So close. So close.
By
Five-point-three percent. Those were the Red Sox odds of winning the game when Jason Bay stepped to the plate last night. If WPA were more advanced and took the pitcher and batter into play, I’m fairly certain that it would have been a tick lower. We all know what happened, so it’s pointless to belabor the point.
The homer was clearly the biggest WPA swing of the game, followed closely by the walk-off. Let’s look at some of the other big WPA swings:
Melky, -22.8%, double play in the top of the 11th, men on 1st and 2nd with one out.
Teixeira, -15.3%, strikeout in the top of the 10th, 2nd and 3rd with two out.
Jeter, 10.4%, double to lead off the top of the 7th
Ransom, 17%, RBI double to tie the game in the 4th.
So the Yanks had their share of ups and downs, but so did the Red Sox:
Nick Green, 11%, RBI single to tie the game in the bottom of the 6th.
J.D. Drew, -17.1%, double play to end the 5th, 1st and 3rd with one out.
Jacoby Ellsbury, -19.2%, double play to end the 4th, bases loaded with one out.
While Joba’s stuff didn’t overwhelm the Sox hitters, his ability (or was it luck?) to induce a grounder and get the double play absolutely devastated them. He might have lasted only 5.2 innings, but the night could have been a whole ton worse for Joba Chamberlain. Hopefully he can continue to use that two-seamer with guys on base. Then again, the further hope is that he just doesn’t put that many men on base in the first place.
In a game with this many dramatic swings, it starts to feel like the outcome is almost random. You can pick through any of the above swings, plus the two home runs, and see infinite possibilities for alternatives. Unfortunately for the Yanks, they’re stuck with the iteration of history we saw last night. Thankfully, they probably won’t turn out like that all the time.
Do you enjoy torturing us poor souls?
Did the 0 outs bases loaded 0 runs inning effect the WPA any way?
Not a whole ton. Cano came to the plate with the Yanks having like a 96.5 percent chance of winning the game, and left the inning with like a 90 percent chance, so it wasn’t one of the bigger swings. Teams up by two runs heading into the bottom of the ninth tend to win the game, so no, it didn’t have nearly as big a swing as the plays mentioned above.
anyone wanna play the numbers game for Melancon? the options are 21, 28, 39. He wore 41 in the minors and 26 in college, so my guess would be 28. and just for fun, he will choose 21.
39.
seconded.
Pays Mariano off, takes 42.
Couldn’t even if he tried. Its officially retired by MLB and Mo only gets to wear it because it was grandfathered in.
I say 6
I bet Nick Swisher wears 42 at least once this year…
Obviously 21 is out of the equation. I’d say 28, it’s cooler than 39.
Triple digits.
We all know what happened the last time someone chose 21…I’ll take 28. Two completely disparate numbers though, 39 and 26. You really can’t discern what he’ll take. Besides, someone is going to give him a number anyway so the point is a little moot. Joba was given 62, he didn’t ask for it. He only kept it because its a multiple of 8.
62 isn’t a multiple of 8,. It adds up to 8, but being a multiple of 8 would indicate being divisible by 8, and 62 can’t be divisible by 8 since 64 is.
Joba was given 62, he didn’t ask for it. He only kept it because its a multiple of 8.
epic math fail
hmm Hughes wore 65 in the minors, and still wearing it right now. Jordan Zimmerman, Nats prospect wore 27 in college and minors, and he’s wearing 27 right now in the majors. The list of “who wore what in college and still wearing it in the majors” continues on.
You think people would boo Melancon if he wore 21? I dont know but I think maybe case LaTroy was a FA it rubbed the people who boo’d the wrong way moreso than if this young hot talent took it.
There were a few factor sin LaTroy’s hard time with the number. His first appearance was horrible, the MSM jumped on the number controversy and Paulie remained silent on the entire affair.
Joba did ask for 62, it has something to do with his best friend who died when they were kids.
This post was torture
Torture is watching Girardi handle the bullpen this year. Wasn’t it a strength of his last year?
Ugh.. So you didn’t want Mo in there?
It was more of a broad observation. I didn’t want Rivera in there for the four out save but its something I can live with I guess. It confused me that he pulled Albie with an 0-1 count.
Perhaps that was just so Mo could finish his warmup ritual. I really have no issue with how Girardi handled the pen yesterday. With Bruney out and with Veras needing another day off (and yes, I do think he needed it), his options were limited.
actually molina missed a sign, it was supposed to be a pitch-out.
Listen, it was a tough loss, but they have 17 more games against Boston this year, as well as 146 games left until the season is over.
Plenty of time, as long as everyone rounds into form.
I, for one, am really looking forward to the retuALL GLORY TO THE HYPNOTOAD
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiVYjRbZMe0
18 more games against Boston this year. It’s one of those 19-game years.
Effin’ unbalanced schedule.
I am not a fan, either. I loved the days when they’d play the league evenly. It seems you’d get a much better sample that way, no? If you’re concentrating the schedule by division, you’re creating an inferior indicator of true team ability. Spread that out a bit more randomly and I think you’ll see the teams with the best regular season records winning the World Series with more regularity.
Dump interleague. It’s played.
…it HAS to be an odd number…if it were even, we could end up with one of those shiny happy socialist 8-8 records. somebody has to lose.
I’m guessing Cano and Melky never heard of hitting sac flies.
I would really love for an unclutch a-rod home run in the first inning.
Canó came up twice with the bases chucked and the first time the only thing that kept that ball from going to the gap was a diving stop by Jason Bay.
He can’t be blamed for that.
Although I gotta hand it to Boston, they had several defensive plays that saved them.
In due time my friend, in due time.
Or if he had padded the win in the 9th, would have worked.
Ransom 60 day & Humberto DFA.
Sanchez was DFA’d
hopefully no one claims him since he’s still injured and all.
Nope, PeteAbe says he was flat-out released.
damn, how his stock has fallen, good news on Bruney, nothing apparently major.
Sanchez was released not DFA’d
IIRC, when a player is DFA’d, he can be traded, released or send to the minors. Is DFAing possible when a player is not on the 25 man roster?
It has to do with the 40 man roster I believe, so yes.
I guess you’re right, but I’m never sure with the rules on baseball transactions. I guess it wouldn’t matter anyway, Humberto seems like a lost cause.
“Damon hasn’t had an MRI yet but they’re convinced his tear is serious and so he’s on the 60.”
Really Pete Abe? Really?
I had a mini heart attack.
Pete Abe:
Peteabe also said- “Damon hasn’t had an MRI yet but they’re convinced his tear is serious and so he’s on the 60.”
I’m going to assume he meant Ransom?
Yeah its the only logical explanation.
damn two minutes too late
lol. Me win you lose!
Apparently Bruney’s injury is muscular and not related to ligaments and with any luck he’ll be fine in a week.
Pretty much the best case scanrio
I wasn’t concerned. They have enough depth in the pen for this to be a blessing in disguise if Robertson and Melancon are used properly and pitch well.
3B would be less of a problem if Pena started, which he should have been doing anyway.
please have mercy on Berrora’s defense.
Apparently Angel’s agent is an RAB reader…..
j/k
Seriously though, are you related?
hell no. i’m Italian/Asian.
Haha yeah I was kidding. It’s not every day someone gets defensive about Mr. Berroa, but then again, whaddya expect with these Asian-Italians? (Kidding again- that’s a pretty sweet mix)
Clearly, Bruney going down and his 2 bad starts (IN A ROW!) only mean one thing:
JOBBA NEEDS TO BE TEH 8TH INNING GUY!!!!1!111!!!
When I saw that Damon quote I about shit myself.
You and me both, kid.
Nothing surprises me anymore with this team, it just seems that it happens all at once
Did anybody else get ticked off by the SportsCenter cast going nuts while recapping this game?? I mean they were literally screaming about their beloved RedSox…It was way too much for me after that game
I used to watch ESPN like non-stop. What you said pretty much sums up why I now only watch for live games. I heard Berthume (sp?), admit to being a Red Sox fan on air- that was it for me. Just watch MLB Network.
I could handle Berthiume admitting to being a Sox fan if someone admitted to being a Yankee fan.
I bet on the ESPN application there’s somewhere where it asks about your favorite teams. I also bet that if you write “Yankees,” the application gets sent straight to the trash bin.
Was hopin to see Melancon in action this aft. Ah well, tomorrow perhaps.