Open Thread: PECOTA’s projected standings

Reports from camp
THT on pitch sequences

pecota-2009-al
(click chart for a larger view)

Baseball Prospectus released their 2009 projected rankings yesterday, and sees the Yanks finishing second in the AL East behind the BoSox. PECOTA has the Yanks finishing 97-65, just one game back of the Sawx, but more importantly it projects the Yanks to have the best pitching in the majors. Their 674 projected runs allowed is ten runs better than Boston’s, but what scares me is that the four best pitching staffs in the AL – and four of the five best staffs in the bigs – reside in the AL East. That’s kinda crazy.

Based on these projections, the Yanks would finish with the second best record is baseball, although they’d have to settle for a Wildcard spot for the second time in the last three years. That’s fine with me. Get in however you can, and I’ll take my chances with a rotation of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Chien-Ming Wang and Joba Chamberlain in a short series. You can see the NL projections here.

Here’s your open thread for the evening. The Islanders and Nets are playing at home tonight, and the Knicks are out in Oaktown. Anything goes, just be be nice.

Reports from camp
THT on pitch sequences
  • Tom Zig

    Impressive, an 8 win improvement is pretty huge. Although 838 runs scored is a bit low. Can’t wait for the season to start.

    • Artist formerly known as ‘The’ Steve

      Its the post-steroid era (we hope), get used to it.

      • Tom Zig

        yeah but in 2007 they scored 968.

  • http://thejoeyhshow.blogspot.com/ Joey H

    Yeah I’ll be covering these tonight. I think they are pretty insane. I don’t see how the Angels can drop off to be THAT bad, nor do I see the Mets winning the division. Pretty crazy stuff.

    • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

      Well, they were 12 games over their Pythag Record (88-74) and with the loss of Tex and no real offensive filler for him so far, I can see that.

    • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      Meh, I agree that the Mets are being overrated, but I can easily
      see the Angels falling off a cliff.

      They only had four guys wOBA over .350 last year: two of those are old and breaking down (Vlad Guererro and Torii Hunter) and the third and fourth are currently under the employ of the Yankees and Braves. Unless they wisen up and add Manny, that lineup is punchless.

      And, while their top three starters are quality (Santana, Lackey, Weaver) their fourth, Joe Saunders, looks to have been really lucky last year (a 3.41 ERA vs. a 4.36 FIP, which is his career average, plus an abnormally low .267 BABIP) and is due for a regression, and the fifth is up in the air (although subtracting Jon Garland is probably a plus, all things considered).

      • http://thejoeyhshow.blogspot.com/ Joey H

        No, I am the first one to say they aren’t going to be near a 100 win team again but what I am saying is that 4 games under .500 is a a bit of a stretch. Meh, I’ll talk about it on the show tonight.

    • Artist formerly known as ‘The’ Steve

      I believe it, and Torre’s Dodgers are in big trouble w/o Manny.

      The Angels led the league in winning 1 run games last year, and now they’ve lost Tex, their closer K-Rod, Garret Anderson, and Vlad (who was slowing down last year) is a year older.

      Also, despite their great W-L record last year they were 15th in Runs Scored (10th in the AL) and their run differential was that of a middling team. They have some pitching, but it looks like they just don’t have enough hitting to repeat.

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        Essentially, until Manny lands somewhere, all these predictions are worth diddly-poo.

        (Although there’s probably no way he lands in the AL East, AL Central, or NL Central, so I guess 50% of these predictions are diddly-poo.

        • Artist formerly known as ‘The’ Steve

          Angels haven’t been connected to Manny in any way lately. Reagins was even quoted as saying he’s not interested.

          So I agree you can’t predict the NL West right now, where both the Dodgers and Giants have been linked to Manny. But the AL West looks pretty set.

          • barry

            Anyone else think the Nats become contenders if they picked up dunn?

            • Artist formerly known as ‘The’ Steve

              In the NL East? No chance.

              • barry

                I don’t know, he’s everything they’re missing. The Mets are good but always choke themselves out of it and the Phillies aren’t everything they’re chalked up to be. Just seems like Dunn may be able to add a lot to their offense.

  • Ryan S.

    They project the AL East to absolutely wreck havoc on the rest of the league. The Rays finished 3rd with 90s win, while the other 2 divisions have only 1 winning team each. Wow. I’m curious how they figured the Angels end up 79-83, however. I suppose if the season started today, that might be the case … but I would guess LAA is not done with their hot stove activity yet.

    • Ryan S.

      *92 wins for the Rays

      • Artist formerly known as ‘The’ Steve

        I think the Rays are going to take a big step back this year Especially in the bullpen, which really over performed last year when you look at guy’s career numbers. With their lineup (13th Runs Scored/9th in AL), they can’t afford that.

        88-90 Wins for me. Still a good team, they stay in the hunt but never really challenge.

        • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

          I agree with this, and the same could go for the Phillies. Well, not the run scoring thing but the bullpen thing. And I still don’t believe in that rotation beyond Hamels and the Dr. Jekyll half of Brett Myers.

          • Mike Pop

            Not disagreeing but really none of their batters had career years. That is the scary thing about them.

            • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

              Who? The Phils? Yeah, I think their hitting will be fine–potentially missing Utley for a long time might hurt–but I think it’ll be alright.

              • Mike Pop

                Well, I meant the Rays but I guess it applies to Philly also.

                • kSturnz

                  as long as the rays beat up on the sawx again, I’m fine.

                  However, i really don’t see the Rsox outslugging us again; it seems like they are taking into account and carrying over our injuries from last yr. we were approx. 271/342/427 last yr. Pinstripe glasses, maybe so, but 259/341/424 seems like a big dip. I guess JoPo and Sui won’t improve or get more at bats than last yr and Tex,X/Swish is a wash to Giambino,Bob

        • 27 this year

          They just signed Brian Shouse to help and I think are waiting to sign others as the market collapses.

  • Erick

    Not only the top four in the AL and the top five in the league in pitching, same thing goes for hitting as far as runs scored… scary.

  • C. Roy

    Im surpised that I guessed the division winners (with yanks and sox switched) pretty spot on with them. Althought I had the Giants winning the nl west and reds the wild card (my own wild card lol)

  • Mike Pop
  • LC

    I’m not surprised by seeing a regression in the Angels (their X W-L last year was pretty mediocre)

    I’m surprised that there’s no love for the Twins. The central has only one winning team, the Indians, which shocks me. I think The Twins have nice pitching depth and you can’t argue with Mauer and Mourneau.

    Are you guys surprised with the lack of love for the Twins?

    • Mike Pop

      I definitely am. 79 wins? I think they are over 500 pretty easily. Especially facing the Royals and White Sox so often.

    • A.D.

      There is no Twins love

      • Mike Pop

        Cause they need Bill Heywood.

        • Whitey14

          A Bill Heywood must be allowed to speak his mind!

  • mike jones

    The Yankees only winning 97 games? blasphemy!

  • Mike Pop

    What I don’t get is how the Red Sox get more wins from last year. With the Yanks vastly improving, no Manny, and the speculation around Ortiz’s ability they gain wins. Also I don’t think they have guaranteed their team to improve with their offseason so far. None of those guys are sure things. I really do think the Yanks will finish with a better record than them. Got a better lineup and improved our rotation. I know 1 win is no big deal but I would like to see them win the division.

    • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

      Well, I guess PECOTA sees a big “rebound” from Beckett, Dice-K to keep up his lucky ways, a big season from Jason Bay, etc.

      I also saw some extended projections on RLYW and it had Nady getting the lion’s share of the ABs and not really being that great.

      • Sweet Dick Willie

        I would think that if Nady is getting the lion’s share of the ABs and sucking, then Joe will start giving Swish the majority of the ABs. That’s the beauty of depth!

    • El Generalissimo

      yea, I agree with you… 3 teams in the AL east with over 90 wins that’s insane. Maybe it’s time to move the Rays or Jays to the 4 team AL west. In addition, I just don’t see the Sox scoring more runs then the Yankees. Our line-up is vastly superior. Plus, with a healthy Posada, Matsui and hopeful resurgence of Cano and Swish…

    • Jonathan

      and i would be very surprised to see if yook and pedroia have the same mvp year they had last year

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        FACK YOUK

        • Artist formerly known as ‘The’ Steve

          Seriously, worse blog name ever.

          • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

            Yeah, it’s like “The Be Sharps”. Clever at first, but worse and worse each time you hear it.

            • Mike Pop

              Alex, I’ll take Hor-Semen for 400. Hor like your mother, semen.

              • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

                Yeah, I’ll take, um, the Ape Tit thing for 200.

    • A.D.

      It true, they loose Manny for the full year, which Bay definitely will not make up for, Dice-K should have a worse year, Lowell is probably hurt to start the year.

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        L-O-S-E

      • SF Yanks

        *Lose* gosh dangit! Has to be the most common mistake ever made.

        There’s loose, as in: loosen up that bolt.

        And there’s lose, as in: Red Sox will lose 95 games.

        • SF Yanks

          Whoops. I was only 2+ hours late on the refresh button.

  • asdf

    Their predictions are close to what I thought, at least as far as position in the standings, and the East is scary close to what I thought, even the number of games behind the other teams would be.

  • THU

    Pettitte has to be in your post season rotation. He’s the best post season pitcher we got.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      I don’t buy it. 3.96 ERA & 1.35 WHIP doesn’t scream postseason stud.

      Run the power pitchers out there, that’s what wins.

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        My playoff rotation prediction: 1) CC 2) Wang 3) Pettitte 4) Hughes

        (Joba’s shut down or in the pen. Hughes took over for A.J. midseason when he got injured and he (Hughes) was dominant.)

        Title #27.

        • A.D.

          CC with a normal number of innings under his belt going into the playoffs is going to be nice

        • http://nyfaninboston.blogspot.com/ Manimal

          Where is the optimism? I know AJ burnett will get hurt and will mis a chunk of time but I really think he has figured out how to pitch the right way.

          • Mike Pop

            A.J. won’t get hurt this year. I have a “gut feeling”.

          • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

            In my defense, at least I have Hughes pitching like a stud in relief of hurt A.J. I’m optimistic in that sense…

      • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

        Hmm, those numbers are strikingly similar to his regular season numbers. What does that say about the playoffs when you get enough experience…? Hmm…

  • A.D.

    Obviously these projections are in-accurate, they don’t have the mets chocking down the stretch.

    • A.D.

      *choking

  • A.D.

    Predicting a Phillies – Braves 1 game playoff for the wild card, interestng

    • Mike Pop

      Their a bunch of cliffhangers over there at PECOTA.

  • A.D.

    Ohh Navarro lost his case, victory Rays

    • Mike Pop

      Fair deal though.

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        He’s just another overhyped Yankee bust prospect.

        • Artist formerly known as ‘The’ Steve

          Yeah, thank goodness we traded him away. It’s not like we have an aging catcher or anything.

        • Alex

          was he not in the all star game while he was hitting about .320?

  • Artist formerly known as ‘The’ Steve

    Sirius XM Prepares Bankruptcy Filing

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/11/technology/companies/11radio.html

    Wow, who saw this coming. They’ve only been losing hundreds of millions of $$ ever since they opened.

    True story, my BROTHER was on a Sirius show, and I still couldn’t listen to the thing.

    • Mike Pop

      How is Howard going to get his money?

      • A.D.

        Yeah a lot of that is equity stake he took…he’s not. Though they could just be looking to reorganize and still be a company

    • mustang

      That sucks I love the MLB package on XM.

  • http://nyfaninboston.blogspot.com/ Manimal

    Good hockey game tonight, Sharks vs Bruins(I was suppose to go to the game but I couldn’t). 1-1 in the first period so far.

  • Mike Pop

    Baseball needs to start!

  • http://www.facebook.com/home.php?ref=home#/group.php?gid=43434432275 Ace

    Pedroia’s brother facing molestation charges

    http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/28864962/

    I hope he is not guilty for the sake of the child.

    • Artist formerly known as ‘The’ Steve

      Yeah, well (improper anti-Sox comment which draws the ire of fellow posters) and then he should have (even more tasteless follow up).

      Not that (half-hearted attempt to minimize the damage) or nothin. I’m just sayin.

      • Mike Pop

        Can’t even touch this one.

        • Artist formerly known as ‘The’ Steve

          That’s just been the pattern that seems to follow every one of these Pedroia’s brother posts.

        • usty

          That’s not what he said.

  • Chris

    I’m looking at the projections and I can’t quite figure out how they project the Sox to give up fewer runs than last year. They’re projecting significant declines for Matsuzaka and Lester, and I just don’t see where that will be made up. It’s not like there are any major improvements projected in the rotation.

    I also think it will be interesting to see how the Yankees offense compares to these progressions. In real life, they’re hoping for bounceback years from 6 players: Jeter, Melky (or Gardner), Cano, Swisher, Matsui, and Posada. The law of averages suggests that at least some of them have to have better than expected years, the question will be how many.

    • Alex

      some will also get injured or have down years, hopefully very few

  • Bob Michaels

    I don`t buy into the Pecota ratings.

    • Mike Pop

      Projections are projections. Anything can happen in the season so there is no reason to buy into them.

    • A.D.

      I don’t need to watch the season now that these ratings are out, I already know how it ends.

  • Phil McCracken

    I don’t see Boston’s offense being that good, unless Ortiz starts hitting like he did in 2003-2004.

    • El Generalissimo

      you mean when he took steriods?

      • Steve H

        you mean when he took steriods and before his body began to break down prematurely in part due to taking steroids?

    • Artist formerly known as ‘The’ Steve

      They also have lots of question marks in that rotation. Beckett getting shut down last year and shelled in the playoffs has to raise an eyebrow, Dice-K is turning into Hideo Nomo part 2, who knows with Bucholtz/Masterson and then you have Wakefield and the rehab kings (Smoltz/Penny). Penny has shoulder issues, those usually don’t get better even AFTER surgery, which he hasn’t had. We all love John, but he’s 42 and coming off shoulder surgery as well. Plus he’s changing leagues and moving to Baseball’s toughest division. That’s a lot to ask of anyone, even a HOFer like him.

      The way I see their rotation, Lester is the only sure thing they have, though I’d still be confident in Beckett until the wheels come off. 3-5 I have a ton of doubts.

      Did I mention their bullpen yet?

      • Steve H

        Lester is the surest thing, but you still need to be concerned with his huge innings jump last year. If healthy he should be a sure thing, but that’s no guarantee.

        • Chris

          Lester 2008/2009 = Carmona 2007/2008

          • Mike Pop

            I hope so but I’m not banking on it.

  • touchtoneterriost

    CC,WAng,Pettitte and Burnett in the post season rotation and JOba in the post season pen would win a world series.BUt hey people don’t want to win.Whatever.

    • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

      Chamberlain in the rotation at any point is better than Andy Pettitte.

      • Alex

        unfortunately, he’ll probably have to be in the pen in the postseason tho bc of his innings limit. but a 4-man of CC, Wang, Burnett and Joba would be scary

      • Steve H

        And better than Wang (postseason rotationwise only, for now). Historically (so don’t mention Moyer) power pitching is what wins in the playoffs. We now have 3 top power pitchers. Sweet.

      • MattG

        Wait a minute–I totally am in the “Joba is a starter” camp, but if you have 4 plus pitchers to throw in the post-season, I have no problem making Joba the first one out of the pen anytime the game is within a couple of runs. But you CANNOT save him for the eighth inning. When the starter is gassed, you go to Joba–even if its the sixth inning, even if your down a run or two.

        If you use an ace in the pen in the post-season, that’s quite a bit different than using him that way during the season. With the off-days, Chamberlain could easily pitch in 5 games of a 7 game series, and throw 8-10 innings. That’s 1 1/2 starts, but presumably all high leverage innings.

        • Mike Pop

          We know Chamberlain doesn’t belong in the pen. He attracts bugs.

          • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

            Well, that’s just great. You hear that, Ed? BUGS. Now you’re putting the whole station in jeopardy.

    • toad

      Maybe it’s a good idea to see how the season plays out before we decide on our post-season rotation.

  • Jake H

    Playoff bound is what they need. Once there anything can happen.

  • Artist formerly known as ‘The’ Steve

    Report: Dodgers Could Make ‘Big Splash’

    “Don’t be surprised if the Dodgers not only sign Manny Ramirez but Orlando Hudson as well,” writes Bordow. It sounded like speculation at first, but Bordow confirmed to me in an e-mail that he heard the news from a “pretty reliable source.”

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/02/report-dodgers.html

    • A.D.

      DeWitt will make a nice utility infielder

      • Mike Pop

        DeWitt for Berroa and Melky. Get it done.

  • http://amonthoffundays.blogspot.com Phil in LA

    I don’t think the Red Sox will be ahead or even especially close to the Yankees.

  • http://asportsaddictneedsdivineintervention.blogspot.com/ E-ROC
  • Alex

    http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/29128398/page/1/
    they may release the other 103 names

    • A.D.

      They shouldn’t release them

      • Alex

        i agree

        • Mike Pop

          I just really hope no other Yankees are on that list. Tex especially.

      • Artist formerly known as ‘The’ Steve

        I hope there are 20 Red Sox on that list. I need some names to yell back at them at the stadium.

        • Alex

          and it will make mitchell(aka sox’ exec) look bad

        • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          Why wait for some stupid list? Yell the names anyway, if you want to.

    • Artist formerly known as ‘The’ Steve

      That would certainly take the heat off Alex, but it will just pop up again when that Selena Roberts book comes out. I hope what were hearing now about that book isn’t true, because that would blow the steroid stuff out of the water.

      As far as the names go, Al Leiter said something interesting on WFAN today. He said those tests were a result of over 1,000 samples being taken, some players taking the test twice. There are only 700+ players in MLB at any given time. So it’s VERY possible some of the same players failed the tests twice. So while there are 103 positive test cases remaining, that may work out to 70-75 actual names.

      He was a very involved with the union at the time (Met player rep) so he should know.

  • Artist formerly known as ‘The’ Steve

    Angels Clearing Space For Abreu?

    “The Angels are thought to prefer Bobby Abreu over Adam Dunn, according to a source. One GM pursuing Abreu said Tuesday that he was told Abreu was close to signing with an Amercian League team, writes Rosenthal.”

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/02/angels-clearing.html

    Huh? Dunn would be a MUCH better fit for that lineup, which lacks pop. He’s younger, plays an OF position about as poorly as Bobby does and could give Vlad some much needed protection in that lineup.

    Bobby’s a nice player, but I think he’s clearly on the decline and you don’t want to be the team that has him when he can’t get around on the fastball anymore.

    • A.D.

      Considering the Angles are the anti-sabermetrics baseball team it would make sense they go for Abreu over Dunn

      • Mike Pop

        I really don’t get the hate on Dunn. This guy should be signed by now.

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

        I really hope we get a nice clip of $10M GMJ and $4M Bobby Abreu sitting next to each other on the bench or standing in the OF at some point.

        • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          Perhaps they’re signing Bobby and then taking both Bobby and GMJ to Mexico for a dangerous, highly illegal mind-melding organ harvesting operation to combine the best parts of both of them into one effective, awesome player.

          Independently, they both kinda suck. But together, through the miracles of comic-book science, they can be one freakishly good überplayer.

      • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

        Considering the Angles are the anti-sabermetrics smart strategy baseball team it would make sense they go for Abreu over Dunn

        Fixed.

        But, seriously, Abreu over Dunn is just foolish.

        Pipe dream: Dunn stays un-signed partially through spring training, Matsui somehow gets hurt (I don’t want that, it would suck but bear with me), the Yankees sign Adam Dunn. There would be much rejoicing in Matt-ville that day.

        • Mike Pop

          I hope Dunn takes a 1 year deal with the Rangers. So I can see what kind of damage that lineup could do and the Yankees could go after him next offseason for the DH/OF spot.

          • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

            That’d be nice, sign Damon for a one + one to play left, Dunn to DH.

            2010:
            Damon
            Jeter
            Rodriguez
            Tex
            Dunn
            Posada
            Swisher
            Cano
            Gardner

            • Alex

              Austin Jackson instead of Gardner or Damon. kid’s a monster. pretty sick line-up either wat

              • Alex

                way*

              • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

                I’m gonna wait to see how he does in a full season at AAA first before I’m penciling him in to the ML lineup.

              • Ryan S.

                I definitely think we need to give AJax a chance – a cheap, quality long term solution to CF is exactly what this team needs. I do like the idea of giving Damon a 1+1 deal for 2010 if he puts up another quality campaign this year.

                • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

                  I agree wholeheartedly. I’m pumped for A-Jax but he’s my age (b. 1987). There’s no rush, right? I want to see him get some polish at AAA and get that walk rate back up.

                • Ryan S.

                  Well that’s why we have 2009. That boy better be ready by 2010 though, we need him and its a golden opportunity for the kid. There are some scenarios that could play out where AJax is more than just a September call up this year .

                • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

                  I hope you’re right but I’m not going to expect it. He’s still got some growing to do as a player.

    • Ryan S.

      Dunn is probably still asking for more money and more years. If Abreu is starting to come around to the market and is considering realistic deals while Dunn still wants an above-market deal with ST right around the corner, I can see why a club would want to just go with Bobby at this point.

  • http://amonthoffundays.blogspot.com Phil in LA

    As of around Christmas time, the Dodgers were way behind expected ticket sales as their fans waited on Manny and a pitching staff.

    • Artist formerly known as ‘The’ Steve

      That, or the fact that the entire country is in a depression right now.

  • http://amonthoffundays.blogspot.com Phil in LA

    Teams got very defensive value conscious this offseason as more and more of them think we’re heading into a pitchers era.

    • Bonos

      About time for defense appreciation. Tampa says hello.

  • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

    Man, if ever there was a cartoon character ripe for suicide watch, it’s Charlie Brown.

    • Steve H

      Open threads in February. This is what you get!

  • http://nyfaninboston.blogspot.com/ Manimal

    Looks like Abreu is heading to the Angels.

    • Artist formerly known as ‘The’ Steve

      Don’t get it. Not when Dunn’s still out there.

      Though last I heard Dunn was still looking for 3 years, maybe that’s why.

      • Mike Pop

        Well I guess they are both OBP guys who work the count. That’s the Angels’ biggest need.

        • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          Dunn just turned 30 and is consistently wOBA’ing in the .380’s. Abreu turns 35 in a month and is now consistently wOBA’ing in the .360’s.

          Even if Bobby only wants 1 year and Dunn wants 3, it’s the wrong decision. It’s not like they only need a bat for 2009… they’ll need Dunn’s bat in 2010 and 2011 as well. So there’s no point in intentionally going hardline on a short-term deal like we did with Andy Pettitte….

          Bad move by Reagins.

          • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

            Manny on an anything >>>>>>> Dunn on a 3 >>>>>> Bobby on a 1

            • Ryan S.

              At least with Abreu going to LAA, it all by assures that Manny is staying in the National League. If he isn’t going to sign with us, I want that man as far away from Yankee Stadium as humanly possible.

  • MattG

    I think the Boston projection is spot on. .347 OBP? The only one in their starting lineup I know will be under that is Varitek. All other spots are likely to be around that, including Lowrie, Ellsbury and Lowell, and the rest will easily clear that mark.

    The slugging number is a little harder to figure, but .433 seems pretty reasonable.

    What I don’t understand is how the Yankees manage only .341/.424. Only Cano and Gelky will have any trouble posting a .341 OBP this season, and I expect Cano will manage it, and Gelky will be close enough. Even if you add Molina’s at bats to Posada’s, Jorlina will still top .341. And there is no question in my mind that the Yankees have more slugging than Boston (park effects subtracted).

    The only explanation I have is age. PECOTA might be projecting some real drops for the older Yankees, while the young Sox are projected to improve.

    • Steve H

      Is the Yankees lineup really any older than the Sox though?

      1b-Equal
      2b-Equal
      3b-Sox older
      SS-Yankees older (but much better offensively)
      LF-Yankees older
      CF-Same
      RF-Sox Older
      C-Equal

      I used approximations, thinking that the difference between 26 and 28 really shouldn’t matter for the sake of the age argument.

      • Steve H

        And DH. Yankees older, but depends on health, could be Nady/Swisher. Ortiz is 33 or so, but is moving like he’s 40 this year.

      • MattG

        Or look at it this way…

        More likely to fall off a cliff:

        1b-neither
        2b-yankees (Cano doesn’t rebound. Pedroia won’t repeat last year, but he doesn’t have to)
        3b-sox
        ss-both (Jeter’s downward trend probably isn’t unnoticed by PECOTA. Lowrie is no sure thing, but I like his chances)
        lf-yankees (call me a pessimist, but I think Damon will not have a graceful decline)
        cf-yankees (nothing to do with age–just suckitude)
        rf-yankees (unless Drew misses half the year)
        c-even (how much farther can Varitek fall? But Posada already missed the whole year)

        • Drew

          lol so only two positions will stay the same or improve?

    • Alex

      i dont get the yank’s obp ranking either. they added tex and swish (albeit dropped giambi and abreu), but also get matsui and posada back

    • Ryan S.

      It really does seem to me like PECOTA is underestimating the potency of the Yankee offense … fairly understandable considering we were mediocre last year. Still, one would expect improved output compared to last season from Jeter, A-Rod, Posada, Matsui, Cano, and Swisher … not to mention what should be a prime year for Teixeira.

      • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        It’s awesome… we rock, but still get to play the “Nobody believed in us but us!” meme all season long.

        • Ryan S.

          Its become trendy for pick against the Yankees. This is the year we punch everyone in the mouth (baseball rivals and sports pundits alike) and remind them who their daddy is.

  • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

    Jeter saying nothing as usual…

    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3897102

  • Drew

    If this is true about Swish with the weightloss. I see no reason why he can’t patrol all positions in the outfield. Yet and still, the melkman will be ready for centerfield! Cant wait

    • http://actyankee.blogspot.com Matt

      Well, he’s said that he was uncomfortable in centerfield with the White Sox last year and the numbers point to him as a MUCH better corner outfielder. If I’m Joe Girardi, he’s my opening day –and full season-starting right fielder.

    • A.D.

      Well weigh tloss doesn’t make Swish a good CF or more comfortable playing the position. Sure maybe he lighter, moves a little better, is a little faster. But net in net he’s not suddenly a CF because he lost 16 pounds.

      If Nady lost 16 pounds this offseason would he be a CF? If Damon lost 16 pounds would you suddenly want him patrolling CF again. I doubt it.

      Its good for Swish that he lost weight, presumably is in better shape, and hopefully will have a great season. But none of it makes him a CF

  • A.D.

    I don’t get why the Mariners aren’t all over Dunn

    • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      Because they know they’re gonna lose 100 games again but don’t want to spend 100M again to do it?

      That’s all I got.

  • http://6pound8ouncebabyjoba.blogspot.com Kevin

    Those prediction are really terrible. Maybe they just have bad information, but this is how its gonna be.

    The Yanks and Rays will be top dogs in the AL East. I’d say the Yanks are the better team now, but injuries pending that could change. Boston isn’t going to be as good as everyone thinks. Dice-K’s stats are going to get largely worse( look at his BABIP). Beckett didnt exactly have his best season last year. Ortiz is not the force he used to be, and the absence of Manny’s bat all year will very clearly be seen, no matter how well Jason Bay performs. Both pedroia and Youk played out of their minds last year, and won’t do so again. With crisp gone, they dont have the outfield depth they used to( kotsay isnt that good).

    The Royals are going to win the AL Central. Mark my words. Gil Meche and Zach Greinke are a nice 1-2 duo, and there is talent in the rest of their starting options, with Luke Hochevar and Brian Bannister potentially being big contributors. an outfield of Teahen, Crisp, and Dejesus is pretty goddam good. add in Jose Guillen if he performs at his best, and you’ve got a really strong outfield. Alex gordon has promise and could be the offensive force the royals need. at 1st with Mike Jacobs, Kila Ka’lihue (?), Ryan Shealy, and Billy Butler, somebody will show up. They are going to be good, while the Chisox have gotten worse with the departures of Swisher, Javy vasquez, orlando cabrera, and Joe crede. The twins could be good, mostly just because gardenhire is a genius, liriano is nasty, and joe nathan, joe mauer, and justin morneau are all phenomenal players. But there are definitely doubts about that team, namely 3rd base. The Indians might be good, but cliff lee can’t replicate 08, they don’t have sabathia at all, and travis hafner seems to be a lost cause. Sure, franklin guttierez, grady sizemore, kelly shoppach, and victor martinez all have upside, but the indians aren’t very good at having all their upside show up at the same time. And then the tigers need to much of a rebound from verlander, willis, and johnson to be competitive. Their pitching will surely be their downfall.

    And really? The A’s winning the west? Holliday’s good, but not that good. Giambi was a good pick, but isnt the game changing bat they needed. No one else on the team has great OBP abilities or power. And despite the strong bullpen, the rotation isnt strong enough. Duchserer was fine in 08, but can he really keep that low era he never had as a reliever? THe rest of the crew with eveland, gallagher, braden, and gonzalez is pretty risky. Kurt suzuki isn’t as a good of a catcher as they would hope for, and mark ellis and bobby crosby just don’t strongly deliver, while eric chavez always gets injured. The angels have a’pen with fuentes, arredondo, and shields. And the loss of k-rod won’t hurt as much as some expect it to. Remember saves are overrated, and k-rod still blew a few last year. With lackey, e. santana, joe saunders, and jered weaver, the anaheim rotation has experience, but still is young enough for improvement. and if nick adenhart comes up and is as good as we thought he would be, this team could be great. o, and dont forget they’ve got vlad guerrerro, torii hunter, chone figgins, and now possibly bobby abreu. They also happen to have mike scioscia, who is hands down the best “baseball” manager in the game. he calls a game better than anyone else in baseball. The Rangers are going to have a ridiculously good offense with chris davis, ian kinsler, michael young, hank blalock, josh hamilton, nelson cruz, and murphy, andruw jones, marlon byrd, and cattalanoto competing for another outfield spot. Not to mention the upcoming speedster elvis andrus, and a postition battle at catcher between two of the best catching prospects in the game in saltalmacchia and teagarden. they also have lots of nice minor league arms ready to break out at the big league level, plus millwood and padilla entering contract years. and as long as their pitchers can keep the ball on the ground they could see success with andrus’ fine glove and newly signed backup gold glover omar vizquel. Texas and LAA are better teams than oakland, that I know.

    On the NL side. How could the marlins possibly come in last in the nl east????? They’ve got Hanley, uggla, cantu, willingham, and maybin on offense, and nolasco, johnson, sanchez, volstad, and miller in the rotation, this is going to be the team to beat in the nl east. The mets, braves, and phillies all arent as good as they say. phillys rotation is weak, ditto mets, and braves dont have the offense. CUbs’s win the central, but the reds will come in second (volquez, cueto, harang, maybe bailey pitching, and phillips, votto, and bruce in the lineup). And the west will most likely go to the pithcing-stacked SF team, and if they sign manny watch out. The rox have lots of upside though, and the dodgers have some talent too.

  • dr

    Red Sox 864 684
    Yankees 838 674

    Fenway is good hitter’s park. I don’t know if they put new Yankee stadium as neutral or slightly pitcher’s park, like the old one was. Pecota predicts Red Sox to have the best run prevention (pitching + defense), and run scoring is about equal.

  • Rob S.

    I’m not sure if that would be the Yanks playoff rotation. It’s hard to imagine Pettite not getting a start with all of his playoff success. I guess it depends on how they all perform during the season.

  • My Geass Makes You My Slave

    The Sox are a little overrated but it’ll be close from 1-3 place. The Sox just got a bunch of old vets during the offseason so how much improvement they’ve shown should be minimal. They’re rotation is good if Beckett can bounce back but if the Yankees rotation stays healthy, we should be better. The run production is a little low. We got Teix here who not only is a great hitter but a hitter that will put pressure out of A-Rod thus making A-Rod a more effective hitter. He’ll do much better this season than last year and we don’t have to cross our fingers for him to hit when there’s someone in scoring position. I think we’re a better team than the Sox but barely better than the Rays. But all in all it’s going to be a close division, sucks that all 3 can’t be in the playoffs while some terrible NL West team is a .500 win averge makes it in.