Archive for April, 2009
Debating Hughes as a reliever
Posted by: | CommentsThe Yanks’ bullpen has been on everyone’s mind lately. After all, as Joe discussed yesterday, it’s been terrible in the early going, and everyone wants to fix it. How is a matter of debate.
So far, Brian Cashman has gotten slammed for his bullpen construction in every which way. They have no long-man; they have no Joba-style set-up man; they have lefty specialists who can’t lefties out; they have a bunch of no-name middle relievers who can’t get anyone out. It’s just been one big mess in 20 games. Never mind the fact that these same bunch of no-names had some pretty stellar numbers last year.
While the Yanks’ Front Office maintaining an even keel, a lot of commentators are using this opportunity coupled with Joba’s less-than-stellar start to bring up that good ol’ Joba-to-the-pen argument. Yesterday, though, I saw an interesting twist on it. David Pinto, riffing off a John Harper column that won’t get any RAB-endorsed traffic, suggests putting Phil Hughes in the bullpen. He writes:
Harper is the latest to bring up Joba back to the pen again, this time, because Phil Hughes might be ready to start in the majors. Why not move Phil to the pen, instead? Given that the Yankees seem to need a long man once every time through the rotation, so why not give Hughes that job? That way, he can work his way into the majors, spot start for injuries, and if Bruney can’t pitch for a while, he can be a two-inning setup man.
I don’t like it. I don’t like the idea of taking a 22-year-old starter and turning him into a glorified mop up-cum-setup man. I don’t like the unpredictability, and as I’ve discussed in the Joba debate, I don’t like squandered an asset in a low leverage role.
First, let’s look at Hughes’ age. Phil needs to build up arm strength and stamina. The Yankees believe that Hughes, just 22, will factor into their future rotation plans, and last night, Hughes did nothing to dispel that notion. Limiting him to a few innings’ worth of long relief every few days won’t help him prepare to be a starter.
Second, Pinto’s suggestion relies on what I hope is a faulty premise. So far, the Yankees have needed a long man at least once — and often more than once — per five-day period, but the team can’t plan for the future working under that assumption. What happens then when A.J. and CC and Andy and Joba and Chien-Ming Wang are firing on all cylinders? The Yanks would either be left with a very well-rested and underused Phil Hughes or the team would be using Hughes in a mop-up role. That’s why they have Brett Tomko toiling away at AAA; it’s not a role suited for your top pitching prospect.
Pinto’s idea here then is to move Hughes into a two-inning setup role if Brian Bruney can’t return from his current injury. Outside of the differences between starting and relieving, I think a move like that would push Hughes into a role that doesn’t help him progress. Sure, he’d be getting Major League innings, but he’d be getting those innings in bits and spurts.
In the end, we want to see prospects contribute at the Major League level, but a pitcher’s value is in starting. Any pitcher — especially young ones with live arms — should be given all the chances they need to cut as a stater and only then do they move into a less valuable role. It’s the same debate we have with Joba, and it’s one that we shouldn’t even start concerning Phil Hughes.
Yanks find the other end of a blowout, down Tigers 11-0
Posted by: | CommentsThe Yankees didn’t just end their losing streak last night. They pulverized it, and then gave it a purple nurple for good measure. The 10-run seventh was just what the team needed, and it was more than enough to trounce the Tigers 11-0. Things looked grim for the offense in the early going, but they grinded it out* against Edwin Jackson and did what they do best, getting to the weak Tigers bullpen by the seventh. It was all over from there.
*It sounds better than “ground it out.”
While the crooked number in the seventh looks pretty, the story of the night was Phil Hughes. The Yanks needed a good start from their former No. 1 prospect, and he came through with six innings of shutout ball, allowing just two hits and two walks. It was more than the team could have asked for. Hughes looked sharp all night, striking out six along the way. He threw 58 of his 99 pitches for strikes, 59 percent, a bit below the ideal number (66%). That led to a higher pitch per inning total, 16.5, than he’d like. But he’ll have at least a few more starts to work out those kinks.
Hughes mixed his pitches well, throwing what looked like three fastballs — a four-seamer, a two-seamer, and his cutter. Gameday logged almost all his fastballs as two-seamers, but also had him 93 to 94 on many of them, especially in the early innings. Before even seeing the Gameday I thought they were four-seamers and the 88-mph ones were either two-seamers or cutters, depending on how they broke. It looks like Hughes is back up to advertised velocity. His curve was on for the most part, and it was deadly when he got ahead in the count. If he can improve on his efficiency over his next few starts, the Yanks just might realize the potential of Philip J. Hughes.
Through six the results looked like the same old Yankees. They failed to score with runners in scoring position in the third, fourth, and six. In the latest they squandered a Hideki Matsui triple — a sign of the apocalypse if I’ve interpreted my scripture correctly. But while they were futile with RISP, they slowly chipped away at Edwin Jackson, forcing him to throw 117 pitches in six innings and forcing the Tigers to go to the bullpen. The Yanks saw 32 pitches in the fourth, including Robinson Cano‘s 12-ptich at bat which featured six two-strike fouls. Even in the fifth, when the Yanks went down 1-2-3, they managed to see 14 pitches. It all added up, and it exposed a weak Tigers bullpen.
And then there’s the seventh. Oh how sweet was the seventh. After opening the frame with a strike, the Tigers’ 2008 No. 1 pick Ryan Perry had trouble finding the plate. It’s not a good day when you walk Melky Cabrera on four pitches. With runners on first and second with none out Girardi decided to nix the double play and have Molina sacrifice. That’s not normally a good move with Ramiro Pena to follow, but Jorge Posada toughed out his sore hammy and hit a strange sac fly/error combination to plate two runs. He looked pretty bad in the at bat, and the ball should have been caught, but it plated runs and that’s what the Yanks needed. Little did they know it was only a prelude to a drubbing.
In fact, let’s relive the seventh via the play-by-play:
That’s two Melky Cabrera walks, two appearances on base for Nick Swisher, and, of course one grand slam by Jose Molina, an absolute bomb to left-center. Like Varitek on Saturday, Molina cheated fastball and it paid off. While the Tek homer still hurts a bit, comparing him to Molina dulls the pain a bit.
With the win in hand we can now look forward to tomorrow night when Joba Chamberlain faces 20-year-old Rick Porcello. His full name: Fredrick Alfred Porcello. That is a fine sounding name. Hopefully he pitches like Ryan Perry.
P.S. Teixeira had better get a hit tomorrow, or he knows what’s going to be waiting for him at the Stadium on Thursday.
Montero’s two homers lead Tampa to win
Posted by: | CommentsIan Kennedy was in New York today to see the Yanks’ team doctor after feeling numbness in one of his fingers during his start last night. Guess it wasn’t a blister after all. That’s all I got at this time, hopefully he’s okay. Meanwhile, Alan Horne will start on Saturday. Not sure who it’ll be for yet.
Triple-A Scranton (6-0 loss to Lehigh Valley)
Doug Bernier, John Rodriguez, Eric Duncan & PJ Pilittere: all 0 for 3 – Bernier drew a walk & K’ed … J-Rod was hit by a pitch & K’ed … E-Dunc committed a fielding error at the hot corner … PJ K’ed
Todd Linden & Juan Miranda: both 1 for 4 – Linden doubled & K’ed twice … Miranda K’ed
Shelley Duncan: 2 for 4
Austin Jackson: 2 for 3, 1 K
Eric Hacker: 6 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 0 BB, 8 K, 1 Balk, 7-3 GB/FB – 65 of 102 pitches were strikes (63.7%) … gave up all 5 runs in the third, but other than that he was pretty good
JB Cox: 3 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 6-1 GB/FB - 30 of 43 pitches were strikes (69.8%)
Game 20 Spillover Thread II
Posted by: | CommentsThe Yankees have three runs. Who knew they could score so many?
Game 20: Hughes Returns
Posted by: | Comments
The last time we saw Phil Hughes, he took a no-decision in Toronto after throwing eight innings of two run ball. He returns to the big league team just over six months later, filling in for a horrifically ineffective Chien-Ming Wang. To make room for Hughes on the roster, the Yanks returned Steven Jackson to Triple-A Scranton. Jackson was with the team for eight games, but he didn’t do anything more than warm up in the bullpen a handful of times.
The team has been brutal whenever I’ve written the game thread (1-4, outscored 37-22), so I’m going to quit while I”m ahead. Here’s the lineup:
Jeter, SS
Damon, LF
Teixeira, 1B
Matsui, DH
Cano, 2B
Swisher, RF
Melky, CF - looks it look Gardner 18 games to lose his job
Molina, C
Pena, 3B - looks like it took Berroa 2 games to lose his
And on the mound, number sixty-five, Phil Hughes.
Notes: In case you missed it, A-Rod’s coming back a week earlier than expected. Thank Mo.
Photo Credit: Flickr user DJ Brian Eason
Heyman: Yanks push up A-Rod’s target return date
Posted by: | CommentsWhile the Yankees won’t officially confirm it yet, Jon Heyman reports that A-Rod will be back a week earlier than expected. The Yanks’ slugger underwent hip surgery on March 9, and while the Yanks originally pegged May 15 as his return date, Rodriguez has responded very well to treatment and rehab. He could begin a rehab assignment by the end of the week and would see Major League game action by the end of next week. It can’t come soon enough for a team in need of a big bat in the middle of their lineup.
Yanks halve prices on Legends Suite seats
Posted by: | CommentsAfter coming under fire from the media, Bud Selig, and the commission of Major League Soccer, the Yanks finally caved to reality and cut ticket prices on the Legends Suite seats today. The cut — around 50 percent for the top priced seats — is significant, and the team is hoping to fill seats that had been embarrassingly empty during the first home stand.
The Yankees have also implemented a whole slew of refund and complimentary ticket bonuses as part of this effort to solve a problem. After the jump is the full statement from Hal Steinbrenner (via YES blog), but first, a few thoughts of mine.
The Yankees priced the new stadium seemingly as a experiment in the open ticket market. Could a sports franchise sell an 81-game season ticket package at prices well beyond anything attempted in the sport? Baseball, after all, isn’t football with its very limited home season and demand that far outstrips supply. The Yanks tried to see if they could load up a ticket price with extras and access to fancy dining, fancy seats and fancy service.
In the 2009 economy, it didn’t work. When the Yanks set prices last summer, the team had no idea how the market fall would impact their targeted customers — New York City’s once-robust financial market. The team had no idea how the high prices would come to be viewed as part of the excess of an era behind us. Whether these seats would have sold in an up market is an experiment for another time.
In the end, the team was left with no choice. They had to lower the ticket prices or risk a summer’s worth of bad press. That they are also refunding previous buyers’ orders speaks volumes about this move. For the sake of an image, for the sake of fewer empty seats and more concession spending, the Yanks are making the right, but difficult, decision.
MLB aims to make its draft even more boring
Posted by: | CommentsI love the draft. It’s easily my most favorite baseball day of the year, and I’ve taken off from work during draft week the past few years just so I can soak it all in. Just a few years ago the thought of a televised draft was unthinkable, but the past two drafts have aired on ESPN (well, the first round anyway). As expected, the draft will shift over to the recently launched MLB Network this year, but there’s bad news. From Maury Brown’s The Biz of Baseball:
Major League Baseball announced today that the 2009 First-Year Player Draft will be held in Studio 42 at MLB Network in Secaucus, New Jersey. The Draft will begin live on MLB Network at 6:00 p.m. (EDT) on Tuesday, June 9th.
The 2009 First-Year Player Draft will expand from two days to three days, with the final two days being conducted via conference call from MLB headquarters in New York City. The first day will consist of the first 111 picks, including Round One, Compensation Round A, Round Two, Round Three and Compensation Round B. On Wednesday, June 10th, the Draft will resume in the fourth round at 12:00 p.m. (EDT) and will be tentatively scheduled to go through the 30th round. The Draft will conclude on Thursday, June 11th, which is set to cover the 31st-50th rounds.
The draft is long enough as it is, but now they’re adding a third day? And they’re going to start it at 6pm?!?! As much as I love the draft, it gets boring after a while. Once you go beyond the first five or six rounds, almost all of the players are complete unknowns and frankly will never see a big league roster. It’s hard to maintain that enthusiasm after the first few rounds, and dragging this thing out even more will make it even worse.
The baseball draft isn’t the NFL draft or even the NBA draft. These players are not recognizable because amateur baseball doesn’t receive nearly the same amount of media coverage as it’s football and basketball counterparts. Matt Stafford is infinitely more well known than Stephen Strasburg despite his historical greatness. It’s just the way it is. Teams aren’t drafting for need and the vast majority of players will have zero immediate impact. There’s just no reason for the average fan to worry about who their team takes with it’s top two or five or ten picks.
I applaud MLB’s efforts to increase interest in it’s first year player draft, but baseball’s amateur draft just isn’t made for TV. I miss my rapid fire, ten seconds between picks conference call.
Does the bullpen need adjusting?
Posted by: | CommentsSucka Got No Juice leads off today’s column with a bit on the Yankees bullpen. As is typical of national columnists, and even some in New York, Rosenthal leads with the Joba issue. Thankfully, it includes a quote from Cashman, in which he points out the obvious: “But right now, [Chamberlain] is needed even more in the rotation than ever.” With Chien-Ming Wang out indefinitely, Cashman is certainly right. With the next best options being Alfredo Aceves (5.74 ERA despite decent peripherals in AAA) and Ian Kennedy, it seems that in terms of both long-term development and immediate team need, Joba’s optimal role is as a starter.
Yet this leaves an enormous question mark in the bullpen. With Brian Bruney on the 15-day DL and with many of the mainstays struggling, the Yanks could use some reinforcements. They’ve got an immediate band-aid in the forms of Mark Melancon and David Robertson, but there still remains the collective issues of Edwar Ramirez, Jose Veras, Damaso Marte, and to a lesser extent Phil Coke. So what are the Yankees going to do to patch things up? Rosenthal has the word from a Yanks official:
“Nobody wants to hear it, but you just have to let ‘em pitch.”
It’s not easy to stick with that mindset amid a few bullpen blowups and a four-game losing streak, but it appears that’s what the Yankees will do. As Cashman says, the bullpen is “talented and gifted and probably undersold.” I’d mostly agree with that, though that doesn’t mean that every underperforming reliever will right himself. It means that the Yanks have enough flexibility to ouster the truly bad and bring in fresh arms.
The problem with evaluating the bullpen right now is that there is almost no sample to draw from. Jon Albaladejo and Jose Veras lead the team in reliever innings pitched, and they only have 10 each (Alb has 10.1). How can we judge the effectiveness of a pitcher based on a measly 10 innings? We can say that he hasn’t pitched well to this point, but to project the season based on 10 innings is mostly pointless. Yes, Veras could maintain his 6.30 ERA through 70 innings this year, but it won’t be because of what he demonstrated in his first 10 innings.
Veras has one outlier appearance, which came during the home opener. I’m wary of removing this outliers, because to remove them is to imply that they don’t matter. Outliers do occur, so they do matter. Still, without that one stinker of an appearance, Veras’s ERA is down to 3.60. We could try to even things out and take out his positive outlier, the 3.1-inning, no-hit performance against Oakland, but then we’re working with a sample of 6.2 innings, hardly worth analyzing (though his ERA would be a still-terrible 5.80).
More than justifying Veras’s performance so far, I hope the preceding paragraph illustrates the randomness of small samples. We have his actual ERA (6.30), his ERA with his outlying terrible appearance removed (3.60) and his ERA with his outlying terrible and outlying appearance removed (5.80). All this drawn from a measly 10 innings. Veras’s next 10 could be just like that, or they could be completely different — or he could go on a tear like he did from June 5 through July 5 last year, in which he pitched 17.1 innings and allowed one earned run. This is just the nature of most relief pitchers.
Remember, too, that not all is lost because the bullpen had a poor April. Damaso has a long track record of success and should turn it around. Bruney should be back in a few weeks. Melancon could give the Yanks another late-inning setup man. Veras and Edwar could both go on tears like they did last year. The Yanks bullpen could easily follow up a horrible month in April with a stellar May. And just as April isn’t an indicator for the next five months, May will not be an indicator for the next four — unless it’s equally as terrible, and then we can start to wonder, even though the sample will still be small.
As a final thought experiment, imagine the bullpen locks down the rest of the month without allowing a run. With Hughes, Joba, and A.J. set to go over the next three games, let’s figure the bullpen gets eight innings (hopefully that’s a high estimate). That would give them 72 innings with 46 earned runs, or a 5.75 ERA. Last year Boston’s bullpen had a 5.23 ERA in April, and they recovered just fine, keeping the bullpen ERA below 4.00 for every month except September. The Yanks could certainly do the same this year, especially once their starters go deeper into games.
Just 21 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.
