Comments on: How much is a single from a leadoff hitter worth? http://riveraveblues.com/2009/02/how-much-is-a-single-from-a-leadoff-hitter-worth-7938/ A New York Yankees Blog Mon, 28 May 2012 02:04:59 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: Cox, Kontos & Texeira have been invited to George M. Steinbrenner Field | Yankees Rumors - NYYankeesRumors.com http://riveraveblues.com/2009/02/how-much-is-a-single-from-a-leadoff-hitter-worth-7938/#comment-285817 Cox, Kontos & Texeira have been invited to George M. Steinbrenner Field | Yankees Rumors - NYYankeesRumors.com Thu, 19 Feb 2009 23:59:26 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=7938#comment-285817 [...] How much is a single from a leadoff hitter worth? / 3 UP: A-Rod, Jeter, Abreu [...] [...] How much is a single from a leadoff hitter worth? / 3 UP: A-Rod, Jeter, Abreu [...]

]]> By: Bill http://riveraveblues.com/2009/02/how-much-is-a-single-from-a-leadoff-hitter-worth-7938/#comment-281563 Bill Thu, 12 Feb 2009 15:55:48 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=7938#comment-281563 I think the bias lies with the speed of the batter. Quicker hitters can get on with singles more than slower ones (ie Ichiro and other speedsters), while a majority of the power hitters (who are lead footed) tend to get more walks. Therefore, faster runners in theory should score more runs. Granted this is not a huge difference as the stats show but I think it may account for that. I think the bias lies with the speed of the batter. Quicker hitters can get on with singles more than slower ones (ie Ichiro and other speedsters), while a majority of the power hitters (who are lead footed) tend to get more walks. Therefore, faster runners in theory should score more runs. Granted this is not a huge difference as the stats show but I think it may account for that.

]]> By: SF Yanks http://riveraveblues.com/2009/02/how-much-is-a-single-from-a-leadoff-hitter-worth-7938/#comment-281352 SF Yanks Thu, 12 Feb 2009 03:30:52 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=7938#comment-281352 Wait, what? I'm not understanding how a triple scores more than a homerun. Can someone explain this one? Wait, what? I’m not understanding how a triple scores more than a homerun. Can someone explain this one?

]]> By: Cox, Kontos & Texeira have been invited to George M. Steinbrenner Field « Zell’s Pinstripe Blog http://riveraveblues.com/2009/02/how-much-is-a-single-from-a-leadoff-hitter-worth-7938/#comment-281288 Cox, Kontos & Texeira have been invited to George M. Steinbrenner Field « Zell’s Pinstripe Blog Thu, 12 Feb 2009 02:04:08 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=7938#comment-281288 [...] How much is a single from a leadoff hitter worth? / 3 UP: A-Rod, Jeter, Abreu [...] [...] How much is a single from a leadoff hitter worth? / 3 UP: A-Rod, Jeter, Abreu [...]

]]> By: Weisdog http://riveraveblues.com/2009/02/how-much-is-a-single-from-a-leadoff-hitter-worth-7938/#comment-281217 Weisdog Thu, 12 Feb 2009 01:10:25 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=7938#comment-281217 Sorry to be the naysayer on this, but the notion that NL pitchers walk #8 hitters to get to the pitcher is completely false. In fact, with 2 outs and no one on base NL pitchers bear down to get the #8 hitter out, because if succesful they either a) get to lead off the next inning facing the pithcer, thus improving their chances of starting the inning with an out, or b) force the opposing manager to make a middle innings decision whether or not to bat their pitcher or pinch hit. In fact, if you ever see a pitcher walk a #8 hitter with 2 outs and the bases empty, they are usually cursing into their glove. With runners on base, however, the strategy changes depending on how many and what base they are on. Sorry to be the naysayer on this, but the notion that NL pitchers walk #8 hitters to get to the pitcher is completely false. In fact, with 2 outs and no one on base NL pitchers bear down to get the #8 hitter out, because if succesful they either a) get to lead off the next inning facing the pithcer, thus improving their chances of starting the inning with an out, or b) force the opposing manager to make a middle innings decision whether or not to bat their pitcher or pinch hit. In fact, if you ever see a pitcher walk a #8 hitter with 2 outs and the bases empty, they are usually cursing into their glove.

With runners on base, however, the strategy changes depending on how many and what base they are on.

]]> By: toad http://riveraveblues.com/2009/02/how-much-is-a-single-from-a-leadoff-hitter-worth-7938/#comment-281175 toad Thu, 12 Feb 2009 00:25:21 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=7938#comment-281175 Good point. More generally, hitters followed by weak hitters are going to get more walks than those followed by strong hitters. So players get on base with a walk may be followed, on average, with worse hitters than those who get a single. Good point. More generally, hitters followed by weak hitters are going to get more walks than those followed by strong hitters.

So players get on base with a walk may be followed, on average, with worse hitters than those who get a single.

]]> By: Chip http://riveraveblues.com/2009/02/how-much-is-a-single-from-a-leadoff-hitter-worth-7938/#comment-281160 Chip Wed, 11 Feb 2009 23:45:15 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=7938#comment-281160 No, "fast==terrorizing the basepaths and distracting pitchers" while your best hitters are at the plate. That'd be another interesting one to do as you could factor in FB% and how much having a good base stealer on affects SLG and OBP. No, “fast==terrorizing the basepaths and distracting pitchers” while your best hitters are at the plate. That’d be another interesting one to do as you could factor in FB% and how much having a good base stealer on affects SLG and OBP.

]]> By: Chip http://riveraveblues.com/2009/02/how-much-is-a-single-from-a-leadoff-hitter-worth-7938/#comment-281158 Chip Wed, 11 Feb 2009 23:43:14 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=7938#comment-281158 I think I've seen something to that effect where somebody attempted to determine statistically how smart a first base coach is by comparing how often a hit should be a double or a single (based of LD% and career numbers) with how often a batter actually ends up on second or gets thrown out at second. It was quite interesting but only works on the first couple of years with a new base coach because of a players natural tendency to get slower as they age. I think I’ve seen something to that effect where somebody attempted to determine statistically how smart a first base coach is by comparing how often a hit should be a double or a single (based of LD% and career numbers) with how often a batter actually ends up on second or gets thrown out at second. It was quite interesting but only works on the first couple of years with a new base coach because of a players natural tendency to get slower as they age.

]]> By: Chip http://riveraveblues.com/2009/02/how-much-is-a-single-from-a-leadoff-hitter-worth-7938/#comment-281154 Chip Wed, 11 Feb 2009 23:38:49 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=7938#comment-281154 Isn't this overall lineup dependent though? I mean if A-Rod is hitting fourth, he's going to participate in more runs than Melky. Well Melky never hits fourth so the overall runs created numbers for the four spot will naturally be higher for the spots immediately around him. My point is that this shows which players benefit from batting in certain spots using conventional wisdom. This is especially true of the national league. For example, say that conventional wisdom changed and everyone in the NL started batting pitchers seventh. Well, then a double in the fifth spot would score at a much smaller percentage (my theory on why a double in the seventh spot scores less runs than any other spot) because pitchers would be more apt to walk the next batter with either one or two outs hoping to get a double play or a strikeout from the pitcher. Well suddenly all these numbers would change as the fifth and sixth slots would score less. Isn’t this overall lineup dependent though? I mean if A-Rod is hitting fourth, he’s going to participate in more runs than Melky. Well Melky never hits fourth so the overall runs created numbers for the four spot will naturally be higher for the spots immediately around him.

My point is that this shows which players benefit from batting in certain spots using conventional wisdom. This is especially true of the national league.

For example, say that conventional wisdom changed and everyone in the NL started batting pitchers seventh. Well, then a double in the fifth spot would score at a much smaller percentage (my theory on why a double in the seventh spot scores less runs than any other spot) because pitchers would be more apt to walk the next batter with either one or two outs hoping to get a double play or a strikeout from the pitcher. Well suddenly all these numbers would change as the fifth and sixth slots would score less.

]]> By: Michael http://riveraveblues.com/2009/02/how-much-is-a-single-from-a-leadoff-hitter-worth-7938/#comment-281151 Michael Wed, 11 Feb 2009 23:37:29 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=7938#comment-281151 Don't errors factor in to why hits are more productive than walks? For instance, there's an error on the throw to 1B, and the batter is credited with a single, but ends up on second. Or, in trying to stretch a single to a double, an error occurs, so the batter is on second, but only is credited with a single. Of course, it's also possible that someone could get a single and is thrown out at second, making the probability that he'd score 0. Interesting... Don’t errors factor in to why hits are more productive than walks? For instance, there’s an error on the throw to 1B, and the batter is credited with a single, but ends up on second. Or, in trying to stretch a single to a double, an error occurs, so the batter is on second, but only is credited with a single. Of course, it’s also possible that someone could get a single and is thrown out at second, making the probability that he’d score 0. Interesting…

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