May
15

BA’s Mock Draft V1.0

By

Baseball America posted the first of several Mock Drafts yesterday, though it’s hidden behind the subscriber wall. I will tell you this much: with the 29th overall pick they have the Yanks taking Cal center fielder Brett Jackson, who’s a supreme athlete but has questions about his bat. Surprisingly, they have both Matt Davidson and Jiovanni Mier dropping out of the first round. I’d much prefer either of those two to Jackson.

Categories : Asides, Draft
  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

    Since we can’t see it behind the wall, excerpt some of the other interesting things for us. Who does BA have the teams in the AL East taking? Can you give us those?

    Anybody you saw going way higher than you thought was appropriate?

    • Reggie C.

      Max Stassi – Red Sox (also could consider Tony sanchez (the BC catcher))
      Tony Sanchez – Rays (pick after Yanks)

      There’s a short throwaway mention on how the yanks would love to have Grant Green become DJ’s heir, but realistically the chances of Green sliding that far are almost nill.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        What about Baltimore at 5 and Toronto at 20?

        • Reggie C.

          I’m just incomplete in my posts today. My bad.

          Orioles: Alex White (though they’ll think hard on Tyler Matzek and will pass on Tate)
          Toronto: James Paxton (Kentucky lefty who leads Division I in K/9. and he’s canadian)

          • Bo

            It’s 40 bucks. That and BA should be required for any baseball fan especially ones who post on blogs daily. The economy is bad but not that bad.

            • http://www.riveraveblues.com Joseph Pawlikowski

              Bo: Understander of everyone’s individual economic situation.

  • Mattingly’s Love Child

    Well it is early for a mock draft (I really have no idea, I’m taking my Ps and Qs from Klaw that it is too early for a mock draft).

    I certainly hope the Yanks would just draft the best player available, which doesn’t seem like Jackson would be.

  • Jack The Flipper

    Are the Yankees in on the Miguel Angel Sano sweepstakes ? He is a 16 yr old “so he says” Dominican shortstop prospect.

    • Spaceman.Spiff

      Ah so that’s 18-21 in normal human years, no?

  • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

    Via TBC (out of 100):

    Power: 41
    Speed: 83
    Power: 46
    Patience: 80

    • zs190

      Is Power 41 or 46? You just listed it twice, is 41 contact/hitting? That sounds like a Brett Gardner that is more patient and has a little more power, I hope that’s not who they are taking, seems very conservative.

      • Andy In Sunny Daytona

        9 out of 10 Legends Suite Ticket Holders prefer a power-challenged, fast white guy who strikes out to much, to any other alternative.

        • jsbrendog

          ietc

        • BklynJT

          Corrected

          9 out of of the 10 Legends Suite Ticket Holders prefer a power-challenged, fast white guy who strikes out to much, to any other alternative.

          • Klemy

            lol well played.

      • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

        Woops, let me fix that:

        41 is power, 46 is contact

  • rbizzler

    Meh, color me unimpressed by that prediction. The reports on Mier and Davidson have been way more impressive than what I have seen about Jackson.

    Maybe they were confused and combined Brett and A-Jax to come up with their faux pick.

    • Doug

      yeah, especially curious as to why they have davidson out of the 1st. ESPN’s draft blog on Wednesday said this:

      “3B Matt Davidson went 2-for-3 with a double Tuesday, lifting his line to .548/.682/1.110 with eight home runs and a 23-6 BB/K ratio. Davidson is almost certain to go in Round 1, potentially before Arizona picks back-to-back at 16 and 17.”

  • Yankee42

    Sorry if this is off-subject….and not that it’s going to happen, but…if the Nats offered a trade for their first round pick (Strasburg) for Joba Chamberlain and possibly another prospect, would you make that deal in a heartbeat?

    If not, why?

    • Mattingly’s Love Child

      Can’t trade draft picks. The CBA prohibits it.

      But I’m not sure if I’d make that trade.

      • Mattingly’s Love Child

        Joba’s already in the majors and proven he can get big league hitters out. No he isn’t an ace yet, but he’s got the potential to be an ace. Strasburg has the potential to be an ace of aces, but at this point has only gotten mid-major baseball hitters out.

    • Mike Pop

      Lol.

    • jsbrendog

      only if we put strasburg in the pen

      • Whozat

        Bangwagon

        • jsbrendog

          well played.

      • Andy In Sunny Daytona

        Strasburg would only be the second hardest throwing reliever in baseball next to legendary Daniel Bard.

        I’m not sure if anyone saw Bard’s debut the other night, but I was told by an anonymous assistant GM that he was topping out at 113, his curveball broke so much that it broke the natural laws of physics.

        • Mattingly’s Love Child

          Bard’s curveball created a wormhole. Sadly for the Red Sox, Big Papi’s little remaining mojo was sucked in and dropped off in another galaxy.

          • Reggie C.

            “There’s more than 1 of everything” – favorite line from the Fringe season finale

            Could very well be that what we’re seeing is David Ortiz from Earth 2 at the plate. Or maybe he’s just off the juice.

        • Nady Nation

          That GM must’ve been using a YES gun. Gameday had his CURVEBALL topping out at 113.

      • I Remember Celerino Sanchez

        B-Strasser?

    • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tADvb3yyhwM Slugger27

      no, not for joba… jobas pitched 160 big league innings with a 2.55 era and 177 era+

      • Mike Pop

        Ya, but Strasburg is a beast. I mean he has put up better collegiate numbers than Joba ever did. Not to mention the thought of using him in the 8th or 9th is mouth watering.

        • Mattingly’s Love Child

          Nah, have him pitch the 7th. CC showed last night that he’s great in the 8th. Strasburg, CC, Mo, greatest bullpen EVAH!!!!11!!!!!!!

    • Drew

      /Oaktag

  • Doug

    KLaw’s scouting report on Jackson (certainly not glowing):

    Jackson is a good athlete who has had severe problems making contact in college despite the benefits accorded by the use of an aluminum bat. He has a great swing with quick hands, setting up just at his back shoulder and loading by moving his hands down slightly rather than back. His swing plane is flat and — oddly enough — looks geared more for contact than for power, since there’s little loft in it. Unfortunately, Jackson just doesn’t make much contact and the problem has become worse rather than better as he’s gotten older. He does kick his front leg in hard toward his back leg just as he’s trying to shift his weight forward, which can cause timing issues. He’s a plus runner with good range in center but a fringe-average arm. He’s a good enough athlete to go in the top two or three rounds, but in a year that’s light on definite college bats, he could move up into the late first or sandwich.

    • Doug

      #58 in his top 100 btw

    • cult of basebaal

      ugh. i’d be disappointed if we took him with ‘Gerrit Cole’s Pick’.

      • Jake K.

        Yeah, doesn’t seem like a great trade.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          Speaking of which: If we get Matt Davidson or Jiovanni Mier, would you consider that a win, lose, or draw when viewed as a one-for-one trade for the theoretical Gerrit Cole?

          • Doug

            Personally think you take a top arm like Cole over the other two. And then you have to factor in that he’d be in our system for a year already.

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

              True. If Davidson can be a middle of the order bat, though, and play 3B passably well, I wonder if his eventual overall value doesn’t trump Cole’s.

              • Doug

                questions about him playing 3B, though (as you know)

          • Jake K.

            A question like that is above my pay grade. I don’t know much of anything about Davidson or Mier.

          • http://mantisfists.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/julius-carry-aka-shonuff.jpg The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

            I think it’s gotta be a loss, no? At the time the Yanks drafted Cole, they projected him, if he stayed in school, as a high first-round draft pick in a few years.

            It may wind up being a win, in retrospect, but I think you’d take Cole over either Davidson or Mier if they were in the same draft, no? I think that means Cole is the better end of the hypothetical one-for-one trade.

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

              Fair enough. Second question:

              If we draft two good to very good prospects with our two holdover picks from last year at #29 and #76 (the aborted Cole and Bittle picks), say, like, Mier at #29 and, oh, let’s say, LHP Chris Dwyer from Clemson at #76, can we put to rest the whole “The 08 draft was a horrible debacle” concept? I mean, even if Cole and Bittle eventually get picked by someone else and become great big league pitchers, if we’ve got two other guys who are also good players, it may not be a wash, but isn’t it relatively moot?

              • Mattingly’s Love Child

                It all depends on if any of the other players from the 08 class turn into anything. But then the top 2 picks from the 09 class (#29 and #76), are they credited to the 08 class? So if the Yanks draft terribly with the rest of their picks (I know no other high picks so it makes it silly to judge) in 2009 does that become the terrible draft class?

                Right now it seems like an exercise in semantics.

                But I think it is also too soon to call the 08 draft class a horrible debacle. It doesn’t look great so far, but it hasn’t even been 1 year yet.

              • http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com/ Eric

                I’m not sure we’ll get a talent like Cole available at #29 this year, but I think we could do better than Bittle in the 2nd.

    • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

      If anything, his contact has been inconsistent. In ’07, he had a 25% K rate, then it dropped to about 15% in ’08, and this year, it’s back up to around 24 percent.

      • Doug

        15% isn’t terrible, but 1-in-4 is certainly not good, especially for a speed guy. not sure i’d be too excited if we draft this kid

        • http://bronxbaseballdaily.com Matt ACTY/BBD

          Yeah, I’d be a little peeved.

  • Reggie C.

    Interesting read.

    BA reports that there’s alot of JD Drew in Brett Jackson, except he does strikeout.

    Brett Jackson’s ’09 stats: .320/.413/.568 (led team in triples with 5) in 50 games played

    The lineup contains several free swingers besides Jackson, and guys who’ve K’d almost as much as Jackson, but haven’t walked nearly as much.

    • jsbrendog

      BA reports that there’s alot of JD Drew in Brett Jackson, except he does strikeout.

      so he doesnt get on the field much? and strikesout?

      • Reggie C.

        Heh.

        Jackson played in every game. Its just a physique comparison with JD Drew.

  • Reggie C.

    Mike A.,

    You’d prefer Davidson to Jackson?? In a stronger crop of college bats, Brett Jackson likely finds himself selected as a supplemental 1st/2nd round pick, but in this draft Jackson does offer the Yanks a candidate for the CF job. Its not like Jackson has done anything in ’09 to cause his stock to drop. He does lead the team in Ks, but also in BBs. He’s also got the physical tools to stay at CF.

    I’d understand Meier and LeMahieu over Jackson, but definitely not Davidson.

    • Mattingly’s Love Child

      Why not Pollock over Jackson? If you’re looking at a more probable talent with than one with more upside? Of course I have no idea if in the mock draft Pollock went higher. But Law seems to like him more than Jackson. (and yes I’m biased, he played for my old high school, by far the best player to come out of our baseball program)

      But I think I’m with Mke that I’d strongly prefer Meier and Davidson over all of the lot. Best talent available, is Jackson really the better talent than Davidson or Meier (in this scenario)?

      • Mattingly’s Love Child

        Mier….my bad on the spelling there

      • Reggie C.

        Jackson isn’t that much better talent or value than Davidson or Meier at the bottom of the first round. But my thinking always returns to what’s in the farm right now. Teixeira at 1B and Arod at 3B , and … i hate going back to this – Montero, who might not be a catcher with our Yanks.

        Jackson just plays a more premium position. Though Davidson offers more projectability on the bat, and i admit all i know is that Davidson’s bat is his calling card, why not go for the guy who plays a premium position?

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

          But my thinking always returns to what’s in the farm right now. Teixeira at 1B and Arod at 3B , and … i hate going back to this – Montero, who might not be a catcher with our Yanks.

          Meh, in three years time when all these guys are ready to play in the bigs, ARod will probably be our fulltime DH anyway. I’m not averse to taking a 3B like Davidson, we’ll find room for him.

        • Mattingly’s Love Child

          I see your point. I don’t necessarily agree with you, but I see how what you’re saying makes sense.

          My point about Pollock though (Klaw’s grades):

          PRESENT FUTURE
          Hitting 45 55
          Power 40 45
          Plate Discipline 45 55

          is that he grades out as a better CF talent than Jackson. So unless he’s already taken(since I don’t have that access I have no idea, I could be arguing a moot point here), it seems that if you’re going to focus on a premium position then you take the best available at that position.

          I myself would take the best available (Davidson) and worry about the logjam later.

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Joseph Pawlikowski

        Heh. Jackson Pollock.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

      I’d understand Meier and LeMahieu over Jackson, but definitely not Davidson.

      But, of that foursome, doesn’t Davidson clearly have the best bat? Like, heads and shoulders better than Jackson, LeMahieu, and Mier? That’s what I’ve been reading.

      • Doug

        klaw player grades (hitting):

        Davidson:
        PRESENT FUTURE
        Hitting 45 60
        Power 40 55
        Plate Discipline 40 55

        Jackson:
        PRESENT FUTURE
        Hitting 45 50
        Power 45 45
        Plate Discipline 40 45

        Mier:
        PRESENT FUTURE
        Hitting 40 55
        Power 35 40
        Plate Discipline 40 45

        LeMahieu’s not in his top 100

      • Reggie C.

        Davidson isn’t Eric Hosmer, but the bat is great. Does he project to have a better bat than Jackson or LeMahieu in the pro level? I can’t say. Jackson has got 3 years of Pac-10 baseball and he’s swung his aluminum bat very well too. Give me the CF.

  • ChrisS

    The Yankees should take Sanchez or a right handed pitcher. They’re very valuable and we can trade them for other positional needs we develop.

  • Reggie C.

    I do gotta say that i’m glad to see these projections indicate that the Yanks are looking to pick up the best position player available.

    I’ve got no hang up with picking a Luke Bailey or Davidson or Meier at this point in the 1st round. The good college and HS lefties appear to be tracked by teams picking well ahead of the Yanks, so hopefully the org does have a selection b/w Catchers, Middle infielders, and CFs.

    • Mattingly’s Love Child

      I wholeheartedly agree! It would be nice if the best available also happened to be able to fit an organizational need.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

        And the good news is that there seems to be a big muddle of guys with fairly equal grades in the 20-50 range of prospects, and that muddle of guys includes a good sampling of everything (pitchers, outfielders, corner bats, middle infielders) that all rate about the same, so it seems like we can draft specifically for organizational need without really “reaching” or bypassing some other elite talent.

        I’m getting the feeling that when we come up at 29 we’ll have about 10 options that are all basically equally graded and represent the full range of positional options. So we can take BPA limited to what we feel our biggest area of need is and still have it be equal to BPA irrespective of need.

        • Doug

          any LHPs in that mix? personally think that’s our biggest organizational need

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside

            Plenty.

            Excluding the LHP’s likely to go before we pick, KLaw’s big 100 would say we’ve got a shot at:

            20 Tyler Skaggs LHP Santa Monica HS (Calif.)
            21 Chad James LHP Yukon HS (Okla.)
            27 Rex Brothers LHP Lipscomb
            42 Brooks Raley LHP/OF Texas A&M
            46 Andy Oliver LHP Oklahoma State
            48 Steven Matz LHP Ward Melville HS (NY)
            53 Mike Minor LHP Vanderbilt
            68 David Holmberg LHP Port Charlotte HS (Fla.)
            75 Chris Dwyer LHP Clemson
            76 Slade Heathcott OF/LHP Texas HS, (Tex.)
            83 Jake Eliopoulos LHP Sacred Heart Catholic (ON)
            93 Matt Bashore LHP Indiana
            95 Ian Krol LHP Neuqua Valley HS (Ill.)
            98 Mike Belfiore LHP Boston College

            • Mike R. – Retire 21

              Why is Andrew Oliver so low? LHP that can touch 98 with a good change up and good control should be in the top 30.

  • JohnC

    I’d love for them to take rhp Madison Younginer

  • Bo

    You guys are talking about these prospects like you have actually seen them multiple times and are not just repeating what a few blogs say. Have a little faith in the scouting dept. The people that actually see them play and scout them.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Joseph Pawlikowski

      It’s called a meta analysis, and scientists use that method all the time.

  • Brendo

    Too bad they can’t trade up for Strasburg.

  • http://eastrutherfordrant.com donttradecano

    Can anyone tell if BCs Mike Belfiore is anywhere on the draft?

  • baller

    Quick google research

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4BE-XZc0NoQ

    from 2008

    and this on front of cal site today

    BERKELEY, CALIF. – Junior center fielder Brett Jackson nearly hit for the cycle and finished with a career-high eight RBI, while six California pitchers combined for a shutout as the Golden Bears defeated Sacramento State, 15-0, Tuesday afternoon at Evans Diamond. Cal improved to 23-27 overall and the Hornets fell to 27-23. Jackson went 4-for-6 with an RBI single in the second inning, a grand slam in the third inning and a three-run triple in the sixth inning to account for his eight RBI. In the eighth inning, Sacramento State left fielder Ivan Otsuka made a tumbling catch to prevent Jackson from a possible double.

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