Cold Cody

Maybe Kevin Cash can play third?
Yankees Game 6 WPA

There’s no denying that Cody Ransom is having a terrible start to the 2009 season. With A-Rod‘s ramping up his rehab tomorrow, Ransom’s days on the Yanks are mostly numbered, but let’s take a quick look at how he’s doing. Ransom is 1 for 20 with 7 strike outs. So on balls hit in play, Ransom is just 1 for 13. That’s a BABIP of .077.

So while Ransom has been admittedly awful at the plate, he’s been rather unlucky too. If his BABIP were around .300 — generally the league average — he’d be hitting .200 on the season. While hardly stellar, that’s significantly better than .050. Hopefully, Ransom’s luck will turn around, and he can be even semi-useful until A-Rod returns. Six games in though, he’s been about as bad as Yankee fans feared, and those seven strike outs aren’t helping the cause.

Maybe Kevin Cash can play third?
Yankees Game 6 WPA
  • A.D.

    Hasn’t been pretty for Ransom, gotta figure most guys in AAA could come up and at least get one hit in 20 at bats, and play a not exactly stellar third.

    I’m surprised Joe hasn’t given Pena at least one start, I would think maybe tomorrow with Wang starting it wouldn’t be a bad plan.

    • Drew

      Yea I don’t understand what this young kid is doing just sitting on the bench. He should either be playing here or in Scranton.

  • http://nyfaninboston.blogspot.com/ Manimal

    I still don’t understand why they didn’t go after Dallas McPherson

    • Drew

      I forgot about him.. He just signed with the giants for a 4 year minor league deal. I guess we wanted to save room for Eric Duncan to play third. lol

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

        A 4-yr minor league deal? that can’t be right.

        • 27 this year

          I think he means that Mcpherson was signed to a minor league deal but at the end of the year, he becomes arb eligible so technically, the Giants have his rights for 4 years.

          Hopefully that is what you meant Drew.

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

            http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/04/giants-sign-dallas-mcpherson.html

            According to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle, the Giants signed third baseman Dallas McPherson to a minor league deal… If the signing is a success, the Giants can retain McPherson in future years as an arbitration-eligible player.

            ’09 was his first arb eligible year (he agreed to a one-year deal with the Marlins to avoid arb), so he figures to have 2 more arb years, making it a quasi three year minor league deal, not quasi 4 year minor league deal.

        • Drew

          To be honest I don’t know why I thought that.
          I read this article: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/nl/2009-04-12-744961186_x.htm
          I saw four seasons down in the last line and some how I misread it a he got inked to a four year deal. mah bad

    • http://forums.projectcovo.com/images/smilies/e6omir.gif Expired Milk

      Because Ransom has use as a utility infielder once Arod comes back. Dallas McPherson can only play 1B and 3B, so once Arod comes back theres not much use for him where as Ransom can at least sub for infield positions.

      Ransom all we wanted was for you to play some solid D and you could not even do that.smh

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        Because Ransom has use as a utility infielder once Arod comes back.

        Meh, if he’s going to put up a .056/.105/.111, then no, he doesn’t have value as a utility infielder.

        After 6 games I’m not ready to jump onto or off of anybody’s ship.

        But Mike Cameron and Mark Grudzielanek are looking a bit more tempting all of a sudden, don’t you think?

        • http://eastrutherfordrant.com donttradecano

          Andruw Jones Marco Scutaro look tempting right now.

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

            Meh, Jones and Scutaro both likely cost more (in prospects) than Cameron, I bet.

            Grudz don’t cost nothin’.

            • http://eastrutherfordrant.com donttradecano

              a couple of months ago jones woulda only cost cash. im just sayin….

              • A.D.

                he turned down the Yankees offer

                • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

                  And based on the fact that Gardner was tearing it up in the spring, I understand why. A little while ago, he figured Texas was a better chance for regular PT than the Bronx was…

          • http://heavysoundsandtheabstracttruth.files.wordpress.com/2008/12/alg_burnett-sabathia-3.jpg Mike Pop

            Hell, Ray Durham.

  • Simon B.

    That’s not how BABIP works. People need to stop using it as a barometer of “luck”, especially for hitters.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Benjamin Kabak

      Alright, Simon. Why don’t you provide an explanation and some background behind your blanket claim? It’s possible that my understanding based upon this article is wrong. I’d love to find out how though. While I’m using an overly simplified version of BABIP as opposed to the one Dutton and Bendix used for their model, I believe my point about Ransom still stands.

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Benjamin Kabak

        Ok. Drilling down on Ransom’s numbers — and it’s a small sample size — we see he has 7.7 percent of batted balls for line drives, 14.3 percent for fly balls and 38.5 percent for ground balls. The IF/F numbers are what’s killing his hits, but eventually, those should level out a bit.

        • Stephen

          I don’t want to speak for Simon, and I don’t think your point is completely off base or wrong, but maybe he’s saying that BABIP is not a great barometer at this point in the season, with a very small sample size. Also, a a LD% of 7.7 is very low, so he’s really just not hitting the ball that hard right now.

      • Ed

        It’s one thing to blame a low BABIP on luck when you’re talking about an established major league player with a track record. But we’re talking about a 33 year old career minor leaguer here.

        Remember, BABIP is a mix of skill and luck. It’s quite likely that the problem here is he’s overmatched by major league pitching and just doesn’t have the skills to make solid contact. If you can’t make solid contact, you’re going to have a terrible BABIP.

    • http://eastrutherfordrant.com donttradecano

      agreed. If you hit weak groundballs right at infielders thats not being unlucky. Ive seen maybe 2 or 3 balls that ransoms hit that maybe he was unlucky on.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      That’s not how BABIP works. People need to stop using it as a barometer of “luck”, especially for hitters.

      No, BABIP was used 100% accurately here in this evaluation of Cody Ransom.

      The problem is sample size. 13 balls put in play isn’t an “accurate barometer” of anything – luck, skill, or a combination – because it’s too small a data set to draw any conclusions from.

      Ransom going 1-13 on balls in play could be horrid luck, it could be horrid skill, it could be a combination of the two, it could be anything.

      • http://eastrutherfordrant.com donttradecano

        If i understand correctly, dont you have to compare it to xBABIP in order to determine if it was lucky or not?

        By just pointing out that his BABIP is only .077 isnt proving luck without comparing it to something, so simon is half right.

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Benjamin Kabak

          That’s more or less right, and I tried to elaborate in a comment above. However, as TSJC pointed out, 13 ABs is too insignificant a sample size to determine if luck is truly at work.

          Generally, players do not go 1 for 13 on balls in play. That’s all I’m saying right now. Anything else is conjecture based upon too few at bats.

          • http://eastrutherfordrant.com donttradecano

            to me theres two ways players go 1-13

            1) They suck.
            2) There off to a bad start.

            Either could be the case, hopefully we wont have to wait long enough to find the answer out.

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

              3) They can’t concentrate on hitting, either because ARod is a huge clubhouse distraction or because the decision to leave Joba in the rotation has them preoccupied with the team’s inability to build the Bridge to Mowhere.

              • http://eastrutherfordrant.com donttradecano

                your smarter than the average man.

                • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

                  You’re smarter than the average man bear.

                  Fixed.

          • Ed

            You’re definitely right that 13 at bats is too few to make conclusions about.

            But he’s 33 with a career total of 233 plate appearances. That’s too small a sample size to draw many conclusions from, but at some point you have to acknowledge that there’s a reason his sample size is so small.

            Hopefully A-Rod will come back before we have enough of a sample size to say that he sucks without any doubt, but, at what point do you right him off?

      • A.D.

        Exactly BABIP isn’t the same for hitters as it is for pitchers, hitters won’t all go towards .300 over time, great avg hitters will have BABIP over .300 others less so, but either way Ransom should have more hits given the amount he has put the ball in play, and his numbers since ’01 on fangraphs is .305.

  • Cor Shep

    with Wang starting tomorrow girardi better start Pena – his glove is disgusting..

  • http://www.puristbleedspinstripes.com Rebecca-Birfday Girl

    So who else misses Miguel Cairo?

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Benjamin Kabak

      So who else misses Enrique Wilson?

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        So who else misses Andy Stankiewicz?

        • kunaldo

          andy fox?

          • dkidd

            homer bush?

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

              Wee Willie Keeler?

              • BigBlueAL

                Wilson Betemit??

        • Ed

          The wonderful days when the big managerial debate was how to get enough at bats for Stankie the Yankee, Spike Owen, Andy Fox, and Mike Gallego…

          • BigBlueAL

            Dont forget Pat Kelly.

  • Rich

    BABIP should equal LD% + .120. His BABIP should be .197, so yeah, Ben is right, he has been unlucky, but he is still probably worse than replacement level.

    • Infamous

      I don’t think hes been unlucky at all. If you watch all of his ab’s he just looks overmatched.

      • Rich

        He has been overmatched quite a bit, but he has hit balls hard that have been caught. It’s not like granting that he could be a hitter with a .197 AVG entitles him to remain in the MLs. He has been awful, even if you attribute part of it to being unlucky. There is, however, an issue of limited sample size issue that should be acknowledged.

  • dkidd

    is alex allowed to sit in the dugout for any of the tampa games?

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Benjamin Kabak

      Yup. DL’d players can be in the dugout during games. They can’t do anything else. It’s explained in Rule 3.17 and the comment to that rule.

      • dkidd

        think he might make an appearance?

      • Tripp

        Ben, do you enjoy reading the MLB rule book and comments as much as the UCC and comments?

    • mark the spark

      A player on the DL is allowed to sit in the dugout during games. But I don’t think he’ll do this. He is not just resting while in Tampa. He’ll be rehabbing pretty agressively. It wouldn’t be in his best interest to then have to sit on the bench for 3+ hours. Not to mention, the media circus it would create to have him in the clubhouse. If he’s playing, you put up with all that. But not now. The Yanks don’t need it and Alex doesn’t need it.

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  • mark the spark

    I don’t care what the BABIP says. My eyes tell me he sucks.

  • Bo

    Unlucky? No. Hes just not any good. Pena should be playing 3b everyday while hes here and I bet thats what we start seeing.