2009 Blue Jays reminiscent of recent AL East team

Manny's story raises more PED questions
Lonn Trost opens mouth, inserts foot

The story of the young 2009 season has been the Toronto Blue Jays. With the powerhouse Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees in the division most pundits wrote off the Jays chances this season — and that was before they sustained a number of pitching injuries, including the loss of Jesse Litsch, who started the season second to Roy Halladay in the rotation. Yet the Jays have soared out of the gates and on May 12 lead the AL East with a 22-12 record. The question everyone now asks is, are they for real?

ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick thinks that the Jays could continue their winning ways. He notes their impressive win totals over the past year (impressive in relation to the competition), including their record since Cito Gaston took over as manager last year. They also have a number of pitchers out with injuries, and when they return the team could have the favorable problem of not having enough innings for everyone. Combine this with a league-leading offense, and Crasnick believes the Jays could have some sustainable success.

The 2009 Blue Jays, for me, conjure up memories of 2005. At some point around now-ish that year I had a conversation with a friend who thought the Orioles could be for real. That scared him, since the Yankees were off to a putrid start (they would soon be resurrected by Tino Martinez, however). I told him not to worry, that the Orioles would come back to earth. That they did, finishing the season 74-88, fourth place in the AL East.

On May 12, 2005, the Orioles had a record of 22-12.

On May 12, 2009, the Blue Jays have a record of 22-12.

This isn’t to say the Jays will collapse in a similar manner. They have a good team, after all, and they could be even better once they get some of their injured pitchers back. However, there are certain trends that, like the Orioles in 05, the Jays will not be able to maintain. We can start with the Jays offense, which has scored 204 runs and is the most in the majors by 20 runs. This would extrapolate to 972 runs over 162 games, which is just not likely to play out in reality. They’ll end 2008 scoring fewer than six runs per game. Similarly, the Orioles were averaging 5.4 runs per game in 2005, but ended having scored just 4.5 per game.

Plenty can happen between now and the end of the season, so to proclaim the Blue Jays “for real” at this point is a bit absurd. That’s not to say that they’re not. They have a good collection of players who are all doing rather well right now, and if they can sustain that and take advantage of returning pitchers, they could turn the AL East into an enormous dogfight. Yet they still haven’t done it against the powerhouses in the division. Tonight marks the Jays’ first game against the Yanks, and they have yet to play the Sox and Rays. By May 12, 2005, the Orioles were already 5-1 against the Yanks and 2-2 against Boston, 16-6 against the whole AL East.

Remember, too, that even at the end of May 2005 the Orioles were still atop the division, by three games, and the Yanks were in fourth place. In September, the Yanks had claimed yet another AL East crown. Also, the Orioles were still at 43-35 on June 30, 3.5 games ahead of the Yanks. It wasn’t until the end of July that the Yanks had surged ahead. Baltimore, by the way, won eight games the entire month of July. So even if the Jays do keep up this torrid pace for a little longer, it’ll really take an entire season to prove that they’re for real.

Are the 2009 Blue Jays a better team than the 2005 Orioles on paper? I think so. That’s what separates these two cases. Even when they’re battered the 2009 Blue Jays pitching looks better than that of the 2005 O’s. This is why the league needs to take the Jays seriously. However, given what we’ve learned about them from the past few years, their early-season surge could very well play out similarly to the Orioles in 2005.

When hearing how awesome a team is on paper, people often reply by noting the obvious, that the game is played on the field and that results are what matter. That’s obviously true, but that paper can catch up to you. Teams can play way over their heads for considerable portions of the season, just like others can play like crap for a month and a half before hitting the thrusters. Baseball plays a 162-game schedule so most of these flukes can run their course and the best teams can come out on top. It’s the advantage of a large sample. Let’s not forget that when evaluating the Yankees — and the Blue Jays — right now.

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Manny's story raises more PED questions
Lonn Trost opens mouth, inserts foot
  • JobaWockeeZ

    The Jays did not play the Red Sox, Rays and the Yankees yet right? I think it’s too early to tell if they are legit or if its a fluke. We’ll have to wait and see.

    • Joe R

      Right. It’s unlikely their pitching will hold up. Is Tallet a RP turned SP?

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Joseph Pawlikowski

      I did say that in the article.

  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

    The Jays pitching staff has allowed a collective .292 BABIP, tied with the A’s for the second lowest in baseball. (The Yankees .313 is tied for #25th.) Their E-F of -0.32 is the fourth largest negative gap.

    However, their team WHIP of 1.24 is the best in baseball, however, and their HR/9 of 0.83 is second best, their BB/9 of 2.91 is sixth best and their K/9 of 7.37 is seventh best.

    Meaning, so far, their pitching staff has been the best of both words: Lucky AND good.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      Heh, scratch that, nevermind, EPIC FAIL, I was looking at… last year’s numbers.

      IGNORE EVERYTHING. YOU SAW NOTHING. I WAS NEVER HERE.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        Actual 2009 Blue Jay team pitching stats:

        K/9: 6.95 (14th)
        BB/9: 3.16 (2nd)
        K/BB: 2.20 (4th)
        HR/9: 1.04 (18th)
        WHIP: 1.29 (t-2nd)
        BAA: .250 (6th)
        BABIP: .287 (5th)
        ERA: 4.11 (10th)
        FIP: 4.34 (11th)
        E-F: -0.23 (9th)

  • Jake K

    Man, this division is fucking stacked.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      True.

      I must admit, I’m a little worried about the Orioles replacing Felix Pie, Gregg Zaun, Mark Hendrickson, Adam Eaton, and Brad Bergesen with Nolan Reimold, Matt Wieters, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, and Brian Matusz.

      • Lanny

        Because every prospect turns out to be a decent major leaguer. Fail.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          Heh, only you could make a FAIL comment and have that comment be an epic FAIL itself.

  • ChrisS

    In any event, if I had to draft a complete OF, I’d much rather have the ’09 Jays (Snider-21/Wells-30/Rios-28) than the ’05 Orioles (Bigbie-27/Matos-26/Sosa-36). The only bright spot on that O’s lineup was Brian Roberts. Meanwhile, it’s more than likely that the Jay’s .850+ OPS club will lose most or all of its members by June.

  • Andy In Sunny Daytona

    Nope. The Jays are real. They will finish 105-57.

    • thurdonpaul

      wow , thats a lot of wins

  • JP

    Doesn’t matter how good they “really” are–if Halladay doesn’t stay healthy all year or hits a bad patch, they won’t threaten. He’s due for a slump, isnt’ he? Maybe he’s a HOF level pitcher and can maintain this extremely high level of performance and health for year after year. But most pitchers today can’t do that. Seems to me it’s been a while since Halladay was either hurt or otherwise struggling.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      It doesn’t really work that way.

      Being healthy for a long time doesn’t mean you’re “due” to get injured.

      • JP

        No? If you’re logging lots of innings it does.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          No, if you’re logging lots of innings it means you may be wearing your arm out.

          It still doesn’t mean you’re “due” in any sense. The correlation is not that strong.

          • JP

            You’re hung up on the word “due.” Guys who pitch lots of innings are more likely to be injured than those who don’t. That’s a fact.

            No, there’s no highly predictive formula behind it, and no, not every pitcher will breakdown, or breakdown at the same work level as every other.

            But the trend exists, and it’s a fact.

            I wasn’t making a quantitative statement. A guy at the very tip top of his game, pitching regularly at a high level for a long time, in today’s game, is a rarity. It would not come as a surprise for Halladay to go down with injury, or to hit a rough patch and pitch at a more average level for a while.

        • Mattingly’s Love Child

          Does that mean CC or Johan or Greinke is due to get injured?

          No it doesn’t.

          There are plenty of pitchers who have been exceptionally durable for long periods of time. The ones who pitch at Hallday’s level and are durable end up in the Hall of Fame. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that if Halladay keeps up what he’s been doing for another 5 years (say averaging 15wins/220+innings/sub3.50era) he could be in the picture for being in the Hall.

        • thurdonpaul

          halladay is a stud

    • Tom Zig

      What’s your last name? ……Ricciardi?

      • Lanny

        So, basically every pitcher is going to get injured at some point. Astute.

  • Mr. Rodriguez

    They remind me of the neighboring U.S Buffalo Bills of 2008-2009.
    They start out 4-0 and 5-1 before facing any AFC East opponents. After the short NFL season they end up 7-9. This team has talent, but in the end I just think they will fall to better competition.

  • http://www.puristbleedspinstripes.com Aunt Becca-Optimist Prime

    The thing about the Jays is that NO ONE saw this coming.

    At least no one that lives outside of Ontario. BP saw the Rays in ’08 (and it wasn’t that hard to see), but no one saw the Jays this year.

    I don’t know if they’re for real or not but they are certainly making the most of their opportunity.

  • J.R.

    And some of these “flukes” happen at the right time. Remember the Rockies winning almost 30 games in a row the last month?

    That fluke meant an NL Championship

    • Mr. Rodriguez

      ya, that was on of the worst world series of all time for me as a yankee fan.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        Really?

        I personally agonized more over the two recent series we were in and lost more than the 2007 World Series that we didn’t play in at all.

        Eh, to each his own (misery).

        • Mr. Rodriguez

          Well i’d rather have the yanks at least play in the world series instead of watch the sox sweep an average team is what i meant bro

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

            Yeah, I gotcha.

            I guess not making the Series by losing to those pesky Cleveland Stereotypes in ’07 was more painful for me than the aftereffect of watching some other team win a series that we could have won (had we made it there.)

            But, again, to each his own.

            • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

              I remember being just incredibly bummed from ’05-’07 after the ALDS losses. ’04 was just a daze.

              • thurdonpaul

                yeah ,04 still sucks,BIG time

    • http://www.puristbleedspinstripes.com Aunt Becca-Optimist Prime

      I still can’t believe they did that.

  • Evan

    I wouldn’t mind a near 30 game winning streak right about now.

    • jsbrendog

      ill take a 20-er

      • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

        I’ll take a five spot.

        • Mattingly’s Love Child

          Wow, you’re greedy eh?!

          • Lanny

            Can we get 2 first?

  • http://www.puristbleedspinstripes.com Aunt Becca-Optimist Prime

    Off topic, I know, but Jeter was scratched from today’s line up and Swisher already sitting.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      Damnit, Rebecca, if you keep stealing the thunder of the RAB game thread with your early word of the lineup, so help me, Ben’s gonna take your firstborn nephew from you.

      (Ben’s the Jewish one, right? Good, then it fits the meme.)

      • http://www.puristbleedspinstripes.com Aunt Becca-Optimist Prime

        See, Ben can’t. Because my family’s Cohen. So technically we get to take the fb nephew from him.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaawwwwwwwwwwwww
          JEWWWWWWWWWWWWWS!

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Benjamin Kabak

        Ben is indeed the Jewish one.

        I for one like the Yankee lineup with Brett Gardner, Kevin Cash and Ramiro Peña. Low on talent; high on grit.

    • AJ

      He’s been scratched for an oblique pull. Is that going to keep him out for the series?

    • whozat

      Wait…just after a day off, they’re BOTH sitting down?

      Wow…this is pretty bad. I suggest the only way they take this one is if Tex, ARod or Matsui gets ahold of one after Gardner or Johnny slaps a single the other way and AJ pitches 7 innings of 1-run ball or better.

      • http://www.puristbleedspinstripes.com Aunt Becca-Optimist Prime

        It’s not impossible.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        Maybe they both have oblique pulls… from the same thing…

        Hmmm…

  • yankeefan91 Arod fan

    Dammit Jeter has a starined oblique.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      Too much poontang

      • A-Rod is Still My Ninja

        Did Maxim come out with the latest Top 100 list? If not, then we can ask Jeter who’s on the list.

      • yankeefan91 Arod fan

        lol

  • yankeefan91 Arod fan

    strained

    • yankeefan91 Arod fan

      Ok now its a oblique pull.

  • BG90027

    I would have pegged the bluejays to end the year in 4th place and be slightly below or above .500. That still seems about right to me. Aaron Hill has a .940 OPS and Marco Scutaro has a .850 OPS. Are they going to stay that productive? Can Hallyday, Wells and Rolen all stay healthy? I’m gonna say no. Plus as others have said, they have yet to be tested against the best teams in the East.

    I think what has caused all the hype is how low the “experts” picked them. Its crazy how many commentators picked the O’s to finish above them given how awful the O’s pitching is. They will regress but they are still a much better team than the Orioles.

    • AJ

      I would bet good money Halladay stays healthy all year.

      • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

        +1

      • BG90027

        He might. I meant would you bet all three of those guys will stay healthy.

  • dkidd

    why doesn’t cito gaston get more credit?

    he won back to back world series and then couldn’t get a job

    • Lanny

      Let’s call it what it is. It’s because he’s black. Things haven’t changed much. You won’t see Randolph get a job for a long time now. And after Cooper and Washington get fired they won’t either. Good thing people keep hiring Dusty Baker to ruin young pitchers. Hello Edison and Cueto.

      • dkidd

        davey lopes is another example

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