Archive for May, 2009
Game 37: Win today, win the series
Posted by: | CommentsIt’s tough to beat the rush of the last two games, but a win today would be enough excitement in itself. The Yankees are looking to take the third of this four-game set, giving them a third-straight series victory. It seems the team has responded to a recent bout of ugliness with a winning streak of sorts, and there’s nothing better than a series win to keep that moving.
Taking the mound will be A.J. Burnett, who gave the Yanks length in his last appearance, though his performance wasn’t exactly what the team needed. He gave up five runs through 7.2 IP, though he didn’t give up the final two until the eighth. Seven innings, three runs would be just fine today, but with Cano out of the lineup and Swisher mired in a serious slump, they could use a good one out of A.J. to seal the series.
The Twins will send out 25-year-old Kevin Slowey to stanch the bleeding. His holds a 5-1 record, mainly because the Twins were able to overcome two outings in which he allowed five runs. He’s had three such appearances this year, the other resulting in a no-decision. He pitched well his last time out against Detroit, allowing just one run over six innings. Not your typical strikeout pitcher, Slowey compensates with impeccable control. He’s walked just four in 40.1 innings this year and allowed just 1.35 per nine innings in 2008. The Yanks might not be able to wait him out as they do many other pitchers.
Lineup:
1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Johnny Damon, LF
3. Mark Teixeira, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Hideki Matsui, DH
6. Nick Swisher, RF
7. Melky Cabrera, CF
8. Ramiro Pena, 2B
9. Kevin Cash, C
And on the mound, number thirty-four, A.J. Burnett
If A-Rod tipped pitches, it didn’t work
Posted by: | CommentsOne of the more serious allegations Selena Roberts raised in her book A-Rod was that the former shortstop participated in pitch-tipping schemes while in Texas. This is one I’d like to have seen her approach with more veracity or else not approach it at all. Tipping pitches, even in blowout games, is no light charge — it’s basically treasonous by baseball standards. It’s unsportsmanlike in every sense of the term. Yet Roberts thought it was okay to raise the issue with only a few anonymous speculators — and by all accounts that’s what they were, speculators. They were not, by any known account, participants in the alleged scheme.
Upon hearing the charges, most baseball players wrote them off as ridiculous. Nothing like that could have happened, said former teammates like Michael Young and Jeff Brantley. Then again, initial steroid allegations were likely met with a similar response. Baseball players have a code of silence, so it’s not likely we’d hear any of A-Rod’s teammates or competitors bring this charge without the veil of anonymity. It leaves the investigation all but impossible, meaning the MLB’s official look into the issue is simply a matter of course. So is there any way we can find out for sure whether or not A-Rod participated in pitch-tipping schemes?
The only way to evaluate the situation without direct player testimony is to look back at the box scores of qualifying games. Dan Rosencheck of the Times looks at the work of two baseball minds, Tom Tango of The Book and Sean Forman of Baseball Reference, to determine if there’s any statistical correlation between blowouts and A-Rod’s numbers. They also look to opposing middle infielders in the same situations. After analyzing situations for high, medium, and low leverage, and then looking at them in terms of difference in score, it appears that either the charges are bunk, or that the scheme was laughably ineffective.
First up is Tango and his statistic, Leverage Index. RAB readers might know this from when we post WPA charts for certain games. Simply put, Leverage Index (LI) is the measure of a situation’s importance. The first batter of the game — none on, none out in the top of the first — has a LI of 1.00. As the game unfolds, the LI fluctuates. If there’s a tie score with a runner on second in the bottom of the sixth, the LI will be well above 1.00. If the game is a blowout, the leverage will likely be far below 1.00. In looking at the pitch-tipping allegations, Rosencheck took situations where the LI was below 0.7, a reasonable threshold. In those situations, A-Rod had a .982 OPS. That seems very good, but when he has a 1.017 OPS in medium leverage situations, and a 1.076 OPS in high leverage situations (uhh, I thought he was unclutch), the allegations look a bit silly. The same trend registers for opposing middle infielders, as they have a .899 OPS in high-leverage situations, .825 in mid-leverage ones, and a .817 in relatively lax situations.
If a stat like LI isn’t your cup of tea, Forman has some data on numbers when the two teams’ scores were separated by seven or more runs. In this case, A-Rod OPS’d .851, compared to 1.021 when the difference in score was six runs or fewer. Ditto opposing middle infielders, who OPS’d .744 in seven-run blowouts, and .840 when the score was closer. It’s pretty clear that neither A-Rod nor his counterparts had any advantage when the game was a blowout.
Does this mean that A-Rod did not participate in pitch-tipping schemes? Not necessarily. We all know the correlation – causation relationship. The numbers suggest that no such scheme existed, but they cannot completely exonerate A-Rod and the other offending parties. In fact, if there was such a scheme in effect, the numbers prove how horribly inane it was. If the goal was to pad numbers in meaningless situations, A-Rod failed in the worst way. His numbers were markedly worse in blowouts when, if we’re to believe Selena Roberts, he possessed advance knowledge of pitch type and location.
This is an exercise Roberts could have easily conducted before deciding to include the pitch-tipping allegations in her book. She chose not to, of course, opting to take the accounts of a few anonymous players instead. Players who, by their own accounts, had no real proof to support their claims. It sounds like a low standard of evidence, especially for an investigative reporter. It would seem, for the time being, that we can forget about the pitch-tipping charges. Unless participating players come forward, it doesn’t seem like there’s anything to go on.
A franchise at a crossroads
Posted by: | CommentsOver the last few years with the rise of the new Stadium and the fall of George Steinbrenner, we’ve written a lot about the Yanks’ current upper management structure. Between George’s declining health and the Jennifer Steinbrenner/Steve Swindal divorce, the Yanks went enjoying a solid leadership to suffering through a few years of turmoil.
Right now, Hal Steinbrenner appears to be the one with the power, and he shares it with his brother Hank. Helping him out — and seemingly taking the PR fall — are Randy Levine and Lonn Trost. Late this week, we learned that Trost and Levine may be working on borrowed time. With the team facing a lot of criticism for the way it has handled aspects of the new stadium, the Steinbrenners may look to assert their power and shore up public support.
All of these behind-the-scenes machinations are simply reminders of the unilateral power George Steinbrenner held. Earlier this week, Wayne G. McDonnell, Jr, a contributor to Maury Brown’s Biz of Business and a professor of sports management at NYU, opined on the Yankees. Is this, he wondered, an organization in transition or one being mismanaged?
There is no denying that the New York Yankees have had an awkward and inauspicious beginning to the post George Steinbrenner era both on and off the field. Whether it is selling grossly overpriced stadium memorabilia to the masses or engaging in a war of words with the commissioner of Major League Soccer, the new leaders of the Yankees have already encountered countless obstacles. While the new ball park is extraordinary and surprisingly captures the essence of the old Yankee Stadium, the pricing model is flawed and needs substantial revision to reflect the current market conditions. The Yankees’ overtly aggressive pursuit of the white collar audience is alarming since this type of customer is quickly becoming extinct.
What’s even more disheartening is that the throngs of fiscally challenged Yankee fans have to actively survey the secondary ticket market for affordability instead of desired seat locations. Season ticket holders are now starting to feel the pinch of the prices at the new ball park and they are expeditiously liquidating their ticket inventories at discounts. To put it simply, customers are paying premium prices for a pedestrian product. The constant dependence on the free agent market has been a detriment to the organization. Even though the Yankees have spent almost a half a billion dollars on three ball players this past offseason, they are still mired in mediocrity and struggling with the implementation of cutting edge ideas regarding player development. Fans are paying prices fitting for a team like the 1998 Yankees. Instead, they are receiving the 2008 version…
The new ownership group of the Yankees has made a few gaffes. But, it is not their fault that the economy has imploded and we are now living in a world of unforeseen disarray. Unfortunately, they are a victim of bad timing. Just like our economy, the New York Yankees are trying to learn how to conduct business in an effective and efficient manner. However, they also have to learn how to accommodate baseball fans and make each person who walks through the turn stile feel valuable and important. Only time will tell if the New York Yankees are ready to compete in a world of economic uncertainty or will they adhere to their irrational ideals and principles.
While I’ve been critical of the Yankees’ decisions and many of their public statements, McDonnell is right to question the economics of it and the state of the organization. The Yankees are engaged in what is basically a case study of sports economics. How far can a team push the envelope and still maintain its fan base, its revenue base and its identity? We don’t have yet the answers, but it’s something to ponder on a Sunday morning.
Ortiz coughs up another save in Tampa loss
Posted by: | CommentsOne year ago today on DotF, Dellin Betances struck out eight in six no-hit innings against Asheville.
Triple-A Scranton was rained out. They’ll play two tomorrow, and Chad Jennings says Chien-Ming Wang will get the ball in game one. Brian Bruney is also set to pitch an inning at some point during the two games tomorrow.
Double-A Trenton‘s doubleheader was rained out. Mike Ashmore says they’ll play two tomorrow, then make up the other game when Trenton heads back to Binghamton in mid-June.
High-A Tampa (5-3 loss to Dunedin)
Jack Rye: 1 for 3, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP, 1 E (throwing)
Eric Fryer: 0 for 4, 1 BB
Jesus Montero: 2 for 5, 1 2B, 1 K – 12 for his last 28 (.426)
Brandon Laird: 1 for 5, 1 K
Austin Romine, Damon Sublett & Walt Ibarra: all 1 for 4, 1 R – Romine doubled, drew a walk & K’ed twice … Sublett K’ed once
Brian Baisley: 1 for 2, 2 BB, 1 E (fielding)
Dellin Betances: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, 1 WP, 6-5 GB/FB – walk rate is back up to 4.65 BBper9 this year after his superb second half last year
Ronny Marte: 1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 1-1 GB/FB
Tim Norton: 1 IP, zeroes, 2 K, 1-0 GB/FB
Jon Ortiz: 1 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 WP, 2-1 GB/FB – already his third blown save of the year … 7.50 ERA & 2.08 WHIP this year after 2.03 & 0.98 last year
Yanks acquire Romulo Sanchez
Posted by: | CommentsVia the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, the Yanks have acquired righty reliever Romulo Sanchez from the Pirates in exchange for righty starter Eric Hacker. The Yankees had ten days to trade Hacker after designating him for assignment last week to make room on the 40-man roster for Angel Berroa. Sanchez, 25, had a 4.60 ERA in 12 appearances for the Bucs over the last two years, but he was outrighted off the 40-man roster in early April. He had a 4.50 ERA in 10 relief appearances for Triple-A Indianapolis this season.
Baseball America rated Sanchez the Pirates’ 25th best prospect coming into the year, noting that he sits 92-94 with his fastball and has a very good curveball. He’s a big boy, standing 6′-5″, 260 lbs. I’m assuming he’ll head to Triple-A Scranton’s bullpen.


