Jan
09

They play the games on the field, but…

By Benjamin Kabak

Using the rosters as of this week and The Hardball Times’ projections, RLYW has run a simulation of the 2009 season, and the results are encouraging. The Yanks end up winning the AL East 76 percent of the time and the Wild Card 19 percent of the time. They average out to be about 102-60. I’ll take that.

Posted on Friday, January 9th, 2009 at 10:00 pm in Asides.

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19 Comments »

Artist formerly known as 'The' Steve says:

Lets see 76+19=95% of the time we’re in the playoffs.

Hmmmm . . . . not enough. Lets sign Manny just to make sure.

 
Manimal says:

Angels aren’t the same with out Tex and K rod.

 
VO says:

102 thats it? dont you know that the redsox signed smoltz and baldelli there guna win minimum 160

Artist formerly known as 'The' Steve says:

You’re forgetting Brad Penny. I heard Gammons say the other day he has an excellent chance of being every bit as good as AJ Burnett this year.

VO says:

burnett! id compare him to cc

 
VO says:

burnett! id compare him to cc

 
 
VO says:

those results are quite encouraging though 2nd best runs against, and best runs scored

 
 
Mike says:

I’ll definitely take that. It also has us having the best pitching in the majors (lowest runs against) which would be nice.

 
huuz says:

i wonder how we fared under 2008’s projections…?

Artist formerly known as 'The' Steve says:

Shhhhhhhhhhh!!

Injuries, my friend, injuries.

 
 
Pel says:

26. Posted at 12:00:10 pm on Friday, January 9, 2009 by SG

The current state of the free agent market massively biases this analysis in favor the Yankees.

Yeah, that’s why this is still too early to really be doing this.

Greg G. says:

The only time that it’s not too early to be doing this: when the regular season ends.

 
 
Kevin G says:

Wow, best offense in MLB and 2nd pitching in MLB. I’ll take that. And wow they have the Angels winning the west while only winning 80 games. They’ll probably still find a way to beat us in the ALDS.

Artist formerly known as 'The' Steve says:

Angels def take a big step back this year, the question will be do the Rangers have enough pitching and did Beane do enough with his lineup to compete this year.

My pick is Oakland. They have enough pitching and you have to like the Holliday and Giambi moves.

BklynJT says:

Haven’t we learned this year not to count the Angels out of anything. Let me guess, people are going to pick Seattle to win the division again.

 
 
 
leo says:

I really enjoy the AL West projections.

 
ortforshort says:

They’re probably using last year’s numbers. I’m guessing that they haven’t factored in the probability of old guys getting injured or declining and a weak bench as replacements – that hurts the Yankees’ numbers. They haven’t factored in Tampa’s young guys getting appreciably better and having a better chance of staying healthy or their young stud pitchers coming up from AAA. That being said, as things stand now, it’s Tampa and the Yankees with the Sox a sorry third.

 
VO says:

Down furthur on the comments it said about how many innings picthed as well, so i did the math and the yankees would need over 400 innings from the bullpen

Ben K. says:

That’s not that many. Last year, the Yanks’ pen tossed 543.1 innings.

 
 
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