Comments on: What are the odds? http://riveraveblues.com/2009/03/what-are-the-odds-9544/ A New York Yankees Blog Tue, 14 Feb 2012 22:19:03 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Slugger27 http://riveraveblues.com/2009/03/what-are-the-odds-9544/#comment-315755 Slugger27 Thu, 02 Apr 2009 06:40:49 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=9544#comment-315755 No <b>WAY<b> No WAY

]]> By: andrew http://riveraveblues.com/2009/03/what-are-the-odds-9544/#comment-312711 andrew Sun, 29 Mar 2009 17:45:09 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=9544#comment-312711 Thanks Bob, you said it better than I did. Thanks Bob, you said it better than I did.

]]> By: steve (different one) http://riveraveblues.com/2009/03/what-are-the-odds-9544/#comment-312709 steve (different one) Sun, 29 Mar 2009 17:44:55 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=9544#comment-312709 <b>Holliday’s Coors numbers aren’t meaningless– they serve as a baseline from which we can subtract to find his likely 2009 numbers.</b> that's all i'm sayin'... Holliday’s Coors numbers aren’t meaningless– they serve as a baseline from which we can subtract to find his likely 2009 numbers.

that’s all i’m sayin’…

]]> By: Bob@RunningLocal http://riveraveblues.com/2009/03/what-are-the-odds-9544/#comment-312708 Bob@RunningLocal Sun, 29 Mar 2009 17:43:10 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=9544#comment-312708 Don't be lazy. Longoria had a slightly higher Road OPS (.877 vs. .871), a much higher Road BA (.293 v. .253) and he hits many more doubles on the road but twice as many homers at home. Overall, in 2008, Longoria was better on the road than at home. In terms of Holliday, Coors Field is the third best park in the league for HRs and Runs Scored, best for singles. McAfee in Oakland plays middle of the road for HRs, bottom half for other significant factors. Holliday is a good hitter-- no question-- but he will likely see a fair sized downturn in his stats not only for loss of the extremely friendly environment at Denver but also because he's changing leagues, which almost always causes a downturn in offensive stats, at least for the first half of the first season as batters face new pitchers throwing a different style than NL pitchers do. Holliday's Coors numbers aren't meaningless-- they serve as a baseline from which we can subtract to find his likely 2009 numbers. Don’t be lazy. Longoria had a slightly higher Road OPS (.877 vs. .871), a much higher Road BA (.293 v. .253) and he hits many more doubles on the road but twice as many homers at home. Overall, in 2008, Longoria was better on the road than at home. In terms of Holliday, Coors Field is the third best park in the league for HRs and Runs Scored, best for singles. McAfee in Oakland plays middle of the road for HRs, bottom half for other significant factors. Holliday is a good hitter– no question– but he will likely see a fair sized downturn in his stats not only for loss of the extremely friendly environment at Denver but also because he’s changing leagues, which almost always causes a downturn in offensive stats, at least for the first half of the first season as batters face new pitchers throwing a different style than NL pitchers do.

Holliday’s Coors numbers aren’t meaningless– they serve as a baseline from which we can subtract to find his likely 2009 numbers.

]]> By: andrew http://riveraveblues.com/2009/03/what-are-the-odds-9544/#comment-312703 andrew Sun, 29 Mar 2009 17:29:40 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=9544#comment-312703 Right, for example, Greg wrote before about Joba's win over/under being 13.5, and I think most of us on here would be happy if he surpassed that. However, many people overly buy into the hype and set unrealistic expectations like a 18 win season and then take the over. It's not about predicting reality, it's about predicting everyone else's perception of reality. Right, for example, Greg wrote before about Joba’s win over/under being 13.5, and I think most of us on here would be happy if he surpassed that. However, many people overly buy into the hype and set unrealistic expectations like a 18 win season and then take the over. It’s not about predicting reality, it’s about predicting everyone else’s perception of reality.

]]> By: andrew http://riveraveblues.com/2009/03/what-are-the-odds-9544/#comment-312702 andrew Sun, 29 Mar 2009 17:26:51 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=9544#comment-312702 Well all I'm saying is... Firstly, for a guy who has average 13 steals per year over his 5 year career, it's hard to expect him to grab 25 when he's moving to a team that actually runs less than most. Sure, he had 28 last year, but that's the outlier here. I don't see how you can say Billy Beane is going to have him run a lot when Beane is known to be against stealing bases. Secondly, yea, most guys play/field/pitch/hit better at home, but the difference between .280/.348/.455 and .357/.423/.645 is not just due to Holliday feeling comfortable at home. Also, it's funny you mention Longoria has better states at home, because "everyone does." These are his splits: Home: .253 /.326/.545 Away: .293/.361/.516 My main issue was not your comparison to Longoria however, it was when you said that Holliday will "maybe" have a "slight drop off." I think it's pretty likely that Holliday has a pretty decent drop off. Well all I’m saying is…
Firstly, for a guy who has average 13 steals per year over his 5 year career, it’s hard to expect him to grab 25 when he’s moving to a team that actually runs less than most. Sure, he had 28 last year, but that’s the outlier here. I don’t see how you can say Billy Beane is going to have him run a lot when Beane is known to be against stealing bases.

Secondly, yea, most guys play/field/pitch/hit better at home, but
the difference between .280/.348/.455 and .357/.423/.645 is not just due to Holliday feeling comfortable at home.
Also, it’s funny you mention Longoria has better states at home, because “everyone does.” These are his splits:
Home: .253 /.326/.545
Away: .293/.361/.516

My main issue was not your comparison to Longoria however, it was when you said that Holliday will “maybe” have a “slight drop off.”
I think it’s pretty likely that Holliday has a pretty decent drop off.

]]> By: 27 this year http://riveraveblues.com/2009/03/what-are-the-odds-9544/#comment-312696 27 this year Sun, 29 Mar 2009 17:05:05 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=9544#comment-312696 yea yea

]]> By: steve (different one) http://riveraveblues.com/2009/03/what-are-the-odds-9544/#comment-312693 steve (different one) Sun, 29 Mar 2009 17:04:15 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=9544#comment-312693 no he isn't. this is what he said: "of course coors helps his numbers some, but to totally dismiss them as if they never happened when comparing to longoria is insane" which is 1000% correct. no he isn’t.

this is what he said:

“of course coors helps his numbers some, but to totally dismiss them as if they never happened when comparing to longoria is insane”

which is 1000% correct.

]]> By: steve (different one) http://riveraveblues.com/2009/03/what-are-the-odds-9544/#comment-312692 steve (different one) Sun, 29 Mar 2009 17:02:32 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=9544#comment-312692 how did you get them, stubhub? i think i need to do this. how did you get them, stubhub? i think i need to do this.

]]> By: Ben K. http://riveraveblues.com/2009/03/what-are-the-odds-9544/#comment-312690 Ben K. Sun, 29 Mar 2009 17:01:35 +0000 http://riveraveblues.com/?p=9544#comment-312690 And you're ignoring park effects. When you're talking about someone's home stats in Colorado, you can't just flat-out ignore park effects. And you’re ignoring park effects. When you’re talking about someone’s home stats in Colorado, you can’t just flat-out ignore park effects.

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