May
15

BA’s Mock Draft V1.0

By

Baseball America posted the first of several Mock Drafts yesterday, though it’s hidden behind the subscriber wall. I will tell you this much: with the 29th overall pick they have the Yanks taking Cal center fielder Brett Jackson, who’s a supreme athlete but has questions about his bat. Surprisingly, they have both Matt Davidson and Jiovanni Mier dropping out of the first round. I’d much prefer either of those two to Jackson.

Categories : Asides, Draft

78 Comments»

  1. Since we can’t see it behind the wall, excerpt some of the other interesting things for us. Who does BA have the teams in the AL East taking? Can you give us those?

    Anybody you saw going way higher than you thought was appropriate?

  2. Mattingly's Love Child says:

    Well it is early for a mock draft (I really have no idea, I’m taking my Ps and Qs from Klaw that it is too early for a mock draft).

    I certainly hope the Yanks would just draft the best player available, which doesn’t seem like Jackson would be.

  3. Jack The Flipper says:

    Are the Yankees in on the Miguel Angel Sano sweepstakes ? He is a 16 yr old “so he says” Dominican shortstop prospect.

  4. Via TBC (out of 100):

    Power: 41
    Speed: 83
    Power: 46
    Patience: 80

  5. rbizzler says:

    Meh, color me unimpressed by that prediction. The reports on Mier and Davidson have been way more impressive than what I have seen about Jackson.

    Maybe they were confused and combined Brett and A-Jax to come up with their faux pick.

    • Doug says:

      yeah, especially curious as to why they have davidson out of the 1st. ESPN’s draft blog on Wednesday said this:

      “3B Matt Davidson went 2-for-3 with a double Tuesday, lifting his line to .548/.682/1.110 with eight home runs and a 23-6 BB/K ratio. Davidson is almost certain to go in Round 1, potentially before Arizona picks back-to-back at 16 and 17.”

  6. Yankee42 says:

    Sorry if this is off-subject….and not that it’s going to happen, but…if the Nats offered a trade for their first round pick (Strasburg) for Joba Chamberlain and possibly another prospect, would you make that deal in a heartbeat?

    If not, why?

    • Mattingly's Love Child says:

      Can’t trade draft picks. The CBA prohibits it.

      But I’m not sure if I’d make that trade.

      • Mattingly's Love Child says:

        Joba’s already in the majors and proven he can get big league hitters out. No he isn’t an ace yet, but he’s got the potential to be an ace. Strasburg has the potential to be an ace of aces, but at this point has only gotten mid-major baseball hitters out.

    • Mike Pop says:

      Lol.

    • jsbrendog says:

      only if we put strasburg in the pen

      • Whozat says:

        Bangwagon

      • Andy In Sunny Daytona says:

        Strasburg would only be the second hardest throwing reliever in baseball next to legendary Daniel Bard.

        I’m not sure if anyone saw Bard’s debut the other night, but I was told by an anonymous assistant GM that he was topping out at 113, his curveball broke so much that it broke the natural laws of physics.

        • Mattingly's Love Child says:

          Bard’s curveball created a wormhole. Sadly for the Red Sox, Big Papi’s little remaining mojo was sucked in and dropped off in another galaxy.

          • Reggie C. says:

            “There’s more than 1 of everything” – favorite line from the Fringe season finale

            Could very well be that what we’re seeing is David Ortiz from Earth 2 at the plate. Or maybe he’s just off the juice.

        • Nady Nation says:

          That GM must’ve been using a YES gun. Gameday had his CURVEBALL topping out at 113.

      • I Remember Celerino Sanchez says:

        B-Strasser?

    • Slugger27 says:

      no, not for joba… jobas pitched 160 big league innings with a 2.55 era and 177 era+

      • Mike Pop says:

        Ya, but Strasburg is a beast. I mean he has put up better collegiate numbers than Joba ever did. Not to mention the thought of using him in the 8th or 9th is mouth watering.

        • Mattingly's Love Child says:

          Nah, have him pitch the 7th. CC showed last night that he’s great in the 8th. Strasburg, CC, Mo, greatest bullpen EVAH!!!!11!!!!!!!

    • Drew says:

      /Oaktag

  7. Doug says:

    KLaw’s scouting report on Jackson (certainly not glowing):

    Jackson is a good athlete who has had severe problems making contact in college despite the benefits accorded by the use of an aluminum bat. He has a great swing with quick hands, setting up just at his back shoulder and loading by moving his hands down slightly rather than back. His swing plane is flat and — oddly enough — looks geared more for contact than for power, since there’s little loft in it. Unfortunately, Jackson just doesn’t make much contact and the problem has become worse rather than better as he’s gotten older. He does kick his front leg in hard toward his back leg just as he’s trying to shift his weight forward, which can cause timing issues. He’s a plus runner with good range in center but a fringe-average arm. He’s a good enough athlete to go in the top two or three rounds, but in a year that’s light on definite college bats, he could move up into the late first or sandwich.

    • Doug says:

      #58 in his top 100 btw

    • cult of basebaal says:

      ugh. i’d be disappointed if we took him with ‘Gerrit Cole’s Pick’.

      • Jake K. says:

        Yeah, doesn’t seem like a great trade.

        • Speaking of which: If we get Matt Davidson or Jiovanni Mier, would you consider that a win, lose, or draw when viewed as a one-for-one trade for the theoretical Gerrit Cole?

          • Doug says:

            Personally think you take a top arm like Cole over the other two. And then you have to factor in that he’d be in our system for a year already.

          • Jake K. says:

            A question like that is above my pay grade. I don’t know much of anything about Davidson or Mier.

          • I think it’s gotta be a loss, no? At the time the Yanks drafted Cole, they projected him, if he stayed in school, as a high first-round draft pick in a few years.

            It may wind up being a win, in retrospect, but I think you’d take Cole over either Davidson or Mier if they were in the same draft, no? I think that means Cole is the better end of the hypothetical one-for-one trade.

            • Fair enough. Second question:

              If we draft two good to very good prospects with our two holdover picks from last year at #29 and #76 (the aborted Cole and Bittle picks), say, like, Mier at #29 and, oh, let’s say, LHP Chris Dwyer from Clemson at #76, can we put to rest the whole “The 08 draft was a horrible debacle” concept? I mean, even if Cole and Bittle eventually get picked by someone else and become great big league pitchers, if we’ve got two other guys who are also good players, it may not be a wash, but isn’t it relatively moot?

              • Mattingly's Love Child says:

                It all depends on if any of the other players from the 08 class turn into anything. But then the top 2 picks from the 09 class (#29 and #76), are they credited to the 08 class? So if the Yanks draft terribly with the rest of their picks (I know no other high picks so it makes it silly to judge) in 2009 does that become the terrible draft class?

                Right now it seems like an exercise in semantics.

                But I think it is also too soon to call the 08 draft class a horrible debacle. It doesn’t look great so far, but it hasn’t even been 1 year yet.

              • Eric says:

                I’m not sure we’ll get a talent like Cole available at #29 this year, but I think we could do better than Bittle in the 2nd.

    • If anything, his contact has been inconsistent. In ’07, he had a 25% K rate, then it dropped to about 15% in ’08, and this year, it’s back up to around 24 percent.

  8. Reggie C. says:

    Interesting read.

    BA reports that there’s alot of JD Drew in Brett Jackson, except he does strikeout.

    Brett Jackson’s ’09 stats: .320/.413/.568 (led team in triples with 5) in 50 games played

    The lineup contains several free swingers besides Jackson, and guys who’ve K’d almost as much as Jackson, but haven’t walked nearly as much.

    • jsbrendog says:

      BA reports that there’s alot of JD Drew in Brett Jackson, except he does strikeout.

      so he doesnt get on the field much? and strikesout?

  9. Reggie C. says:

    Mike A.,

    You’d prefer Davidson to Jackson?? In a stronger crop of college bats, Brett Jackson likely finds himself selected as a supplemental 1st/2nd round pick, but in this draft Jackson does offer the Yanks a candidate for the CF job. Its not like Jackson has done anything in ’09 to cause his stock to drop. He does lead the team in Ks, but also in BBs. He’s also got the physical tools to stay at CF.

    I’d understand Meier and LeMahieu over Jackson, but definitely not Davidson.

    • Mattingly's Love Child says:

      Why not Pollock over Jackson? If you’re looking at a more probable talent with than one with more upside? Of course I have no idea if in the mock draft Pollock went higher. But Law seems to like him more than Jackson. (and yes I’m biased, he played for my old high school, by far the best player to come out of our baseball program)

      But I think I’m with Mke that I’d strongly prefer Meier and Davidson over all of the lot. Best talent available, is Jackson really the better talent than Davidson or Meier (in this scenario)?

      • Mattingly's Love Child says:

        Mier….my bad on the spelling there

      • Reggie C. says:

        Jackson isn’t that much better talent or value than Davidson or Meier at the bottom of the first round. But my thinking always returns to what’s in the farm right now. Teixeira at 1B and Arod at 3B , and … i hate going back to this – Montero, who might not be a catcher with our Yanks.

        Jackson just plays a more premium position. Though Davidson offers more projectability on the bat, and i admit all i know is that Davidson’s bat is his calling card, why not go for the guy who plays a premium position?

        • But my thinking always returns to what’s in the farm right now. Teixeira at 1B and Arod at 3B , and … i hate going back to this – Montero, who might not be a catcher with our Yanks.

          Meh, in three years time when all these guys are ready to play in the bigs, ARod will probably be our fulltime DH anyway. I’m not averse to taking a 3B like Davidson, we’ll find room for him.

        • Mattingly's Love Child says:

          I see your point. I don’t necessarily agree with you, but I see how what you’re saying makes sense.

          My point about Pollock though (Klaw’s grades):

          PRESENT FUTURE
          Hitting 45 55
          Power 40 45
          Plate Discipline 45 55

          is that he grades out as a better CF talent than Jackson. So unless he’s already taken(since I don’t have that access I have no idea, I could be arguing a moot point here), it seems that if you’re going to focus on a premium position then you take the best available at that position.

          I myself would take the best available (Davidson) and worry about the logjam later.

    • I’d understand Meier and LeMahieu over Jackson, but definitely not Davidson.

      But, of that foursome, doesn’t Davidson clearly have the best bat? Like, heads and shoulders better than Jackson, LeMahieu, and Mier? That’s what I’ve been reading.

      • Doug says:

        klaw player grades (hitting):

        Davidson:
        PRESENT FUTURE
        Hitting 45 60
        Power 40 55
        Plate Discipline 40 55

        Jackson:
        PRESENT FUTURE
        Hitting 45 50
        Power 45 45
        Plate Discipline 40 45

        Mier:
        PRESENT FUTURE
        Hitting 40 55
        Power 35 40
        Plate Discipline 40 45

        LeMahieu’s not in his top 100

      • Reggie C. says:

        Davidson isn’t Eric Hosmer, but the bat is great. Does he project to have a better bat than Jackson or LeMahieu in the pro level? I can’t say. Jackson has got 3 years of Pac-10 baseball and he’s swung his aluminum bat very well too. Give me the CF.

  10. ChrisS says:

    The Yankees should take Sanchez or a right handed pitcher. They’re very valuable and we can trade them for other positional needs we develop.

  11. Reggie C. says:

    I do gotta say that i’m glad to see these projections indicate that the Yanks are looking to pick up the best position player available.

    I’ve got no hang up with picking a Luke Bailey or Davidson or Meier at this point in the 1st round. The good college and HS lefties appear to be tracked by teams picking well ahead of the Yanks, so hopefully the org does have a selection b/w Catchers, Middle infielders, and CFs.

    • Mattingly's Love Child says:

      I wholeheartedly agree! It would be nice if the best available also happened to be able to fit an organizational need.

      • And the good news is that there seems to be a big muddle of guys with fairly equal grades in the 20-50 range of prospects, and that muddle of guys includes a good sampling of everything (pitchers, outfielders, corner bats, middle infielders) that all rate about the same, so it seems like we can draft specifically for organizational need without really “reaching” or bypassing some other elite talent.

        I’m getting the feeling that when we come up at 29 we’ll have about 10 options that are all basically equally graded and represent the full range of positional options. So we can take BPA limited to what we feel our biggest area of need is and still have it be equal to BPA irrespective of need.

        • Doug says:

          any LHPs in that mix? personally think that’s our biggest organizational need

          • Plenty.

            Excluding the LHP’s likely to go before we pick, KLaw’s big 100 would say we’ve got a shot at:

            20 Tyler Skaggs LHP Santa Monica HS (Calif.)
            21 Chad James LHP Yukon HS (Okla.)
            27 Rex Brothers LHP Lipscomb
            42 Brooks Raley LHP/OF Texas A&M
            46 Andy Oliver LHP Oklahoma State
            48 Steven Matz LHP Ward Melville HS (NY)
            53 Mike Minor LHP Vanderbilt
            68 David Holmberg LHP Port Charlotte HS (Fla.)
            75 Chris Dwyer LHP Clemson
            76 Slade Heathcott OF/LHP Texas HS, (Tex.)
            83 Jake Eliopoulos LHP Sacred Heart Catholic (ON)
            93 Matt Bashore LHP Indiana
            95 Ian Krol LHP Neuqua Valley HS (Ill.)
            98 Mike Belfiore LHP Boston College

            • Mike R. - Retire 21 says:

              Why is Andrew Oliver so low? LHP that can touch 98 with a good change up and good control should be in the top 30.

  12. JohnC says:

    I’d love for them to take rhp Madison Younginer

  13. Bo says:

    You guys are talking about these prospects like you have actually seen them multiple times and are not just repeating what a few blogs say. Have a little faith in the scouting dept. The people that actually see them play and scout them.

  14. Brendo says:

    Too bad they can’t trade up for Strasburg.

  15. Can anyone tell if BCs Mike Belfiore is anywhere on the draft?

  16. baller says:

    Quick google research

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4BE-XZc0NoQ

    from 2008

    and this on front of cal site today

    BERKELEY, CALIF. – Junior center fielder Brett Jackson nearly hit for the cycle and finished with a career-high eight RBI, while six California pitchers combined for a shutout as the Golden Bears defeated Sacramento State, 15-0, Tuesday afternoon at Evans Diamond. Cal improved to 23-27 overall and the Hornets fell to 27-23. Jackson went 4-for-6 with an RBI single in the second inning, a grand slam in the third inning and a three-run triple in the sixth inning to account for his eight RBI. In the eighth inning, Sacramento State left fielder Ivan Otsuka made a tumbling catch to prevent Jackson from a possible double.

  17. [...] req’d), and now have the Yanks taking Texas prep outfielder Slade Heathcott. In their previous mock draft they projected the Yanks to take Cal center fielder Brett Jackson. As you can see from his scouting [...]

  18. [...] has the Yanks taking Cal’s Brett Jackson, who Baseball America projected the Yanks to take in their first mock draft back in the middle of May. Mayo notes that the Yanks might be a little timid about going after a [...]

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