s available from the Nats …. Milledge? Dukes? They’re not giving up any pitching, since they really don’t have anyone good, but what’s the chances of getting Elijah Duke for Nady?

    I think Duke has the higher ceiling and he’s younger. Did he stay out of trouble last year?

    • Mike Pop

      I love watching his HR videos. The kid is talented no doubt. Maybe Bowden would be dumb enough to give us Dukes and Detwiler for Nady and Veras.

      • Mike Pop

        This was a joke. Obviously he would never give up Ross.

        • Reggie C.

          Why do i think that Bowden wouldn’t do a swap of OFs? If you’re looking long term, the smart move would be to give up Milledge instead of Dukes.

          question: Who’s got a higher ceiling: Milledge or A-Jax?

          • Mike Pop

            No clue man.

  • dlcb

    I think Harang is being way overvalued. Last year he had an ERA+ of 94. He has a career ERA+ of 105. On the other hand, the previous two years were great. His K/9 did drop by a whole strikeout last year. Part of that was due to his injury last year, but that alse hurts his reputation as a workhorse.

    Harang’s current contract is 2/25.5 million or 3/36.25 million. How much is Harang really worth on the open market? I know I would definitely take Lowe over him. A reasonable expectation for Lowe is $14-15 million a year. IMO, Harang would probably be worth $13 million. His contract is close to market value. To me the idea that the Reds would need way more than Nady is crazy.

  • joe

    harang would be a great pickup. Trade Nady for him.

    CC
    Wang
    Burnett
    Harang
    Joba

    and phil and Ian become emergency options, unlike last year when they were counted on from the start.