A simple example is flipping a coin. Everyone knows the probability of heads is .5. What’s the probability that you will get a heads on the first flip? That’s .5 of course. What’s the probability that you will get your first heads on the second flip? Well, you would need to get a tails on the first flip (that’s a .5 probability) and a heads on the second flip (again, .5 prob.), so the probability that both of those things happens is .5 times .5, which is .25. What’s the probability the first heads appears on the third flip? You would need two tails then a heads, which is .5 x .5 x .5, or .125. You keep doing this process and you have built a geometric probability distribution. Really simple. It’s gets a little more complicated when you are talking about extra inning games but not a ton more complicated.

But I think its an interesting question and probably more important than “clutch”. I would rather want to know who performs well against the best pitchers (who you will probably face in the post season)

Is there any one up for the challenge?

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…the ability to hit better pitching. We’ve all seen minor leaguers who mash at one level, yet can’t hack it at the next. Isn’t it sensible to think that major leaguers are the same way? Isn’t a hitter’s ability to hit top pitching a better way to evaluate a player than looking at his numbers in “bases loaded” “scoring position, 2 out” “late and close” or “runners on” situations, particularly if you’re a team like the Yankees who is very interested in how a player will perform in playoff situations, where the pitching is much better?
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