Unbridled fantasy optimism

Yanks have the odds
RAB Live Chat

As Spring Training approaches — today’s the ever-popular Truck Day up in Boston — the fantasy guides are hitting the Internets. Today, both MLB.com and ESPN.com unveiled their respective guides, and while I’m not complaining much, the early projections for the Yankees are widely optimistic.

Take, for example, Mr. Rodriguez. MLB predicts a .293/.381/.570/41/124 season for A-Rod, and ESPN predicts .303/.393/.585/44/130. Mark Teixeira looks primed for a big fantasy season as well. When you add up the totals, the Yanks come out with around 850 runs scored via ESPN and 958 via MLB. The playing time totals are a little sketchy, but I’d take that improvement in a heart beat.

On the pitching front, Sabathia emerges as a true ace. MLB pegs him at 19-8 with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP while ESPN predicts 19 wins, a 3.33 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. Both sites believe he’ll toss more than 230 innings in 2009. Adding up the pitcher’s win totals on ESPN puts the Yanks at 95 for the season; MLB targets a 98-win season for the Bombers. Pessimistic PECOTA these are not.

In the end, of course, these projections are great for the plethora of upcoming drafts — and yes, we’ll probably put together a RAB Fantasy Baseball League — but they’re not great for much else. It’s fun to imagine that everyone on the Yanks will be as great as their potential, and it’s wishful February thinking to target a 98-win season for the Yankees. But if the stars align just right, it may just become reality.

Yanks have the odds
RAB Live Chat
  • kSturnz

    ESPN predicts a better season than Alex’s predicted by MLB??

  • Arin

    Do you mean 1.14 WHIP for CC’s MLB forecast?

  • Mike Pop

    I don’t think we want to see CC throw more than 230 innings this year.

    • A.D.

      I hope he doesn’t, at least not in the regular season

  • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

    My prediction for Mo:

    0 wins, 0 losses, 65 appearances, 65 innings pitched, 65 saves, 195 batters faced, 195 strikeouts, 585 total pitches thrown, 0.000 WHIP, and an incalculable GB/FB ratio (since you can’t divide by zero).

    • http://www.supertangas.com The man with 33 fingers

      and 83 broken bats.

      • whozat

        and 83 broken bats.

        Bust.

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

        No, because that would mean someone made contact, which as we all know is impossible.

        • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          Could be 83 broken bats on check swing called strikes.

          Mo’s a sneaky fucker.

          • Arin

            Bo Jackson’s not in the league anymore.

            • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

              I thought that was Albert Belle? Maybe they both did it …

  • A.D.

    Melancon, #20 Yankee by MLB:

    43 innings, 4.02 ERA, 1.28 WHIP. 38Ks in 43 innings.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      I’ll take it.

  • A.D.

    MLB

    Swisher:

    250/359/452/811

    Nady:

    286/336/487/823

    Tough decision still…OBP, or Slugging?

    • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      OBP >> SLG. Plus, in this case, OBP + defense >>>>>>>>> SLG.

      Swish.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      Definitely OBP.

      The difference in slugging in 35 points, and the difference in batting average is 36 points. If a few more singles drop in for Swisher his BA and SLG go up to Nady’s level, but his OBP will go up as well, and that will crush Nady’s OBP.

      • Ed

        By that same logic though, if a few more singles drop for Nady, his BA, OBP, and SLG all go up, bring his OBP up to Swisher’s level and BA & SLG way higher.

        I realize the stats say Swisher was unlucky last year, but he’s already projected to raise his BA 31 points over last season. Jumping even more than that from one season to the next sounds like a bit of a stretch. Nady’s projections call for a regression from last year’s stats, so I’d think he would be more likely to beat the projections than Swisher would be.

  • http://nyfaninboston.blogspot.com/ Manimal

    Joba 11-5, 3.06 ERA in 140 innings. 158 K’s. BEAST.
    Hughes 9-6, 3.67 ERA in 128 innings and 110 K’s.

    • Mike Pop

      We can only hope.

    • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      I can only assume that the “11-5” for Joba means 11 holds and 5 bullpen wins, since we all know Joba’s going to be in the 8th inning where he belongs.

      • whozat

        So, I listened to the Moose interview on Francesa’s show yesterday (on the WFAN website). Mostly because I like Moose, and I’d heard they talked a lot about Moose’s time with the Yanks and his point of view on the team as it transitioned through the Wells/Clemens/Pettitte years to the can’t-get-to-the-world-series-anymore years. It was pretty interesting; Moose is a smart and articulate guy, and he was there for a long time.

        I was kinda disappointed, though, when Moose sort of agreed with Francesa that Joba is a better fit in the bullpen. The question was kind of posed in a loaded way, but still…instead of pointing out Joba’s dominance as a starter and saying “He, like most 23 year old kids, is still kind of inefficient with his pitches. But you learn, and he could be a great starter,” Moose kinda went with Francesa’s point of view that Joba’s “mentality” is perfect for the pen, and used the pitch inefficiency as supporting evidence for the BJobber position.

        Disappointing.

        • http://www.supertangas.com The man with 33 fingers

          real informative.

    • Tom Zig

      As long as that stiff from Boston, Peter Gammons, doesn’t pick Hughes as a Cy Young candidate again I will be ok. I swear that man is a walking curse.

  • A.D.

    Posada:

    274/375/473/848

    ….more than happy for that production

    • whozat

      I’d be ecstatic with that production.

      Though, it depends on how many games we’re talking about :-) If it’s 60, that’s not so good. 100, that’s real good. 120…big yums.

  • Brooklyn Ed

    hmm is it me or did the reply button just got bigger?

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Ben K.

      Happened last night.

      • Ed

        Now that we’ve got the giant reply button, any chance you could make it so that clicking anywhere on the button works? It’s kinda weird having the big button there but still having to click on the word.

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Ben K.

          Yup. Coming up soon. Good call.

    • Should be working

      Its you.

    • radnom

      I don’t liek it.

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Ben K.

        Care to elaborate?

        • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          I read somewhere the new reply button attracts bears. Bears can smell the new reply button.

        • A.D.

          For me its not as aesthetically pleasing as the old one…but if it gets people to “reply to comment” I’m all for it

  • Matt

    Man, that ESPN Fantasy header and new logo are really sharp!! ;-)

    • Mike Pop

      Lol

  • http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/CRsmithT1.jpg tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

    Heh, regression prediction for Dioner Navarro:

    2008 Statistics – .295/.349/.407/.757, 7 HR, 54 RBI, 43 runs
    2009 Projections -.275/.324/.390/.714, 8 HR, 53 RBI, 46 runs

    Outlook: It’s hard to believe Navarro is just 25; it seems like 10 years ago he was an overhyped Yankees prospect. The kid had a tremendous 2008, posting a career-best .295 AVG, but beware. His batting average on balls in play was .321 (compared to a previous career number in the low .280s), which means he was very lucky. Considering he won’t help you in any other category, there’s no reason to consider Navarro as a starting fantasy catcher in mixed leagues.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike A.

      I don’t think he was ever overhyped, if anything I think he didn’t get as much love as he should have. Even with that decline he’s still a starting caliber MLB catcher.

      • The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

        Agreed. Whoever wrote that blurb should explain how he was “overhyped.” He’s a productive MLB starting catcher. He was overhyped because he was a Yankees prospect and didn’t become Yogi Berra? Please.

  • Reggie C.

    What’s MLB and ESPN’s respective outlook on Robbie Cano? Is he returning to a line of .300/.350/.480 ?

  • My Geass Makes you My Slave

    It’s official. MLB knows nothing about baseball. They think A-Rod is going to do worse even with pressure taken off him? Without pressure A-Rod is great. They are underestimating him. ESPN got it but I think he can do a little better than that.