Feb
12

Open Thread: Vegas Watch over/unders

By

The gang over at Vegas Watch posted their over/unders for each team’s win total this year, and have the Yanks set at 96. Here’s the full list:

I’m going to say under on the Yanks, just because I don’t think you can predict any team to win 95 or more games these days. As for the rest of the AL East, I’ll say under, over, under, over, just going down the line. I’ll also take the over on the Phils, Marlins, Giants and Twins, and the under on the Brewers, Cards, Dodgers, Tigers and Angels. For everyone else … all bets are off. So what do you guys think?

Elsewhere in interwebiverse, Buster Olney’s Battle of the Budget team beat the Yanks 4-1 in a simulated seven game series. Here’s the box scores. It just a simulation of a short series, so don’t get worked up over it. Notice how Buster’s team used Joba out of the rotation (7.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 11 K in Game 4) while the simulation had Joba working out of the bullpen for the Yanks (3 appearances, 4.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K). Good thing he impacted all those extra games, right?

Anywho, talk about the over/unders or ESPN’s simulation or whatever else you want here. There’s no local teams in action tonight, but the 40th Annual NAACP Image awards are on. I guess that’s something. Play nice.

Categories : Open Thread

144 Comments»

  1. VO says:

    Joe who won the book?

  2. Kilgore Trout says:

    http://newstadiuminsider.blogs.....views.html

    This was news to me. How do you spend 1.3 bio on a stadium in the bronx and wind up with some obstructed views?

  3. radnom says:

    It wouldn’t be too outrageous to take the over here. Only 7 games under last year with no CC no Tex no Posada no Matsui no Swisher 1/2 season Wang 1/4 season Joba. Next year should be good.

  4. Ryan S. says:

    I like how ESPN portrayed Buster’s lil old $40,000,000 team beating the Big Bad, Steroid-infused Yankees and their $200,000,000 payroll in the article. Its not like Buster was just one of 4 teams in the fantasy draft and had his pick of the best deals and youngest high quality talent out there. If it was a 30 team fantasy competition, the Yanks would have massacred whoever they faced.

    Gotta give props to Olney, though … he won with a team that would only work in a simulation, pretty smart. Those platoon splits he used wouldn’t have worked out so well in the real world, with most of his players not getting playing time often enough.

  5. Kilgore Trout says:

    How much does the Dodger number go up when they sign Manny?

  6. LC says:

    Hmm..A’s at 79 games. I think I’d take over on that. It looks like they are poised to sign Orlando Hudson and they’ve already added Holliday and Giambi.

    I think they’ll at least be a .500 team if not better.

  7. J.R. says:

    My one prediction for the year is that Joba plunks Youklis at least once.

  8. 27 this year says:

    Under on the Mariners, they suck and haven’t done anything to improve.

  9. A.D. says:

    Over on the O’s

  10. J.R. says:

    Over on the Giants for sure.

  11. pat says:

    This is pretty funny- Go to google.com and type in “I am extremely” then press down to look at their suggestions. The last one is hilarious.

  12. Mike Pop says:

    I know Crabtree has literally been THE MAN but I might go there and say I like Hakeem Nicks a little more. Crabs plays in a college system while Nicks does not. Anyone have an opinion on these guys?

    • pat says:

      I can understand the difference between a college and pro system when it comes to a quarterback but is there a difference for receivers? Run to a spot and catch the ball no?

      • A.D. says:

        the system gets them open would be the issue, or that they’re basically fed the ball inflating stats.

        But thats what the combine is for

    • A.D. says:

      The only knock you can have on Crabtree is he lacks breakaway speed, but even without that he’s the #1 receiver in the draft…definitely better than Nicks

    • Thomas says:

      The thing about Crabtree and the system only works to an extent. No player in any of those systems (TT, Hawaii, BYU, and so on) has every put up Crabtree’s numbers. Crabtree’s freshman year stats are like 50% better than any other receiver in Texas Tech history. He is the best WR prospect in this draft.

    • E-ROC says:

      I’d still take Michael Crabtree over all the other receivers. I like Jeremy Macklin as the second best receiver then Hakeem Nicks. I would put Percy Harvin next, but I haven’t watched enough games of him besides highlights on ESPN. Then there is Kenny Britt.

    • Yeah, Hakeem Nicks is nice, but he’s just not Michael Crabtree.

      Crabtree’s probably the best WR prospect in the draft since Larry Fitzgerald and Braylon Edwards. I’d put him right up there with those two. Nicks is not on that tier.

      • Mike A. says:

        This might be a dumb question, but in the off chance that they isn’t franchised, what do you think about the Jets signing Julius Peppers and converting him to LB, which he wants to do?

        • Well, 1) the Jets probably don’t have the cap space, and 2) You’d have Bryan Thomas, Calvin Pace, and Vernon Gholston at OLB. I don’t think he’s a fit.

          • Mike A. says:

            Thanks for crushing my dreams. I’ve always been a J-Pep fan. Every year in Madden he was one of the first players I tried to get.

          • Well, 1) the Jets probably don’t have the cap space, and 2) You’d have Bryan Thomas, Calvin Pace, and Vernon Gholston at OLB. I don’t think he’s a fit.

            #1′s probably right. #2 is a non-issue. Bryan Thomas is a non-factor; I have no problem benching him (and he’ll be cut for cap purposes at some point anyway) and Gholston may be a bust; I hope he turns around but I’m not going to hand him a job, he has to earn it. I’m not letting his presence on the roster stop me from adding either J-Pep (who’s a great fit but out of our price range) or Terrell Suggs (if Baltimore foolishly decides not to franchise him).

            In any event, it’s the NFL: if you’ve only got two passrushers, you don’t have enough. If I could (but I can’t), I’d totally run a four-man heavy rotation in the two OLB spots of Pace + Peppers/Suggs + Gholston + Thomas. Keep shuffling them in and out, keep them fresh, and keep attacking the QB.

            Having waves of excellent passrushers is what won the Giants that Superbowl. Having Strahan + Osi + Kiwanuka + Tuck for two spots MADE that team.

  13. Mike Pop says:

    Friday the 13th tonight!! Probably going to suck but I’m gonna check it out.

  14. A.D. says:

    Over on the Marlins

  15. sevrox says:

    %$#@! Arod – batted only .056 in the simulated series.

    Yanks should just release him.

    And he hasn’t even called Girardi yet to apologize for all the BS.

    • pat says:

      ok pete abraham

    • Ryan S. says:

      Its pretty funny how A-Rod chokes even in a simulated postseason though.

      • pat says:

        Yea thats why its bullshit you know they did something to the simulation to make him suck. I don’t believe for one second a true computer simulation would get those results.

      • Artist formerly known as 'The' Steve says:

        I’m halfway through “The Yankee Years” by Torre.

        Alex is the anti-championship run player in so many ways according to Joe. The unselfish, do the little things to win, be a blend in guy stuff. To put the recent playoff failures all on him would be wrong, but he certainly did his part. Anyway, I still think they can win with him, assuming they pitch well.

        I’m also amazed at how much I agree with Torre about Baseball, since I wanted him fired from 2005. Many of the players I never liked he didn’t like either, but I still think he was incompatible with the youth movement Cash was trying to institute.

  16. Thomas says:

    Under on the Mets, no way they break 90 wins.

  17. A.D. says:

    Talk about a fall, on August 24th 2007 the Seattle Mariners were 3 games up on the Yankees for the wildcard, since then they’ve lost 62% of their games, and aren’t going to be good in ’09

    • Artist formerly known as 'The' Steve says:

      After the Bedard deal and last year’s off season moves, I (and a lot of others) had picked them to win the AL West. Its amazing just HOW wrong you can be sometimes.

  18. Matthew says:

    If I had to pick 3, I’d go OVER Indians, UNDER Yanks, and OVER Royals.

    I full expect the Yanks to win the division, but with the AL East being real strong, I’ll take the under.

  19. Money line says:

    Gotta love the rangers at 77, in that division with that lineup, with chris davis kinsler and hamilton and young… gott think that win at least 80

  20. Scott of 3 Kids Tickets says:

    As much as I hate links:

    http://tinyurl.com/SterRod

    An interesting article about the Ster-Rod situation, and how he could/will drag the whole team down….

    -Scott

    • Sweet Dick Willie says:

      The only way he drags down the team is if he doesn’t produce, and I don’t see that happening in ’09.

      The media will try to make it an issue, but Alex should just say “I’ve already addressed that issue, and will only be speaking about baseball from now on.”

      • Artist formerly known as 'The' Steve says:

        He will need to get off to a good start. If he has a bad April, then the book stuff starts leaking out by early May, you could see things getting out of hand. It’s not like he has a stellar reputation for handling pressure.

        I’m just so tired of all the distractions that constantly surround this guy. It never ends.

      • I still predict Alex mashes the crap out of the ball. .330/.425/.620.

        Every breaking ball he sees will look like Selena Roberts (or Bud Selig’s) face.

        • Ryan S. says:

          A-Rod has been training for this year all his life. First, he was one of the best sure-thing position prospects ever. Then he was the young rookie superstar sensation. Then the owner of the biggest sports contract ever. Then he was got traded and became insane tabloid fodder. Then he became the two time MVP (in a Yankee uniform) who still was always Jennifer Jason Leigh to Jeter’s Bridget Fonda. Then he got divorced – before and after that he fucked Madonna. And now he’s A-Roid. Oh well, its just another day in the life for him. Watch him be the most overlooked MVP candidate ever this year too, btw. No way anyone gives him that award no mater how much he earns it.

  21. Manimal says:

    I’d go Under on Angels and over on Giants.

  22. Manimal says:

    Anyone who gets Sportingnews, the magazine, should read the cover article, its really good.

  23. Scott of 3 Kids Tickets says:

    Via PeteAbe:

    “Equipment manager Rob Cucuzza left some available numbers on the shelf. No. 6 (Joe Torre), No. 21 (Paul O’Neill), No. 35 (Mike Mussina), No. 51 (Bernie Williams) are not being used. Cucuzza also didn’t give out No. 53. Maybe he thought there was a chance Bobby Abreu would return.”

    Would players using any of these numbers bother you and if so which ones?

    I’m not sure any of them would bother me. Bernie’s maybe? I don’t think ONeil’s would…

    -Scott

    • whozat says:

      I’d say JoeT, just because it’d be escalating a situation that’s already laden with stupid drama. I’d be bothered by it because of all the dumb news stories I’d have to hear about it :-)

      And Bernie’s, for the right reasons. I want them to kiss and make up and have his number retired some day. He really was an enormous part of what gave the Yanks the advantage they leveraged into 4 championships. Posada, Jeter, Williams was WAAAAAAY stronger up-the-middle than any other team during that period.

      And I like Moose, but don’t really care about his number.

      • Meh, I’d put all four of those numbers on the wall (Torre, O’Neill, Moose, and Bernie) but I’m in the minority there, I know.

        Lots of Yankee fans say there’s too many numbers on the wall, guys who shouldn’t be there (like Reggie). I love the obnoxiousness of all our numbers and want to make it even MORE obnoxious to irritate non-Yankee fans even more.

        I’d retire 6, 21, 35, 51 and (eventually) 2, 20, 42, and, you guessed it, 13.

        (I’m also totally good with retiring 11 for Lefty Gomez as well. Never understood why he didn’t get more love.)

        • Matt says:

          I love the obnoxiousness of all our numbers and want to make it even MORE obnoxious to irritate non-Yankee fans even more.

          I’d retire 6, 21, 35, 51 and (eventually) 2, 20, 42, and, you guessed it, 13.

          I’m on board with all of that, but I’d have to think about 35. Meh.

          • Look at Moose’s 2001-2008 and compare it to all other Yankee starting pitchers in history. It stacks up pretty damn well. (This sounds like the makings of a post, btw…)

            Plus, while he probably goes into the Hall with an Oriole cap, what if he lets the Hall know he’d prefer a Yankee cap and they acquiesce? Moose the HoF Yankee pitcher, with 123 wins for the Yanks… I’m warming you up to it, aren’t I?

            • Matt says:

              Alright, alright. I’ve got a sofft spot for Moose as it is.

              And I credit you with selling me on Tim Raines as an HOFer.

              • Artist formerly known as 'The' Steve says:

                Moose gets in now. He was borderline before all the steroid stuff broke, and now since he’s considered to be one of the ‘clean’ players (and has the scrawny arms to prove it) that makes his accomplishments seem more impressive.

                Many (if not most) HOF voters say they won’t vote for any steroid guys. I’m not sure if they can hold to that, especially of 60-70% of players used steroids at some time, but you can see them giving Moose bonus points to him for being one of the ‘clean’ guys.

    • Thomas says:

      But 21 is Hawkins number.

      Seriously, I wouldn’t care if anyone took any of those numbers.

      • Sweet Dick Willie says:

        I’d love to see them issue #6 to Cody Ransom.

        And when some asshole member of the press questions them on it, respond by saying “Joe who?”

        • Thomas says:

          I want to see what would have happened if FA at the level CC said he’d only sign with the Yankees, if was allowed have number 3. Do you sign him or let him walk? I’d say screw history and sign him.

      • Artist formerly known as 'The' Steve says:

        Bingo.

        -I LOVED Bernie, but he’s not an all time great.

        -Paul O’Niell wasn’t even as good as Bernie

        -I have mixed feelings on Torre. He’s obviously qualified, but was so bitter about leaving and still is, that you could offer him a day and he’d probably turn it down. Plus, I’m VERY tempted to give that #6 to a big prospect like Montero. But if they patch things up, he HAS to get his day.

        My big problem with all these retired numbers is that I plan on the Yanks having a Joe McCarthy like run under Giradi, followed by another Stengel like run under (manager) Derek Jeter. You can’t retire everyone, you have to have higher standards about these things. I would restrict it to HOF’ers AT A BARE MINIMUM. Guidry, Elston Howard, Maris, even my beloved Billy Martin would not be retired.

    • MattG says:

      I’d like them to give Swisher 21 right now, for two reasons:

      1. Maybe this will help him turn into Paul O’Neill, which is a good thing, and
      2. I get to hear O’Neill bellyache about it, which is hilarious

  24. E-ROC says:

    Would anyone trade for Delmon Young?

    • Mike Pop says:

      Yea. I wish we had a young 3b with upside we could deal for him. Only if Suttle was close to the majors!!

      • whozat says:

        If they had such a young 3B, I’d try to flip him in a deal that helped the team more. Young can’t play CF, he doesn’t walk, and he’s not hitting for power anymore. I don’t really want to play him over any of Damon, Swisher, or Nady, so…

        • Mike Pop says:

          I hear ya but I would be ecstatic for that kind of deal. Delmon Young has a whole lot of potential and I’m not all about this deal in just 09 but for 2010, 2011, and beyond. If he can do what he’s capable of, he is a heck of an asset to a team like the Yankees. Would be a gorgeous outfield with both him and Ajax in it. 2 young guys who don’t cost much right now. I’m fine with him playing a corner. 2010 and beyond was what I was really looking at. Plus this would allow Nady to be traded without having too much regret.

      • K.B.D. says:

        Move E-Dunc back to the hot corner and get this deal done Ca$h!

      • Yea. I wish we had a young 3b with upside we could deal for him. Only if Suttle was close to the majors!!

        ARod for Delmon Young.

        Done and done.

    • Thomas says:

      I trade for him, but I wouldn’t give up anything of major value, like Hughes, for him. It looks like he will never walk and his power seems to have disappeared.

    • Mike A. says:

      After the season, see if his stock drops any more.

      • But if his stock drops more, why would the Yanks want him?

        • Mike Pop says:

          Buying low is awesome.

          • Steve H says:

            You’d be doing that now. If he has another meh year, at what point do you decide Delmon Young is what he is, and not what everyone thought he would be?

            • Mike Pop says:

              But if you bought low and didn’t give up anything of real value, it would of been well worth the risk, no?

              • Steve H says:

                If he has another year like last year, you’re probably no longer buying low, you’re buying Delmon Young for what he is, which isn’t very good. If you get him this year, maybe you’re buying low, but at some point, you’re just getting him for what he is. When the Tigers got Todd Van Poppel off waivers when he was still only 24, they weren’t getting him cheap, or buying low, he just wasn’t a good pitcher, and wasn’t going to be one, despite his former phenom status. Now obviously Young will be better than Van Poppel, but another year like last year, and the phenom luster may be gone.

                • Mike Pop says:

                  I disagree with ya there. He would only be 25 in 2010 and he could be a “late bloomer”. But this is all unrealistic so it doesn’t really matter.

                • Steve H says:

                  Who said you were allowed to disagree?

                  Seriously, I do like the thought of buying low on Young, but at some point it’s too late. Maybe he will be a late bloomer, and if he is, hopefully it’s with the Yankees. And if not with the Yankees, it’s because Cash sucks.

                • Mike Pop says:

                  Haha, true.

        • Mike A. says:

          Well, they have nowhere to stick him this year, and the cost would come down. It would be like the Swisher deal again.

          • A.D. says:

            And we would have corner outfield space

          • Steve H says:

            But Swisher was an established major leaguer coming off a bad year. Delmon Young, with another similar year, will be nowhere near as established as Swish was, and won’t have a projected bounce back year in him, as he doesn’t have a whole lot to bounce back to.

  25. RichYF aka sooooo tired of the "namedrop says hello" meme says:

    Wow, totally not relevant, but Tino 100% struck out in the 7th inning on that 2-2 pitch before he hit the GS. Holy cow that was right over the plate.

  26. Mike Pop says:

    Dan McCutchen was invited to Spring Training for Pitt. I really hope he makes the rotation, I always liked him.

  27. Mike Pop says:

    Wow, D-Wade. CLutch.

  28. MattG says:

    Wait, I know how to get the media focus off of A-Rod!

    Sign Barry Bonds.

  29. MattG says:

    My three mortal locks: Angels UNDER, Blue Jays UNDER, White Sox UNDER.

    The only overs I like are the Marlins and A’s.

  30. Gio says:

    this scared the shit out of me until I realized what I was reading. http://www.theonion.com/conten.....dead_at_33

    • Drew says:

      yea that aint funny.. i got one positive out of it tho, never really thiought that we have him until 2017! thats crazy.

    • usty says:

      A-Rod is survived by 33-year-old Alexander Emmanuel Rodriguez, a divorced father of two who is currently in therapy and who, despite being in extremely good physical condition and possessing the ability to hit 500-foot home runs, has no future in baseball whatsoever.

      HAHAHAHA

  31. Scott of 3 Kids Tickets says:

    Via NYT:

    If Ken Griffey Jr. is about to return to the Mariners, its news to him.

    “We don’t know what we’re doing next year with respect to Seattle, it’s all rumors,” Griffey said

    -Scott

  32. mike says:

    over on giants, under on angels and way under on white sox are the best bets

  33. [...] The Vegas projected team wins came out yesterday.  River Ave. Blues played the over/under game; this seems fun, let’s give it a [...]

  34. Donny says:

    Craig Breslow in Buster’s Bullpen. TRUMBULL Represent!

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