Feb
22

Kevin Goldstein’s Top 11 Yankees prospects

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Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus posted his list of the Yanks’ top eleven prospects today, with Jesus Montero beating out Austin Jackson for the top spot. Montero & Jackson were the system’s only five star prospects, and where followed by a ton of three star guys. I think that’s a little generous, I wouldn’t have been surprised to see Jackson rated as a four star guy. McAllister’s a little too low in my opinion, but nothing crazy.

Eric at Pending Pinstripes posted his top thirty list as well. Make sure you check it out. For comparison’s sake, here’s my list.

Categories : Asides, Minors

38 Comments»

  1. pat says:

    Arodys Vizcaino? I love how one of these mainstream guys mention his name now all of a sudden hes popping up on people’s lists everywhere. IMO melancon should be ahead of coke aceves and vizcaino, but oh well.

  2. I don’t understand why Aceves keeps getting on the top-10 lists. He’s not THAT good. I get the “proximity to the majors” factor, but he’s not top-10 material to me.

    • whozat says:

      Ranking prospects is always an exercise in balancing upside with ceiling. What’s worth more? A 26 year old with a 90% probability of throwing 180 league average innings in the bigs RIGHT NOW, or an 18 year old in A ball who could be an ace someday, if he can just “harness his stuff”?

      Obviously, you want to have some of the latter in your system, but having the former keeps you from having to go out and sign the Jaret Wrights and Randy Wolfs of the world to contracts that are too long and too expensive.

      It sounds to me like you view “top prospects” as “guys with the most upside,” which is OK, but I think it’s a bit of a narrow view.

  3. Ty says:

    Have u actually seen any of these prospects in person? How can u do a list if u haven’t seen all these guys many times?

  4. Chris G. says:

    Did anyone else see one PeteAbe that Jorge had some high praise for Eric Hacker?

  5. Chip says:

    I agree with pat that Melancon should probably be ranked number five. Also, I think Brackman should be rated number 3 and probably a four-star prospect (with A-Jax probably downgraded to f four with him).

    Can you imagine how much better this would look at Porcello fallen to us? Or if we’d have gotten Cole? I really hope some of these DSL guys dominate and the whole pitching staff in Tampa can keep it up and take my mind off them!

    • whozat says:

      “Or if we’d have gotten Cole?”

      Sure, it’d “look better,” but I’m not necessarily convinced it’d turn out better long-term. Obviously, what they do with the comp pick plays into that, but the kid would have been 4-5 years away from the bigs, with the kind of maturity problems that make me concerned.

    • pat says:

      I think alot of guys are poised to have huge years and will make you forget about cole. Seems like the three outfielders from the Dominican could come stateside, deleon, sosa and urena. Big brack is finally healthy same with garcia, they have 2 of the most electric arms in the entire organization. A bunch of the short season guys are looking to bust out in a major way- banuelos, vizcaino. I’m looking forward to following a bunch of the 08 draftees too- marshall, mitchell, higashoika, turley cojo, lassiter, chris smith.
      Yeah it sucks we missed out on porcello and cole but we are still absolutely stacked with impact arms.

      • Chip says:

        That’s very true. I think Nik Turley could be one of our bigger sleepers. The kid could get some Nardi medicine and start throwing 95 from the left side

        • pat says:

          Yeah, turley is my personal #1 sleeper. According to pplus (which should be taken with a grain of salt, I know) the kid is very coachable and picked up a servicable changeup after only a few weeks of coaching. I know pat’s extremely optimistic when it comes to the quality of pitches but if the kid can improve himself in such a short time, thats an extremely good sign for a 6’6 lefty. I picture us talking about how hes a top 10 prospect in a few yrs despite being literally one of the last guys drafted in 08.

        • Frank B. says:

          Can this young man really hit 95, or is that a projection? Any scouting reports on him???

          • pat says:

            From what I’ve seen in a few places he only sits like 89-91 or so with the . He has a decent curve and a developing change but they’re both pretty inconsistent but have good potential. I think his fb control is decent but needs work. The great think is he’s lefty, 6’6 and a beanpole. If he can add 15 or 20 lbs he should see a nice velocity jump which would really put him on the prospect map.
            Not too bad for a 50th round pick.

            • Chip says:

              Yeah, Joba “only” hit 94 in college before Nardi came in and tweaked his delivery a bit. I wouldn’t be surprised if Turley ends up sitting around 91-94 and if he can get a change going, he’s going to be awesome

  6. teix is the man says:

    assuming everything goes right with ajax, could he be a bj upton like player?

    • whozat says:

      I don’t think so. I don’t think Jackson will hit for quite the average that Upton can. I think the Mike Cameron in his prime comp is pretty accurate. And that guy had some real solid offensive years in there, with great defense at a premium position.

      • Thomas says:

        Cameron is a good comp for Jackson with the bat and athleticism. However, I highly doubt Jackson will be nearly as good as Cameron was defensively, few are.

        • whozat says:

          Hyperbole? I know Cameron was an amazing defender, but “not nearly as good” seems strong. I understood that Jackson projects as a plus defensive player, not merely above average.

      • Adam Hobson says:

        I don’t like the Cameron comp at all. Jackson will probably max out as a 15-18 home run a year guy, Cameron on the other hand put up more than 20 rather regularly while hitting 30 once.

        On the other hand, I think Jackson will hit for a higher average than Jackson’s career .250.

        I actually don’t think that BJ Upton comp is all that out there, though with much less speed. I think the player we think BJ Upton is, is very different from the player he actually is, thanks to his high draft position. Hell, Upton has a career line of .277/.367/.426 which I think is pretty reasonable expectation for Jackson. I just see Jackson topping off with no more than 20 or so stolen bases in a season, while Upton stole 40 something last season alone.

  7. Joey says:

    “Minor league RHP Mark Melancon broke Cano’s bat during BP.”
    heh, it’s from:
    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=3926360
    Down on the bottom in the notes

  8. Baseballnation says:

    Was it me or did I totally miss Jairo Heredia on the list??

    • Chip says:

      Heredia is an interesting case. He’s very advanced for his age but more because of out-smarting hitters and getting them to chase than really dominating them. I can understand somebody feeling that way about him especially when you look at his walk totals last year which really aren’t sustainable at higher levels when guys start laying off stuff out of the zone.

    • Reggie C. says:

      I think the reason he’d be missing is he got pushed out by physically stronger pitchers. Last i read, Heredia barely stood at 6 feet. I think alot of ceiling projects are capped simply b/c 6 foot pitchers dont fit today’s prototypical look of a prospect. Heredia tailed off badly at the end so indeed he does have to get stronger.

  9. Rich says:

    Unless Melancon is rated where he is because he’s a reliever, Goldstein is sleeping on him.

    I’m glad he changed his previous position on A Jack.

  10. Simon B. says:

    That is a pretty generous list. Frankly, I’m not sure if I would give Ajax OR Montero 5 stars—Jesus is still quite a ways away.

    It seems rare that we’re talking about a neutrally drawn up prospect ranking that actually may overvalue the Yankees farm a bit. But hey, hopefully he’ll prove us wrong.

    • Reggie C. says:

      Neither guy is a 5 star prospect. But both guys are arguably just a tier below. Though Ajax isn’t Colby Rasmus, its understood that Rasmus is a 5 star prospect. Ajax may be ready defensively now, but his offensive ceiling precludes a 5 star ranking. Montero’s defensive limitations at catcher doesn’t knock him off 5 star ranking BUT his uncertain positional future definitely does.

  11. Januz says:

    I find this list very interesting: I would like to find out where Brandon Laird is. He had 23 homers and 86 RBI’s in Charleston (Better numbers than Suttle) I also would like to know why he ranked Coke and Aceves over Melancon?

  12. Adam Hobson says:

    For everyone wondering why Montero and/or AJax were five star prospects, you have to remember that to Goldstein a five star prospect is basically a Top 50 prospect. And since Montero was something like 36 and A-Jax something like 48 on his Top 100 list, that makes them both five star prospects in his system.

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