Archive for April, 2009
Game 7: Moving down Matsui
Posted by: | CommentsAs the uproar over yesterday’s performance starts to calm down, another issue comes to the forefront. Mark Teixeira will not be in the Yankees lineup for the third straight game. The Yankees continue to claim that it’s just soreness, but one can’t help but be at least a little worried at this point. Thankfully, his MRI has come back negative and there’s hope that he’ll play tomorrow. Then again, they said that on Friday, so there’s no reason to believe it right now.
Even without the team’s two best hitters, the lineup doesn’t look all that bad tonight. There isn’t a major power threat in there, but it’s pretty solid one through seven. The last two spots are going to be black holes for the time being, at least until A-Rod gets back and bumps Ransom out and everyone else down a spot. Perhaps that will even spur some production from Gardner. For now, though, the Yanks will have to settle for seven solid hitters and no real superstar.
I’m a bit surprised that Girardi didn’t move Cano up in the order. Matsui’s down batting seventh, but Cano remains in the sixth spot. Sliding Cano into the cleanup spot would not only take advantage of his hot bat, but it would set the order nicely: R, L, S, L, S, R, L, R, S. Melky, despite his two double plays yesterday, gets the start in center. With Kazmir on the mound it seems like a good a day as any to sit Gardner, though I suspect he’d fare no worse than Melky despite the platoon advantage.
On the pitching side, Chien-Ming Wang looks to rebound from his shaky start to 2009. In 13 appearances against the Rays in his career, Wang has held them to a .255/.303/.350 line, going 7-4 with a 3.35 ERA. In two stars last year Wang pitched 13 innings and allowed just one run. That’s the kind of performance the Yanks are going to need out of him tonight. He’s opposed by Scott Kazmir, who has a 2.51 career ERA against the Yanks in 68 innings. Last year he held the Yanks to two runs in 17 innings over three appearances. Maybe we’ll get an old-fashioned pitchers’ duel tonight.
We end today’s game thread on a sad note. Phillies broadcaster Harry Kalas passed away while preparing for his job today. What a way to go. He was 73. Even those not in the Philadelphia area probably know Kalas’s voice. He did the voiceovers for NFL Films and the Campbell’s Chunky Soup commercials. RIP, Harry. Broadcasting just lost a great talent.
And as if that’s not sad enough Mark Fydrich was found dead at his home today. He was 53. Many of us are too young to remember The Bird, who retired from baseball in 1980 at age 25. He made his mark on the league by pitching 250 innings of 2.34 ERA ball at age 21 in 1976. Alas, he managed just 27 starts for the rest of his career. Fydrich will always have a special place in my heart; I did a biography report on him in the first grade…I believe my parents still have a photo of me in my homemade Tigers jersey.
The lineup:
1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Johnny Damon, LF
3. Nick Swisher, 1B
4. Jorge Posada, C
5. Xavier Nady, RF
6. Robinson Cano, 2B
7. Hideki Matsui, DH
8. Cody Ransom, 3B
9. Melky Cabrera, CF
And on the mound, number forty, Chien-Ming Wang.
How far down the generational line will the Yanks honor Ruth?
Posted by: | CommentsA few weeks ago, Ross at New Stadium Insider wondered why bloggers never pursue original stories. It’s a great thought, and one that we’ve been bouncing around at RAB for a while now. While we’re bouncing, Ross is out doing. He spoke with Linda Ruth Tosetti, Babe Ruth’s granddaughter, about her family’s treatment by the Yankees leading up to the opening of the new Stadium. Her family hasn’t been much involved since the new Stadium groundbreaking ceremony, in which the team declared that it’s time to “say goodbye to the House That Ruth Built and hello to the House that George Steinbrenner Built.” Ross does a great job framing the story, and asks a crucial question about a third of the way through: “After all, how far down the lineage of the great Babe Ruth should the Yankees cater to their every request?” Definitely a quality pre-game read.
No bullpen will have a 0.00 ERA
Posted by: | CommentsYesterday’s loss gave Yanks fans a chance to vent on the bullpen, and Phil Coke in particular. Yes, it was a horrific performance, and yes, Coke blew the game. That doesn’t mean, as one friend emailed me, that he’s a bad pitcher. It means that he’s been tattooed in two out of three appearances so far. That might prove to be the first signs of Coke’s ineffectiveness, but taken in isolation it doesn’t mean much at all.
Relievers are the most volatile players on a team in terms of results. One year a guy will be lights out, and the next he’ll struggle to record an out. Not only does this fluctuation happen on a year-to-year basis, but it happens from month-to-month, week-to-week, and even game-to-game. There’s just so much randomness that comes along with their individual one-inning samples that it’s tough to get a true grasp of a reliever’s true ability.
So far we’ve seen Coke toss up two stinkers and one brief but stellar performance (striking out the only two batters he faced) after dominating Spring Training. That’s far too small a sample to make a reasonable judgment. I liked what I saw from him in Spring Training, and clearly the Yankees did, so it’s best to let this one continue to play out, withholding judgment until Coke gets a few more appearances under his belt. After all, as Pinto notes, Phil might just have been the victim of insanely poor luck: “My problem is that the more a manager goes to the pen, the more likely he is to bring in someone having an off day.”
In reviewing the first six games, there doesn’t appear to be any evidence to counter the preseason notion that the Yanks bullpen is a strength. They’ve allowed eight runs in 17 innings this season, but the bulk came in just two of their six games (there was that one throw-away run in the ninth of a KC blowout). So in two thirds of their games the bullpen has turned in a scoreless performance (caveat added). Of course, this isn’t evidence in itself that they are and will be a strength for the team. It does, however, help strengthen the preseason hypothesis, even if two bad performances stand out.
As the title says, no team will have a bullpen ERA of 0.00. Even Toronto, with their 2.94 team bullpen ERA, allowed 148 runs in 2008. Again, this is because of the inherent volatility of relievers. There’s still a chance that Phil Coke does, in fact, stink and that the Yanks need to replace him. Thankfully, they have a slew of live arms in the minors waiting for a chance. That’s the sign of a quality bullpen.
AL East roundup: 4/6/09 through 4/12/09
Posted by: | CommentsIn an effort to keep our readers up to date with our most direct rivals, RAB has gotten together with a number of AL East bloggers to produce a weekly AL East roundup. Every Monday you’ll get a capsule of each division rival’s past week. It’s a basic summary of the week’s happenings, followed by team record, injuries, and a look at the week to come. If you’ve got some free time, be sure to check out the blogs we’ve partnered with. They’re passionate fans of their respective teams and provide excellent coverage.
Boston Red Sox – Surviving Grady
Tough going out of the gate for the Sox, dropping 2 of 3 to the Rays at Fenway to kick off the season, then hopping a flight to the left coast where they dropped another 2 of 3 to the Angels. Hey, it’s only the first week, but a couple things have us concerned: After Josh Beckett’s stellar performance in the season opener, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Timmy Wakefield struggled. Brad Penny didn’t fare much better in his Sox debut against Anaheim, but was saved by some timely offense. Speaking of hitting, the team’s first full season of Life After Manny may be tougher than we’d imagined; through the first six games, the team is averaging just 3.4 runs per game, and some of the big guns we’re counting on — Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, JD Drew and Mike Lowell — are a wretched 10-for-65 combined.
On the bright side, Youk is tearing it up at .526, and Rocco Baldelli has been a pleasant surprise thus far, legging out a key hit in Saturday’s game against Anaheim and flashing some pretty imrpessive leather in the field. This week it’s on to Oakland for three games, then back home for Baltimore. Things should be getting better fast. Or so I pray to the Gods of Baseball.
Week’s record: 2-4
Season record: 2-4
Injuries: None
This week: Mon – Wed @ Oakland; Fri – Sun BALTIMORE
BA on Hughes & Kennedy
Posted by: | CommentsKary Booher at Baseball America checked in on Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy following their season debuts with Triple-A Scranton over the weekend. Hughes struggled early with the fastball, but overcame it later and also worked on his change. Kennedy outdueled Carlos Carrasco, the Phil’s top pitching prospect, and showcased the improvement he made on his curveball during his winter ball stint. Even with the Yanks’ greatly improved rotation, I’m willing to bet these two get at least fifteen big league starts between them.
Joba through the eyes of Pitch f/x
Posted by: | CommentsBefore Joe Girardi managed to grab defeat from the jaws of victory with his bullpen moves, Joba Chamberlain pitched well in his first start of the year, allowing just one earned run in six innings. He threw only 88 pitches because he hadn’t gone beyond the 75 pitch plateau during Spring Training, and predictably worked off his fastball. Here’s the breakdown:
Fan Confidence Poll: April 13th, 2009
Posted by: | CommentsThe season kicked off last week in inauspicious fashion, even though the Yankees lowered their Opening Day payroll from 2008. CC Sabathia and Chien-Ming Wang fired clunkers in the first two games of the season, and there was much concern over Sabathia’s use of a heading pad. Thankfully the march to 0-162 was halted by AJ Burnett and a scorching hot Nick Swisher in the third game of the year, and Andy Pettitte followed by dominating the Royals the next day. Sabathia rebounded in a big way in his second start, firing nearly eight innings of shutout ball. Down in the minors, some of the Yanks top young pitching prospects had strong season debuts, none better than Ian Kennedy.
Joe Girardi overmanaged the way out of a sweep of the Royals yesterday, and Mark Teixeira has missed two straight games with a sore wrist. Everyone is concerned, but I’m hopeful the Yanks are just playing it safe early in the season. Let’s not even mention Cody Ransom’s struggles. Poor guy. At least Alex Rodriguez is closer to returning.
Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. Long time RABer Bob Stone was kind enough to put together a Fan Confidence Graph which you’ll be able to view anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks to Bob and thanks in advance for voting.
Yankees Game 6 WPA
Posted by: | Comments
What is this nerdy graph?
Today, goat is spelled C-O-K-E. His -.684 WPA is among the worst I’ve seen since starting to follow the stat in 2006. The worst part is, as Ben noted earlier, is that Coke probably shouldn’t have been in the game at all. Joe Girardi is not Tony LaRussa, nor should we want him to emulate the second-longest-tenured manager in the majors. Not that LaRussa’s unique bullpen strategies aren’t good; it’s that they should stay just that–unique.
Like all games, it takes a team effort to lose and this one wasn’t all on Phil Coke. Nick Swisher‘s error in the fourth cost the team plenty. Not only did it put KC up 2-1, but it led to John Buck’s run-scoring single. The error was -.125 WPA and the Buck single was -.101, so that’s -.226. Gardner’s double play in the sixth cost the team -.107, and Melky’s two DPs added up to -.160.
Most surprisingly, Joba’s WPA was in the negative, despite his leaving the game with a lead — and that he only allowed one earned run. But because of the way WPA scores these things, apparently the Swisher error was actually charged to Joba. Again, if the WPA spreadsheet worked on my Excel for Mac, I would have scored that as a negative for Swisher and not Joba, leaving Joba with a .050 WPA for the game and Swisher with -.137. The subsequent Buck single was all Joba, whether he should have been out of the inning or not.
Yes, this was a tough game to stomach — always is when victory is in sight and it never comes. However, as we like to say, it’s just one game of 162. There are still 156 games in which the Yanks can steal a victory in the manner the Royals did today. If they do that a couple times and manage to hold their leads, they’ll be in good shape. For the good teams, these things have a tendency to even out.
Cold Cody
Posted by: | CommentsThere’s no denying that Cody Ransom is having a terrible start to the 2009 season. With A-Rod‘s ramping up his rehab tomorrow, Ransom’s days on the Yanks are mostly numbered, but let’s take a quick look at how he’s doing. Ransom is 1 for 20 with 7 strike outs. So on balls hit in play, Ransom is just 1 for 13. That’s a BABIP of .077.
So while Ransom has been admittedly awful at the plate, he’s been rather unlucky too. If his BABIP were around .300 — generally the league average — he’d be hitting .200 on the season. While hardly stellar, that’s significantly better than .050. Hopefully, Ransom’s luck will turn around, and he can be even semi-useful until A-Rod returns. Six games in though, he’s been about as bad as Yankee fans feared, and those seven strike outs aren’t helping the cause.
Just 21 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.
