Archive for May, 2009
Another Jeter-less night does not bode well
Posted by: | CommentsThe game thread won’t be here for another hour or so, but we’re jumping in with an early note. Derek Jeter will not be in the lineup for the second straight night. As we found out yesterday, he has a sore oblique, not a light issue for baseball players. He played through it over the weekend, collecting three hits over 14 at bats, but after the off-day on Monday it was apparently too much to bear on Tuesday. Ditto today. Word is that he hopes to play tomorrow, but we heard that yesterday, and will likely hear it again when he’s out of the lineup tomorrow. It wouldn’t be the least bit surprising to see Jeter hit the DL retroactive to May 11, meaning he couldn’t be back until May 26. The Red Sox faced the same issue with Kevin Youkilis last week, as he strained his left oblique on May 4 against the Yankees. He was just placed on the DL today.
Projecting Robinson Cano
Posted by: | CommentsHeading into the season, most of us didn’t know what to expect from Robinson Cano. We’ve seen him go from promising star in 2006 and 2007 to horrible disappointment in 2008. Was his lack of plate discipline catching up to him? Or did he just need to refocus his efforts and regain the stroke he had in earlier years? To this point, Cano has alleviated most of our fears, putting up a line of .313/.345/.507. Now that’s more like the Cano we saw in 2006-07. Yet we still must wonder: can he keep it up?
It’s easy to say yes and let that be that. But what we do here is talk baseball, so we might as well approach the question as completely as possible. Can Robinson Cano maintain the production level we’ve seen to this point? Clearly, he wasn’t going to keep up the .370 batting average he took into the early days of May — or, at least, we couldn’t expect him to do so, just as we can’t really expect that of any hitter. As we could have expected, Cano experienced a correction once the calendar flipped, going 1 for 21 with a walk from May 2 through May 7. That’s a stretch of six days, but it was enough to drop his BA from .378 to .319.
After going 4 for his last 15, Cano has shaved a few additional points off his BA, but it’s nothing to be concerned about. As we’ve seen over the past few years, he’s a hot and cold guy. He’ll hit rough patches, but he redeems himself with torrential production. For instance, over a different six-game stretch Cano went 12 for 31 (.387). An even more impressive stretch was from the start of the season through April 17, wherein he hit .405/.468/.667. Yes, he had a bad stretch last week, and even over his last five games he’s been just 4 for 15, but his hot streaks will make up for these slight drops in production.
What got me thinking about Cano was an Eric Seidman article on FanGraphs. He looks at Cano through the lens of updated ZiPS, Dan Szymborski’s projection system. These are updated now daily to reflect how the system projects a player will hit for the rest of the season. Right now it has Cano at .299/.335/.479 for the rest of the season. It seems a bit low, but it’s one possibility for how things play out.
Cano’s streaks mean that he’s subject to a great deal of randomness as concerns his final season numbers. As Cano streaks and slumps, his projections will fluctuate. If he hits his streaks at the right times, he could outperform that projection by a mile. If his slumps last a bit longer than we’ve seen so far, he could hit that .299 projection. It’s all timing with Cano. Given what we’ve seen so far it’s easy to predict that his hot streaks will outweigh his cold ones. Yet that wouldn’t be exactly accurate either, since we have no way of knowing how his streaks will time out.
What’s clear so far is that the Yankees were right to exercise patience with Cano. Not only has his offense been back to normal levels, but his defense, as Seidman points out, has been much, much better as compared to last year. Not only does UZR bear that out, but you can see the difference this year. It’s added up to a highly valuable player taking the field every day at second base. Here’s to hoping he keeps it up through his current contract and beyond.
Alan Horne’s latest ailment
Posted by: | CommentsWhen Alan Horne left last night’s start against Portland after just three-plus innings, it looked like he was just suffering from a bout of suckiness. Instead, it turns out that a tight hammy is what delivered the knockout punch. “I threw a couple balls that were up to that last hitter and really tried to get through the next one, and just had kind of a twinge in my hamstring. It’s one that I’ve blown out before, four years ago, and it’s just something you don’t play with.” said Horne. If you read the quotes in the linked article, you’ll see that the injury doesn’t sound too serious, and there’s a decent chance Horne will make his next start. The important thing is to make sure the hammy is healthy enough that Horne doesn’t subconsiously change his mechanics to compensate, putting his surgically repaired shoulder in jeopardy.
Cashman hints at another rehab start for Wang
Posted by: | CommentsOn the Brian Cashman Ambiguity Meter, this one rates just a 3. It’s pretty clear that Chien-Ming Wang will make at least one more rehab start in Scranton based on this quote (courtesy of the inimitable Chad Jennings):
“I think everybody should assume that we’ll keep going down here unless we decide otherwise,” Cashman said. “So if you want to look for an assumption, that’s the way to go.”
The way the Yanks are going right now, they could sure use a healthy Chien-Ming Wang as a stabilizing force in the rotation. The keyword is healthy, though, and it appears the Yanks are not convinced of that after Wang’s first start in Scranton.
The erstwhile Yanks ace pitched well by all accounts and statistics. As we learned in Down on the Farm, he tossed six innings, 82 pitches, of three-hit ball, striking out six and walking three, while providing a Wangian 7-4 GB/FB ratio. This is the kind of contest I wish I could have watched in condensed format. I wonder how many of those fly ball outs were dinky shots that Wang has induced since coming up with the Yanks in 2005. It’s the skill which separates him from most groundball pitchers: not only do guys beat the ball into the ground, but they generally make poor contact even when they get some lift on it.
Here’s Cashman on the outing:
“He got his work in and I don’t think he was challenged all that much,” Cashman said. “I think he feels real good about the direction he’s heading, and I was glad to be able to say that I do too… He’s definitely heading in the right direction. He’s much better. He had great mound presence, showed some great tempo. Threw strikes. I thought his slider was terrific. He did a great job. I was concerned when he got hit by that line drive on the meat of the calf. I know he took a pretty good shot there, but I was able to talk to our staff in-game. I came out of the stands and we just watched him inning-by-inning after that. As long as his mechanics were good and it wasn’t going to affect him we were going to keep going with him. He got his work in, which was great. Today was a good day.”
Yes, Wang did get drilled in the calf by a liner, but no one thought it a big deal afterward. That includes pitching coach Scott Aldred, who was also impressed by Wang’s slider. As the league has seen more and more of Chien-Ming, his slider has become an important part of his arsenal. Just imagine the damage he could do if he could pull the string once in a while. Mid-90s 4-seamer, low 90s sinker, slider, changeup? Nasty.
The Yanks will likely keep Wang on normal rest, therefore pitching him again on Sunday. Unfortunately, the Yankees do not have much room to maneuver right now. Their next off-day comes on May 28, so the starters will be going in turn until then. That creates an issue, because Wang and Phil Hughes, the man he’d likely replace, are two days apart. If Wang starts on Sunday he won’t be available again until Friday the 22nd. Hughes has starts lining up on the 15th, the 20th, and the 25th. So how would the Yanks work this?
It’s not easy to say, but they could go like this, if they were so inclined (and this is just a for-fun thing):
13th Tor: Pettitte
14th Tor: Sabathia
15th MIN: Hughes
16th MIN: Joba
17th MIN: Burnett (Wang’s AAA start)
18th MIN: Pettitte
19th BAL: Sabathia
20th BAL: Hughes
21st BAL: Joba
22nd PHI: Wang
23rd PHI: Burnett
24th PHI: Pettitte
25th Tex: Sabathia
26th Tex: Joba
27th Tex: Wang
28th Off day
29th Cle: Burnett
30th Cle: Pettitte
31st Cle: Sabathia
1st Cle: Wang
It’s not ideal, in that Burnett will be going on five days’ rest two starts in a row. Perhaps flipping Wang and Burnett on the 22nd and 23rd would alleviate that issue. Feel free to tinker. Any way they shake it out, this should allow the Yanks to put some more space between Joba’s starts, keeping his innings under more control the rest of the way.
So it looks like we’ll see good ol’ CMW against Philadelphia on Memorial Day weekend. Sounds like a plan to me. Hopefully the rotation can stabilize itself a bit by then, and Wang can become the last piece of the pitching puzzle. By that point the team should have a healthy Bruney and Marte, solidifying the bullpen. If Tex and A-Rod are hitting at that point…well, we could be forgetting about the team’s early-season woes.
Everybody hurts
Posted by: | CommentsWhen the Yankees faced Toronto ace Roy Halladay last night, they did so with a massively depleted lineup. Derek Jeter is battling an oblique pull; Jorge Posada and Jose Molina are both on the DL; Xavier Nady is attempting to rehab a severely strained elbow ligament; and Nick Swisher may or may not be recovering from a bruised elbow.
Halfway through the game, Hideki Matsui found himself out of the game. He had felt a cramp in his right hamstring, and the Yankees made the prudent move of protecting their DH. In came Swisher; out went Matsui. Yankee fans just sat back and shook their heads. While this team is, on average, not that old, their key pieces are mostly on the wrong side of 30, and it’s beginning to show.
Already, this year, in addition to Nady and the two catchers, the Yankees have played for an extended period of time without their All-Star third baseman, their left-handed set-up reliever, their right-handed set-up reliever, and their back-up infielder. Their other left-handed reliever — Phil Coke — is battling a sore back, and their number two starter wasn’t up to strength after suffering a freak accident last June.
For a $200 million team, it’s hard to make excuses. After all, if the Yankees are investing so much into their starters, shouldn’t they have a viable Plan B for when the starters go down? Last night, in the comments to Joe’s game recap, a few of us got into a discussion about the Yankees bench. Some fans claim Brian Cashman didn’t build enough depth into the team. Others — as I do — feel that the Yanks have suffered through more injuries than any GM would expect and that it is impossible to have a Plan B that replaces a third of your team.
This debate hinges on the bench and its proper place on the Yanks. When the season started, the Yankees’ bench was projected to include Melky Cabrera or Brett Gardner, Nick Swisher or Xavier Nady, Jose Molina and Cody Ransom. Swisher or Nady would provide the pinch-hitting pop. Gardner and Melky would be the late-inning defensive specialists or, in Gardner’s case, the speed off the bench. Molina would more than adequately back up Posada with stellar defense, and Ransom would ride the pine while spelling Jeter and A-Rod. The best laid plans, indeed.
Six weeks into the season, the bench now resembles a list of never-will-bes and has-beens. Francisco Cervelli and Kevin Cash are the team’s two catchers. Brett Gardner plays sparingly. Angel Berroa and Ramiro Peña are the go-to infielders of last resort. Injuries will decimate any team, and the Yankees are no exception.
Should Brian Cashman, then, be held responsible? He could have had Mark DeRosa for $5.5 million or Mark Grudzielanek, say the detractors. But the truth is that these players aren’t bench players. DeRosa starts for the Indians, and Grudzielanek wants a starting job. For all of their money, the Yankees can’t shell out $10 million or more for guys who will, in an ideal world, play once or twice a week.
A bench is a bench because these players aren’t starters. If they could play every day, they would be somewhere else, making more money and enjoying more playing time. That’s just a fact of baseball life.
But — and this is a significant but — the Yankees are not a young team, and it’s showing. Matsui, Damon, Jeter, A-Rod, Posada and Molina are all well past 30. So are Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte and A.J. Burnett. While the Yanks have some young players, they are a team relying on age, and age breaks down.
Over the next few years, the Yanks will have some opportunities to shed age. Pettitte, Damon and Matsui are free to go this year, and Jeter faces a controversial free agency the year after. Posada is under contract through 2011, and Mo through next season.
With these potential departures, the Yankees have to find a way to get younger. They have A-Rod until he’s past 40, and Teixeira and Sabathia into their late 30′s. As long as these older players are still here and still getting paid $20 million, the Yankees will face the dangers of age-related injuries. Pulled hamstrings and sore obliques are here to stay, and maybe the Yankees should think about spending more to beef up Plan B and C in the coming seasons. Otherwise, age will make it difficult for the team to win.
Wang goes six strong in rehab start
Posted by: | CommentsThree years ago today on DotF, Jimmy Conroy & Rolando Japa combined for a near perfect game in game two of Low-A Charleston’s doubleheader with Rome, allowing just a single to the first batter of the game.
Meet the Stephen Strasburg of Division II, courtesy of longtime RABer Eric Sanlnocencio.
Triple-A Scranton (1-0 loss to Charlotte) they’ll get to face Jose Contreras tomorrow
Doug Bernier, Eric Duncan & Justin Leone: all 0 for 4 – Bernier K’ed once, Leone twice … Leone also committed a throwing error… E-Dunc is 1 for May and has a .051 OPS this month … yes, OPS
Todd Linden & Luis Nunez: both 1 for 3 – Linden drew a free pass & swiped a bag
Juan Miranda & Austin Jackson: both 1 for 4 – Ajax K’ed
Chris Malec: 0 for 3, 1 BB
Chris Stewart: 0 for 2, 2 BB
Chien-Ming Wang: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K, 7-4 GB/FB – 49 of 82 pitches were strikes (59.8%) … check out Chad Jennings’ site for a breakdown on how he looked
Anthony Claggett: 3 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 3-3 GB/FB – 28 of 46 pitches were strikes (60.9%)
Game 32 Spillover Thread II
Posted by: | CommentsOne last thread for the comeback win and postgame celebration.
Game 32 Spillover Thread
Posted by: | CommentsThree run deficit? They’ll be lucky to get that many hits the rest of the game.
Game 32: A weak lineup vs. a strong pitcher
Posted by: | CommentsThe Yankees are facing Roy Halladay today, and on a good day, that’s a tough proposition. Today, though, is seemingly not a very good day for the Yankees. Derek Jeter is out with what is being called a pulled oblique; Kevin Cash is taking his first Yankee swings today; and Brett Gardner is in the lineup for Nick Swisher. Ouch.
Outside of the weak Yankee lineup, the pitching match-up has provided fodder for thought. A.J. Burnett is making his first start in Toronto since opting out of his contract last winter, and he’s facing his ground ball-tossing mentor Halladay. Burnett is off to a rocky start with the Yanks. He may be 2-0 but his 5.26 ERA is none too impressive. Since winning his first two outings, he’s gone 0-0 with a 6.66 ERA. How devilish.
Roy Halladay is doing what Roy Halladay does best. He has a league-leading six wins and a 3.29 ERA. He’s allowed just one walk per start and has a 2.36 ground out-to-fly out ratio. That’s a flat-out Wangian number right there.
The Blue Jays meanwhile are in first place atop the AL East, and this is their first game against an intra-division rival. Joe profiled the Blue Jays earlier today.
Gardner CF
Damon LF
Teixeira 1B
Rodriguez 3B
Matsui DH
Cano 2B
Cabrera RF
Cash C
Pena SS
Burnett P
Injury Notes: Ian Kennedy had his aneurysm surgery today. He will take six-to-eight weeks off before throwing…Brian Bruney threw with no problems yesterday. He will toss from a mound tomorrow and could be off on a rehab assignment within a week…Chien-Ming Wang is pitching tonight for Scranton. You can follow the action and watch the game via MiLB.com. While the Yankees would love to get him back into the rotation, Brian Cashman has said that Wang will not be rushed. The Yanks want him strong, healthy and effective before activating him.
Just 21 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.
