Archive for May, 2009

One of the early-season concerns regarding Mariano Rivera was his reduced velocity. Coming off shoulder surgery, this was not a good sign. Sure, Mo needed to build arm strength and get used to the day to day activities of a relief pitcher, but at what point does the fanbase start to worry?

If anyone had any concerns, yesterday should have alleviated them. Gone were the 89-90 mph fastballs we saw in April and early May. In their stead were 92-93 mph versions, the ones we’ve grown used to seeing over the years. Only one pitch registered below 92 mph (91 mph), and two pitches hit 94 mph. In other words, as in many seasons past, the reports of Mo’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.

Here’s the leadoff batter from Mo’s appearance Thursday night vs. the leadoff batter yesterday:

So things seem to be back in order. At the end of last year, when he was saving Mike Mussina’s 20th win, Mo was hitting 94-95, but the 2 mph difference isn’t really a concern now. Nevermind that after a few more appearances he could be hitting that again. But when you have command like Mo, you can succeed even if you’re pitching 89-91.

Part of the reason people grew concerned with Mo this year isn’t only because of his shoulder surgery. Since 2004 or 2005 we’ve had an annual Mo scare, where he pitches poorly for a stretch, usually early on, and people wonder if this is finally the year where he becomes human. That did not happen last year. He had a poor stretch, but it was only about two games, and those were easy to overlook considering his dominance before and after. This amplified things a bit this year, especially because two of his blown saves came against division rivals. It looks like things are reverting to normal, which is not good news for the rest of the league.

Categories : Death by Bullpen
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May
11

Is Melky’s hot start for real?

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Melky walk-off homerIn a season in which it seems that everything that could go wrong has gone wrong for the Yanks, one of the few bright spots has been Melky Cabrera. RAB’s favorite whipping boy has shown off some newfound plate discipline en route to taking the everyday center field job from the obviously overmatched Brett Gardner. But Melky’s teased us before. Just last year he hit .299-.370-.494 in April before sliding to .235-.281-.300 the rest of the season. Why should we think that this season will be any different?

Well, for starters there’s that new plate discipline. Melky has seen just over four pitches per plate appearance (4.09 to be exact) in 2009 after seeing between 3.65 and 3.67 P/PA over the last three years (props for the consistency). He’s seeing more pitches because he’s swinging at less pitches, and in fact he’s swinging less than he ever has at any point in his career. Here, check it out:

Swing Rate

First of all, remember to click on the graph for a larger view, just like every other graph in the history of RAB. Secondly, all this data comes from Melky’s player page at FanGraphs. Thirdly, you can see that Melk is on a three year trend of swinging at fewer and fewer pitches. The most important thing is that he isn’t hacking at as many pitches out of the zone, and as anyone who’s watched him swing at a ball at his eyes for strike three knows, those are the most frustrating swings. Unsurprisingly, Melky’s walk rate this year is a career best 11.0%, an increase of nearly 33% from his career walk rate.

But taking more pitches out of the zone isn’t just about drawing more walks however, it also means that Melky has been putting himself in more good counts to hit in. He’s worked a 2-0 count in 17.6% of his plate appearances this year, and a 3-1 count 12.1% of the time. Last year those numbers were just 16.1% and 7.7%, respectively. There’s more to this than just taking pitches, though. Making contact when the Melkster has swung also has something to do with it. Let’s have a look:

Contact Rate

Melky’s always had a knack for getting the bat on the ball, the reason why he’s always posted well below average strikeout rates (career K% = 13.1%, lg avg over the last four years is around 19.0%). This year though, Melky’s making less contact on pitches that are out of the zone. That means fewer weak grounders on pitches down and fewer pop ups to the infield on pitches up. The combination of taking more pitches out of the zone and not making as much contact on those you do swing at appears to have worked out well for the Melkman so far. Now, is this a significant, and more importantly a sustainable skill? I have absolutely no friggin’ idea, so it’s something we’ll have to monitor throughout the year.

Looking around at the rest of his numbers, Melky’s BABIP is a little high at .354 (.298 career), but it’s not absurdly high like Kevin Youkilis’ AL leading .446 BABIP. That’ll regress some, but it shouldn’t drop to the point that he becomes totally useless with the stick again. His line drive percentage is through the roof at 24.6%, far above his career mark of 18.9%. That will certainly come down as the season goes on, sapping a little production. I don’t think anyone was expecting Melk to remain a .937 OPS player the rest of the year, but we’re all hoping that he doesn’t turn back into the .641 OPS player he was last year.

Obviously this post gets all sorts of small sample size warnings. The season is just thirty-one games old and Melky has started just twenty of those games, so we’re really going out on a limb here. The good news is tha Melky’s improved plate discipline isn’t isolated to just 2009; he had a 12.3% walk rate in winter ball this past offseason, which is apparently part of the reason why the Yanks didn’t acquire Mike Cameron. I’m cautiously optimistic that Melky’s taken a step in the right direction, and is on his way to becoming a league average, or even (gasp!) above-average Major League center fielder. He is only 24, after all.

Photo Credit: Frank Franklin, AP

Categories : Analysis
Comments (86)

Toronto Blue JaysBlue Jays Daze

In terms of series, the Jays split the 2-game series with LAA and CLE, and each time they came up with at least one 10+ run game. The 3-game series against Oakland series was a won the Jays (2-1). There was nothing particularly different about this week for the Jays, as they put up 45 runs during the week for a 6.5 run per game average. This average was achieved despite the Jays meeting their match in Jered Weaver, and I’m sure other teams will pour over his outing to see how he was able to 3 hit this offense while allowing only 1 run in a complete game gem.

Throughout the week, the key to their offensive effectiveness continued to be hitting throughout the lineup. Each day or night it seemed that all except maybe 1 or 2 guys were getting their hits, and most of them with men on base. Lind, Overbay, and Hill had really strong weeks, while Snider went 2 for 4 four times this week to help out his average. Overall, the offense continued to clobber opposing pitching and was supplemented by very effective pitching.

The bullpen, however, had a horrible start to the week, with Camp, League, and Carlson allowing 3 runs a piece. Rookie Bret Cecil turned in two excellent outings and may have forced Cito to give him another look instead of calling up the now healthy Casey Janssen. He threw 6 innings with 1 ER and 6 Ks in his first outing against a very good CLE lineup, and followed it up with an 8 inning game with 5 hits allowed, no earned runs, 2 walks and 6 Ks.

Most notable for the Jays this week was how efficiently the starting pitching was able to pitch. Monday and Tuesday’s outings by the pen must have really scared the starters into lasting longer into the games, because from then on they went over 7 innings with only 1 ER four times, with only Robert Ray lasting 6.1 innings. What did this mean for the suddenly unconfident pen? Well, from Wednesday to Sunday they pitched a total of 6.2 innings, with only 68 pitches thrown by 5 guys. So as we head into the following week, we have a fresh pen, extremely confident starting pitching, 3 more starters ready to return when needed (Romero, Purcey, and Janssen), and an offense that just seems to keep clicking.

Week’s Record: 4-3

Season Record: 22-12

Injuries: Michael Barrett (Shoulder), Jesse Litsch (Right Forearm – cleared to resume throwing), Shaun Marcum (Elbow), Dustin McGowan (Labrum), Ricky Romero (Threw in Single A May 8th), BJ Ryan (Throwing in HiA Dunedin), Casey Janssen (made 3 starts in HiA Dunedin).

This Week: Tue-Thu NEW YORK; Fri-Sun CHICAGO
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Categories : AL East Roundup
Comments (34)

Before we get to this week’s recap, I want to point out some recent additions to our Commenting Guidelines:

10. Do not post the same comment in multiple threads. If you post something just before a game thread is closed, feel free to repeat it in the spillover thread, but do not abuse the privilege. Any repeat comments will be deleted, and if you continue to repost comments you’ll be banned.

11. Do not post false breaking news. This is a zero tolerance item. You will be banned immediately if you are caught making up information. Breaking news should be emailed to one or all of use so we can start a thread with a new post.

Thanks for continuing to make RAB the best blog community out there.

Record Last Week: 2-5 (30 RS, 40 RA)
Season Record: 15-16 (172 RS, 193 RA), 5.5 GB
Opponents This Week: @ Toronto (3 games), vs. Minnesota (3 games)

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results

Categories : Polls
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Twenty minutes ago, Jonathan Papelbon struck out Carl Crawford to seal a Red Sox victory over the Rays. By putting two runners on, Papelbon made it exciting, but he rebounded to strike out Carlos Peña, B.J. Upton and Crawford to end the game.

In celebration, the Red Sox closer pumped his first, not once, not twice, but three times. He’s just having fun, said former Mets GM Steve Phillips a minute or two later as the ESPN team wrapped up their broadcast.

Flashback to Friday night in Baltimore. With the Yanks up 4-0, the first two Orioles hitters in the bottom of the ninth reach base. CC Sabathia digs deep to end the game by striking out Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and Melvin Mora, the meat of Baltimore’s lineup. The big man does a fist pump. It’s his second complete game in pinstripes and his first shutout of the season.

Today, though, the Yankees experienced a different twist on the fist pump. Joba Chamberlain, pitching through his now-routine first inning troubles, allows a three-run home run to the Orioles’ clean-up hitter Aubrey Huff. As Huff slowly circles the bases, he fist-pumps toward Joba and then does it again in front of the Orioles dugout.

That Huffian fist pump becomes the story of the game. When will Joba retaliate, wonders the YES Network announcers. Who will he hit, they ask. When Huff steps up to the plate a few innings later, nothing happens, and that trend continues through the game. Joba goes six innings, is involved in no incidents and walks away with a win.

As the game unfolds, reaction comes in from all other. Kimberly Jones chimes in during the game:

Last year, an Oriole who shall remain nameless said he would WALK around the bases if he hit a home run against Joba. Today in the Orioles clubhouse, a few players wanted to know why Joba pumped his fist Tuesday against the Red Sox when his team was losing. (As if we know.) And so, Aubrey Huff hits a home run and makes sure to pump his fist as he rounds first and as he crosses home. Hmmm.

After the game, Joba and Aubrey say all the right things. “I honestly didn’t see it,” the Yanks’ hurler said. “He did what he was supposed to do with the pitch. He hit a home run. If he wants to do a backflip, he can do a backflip. It doesn’t bother me.”

“He’s done it a couple of times to me when he’s struck me out,” Huff explained.”For me, it’s just in good fun. I always told the guys that if I get him, I’m going to give him a nice fist pump. For me, it wasn’t really showing anybody up. I was just trying to have some fun with it. He does it all the time and I figured you know what, why not?”

Huff defended his actions and made a good point in doing so. “He does that stuff all the time as a pitcher, so I was just having a little fun with him out there,” Huff said. “That’s just part of the game. You get excited in situations like that. I wasn’t showing anybody up. I was just having a good time. If you want to do that stuff, you got to expect the hitters to get you, too.”

Within baseball, the fist pump engenders a lot of discussion. Mostly, the players take it in stride. They recognize what adrenaline does and how different people cope with the rush of the game in different ways. Not everyone is as stoic as Mariano or as demonstrative as Joba, but those who show emotion in the macho world of sports can always expect it to get shoved down their throats when they fail.

Now, tonight, Yankee fans were dismayed to hear Peter Gammons preaching against Joba’s fist pump while praising the enthusiasm of the Red Sox. You know what though? It doesn’t matter. What Gammons says, what Steve Phillips says, what Bryan Hoch says in trying to maintain suspense for the next Huff-Chamberlain showdown — none of that matters.

When the dust settled today, Joba Chamberlain and the Yankees walked away with a win. That’s what counts, and if the Orioles want to demonstrate on the field, they’ll walk away knowing who won the game. You can bet your bottom dollar that Aubrey Huff would trade all the fist pumps in the world for that W, and this weekend, it belonged to the Yanks.

Categories : Analysis
Comments (124)

Xavier Nady, suffering from a partially torn elbow ligament, will begin hitting drills on Friday. These exercises will be a true bellwether for Nady. If the Yanks’ outfielder can swing without completely rupturing the ligament or feeling more pain, then he and the Yanks can begin thinking about rehab. Nady has been undergoing a platelet-rich plasma injection regime in the hopes of avoiding Tommy John surgery. If he responds well to the baseball exercises, he feels he could start a rehab assignment on Monday, May 25 with mid-June as a possible return date. He would probably just DH for the rest of the season.

Categories : Asides, Injuries
Comments (44)

A lot of RAB readers and commenters requested an open thread/game thread for the Red Sox/Rays game yesterday. While we didn’t oblige yesterday, we will today. So feel free to use this thread as a catch-all for anything you want.

The Red Sox and Josh Beckett’s 6.75 ERA are hosting the Rays and Matt Garza tonight, and it should be a good one. The Rays crushed the Sox yesterday and face another pitcher with an inflated ERA tonight. Carlos Peña is not in the starting nine for the Rays, and Julio Lugo is no longer DHing or playing short. Will this finally be the Game David Ortiz hits a home run?

The lineups come to us via Extra Bases.

Red Sox
1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
3. David Ortiz, DH
4. Jason Bay, LF
5. Mike Lowell, 3B
6. J.D. Drew, RF
7. Jeff Bailey, 1B
8. Jason Varitek, C
9. Nick Green, SS

Rays
1. B.J. Upton, CF
2. Carl Crawford, LF
3. Evan Longoria, 3B
4. Pat Burrell, DH
5. Willy Aybar, 1B
6. Ben Zobrist, RF
7. Akinori Iwamura, 2B
8. Jason Bartlett, SS
9. Dioner Navarro, C

Have fun and behave yourselves. Happy Mother’s Day to all of the RAB mothers out there as well.

Categories : Game Threads
Comments (252)

Through six innings today the Yanks offense again looked despicable. Things started off fine, with Mark Teixeira staking Joba Chamberlain to an early lead with a solo blast. Until the seventh inning they managed five hits, but none of them came with men on base. They wasted leadoff hits in two frames, and a one-out double in another. With the Orioles out to a 3-1 lead and given how games have been going lately, things didn’t look too bright for the Yanks.

Then came the seventh. Orioles manager Dave Trembley removed his starter after 94 pitches, despite his five strikeouts and zero walks. Robinson Cano made him pay. After a long at bat in which reliever Jamie Walker struck out Nick Swisher, Cano put the Yanks within one on a solo jack to right. After a quick out by Melky Cabrera, Trembley again went to his bullpen for someone to face…Francisco Cervelli. Why he felt the need to play match-up right there is beyond my comprehension, but it’s his team and he knows it best. It might have been the best move to make at the time, but it didn’t turn out that way.

On a 2-1 pitch, Cervelli dinked one toward second, which looked like the third out. If it had been Jorge Posada at bat, it surely would have been. But Cervelli put on the jets, getting to first base perhaps faster than any catcher I’ve seen, at least recently. Then, three pitches later, Derek Jeter bounced a similarly weak-hit ball to third, and he too beat it out for a single. That set the table for J-Dizzle, who instead of slapping a single to tie the game thought it best to give his team the lead for the first time in almost six innings. To the alley in right center it went, clearing the fence and giving the Yanks all the runs they’d need.

Damon has truly been a bright spot during an otherwise dismal week in Yankeeland. He hit in every game during the 2-5 stretch, hitting to a .419 average (13 for 31) with four doubles and five homers. True, this was the only win he brought the team, but the past week would have felt a lot worse without his heroics which turned lost causes into actual contests. Let’s try to remember this stretch when Johnny hits a slump later in the year. The guy comes to play, and this week he did more than anyone could have expected of him.

Things started off a bit rocky on the pitching end, almost exactly as they did in Joba’s previous start against the Red Sox. He allowed three runs in the first, all coming on an Aubrey Huff homer. Not only did he blow the lead, but he used 25 pitches in doing so. For a guy who cuts his appearances short due to inefficiency, this was not a good sign. Basically a quarter of his pitch allotment was gone after the first, meaning he’d have to ramp up the efficiency in the ensuing frames just to get through the fifth.

He looked to recover, throwing just 12 pitches in the second, but he got a bit wild in the third, walking two and throwing 20 pitches. Even then, he was aided by the pitcher’s best friend. It took 16 pitches to get through the fourth, but Joba did it in commendable fashion, putting away two Orioles while men stood on second and third. I do wonder, though, if Melky hadn’t made the throw to third and Andino’s at bat yielded the same result (beware the fallacy of the predetermined outcome), would Jeter have had the wherewithal to drop the ball and try for the double play? The ball got there a bit quicker than a grounder, so I think he could have turned it if he just knocked it down.

In the end Joba did get through six on just 104 pitches, amazing considering his 25- and 20-pitch frames early on. He entered the sixth inning with 92 pitches, so it was in doubt that he’d finish things out. Maybe Girardi would have let him go the 108 mark he achieved on Tuesday, or maybe 110 would have been the hard cap. It didn’t matter, though. Despite a Felix Pie single, Joba still got the job one on 12 pitches to complete the nominal quality start. He left matters to the bullpen, which hasn’t been the most optimistic prospect lately.

Well, that is, except when it involves Phil Coke. The man throws strikes, something his bullpen brethren should take note of. His efficient ways allowed him to toss two innings with just 25 pitches, surrendering just one hit and striking out one. That set the stage for Mo, who walked his first batter of the year but still came away with his sixth save. It was a relief to see the O’s go down rather futilely, given Mo’s last appearance. All in all it was a good win, though again the lows from last night made the first six innings tough to watch.

The Yanks get a day off tomorrow before heading up to Toronto, so it was an especially nice win. Apparently Tuesday night’s game is a big ticket up north, with the master taking on the apprentice, Roy Halladay vs. A.J. Burnett. Given how Doc has pitched against the Yanks in his career, Burnett had better also pitch the way he’s pitched against the Yanks. This series could go a long way in knocking Toronto down a peg or two and leveling the playing field of the AL East.

Categories : Game Stories
Comments (51)

Make sure you scroll down for today’s game thread and news about Chien-Ming Wang’s next start.

Triple-A Scranton (3-0 loss to Louisville in 11 innings, walk-off style)
Doug Bernier: 1 for 5, 1 K
Eric Duncan, Todd Linden, John Rodriguez, Chris Malec & PJ Pilittere: all 0 for 4 - E-Dunc K’ed thrice … Linden, J-Rod & Malec each K’ed once
Juan Miranda: 0 for 2, 1 BB, 1 K - picked off second
Austin Jackson: 2 for 4 - 5 for his last 11 (.455) … threw a runner out at second from LF
Luis Nunez: 1 for 4, 1 2B, 1 CS
The Ghost of Kei Igawa: 8 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 7-14 GB/FB – 68 of 99 pitches were strikes (68.7%)
David Robertson: 2.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 1-3 GB/FB - 24 of 41 pitches were strikes (58.5%)
Mark Melancon: 0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K – 2 of 5 pitches were strikes (40%) … served up a walk-off homer to one of the Reds’ better prospects

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Categories : Down on the Farm
Comments (38)
May
10

Sterling: Wang to start at AAA

Posted by: | Comments (9)

According to John Sterling, Chien-Ming Wang will make his next rehab start at AAA on Tuesday. My guess is that if Wang has a good outing, he’ll replace Phil Hughes in the rotation next weekend. With a day off on Monday, the Yankees will need five starters this week before Wang is ready. If Wang isn’t sharp for Scranton, he’ll stay there on his rehab assignment.

Categories : Asides, Injuries
Comments (9)