Archive for May, 2009
You lose some, you win some back
Posted by: | Comments
The WPA graph from last night’s game, via FanGraphs, is one roller coaster of a baseball game. It certainly mirrors my up-and-down emotions from the day, but there’s more to this story than just exciting baseball.
In fact, this story starts last weekend in Boston. In back-to-back games last weekend, the Yankees had nearly wrapped up their games, according to WPA, only to see everything fall apart. On Friday, in the top of the 9th with a threat brewing, the Yanks’ win probability hit 96.8 percent. In the bottom of the inning with a two outs a runner on, the Yanks win the game 94.7 percent of the time. Those hopes ended with a Jason Bay home run in the 9th, and a Kevin Youkilis blast two innings later.
On Saturday, the Yanks suffered through a similar experience, albeit earlier in the game. Up 6-0 in the 4th, the Yanks’ win expectancy stood at 94.1 percent. After A.J. Burnett and the bullpen imploded, though, the time found itself on the wrong end of an ugly 16-11 game.
Friday’s story was a bit different. While the Yanks jumped out to a quick start, by the time the Angels took a 9-4 lead in the 7th, the Yanks’ hopes had all but dimmed. Their win expectancy after the Angels plated their ninth run was just 3.3 percent. The Yanks fought back with four in the 8th and two in the 9th to win. They stole victory from the precipice of defeat.
This is, then, the perfect example of the way things even out over a 162-game season. Last weekend, Yankee fans were collectively despondent over the two lost opportunities. Last night, the Yanks got one of those back. It may seem less urgent because the Yanks and Red Sox weren’t locked in battle, but as the Sox did last Friday, the Yanks won a game last night that, in my cases, they just don’t win.
With Boston’s loss in Tampa, the Yanks and Sox are separated by just one game. Considering the Sox’s 11-game winning streak and the Yanks’ uneven play so far, I’ll gladly take it.
A conspiracy theory and A-Rod’s delayed return
Posted by: | CommentsFor the last few weeks, we’ve heard numerous rumblings of an earlier-than-expected return to the lineup by A-Rod, and earlier this week, even A-Rod’s doctor admitted that the Yanks’ May 15th date seemed far too conservative. A-Rod, he said, could return by next weekend. Now, though, it appears as though the club is tempering those lofty expectations.
Joe Girardi told the Daily News’ Roger Rubin that the team doesn’t want to rush back its rehabbing superstar. While it would be great to get A-Rod back for the Baltimore series, the team sounds very hesitant about playing A-Rod in Toronto on artificial turf. So we may wait until the Twins arrive in tow for A-Rod.
And so here’s where my conspiracy theory comes into play. Because of a leak, Selena Roberts’ publishers are releasing her book on Monday. If A-Rod comes back on Friday, he will arrive amidst a storm over the gossip-filled tome. If the Yanks wait until May 15th, the 11 days should be long enough for everyone to forget about the book. A-Rod, while not in the clear, wouldn’t be the main detraction. Don’t believe me? Just ask Joe Torre. After two weeks, his book was old news.
Damon wants to remain a Yank
Posted by: | CommentsWell aware of his impending free agency, Johnny Damon said he wants to remain with the Yankees next season. From Andrew Marchand:
“I know where I want to be next year,” Damon told 1050 ESPN New York. “I want to be here in New York. I also know New York has a lot of young outfielders coming back. Austin Jackson is in the wings. At least, in this situation, I know my chances of coming back could be slim because of the young talent the Yankees do have.”
First off all, kudos to Damon for knowing Austin Jackson’s name. I’d guess that 90% of all big leaguers couldn’t name their club’s top prospect. Secondly, the Yankees have a very unsettled outfield situation next year. Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner will presumably be around, but beyond them the only established big leaguer under contract is Nick Swisher. Brian Cashman has made it very well known that he would like the team to get younger and more athletic, however it’s hard to imagine the $200M Yankees trotting any two of Melky, Gardner and Jackson into the outfield everyday, especially since all three should be expected to provide below average production given their track record, skill set, and inexperience, respectively.
Damon has been very productive during his three-plus seasons with the Yankees, hitting .287-.363-.450 while playing acceptable defense in center and damn near Gold Glove caliber defense in left. Despite his seemingly fragile nature, Damon has played in at least 140 games for thirteen consecutive seasons. He’s a known commodity that’s familiar with New York and by all accounts will come on a short deal, which has tremendous value for a team transitioning towards younger players. There’s just no need to further handcuff the team’s future flexibility by forking over too many dollars over too many years for the decline phases of Matt Holliday or Jason Bay. Damon’s low risk and fits the club’s needs.
Given how the market played out last offseason, the Yanks should obviously decline to offer Johnny arbitration regardless of Type-A or B status because he would garner a raise from his $13M salary this year if/when he accepted. The one year, $5M deal Bobby Abreu signed with the Angels would be an ideal model for a new Damon contract. However we don’t know how the free agent landscape will shape up next year.
The other interesting bit from Marchand’s article concerned Damon’s statement that he considered retiring at one point while with the Yankees. This incident came about during the 2007 when a banged and bruised Damon didn’t know if he still had the drive to play the game. Jon Heyman first discussed this last spring, and Joe Torre Tom Verducci wrote about it in their book. If Damon is already looking forward to 2010, it’s safe to say he has put those doubts long behind him.
Jorge delivers best win of the year
Posted by: | Comments
Andy Pettitte, Friday’s starting pitcher, had the best line of the night. “I was in a pretty bad mood before and now I’m in a good mood,” Pettitte said to the gaggle of Yankee reporters after the game.
Perhaps without realizing it, Pettitte spoke for all of us as the Yankees scored four in the 8th and two in the 9th to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. The 10-9 win was the Yanks’ fourth victory in a row, and the Bombers suddenly find themselves just a game behind Boston and two behind the Blue Jays.
The game didn’t start out with that bad mood though. While Pettitte put two runners on in top of the first — a common theme throughout the evening — the Yanks plated four in the bottom of the first. Two walks, a sac fly, a Robinson Cano single and a Jorge Posada home run would give the Yanks a lead that would hold up for four more innings.
As the game progressed, though, the Yanks seemed to be playing with fire. Pettitte put a runner on in the second, three in the third, one in the fourth and one in the fifth. Somehow, none of these Angels came around to score, but in the sixth, Pettitte would not be so lucky.
Torii Hunter and Mike Napoli both singled to start the inning, and I figured Joe Girardi would go to the bullpen. He did not. While Andy got two quick outs on a ground ball and a strike out, he gave up hits to Jeff Mathis and Erick Aybar and then walked Chone Figgins. With two outs, the bases loaded and the Yanks’ lead down to two, Joe Girardi summoned a pitcher making just his third Major League appearance. Even Joba had to earn his way into high-leverage situations.
Mark Melancon quickly surrendered the lead. He gave up a bases clearing triple to Gary Matthews and allowed Matthews to score on a wild pitch. In the span of two batters, the Yanks found themselves down 6-4, and Pettitte’s final line — 5.2 IP, 9H, 5 ER, 4 BB and 2 K — was hardly impressive.
The game continued to slip away in the 7th. Jose Veras retired but one batter and gave up three runs. The Yanks, down 9-4, would have to come back against the only bullpen in the Majors worse than theirs.
Well, comeback they did. The Yanks scored four in the 8th, and after a crisp 1-2-3 inning from Jonathan Albaladejo, the eventually winner, they went to work against Brian Fuentes in the 9th. Mark Teixeira walked, Hideki Matsui singled, and Robinson Cano singled. With the bases loaded, Jorge Posada lined a 3-2 pitch into the left-center field gap for a walk-off, two-run single. All was right with the world.
Of course, the Yanks had a few scares tonight. Nick Swisher is a day-to-day with a bruised right elbow after taking a first-inning Jered Weaver offering off his arm. The bullpen went 3.2 innings and gave up four runs, and I will maintain that sticking Melancon into a situation like tonight’s so soon into his career may not have been Joe Girardi’s most prudent move. But the Yanks won, and that’s what counts. They’ll aim for five in a row at 1:05 p.m. when CC Sabathia takes the hill.
Above: Jorge ends the game. (Photo via Yahoo! Sports)
Tampa falls despite another Montero homer
Posted by: | CommentsUpdate by Ben (12:02 a.m.): Juan Miranda is not on his way to the Bronx. He simply had an upset stomach, per Chad Jennings. The Yanks, however, may be shuffling the bullpen shortly.
Scroll down for tonight’s game thread.
Triple-A Scranton (14-7 loss to Norfolk)
Luis Nunez: 0 for 5, 1 K
John Rodriguez & Eric Duncan: both 0 for 4 – J-Rod drew a walk & K’ed twice … E-Dunc K’ed & committed a fielding error
Todd Linden & Austin Jackson: both 1 for 4, 2 R – Linden drew a walk & K’ed twice … Ajax drove in a run
Shelley Duncan: 2 for 4, 2 R, 2 2B, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K – dude is en fuego … he’s 16 for his last 45 (.356) with 4 doubles & 5 homers
Juan Miranda: 0 for 1, 1 E (fielding) – was lifted from the game for an unknown reason in the 4th … he’s probably on his way up to give the Yanks an extra position player in case Swisher needs to take a few days off with the bum elbow
Carlos Mendoza: 1 for 4, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 1 K
Chris Malec: 2 for 4, 1 R, 1 2B, 3 RBI, 1 E (throwing)
PJ Pilittere: 2 for 3, 1 RBI, 1 BB
Jason Stephens: 3.2 IP, 4 H, 8 R, 4 ER, 4 BB, 4 K, 6-1 GB/FB – 42 of 80 pitches were strikes (52.5%) … called up from Tampa to fill one of the stops vacated by Phil Hughes & Ian Kennedy … allowed the best prospect in baseball to reach base all 3 times he faced him
Zach Kroenke: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 3-1 GB/FB – 28 of 45 pitches were strikes (62.2%)
JB Cox: 2.1 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 5-1 GB/FB – 26 of 42 pitches were strikes (61.9%) … well, at least the ground balls are there
Eric Wordekemper: 1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 1-1 GB/FB – 9 of 15 pitches were strikes (60%)
Game 23: April showers bring May wins
Posted by: | Comments
We all knew Mark Teixeira wasn’t going to set the world on fire in April, but I don’t think we expected this. Tex is hitting just .200-.367-.371 and heard a nice chorus of boos last night after grounding into a rally killing double play and striking out looking with the bases juiced and two outs. He has just one extra base hit in his last 51 plate appearances, and that was last night’s double. Luckily Tex hasn’t been a total drain on the offense because of his 17 walks (third in the AL), although the Yanks aren’t shelling out $20M this season for something Marco Scutaro can do.
Now that the calendar has rolled over to May, it’s time for Tex to start heating up and being the player everyone knows he can be. I’m not asking for .350-.450-.650, but .280-.370-.530 (roughly his career line) would be nice. The Yanks have scored the fourth most runs in baseball this year; just imagine what it’ll be like once Tex starts hitting and A-Rod comes back.
The lineup:
Jeter, SS
Damon, LF
Teixeira, 1B
Matsui, DH
Cano, 2B
Posada, C
Swisher, RF
Melky, CF
Pena, 3B
And on the mound, the Crazy Boring Old Texan, Andy Pettitte.
Photo Credit: Reuters Pictures
Foley’s opens Irish Hall of Fame voting up to the fans
Posted by: | CommentsLast year, Foley’s, the excellent sports bar with a huge autographed baseball collection on 33rd St. between 5th and 6th Aves., unveiled its Irish Baseball Hall of Fame. While Yankee great announcer John Flaherty earned an induction into the first class, the bar fielded numerous complaints from fans who wanted to get involved. Today, Foley’s introduced fan voting for the 2009 inductee. Adam Dunn, Al Leiter, Paul O’Neill, Joe McEwing and Nolan Ryan make up the field. I voted for Paul O’Neill. All of those fans who got so defensive over LaTroy Hawkins’ number flap last year should do the same.
The Yanks’ $40-million mistakes
Posted by: | CommentsLast night in Scranton, Kei Igawa took the hill for the AAA Yankees. In typical Kei Igawa fashion, he threw 5.1 innings and gave up 7 hits and 5 earned runs. He allowed a home run — his ninth long ball of the season and managed just a 4/6 ground ball to fly ball ratio.
For Igawa, it was yet another in a line of mediocre-to-terrible AAA starts. On the season, the Kei Man is 2-0 but with a 6.75 ERA. In 21.1 innings, he has allowed 23 hits but has walked four while striking out 11. His 0.60 GB/FB ratio is destined to keep him at AAA for at least this year and next.
It’s clear today that Kei Igawa is one of the worst free agent signings of the last five years. He is no longer on the Yanks’ 40-man roster and is probably 9th or 10th on the team’s starting pitching depth charts. Last year, he threw just 4 innings in the bigs, and I expect that to be 4 more than he pitches this year for the Yanks.
So the Yankees, in Igawa, have a mistake. They paid $26 million to the Hanshin Tigers for what has amounted to a pitching lemon, and Igawa, earning $4 million a year, is probably the highest paid AAA pitcher in the history of the game. He is, by the way, under contract through the 2011 season.
Meanwhile, later tonight, another Yankee mistake is going to take the mound, albeit far, far away from the Bronx. In Detroit, the 0-3 Carl Pavano is going to take his 9.50 ERA to the hill as the Indians face off against the Tigers. We all know Pavano’s story. He had a career year in Florida right before free agency and landed with the Yankees after a four-team bidding war. He then went 9-8 in 26 starts spread out over four seasons and walked away with a 5.00 ERA, $39.95 million and a less-than-flattering nickname of “American Idle.”
The Indians gave Carl Pavano $1.5 million to pitch for them this year in the hopes that he could rediscover his groove. Outside of one start against the Yankees, ironically enough, Pavano hasn’t done much of anything, and he’s probably nearing the point of pitching for a job.
So as the rain begins to pick up in New York City, I am left not counting down the hours until a Yankeeography-filled rain delay, but rather I am left wondering which of these two pitchers was the worse move. It’s probably safe to say that signing one of them ranks among Brian Cashman‘s worse decisions as GM, but does one take the cake?
RAB Live Chat
Posted by: | Comments
Just 21 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.
